相关研究 证券分析师 2026 年 01 月 25 日 郭中伟 A0230524120004 guozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 地缘紧张避险升温，金属价格强势 看好 ——金属&新材料行业周报 20260119-20260123 本期投资提示： 有色金属 究 / 行 业 点 评 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 行业点评 1．一周行情回顾 据 iFind，总体看，环比上周，上证指数上涨 0.84%，深证成指上涨 1.11%，沪深 300 下跌 0.62%，有色金属（申万）指数上涨 6.03%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 6.65 个百分点； 20 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-ferrous metals industry [6] Core Viewpoints - Liquidity expectations have upgraded, leading to intensified trading. Recent optimistic interest rate cut expectations have resurfaced, driving both precious and industrial metals to break through previous levels. The negative feedback for copper and aluminum has notably weakened, and improvements in the real economy may be observed under high price conditions. Overall, the bullish trend for industrial products remains unchanged under the support of domestic and international policies [3][9] Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Assessment - The cycle assessment indicates an upgrade in liquidity expectations and a continuation of intense trading. The probability of BlackRock executive Riedel being elected as the Federal Reserve Chairman has surged to 54%. The optimistic expectations for interest rate cuts have reignited, pushing precious and industrial metals to new highs. Although copper and aluminum inventories continue to accumulate, the pace of accumulation has slowed, and the negative feedback from downstream processing has significantly diminished, with operating rates beginning to recover [9][13] 2. Industry and Stock Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a weekly increase of 6.03%, ranking fourth among all industries [28]. The precious metals sector experienced the highest gains [21]. 3. Precious Metals - For precious metals, trading has become intensely liquid, awaiting the confirmation of the Federal Reserve Chairman nomination. As of January 23, SHFE gold rose by 8.07% to 1,115.64 CNY per gram, while COMEX gold increased by 7.54% to 4,036.00 USD per ounce. The inventory levels for SHFE gold were 102 tons, an increase of 1.96 tons from the previous week [14][30]. 4. Copper - The copper market is experiencing renewed support due to supply disruptions. As of January 23, SHFE copper rose by 0.57% to 101,340 CNY per ton, and LME copper increased by 2.44% to 13,115 USD per ton. The operating rate for refined copper rods was 67.98%, up by 10.51 percentage points [17][29]. 5. Aluminum - The aluminum market shows signs of demand recovery as negative feedback weakens. As of January 23, SHFE aluminum rose by 1.53% to 24,290 CNY per ton, and LME aluminum increased by 1.12% to 3,169 USD per ton. The processing operating rate rose by 0.7 percentage points to 60.9% [16][85].

公募基金仓位再均衡，周 期行业配置上行 2025年四季度基金季报 研究团队：邓宇林、包承超、肖遥志 报告日期：2026年1月25日 证券研究报告 * 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 摘要 ➢ 1、整体上，公募基金仓位下降，集中度稳定： 公募基金整体仓位小幅下降，而重仓股集中度较为稳定，权重股赚钱效应一般。 板块配置上，创业板配置上升，主板配置下降，科创板配置稳定；对港股的配置回落到16%附近。 ➢ 2.分规模看，公募基金规模、份额再度收缩： 整体上，四季度基金管理规模和份额均回落，其中份额收缩幅度达到10%附近。 各规模基金均从必选消费、TMT切换至周期。 ➢ 3.行业层面： TMT整体减配，电子、计算机、传媒三个行业减配比例均超过1%；通信行业的配置仍在提升，但头部标的的持股数量在减持（增 配主要来自行情上行）； 周期行业整体市场快速上行；有色和化工均明显增配，公募基金仓位开始再均衡； 其他行业，非银、机械的配置比例也明显上升。 ➢ 风险提示：全球地缘政治出现重大变化，导致全球市场风险偏好急剧变化。市场流动性超预期变化。历史数据不代表未来。 1 证券研究报告 * 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 2 证券研究报告 * ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report highlights that copper prices are experiencing high-level fluctuations amidst inventory accumulation, with short-term price adjustments expected to be limited due to the financial attributes of copper supported by rising gold prices. The supply-demand balance for copper may shift from tight equilibrium to shortage in the medium to long term, driven by insufficient capital expenditure in copper mines and frequent supply disruptions. The report suggests monitoring companies such as Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Jiangxi Copper, and others [5] - For aluminum, the report notes that both alumina and aluminum prices are under pressure due to high inventory levels. The short-term outlook for aluminum prices is expected to remain stable amidst high demand, particularly in the air conditioning and consumer goods sectors [5] - Lithium demand remains strong despite seasonal trends, with lithium carbonate prices entering an upward cycle driven by supply-demand reversal. The report recommends focusing on companies with high self-sufficiency in lithium resources [5] - Cobalt prices are expected to continue rising due to tight raw material supply, with the report suggesting companies like Huayou Cobalt and others for investment [5] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The report provides insights into macroeconomic indicators, including the U.S. core PCE price index and unemployment claims, which align with expectations [9] - Key announcements include Zijin Mining's completion of the second phase of the Jilong Copper Mine, significantly increasing its production capacity [10] 2. Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of 6.03% compared to the index's 0.84% rise [11] - The report lists the top-performing stocks in the sector, highlighting significant movements in various sub-sectors [11] 3. Valuation Changes - The report notes that the TTM PE for the non-ferrous metals sector is 33.82, with a change of 1.79, while the PB is 4.18, reflecting a significant premium over the broader market [20][23]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for all key companies listed, including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Huayou Cobalt, among others [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in commodity prices, particularly in precious metals like gold and silver, driven by rising geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns [8][67]. - Industrial metals are expected to see price stability due to improved domestic demand and production adjustments, despite some fluctuations in inventory levels [21][24]. - The energy metals sector, particularly cobalt and nickel, is facing supply constraints, which may lead to price increases in the near future [83]. Industry and Company Performance - The SW Nonferrous Index rose by 6.03% during the week of January 19-23, with precious metals like gold and silver increasing by 8.30% and 14.80%, respectively [8]. - Key companies such as Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum are projected to have strong earnings growth, with EPS estimates for 2024 at 1.21 and 0.63 yuan, respectively [2]. - The report recommends several companies for investment, including Shengtu Mining, China Nonferrous Mining, and Western Mining, based on their strong market positions and growth potential [8]. Base Metals - Aluminum prices are expected to remain under pressure due to high inventory levels, with LME aluminum prices recorded at $3,174 per ton, reflecting a 1.44% increase [13][24]. - Copper prices are influenced by macroeconomic factors, with current prices at $13,128.5 per ton, showing a 2.50% increase [13][38]. - Zinc prices have shown volatility, with LME zinc prices at $3,246.5 per ton, reflecting a 1.17% increase, driven by supply disruptions [43][44]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices have surged due to heightened geopolitical risks, with gold trading at approximately 4,983.10 USD per ounce, an increase of 8.30% [15][67]. - The report emphasizes the long-term bullish outlook for gold prices, supported by central bank purchases and weakening dollar credit [67]. Energy Metals - Cobalt prices are expected to rise due to ongoing supply shortages, with current prices around 432,500 yuan per ton [83]. - Nickel prices are projected to remain high due to production cuts in Indonesia, with current prices at 148,010 yuan per ton [55].

Group 1 - In Q4 2025, active equity funds significantly reduced their holdings in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, while increasing allocations in cyclical and financial value stocks, with consensus on increasing positions in non-ferrous metals and non-bank financials [5][8] - The allocation to technology showed internal differentiation, with AI hardware infrastructure being favored, while TMT, pharmaceuticals, and military industries were reduced [5][8] - The overall market capitalization of active equity funds decreased by 195.65 billion to 3.38 trillion, with stock positions dropping to 84.2%, indicating a shift towards lower valuation and improving cyclical and financial sectors [5][8] Group 2 - The industry allocation saw a comprehensive increase in cyclical financials, with significant increases in non-ferrous metals, communications, non-bank financials, machinery, and basic chemicals, while media, electronics, new energy, pharmaceuticals, and military industries were reduced [5][28] - The allocation to communication equipment was notably increased, driven by AI infrastructure investments, while most technology sectors experienced significant reductions [5][28] - In the consumer sector, essential consumption was reduced, particularly in liquor and feed, while leisure food saw a notable increase [5][28] Group 3 - In the Hong Kong market, active funds significantly reduced their allocations, with a market capitalization decrease of 86 billion to 295.2 billion, and the allocation ratio dropping to 15.6% [5][28] - The funds increased their positions in cyclical and financial sectors, such as insurance, oil, airlines, and non-ferrous metals, while reducing positions in internet and semiconductor leaders [5][28] - The issuance of funds is expected to reach an inflection point, supporting further market growth, with a high percentage of funds achieving positive returns over various time frames [5][28]

