1月25日晚，招金黄金、湖南黄金发布2025年全年业绩预增公告。受益于金价持续上涨，金矿类上市公 司业绩出现明显增长。 值得注意的是，虽然金价位于高位，但上市公司对金矿的扩张脚步并未停歇。1月25日晚，湖南黄金披 露了发行股份购买资产并募集配套资金暨关联交易预案。同日，洛阳钼业披露关于收购金矿项目完成交 割的公告。 华西证券研报认为，美联储货币政策的预期依然是决定金价趋势的主要因素，而地缘政治冲突、对美元 信用担忧，则成为加大金价涨幅的新催化剂。此外，全球央行的持续购金行为，为稳定金价底部提供有 力支撑。 金矿类公司业绩大幅预喜 1月25日晚，招金黄金间披露2025年度业绩预告。公司预计2025年全年实现归属于上市公司股东的净利 润为1.22亿元至1.82亿元，同比扭亏。业绩变动的主要原因为公司子公司斐济瓦图科拉金矿有限公司积 极推进技改工作，增产增效，叠加报告期内黄金价格上涨因素，因此报告期内毛利润有较大幅度的提 高。 1月25日晚，洛阳钼业披露关于收购金矿项目完成交割的公告。公司于2025年12月15日披露《洛阳栾川 钼业集团股份有限公司关于收购金矿项目的公告》，公司通过控股子公司收购加拿大上市公司Equ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-ferrous metals industry [6]. Core Viewpoints - Liquidity expectations have upgraded, leading to intensified trading. Recent optimistic interest rate cut expectations have resurfaced, driving both precious and industrial metals to break through previous levels. In the past week, the negative feedback for copper and aluminum has significantly weakened, and improvements in the real economy may be observed under high price conditions. Overall, the bullish trend for industrial products remains unchanged under the support of domestic and international policies [3][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Assessment - The report indicates an upgrade in liquidity expectations and a continuation of intense trading. The probability of BlackRock executive Riedel being elected as the Federal Reserve Chairman has surged to 54%. The optimistic expectations for interest rate cuts have reignited, pushing precious and industrial metals to new highs. Although copper and aluminum inventories continue to accumulate, the pace of accumulation has slowed, and the negative feedback from downstream processing has significantly diminished, with operating rates beginning to recover [9][13]. 2. Industry and Stock Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a weekly increase of 6.03%, ranking fourth among all industries [28]. The report lists several investment targets, including Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (600988, Buy) and Zijin Mining (601899, Buy) [4]. 3. Precious Metals - Precious metals are experiencing intense liquidity trading, awaiting the confirmation of the Federal Reserve Chairman nomination. As of January 23, SHFE gold rose by 8.07% to 1,115.64 CNY per gram, while COMEX gold increased by 7.54% to 4,036.00 USD per ounce. The report notes that the market expects limited upward pressure on precious metals in the short term due to anticipated interest rate stabilization [14][30]. 4. Copper - The report highlights renewed support for copper prices due to supply disruptions. As of January 23, SHFE copper rose by 0.57% to 101,340 CNY per ton, and LME copper increased by 2.44% to 13,115 USD per ton. Supply tightness continues, with recent strikes in Chile affecting copper concentrate availability [17][70]. 5. Aluminum - The report indicates a reduction in negative feedback for aluminum, with demand showing marginal recovery. As of January 23, SHFE aluminum rose by 1.53% to 24,290 CNY per ton, and LME aluminum increased by 1.12% to 3,169 USD per ton. The processing operating rate has risen by 0.7 percentage points to 60.9% [16][83].