- The report focuses on the "CSI Nonferrous Metal Mining Theme Index," which selects 40 listed companies with nonferrous metal mineral reserves as index samples, reflecting the overall performance of nonferrous metal mining-themed listed companies. The index emphasizes upstream mining companies due to their higher profit elasticity and direct benefits from metal price increases. The index is designed to capture the value of upstream resource enterprises and is suitable for investors optimistic about resource cycle trends[27][28][32] - The index adopts a balanced strategy for selecting constituent stocks. It first excludes the bottom 10% of low-liquidity stocks based on daily trading volume, then selects the top three securities from each CSI fourth-level industry based on market capitalization rankings over the past year. If fewer than three securities are available, all are included. Remaining samples are added based on market capitalization rankings until the total reaches 40 stocks. This ensures representation across various resource categories, including gold, aluminum, rare earths, cobalt, lithium, and other strategic metals. The index is adjusted semi-annually in June and December[28][32] - The index's constituent stocks are distributed across four major sectors: industrial metals, energy metals, precious metals, and strategic small metals. This structure aligns with high-demand downstream industries such as new energy, AI computing power, power infrastructure, and semiconductors, enabling precise capture of core investment opportunities across the entire industry chain[7][32][40] - The index's market capitalization distribution is concentrated in large-cap stocks, with 55.61% of the weight allocated to stocks with a market capitalization above 1 trillion RMB. Mid-cap stocks (200-1000 billion RMB) account for 43.09% of the weight, providing effective support. This structure avoids risks associated with small-cap stocks while leveraging the resource barriers of large-cap leaders and capturing growth opportunities in niche sectors[41][46] - The index demonstrates strong performance across various timeframes. Over the past year, its return reached 120.35%, significantly outperforming major broad-based indices like the CSI 300 (24.58%) and the Shanghai Composite Index (27.13%). It also surpassed industry indices such as the SW Nonferrous Metals Index (107.58%). In the medium term, its six-month return was 95.59%, and its three-month return was 28.48%. Short-term performance was equally impressive, with a one-month return of 24.06%[59][62][64]

Core Insights - A total of 710 A-share listed companies have disclosed their 2025 annual performance forecasts, with 284 companies expected to report positive results, resulting in a positive forecast ratio of 40% [1] Group 1: Performance Highlights - Among the 710 companies, 43 reported slight increases, 57 turned losses into profits, 4 maintained profitability, and 180 projected profit increases [2] - 295 companies expect a net profit growth of over 10%, with 237 anticipating over 30%, 183 over 50%, and 67 over 100% [2] - Notable companies with significant expected net profit growth include Southern Precision, Shanghai Yizhong, Jin'an Guoji, Shenzhen Nande A, Limin Co., and SAIC Motor [2] Group 2: Industry Performance - The industries showing strong performance include non-ferrous metals, biomedicine, semiconductors, hardware equipment, chemicals, and automotive parts [3] - In the non-ferrous metals sector, companies like Xianglu Tungsten, Zhenghai Magnetic Materials, Jinli Permanent Magnet, Northern Rare Earth, Chifeng Gold, Zijin Mining, and others have performed well due to rising product prices and improved downstream demand [3][4] Group 3: Specific Company Forecasts - Southern Precision expects a net profit of 300 million to 370 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 1130% to 1417%, primarily due to fair value changes from investments [2] - WuXi AppTec anticipates a revenue of approximately 45.456 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 15.84%, and a net profit of around 19.15 billion yuan, a growth of approximately 102.65% [3] - Xianglu Tungsten forecasts a net profit of 12.5 million to 18 million yuan, significantly turning losses into profits due to improved market conditions and cost control [4] Group 4: Challenges in Certain Industries - The real estate sector is under pressure, with only one out of 31 companies reporting profits, while most are facing significant losses [7] - In the photovoltaic industry, companies like Tongwei Co., TCL Zhonghuan, Trina Solar, JinkoSolar, and LONGi Green Energy are expected to report varying degrees of losses due to rising costs of key raw materials [7]

- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors for analysis, as it primarily focuses on the analysis of active equity funds' holdings, preferences, and structural changes in Q4 2025[3][6][7] - The report provides detailed insights into the number, scale, and allocation preferences of active equity funds, including their industry and sectoral adjustments, but does not include any specific quantitative models or factor construction methodologies[3][6][7] - The analysis highlights the changes in fund holdings and preferences, such as increased allocation to cyclical and financial sectors and reduced allocation to technology and healthcare, but no quantitative models or factors are discussed[44][48][49]

Group 1 - JunDa Co., Ltd. announced that the comprehensive cost-effectiveness of perovskite photovoltaic technology in extreme space environments remains to be verified [2][5] - The company has invested 30 million yuan to acquire a 16.67% stake in Starwing Chip Energy, but no formal business agreement has been signed for space photovoltaic projects [2][5] - The technology shows potential advantages in lightweight, low cost, and high radiation resistance, but long-term reliability and cost-effectiveness in space are still uncertain [2][5] Group 2 - Aotewei stated that the "space photovoltaic" sector is still in the early exploration and research phase, with significant uncertainties in the industrialization process [3] - The company emphasized that product development to commercial application requires a considerable period, and the impact of related positive expectations on actual operating performance is highly uncertain [3] Group 3 - Tongyu Communications announced its participation in the A1 round financing of Beijing Blue Arrow Hongqing Technology, investing 30 million yuan for a 1.8293% stake [3] - The company will transition from direct to indirect ownership of Hongqing Technology through a partnership agreement [3] Group 4 - Huajin Technology received approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission for the issuance of H-shares, planning to issue up to 101,573,100 shares [4] - Trina Solar announced a change in the use of remaining raised funds, reallocating 1.7 billion yuan to a new project for distributed smart photovoltaic power station construction [4][5] Group 5 - Yunnan City Investment plans to publicly transfer a 10.5% stake in Qicai Company with a base price of 293 million yuan [6] - Zijin Mining announced the completion of the second phase of the Giant Dragon Copper Mine, increasing production capacity to 350,000 tons per day [6] Group 6 - Shuaifeng Electric expects a net profit loss of 43 million to 62 million yuan in 2025, with potential delisting risk warnings for its stock [7] - Anqi Yeast plans to invest 222 million yuan in a green manufacturing project for yeast products with an annual output of 12,000 tons [7] Group 7 - Zhengzhou Coal and Electricity announced the cessation of production at the Chaohua Coal Mine due to resource depletion and safety risks, expecting a 311 million yuan impairment loss [8] - Oujing Technology announced partial production line shutdowns at its subsidiaries to reduce losses and operating costs [8] Group 8 - North Car Blue Valley plans to invest in the construction of a high-end platform model industrialization and digital upgrade project with a total investment of 1.991 billion yuan [9] - Jingzhida signed a significant contract worth 1.311 billion yuan for semiconductor testing equipment [9] Group 9 - Yanghe Co. announced a cash dividend plan for 2025-2027, committing to distribute no less than 100% of net profit each year [10] - Yanghe Co. also projected a net profit decline of 62.18% to 68.30% for 2025 due to market adjustments and increased channel inventory [10] Group 10 - Huitong Energy expects a net profit decrease of 69.51% to 75.82% for 2025, primarily due to the absence of non-recurring income from property relocation rewards [11] - Dahua Co. reported a net profit increase of 32.65% for 2025, driven by business optimization and cost control [12] Group 11 - Hangzhou Bank reported a net profit increase of 12.05% for 2025, maintaining a stable non-performing loan ratio [12] - Aotejia expects a net profit increase of 41.85% to 79.67% for 2025, supported by sales growth and cost control measures [12] Group 12 - Shenke Co. anticipates a net profit increase of 65.75% to 98.9% for 2025, benefiting from overseas strategy and revenue growth [13] - Pioneering Technology expects a net profit increase of 50.82% to 109.21% for 2025, driven by product technology iterations and market expansion [13] Group 13 - Shanchuang Technology expects a net profit increase of 81.77% to 134.78% for 2025, fueled by demand for enterprise-level storage products [14] - Anshuo Information anticipates a net profit increase of 52.44% to 98.83% for 2025, with government subsidies contributing to the growth [14] Group 14 - Zhongwei Company expects a net profit increase of 28.74% to 34.93% for 2025, driven by increased customer recognition of its plasma etching equipment [15] - Jingfang Technology anticipates a net profit increase of 44.41% to 52.32% for 2025, benefiting from the automotive industry's growth [16] Group 15 - Fuda Alloy expects a net profit increase of 119.14% to 219.95% for 2025, driven by strong demand in emerging applications [17] - Feirongda anticipates a net profit increase of 57.23% to 83.43% for 2025, supported by stable growth in communication and cooling business [17] Group 16 - Licheng Performing Arts expects a net profit decrease of 12.75% to 32.21% for 2025, impacted by regional travel environment fluctuations [22] - Lisheng Pharmaceutical anticipates a net profit increase of 116.77% to 138.44% for 2025, driven by market expansion and product sales [23] Group 17 - JMC reported a net profit decrease of 22.71% for 2025, despite a 2.07% increase in total revenue [27] - Daoshi Technology expects a net profit increase of 206.01% to 269.76% for 2025, driven by overseas business expansion [28] Group 18 - Jin Kai New Energy plans to repurchase shares worth 500 million to 600 million yuan, with a maximum repurchase price of 7.5 yuan per share [29] - Longyun Co. announced a stock suspension due to plans to acquire a 58% stake in Yuheng Film Industry [30]