今日看点 ▼聚焦一：思林杰：终止发行股份及支付现金购买资产并募集配套资金事项 公司原拟通过发行股份及支付现金的方式购买科凯电子的股权同时配套募集资金，本次交易预计构成重大资产重组且构成 关联交易，不构成重组上市。由于本次交易规模较大、涉及相关方较多，使得重大资产重组方案论证历时较长。现公司综 合考虑市场环境较本次交易筹划初期已发生一定变化，经公司与交易各相关方友好协商、认真研究和充分论证，基于审慎 性考虑，决定终止本次交易事项并向上海证券交易所申请撤回本次交易事项的相关申请文件。 | 条 开 | 公司 | 主要内容 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 五矿新能 | 2025年度预盈2.1亿至2.5亿元 同比扭亏 | | | 招金黄金 | 2025年度预盈1.22亿至1.82亿元 同比扭亏 | | | 优博讯 | 2025年度预盈7200万元至1.07亿元 同比扭亏 | | | 厦门信达 | 2025年度预盈1500万元 同比扭亏 | | | 新强联 | 2025年净利润同比预增1093.07%-1307.21% | | | 永创智能 | 2025年净利润同比预增721.57%-894.86% ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 有色金属行业周报（20260119-20260123） 避险升温&美联储独立性危机，金银价格再 推荐（维持） 创新高 ❑ 一、工业金属 ❑ 行业观点 2：受淡季影响和宏观扰动，铝价或震荡运行 ❑ 事件：根据钢联，1 月 23 日，SHFE 铜铝价格比为 4.18，LME 铜铝价格比为 4.08；库存看，截至 1 月 22 日，国内铝锭现货库存 76.8 万吨，环比上周四增 加 1.9 万吨，环比本周一增加 0.4 万吨，铝棒库存 22.95 万吨，环比上周四增 加 1.6 万吨，环比本周一增加 0.5 万吨；1 月 23 日 LME 库存 50.73 万吨，环 比本周一增加 22275 吨，环比上周五增加 19275 吨。从下游看，根据阿拉丁数 据，本周国内铝板带行业产能利用率为 70.39%，较上周下降 0.36 个百分点； 国内铝箔行业产能利用率为 75.52%，较上周上涨 0.77 个百分点。 观点：我们认为铝短期进入消费淡季，淡季效应在逐步显性，但是长期基本面 和宏观叙事大逻辑暂未改变，对铝价支撑强。当前看铝基本面：一是未来几年 供给刚性明显，电力扰动存量项目减产预期持续强化， ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a "steady rise" from January 19 to 23, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.84% to reach 4100 points, marking a new high since 2015 [2] - The Shenzhen Component Index and the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index rose by 1.11% and 2.62%, respectively, indicating a trend of "moderate index growth and accelerated capital inflow" [2] - The core driving force behind this market rally is identified as a combination of "policy support, capital inflow, and industrial trends" [2] Sector Performance - Cyclical and technology stocks acted as "dual drivers," with sectors such as building materials, steel, and chemicals seeing gains of over 5% [2] - Commercial aerospace concept stocks led the market due to favorable industry developments, while banking and non-bank financial sectors experienced declines [2] Policy and Regulation - The China Securities Regulatory Commission and the Asset Management Association of China jointly released performance benchmark guidelines aimed at addressing issues like "style drift" and "fund blind boxes," marking the beginning of a reshaping of the public fund ecosystem [2] Investment Trends - Institutional research focused on three main areas: commercial aerospace, metal mining, and storage chips, with significant interest in companies like Daikin Heavy Industries and Naipu Mining [3] - The MSCI Metals and Mining Index has surged nearly 90% year-to-date, driven by soaring global metal demand and tightening supply of key minerals [3] - Gold prices are projected to rise further, with Goldman Sachs forecasting a price of $5,400 per ounce by the end of 2026, indicating an 8% upside from current levels [3] Commercial Aerospace Developments - The commercial aerospace sector saw a resurgence after a volatile January, with significant domestic and international positive developments [4] - The financing total for the industry is expected to reach 18.6 billion yuan in 2025, a 32% year-on-year increase, as multiple companies initiate their IPO processes [4] - The global satellite count exceeds 12,000, with China's commercial aerospace sector aiming to capture technological transformation opportunities through "new space infrastructure" [4] Market Outlook - Institutions generally expect a "slow bull" market to continue, although caution is advised regarding short-term valuation correction risks [4] - Analysts predict that the A-share market will maintain a trend of oscillating upward, with accelerated sector rotation focusing on cyclical recovery and hard technology growth [4]

要点 本周小结： 2026 年供需偏紧仍支持铜价上行。截至 2026 年 1 月 23 日，SHFE 铜收盘价 101340 元/吨，环比 1 月 16 日+0.57%；截至 2026 年 1 月 23 日，LME 铜收盘价 13129 美元/吨，环比 1 月 16 日+2.54%。（1）宏观：市场对美联储 2026 年 1 月不降息已经基本定价。（2）供需：TC 现货价续创新低，显示铜精 矿现货采购依然紧张；线缆企业开工率本周环比回升，但国内社会库存继续增长， 铜价大涨对需求有压制；但展望 2026 年，供需依然偏紧，继续看好铜价上行。 库存：国内铜社库环比+2.9%，LME 铜库存环比+16.9%。（1）港口铜精矿库存： 截至 2026 年 1 月 23 日，国内主流港口铜精矿库存 71.9 万吨，环比上周+4.1%。 （2）全球电解铜库存：截至 2026 年 1 月 23 日，全球三大交易所库存合计 96.0 万吨，环比 1 月 16 日+6.2%。截至 1 月 22 日，LME 铜全球库存 17.2 万吨，环 比+16.9%；SMM 铜社会库存 33.0 万吨，环比 1 月 16 日+2.9%。截至 ...

相关研究 证券分析师 2026 年 01 月 25 日 郭中伟 A0230524120004 guozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 地缘紧张避险升温，金属价格强势 看好 ——金属&新材料行业周报 20260119-20260123 本期投资提示： 有色金属 究 / 行 业 点 评 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 行业点评 1．一周行情回顾 据 iFind，总体看，环比上周，上证指数上涨 0.84%，深证成指上涨 1.11%，沪深 300 下跌 0.62%，有色金属（申万）指数上涨 6.03%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 6.65 个百分点； 20 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-ferrous metals industry [6] Core Viewpoints - Liquidity expectations have upgraded, leading to intensified trading. Recent optimistic interest rate cut expectations have resurfaced, driving both precious and industrial metals to break through previous levels. The negative feedback for copper and aluminum has notably weakened, and improvements in the real economy may be observed under high price conditions. Overall, the bullish trend for industrial products remains unchanged under the support of domestic and international policies [3][9] Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Assessment - The cycle assessment indicates an upgrade in liquidity expectations and a continuation of intense trading. The probability of BlackRock executive Riedel being elected as the Federal Reserve Chairman has surged to 54%. The optimistic expectations for interest rate cuts have reignited, pushing precious and industrial metals to new highs. Although copper and aluminum inventories continue to accumulate, the pace of accumulation has slowed, and the negative feedback from downstream processing has significantly diminished, with operating rates beginning to recover [9][13] 2. Industry and Stock Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a weekly increase of 6.03%, ranking fourth among all industries [28]. The precious metals sector experienced the highest gains [21]. 3. Precious Metals - For precious metals, trading has become intensely liquid, awaiting the confirmation of the Federal Reserve Chairman nomination. As of January 23, SHFE gold rose by 8.07% to 1,115.64 CNY per gram, while COMEX gold increased by 7.54% to 4,036.00 USD per ounce. The inventory levels for SHFE gold were 102 tons, an increase of 1.96 tons from the previous week [14][30]. 4. Copper - The copper market is experiencing renewed support due to supply disruptions. As of January 23, SHFE copper rose by 0.57% to 101,340 CNY per ton, and LME copper increased by 2.44% to 13,115 USD per ton. The operating rate for refined copper rods was 67.98%, up by 10.51 percentage points [17][29]. 5. Aluminum - The aluminum market shows signs of demand recovery as negative feedback weakens. As of January 23, SHFE aluminum rose by 1.53% to 24,290 CNY per ton, and LME aluminum increased by 1.12% to 3,169 USD per ton. The processing operating rate rose by 0.7 percentage points to 60.9% [16][85].

公募基金仓位再均衡，周 期行业配置上行 2025年四季度基金季报 研究团队：邓宇林、包承超、肖遥志 报告日期：2026年1月25日 证券研究报告 * 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 摘要 ➢ 1、整体上，公募基金仓位下降，集中度稳定： 公募基金整体仓位小幅下降，而重仓股集中度较为稳定，权重股赚钱效应一般。 板块配置上，创业板配置上升，主板配置下降，科创板配置稳定；对港股的配置回落到16%附近。 ➢ 2.分规模看，公募基金规模、份额再度收缩： 整体上，四季度基金管理规模和份额均回落，其中份额收缩幅度达到10%附近。 各规模基金均从必选消费、TMT切换至周期。 ➢ 3.行业层面： TMT整体减配，电子、计算机、传媒三个行业减配比例均超过1%；通信行业的配置仍在提升，但头部标的的持股数量在减持（增 配主要来自行情上行）； 周期行业整体市场快速上行；有色和化工均明显增配，公募基金仓位开始再均衡； 其他行业，非银、机械的配置比例也明显上升。 ➢ 风险提示：全球地缘政治出现重大变化，导致全球市场风险偏好急剧变化。市场流动性超预期变化。历史数据不代表未来。 1 证券研究报告 * 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 2 证券研究报告 * ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report highlights that copper prices are experiencing high-level fluctuations amidst inventory accumulation, with short-term price adjustments expected to be limited due to the financial attributes of copper supported by rising gold prices. The supply-demand balance for copper may shift from tight equilibrium to shortage in the medium to long term, driven by insufficient capital expenditure in copper mines and frequent supply disruptions. The report suggests monitoring companies such as Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Jiangxi Copper, and others [5] - For aluminum, the report notes that both alumina and aluminum prices are under pressure due to high inventory levels. The short-term outlook for aluminum prices is expected to remain stable amidst high demand, particularly in the air conditioning and consumer goods sectors [5] - Lithium demand remains strong despite seasonal trends, with lithium carbonate prices entering an upward cycle driven by supply-demand reversal. The report recommends focusing on companies with high self-sufficiency in lithium resources [5] - Cobalt prices are expected to continue rising due to tight raw material supply, with the report suggesting companies like Huayou Cobalt and others for investment [5] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The report provides insights into macroeconomic indicators, including the U.S. core PCE price index and unemployment claims, which align with expectations [9] - Key announcements include Zijin Mining's completion of the second phase of the Jilong Copper Mine, significantly increasing its production capacity [10] 2. Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of 6.03% compared to the index's 0.84% rise [11] - The report lists the top-performing stocks in the sector, highlighting significant movements in various sub-sectors [11] 3. Valuation Changes - The report notes that the TTM PE for the non-ferrous metals sector is 33.82, with a change of 1.79, while the PB is 4.18, reflecting a significant premium over the broader market [20][23]