长江电力 东方财富 02)中国核电 1951.90亿市值 7330.68亿市值 3284.08亿市值 15.40亿成交额 4.28亿成交额 23.58亿成交额 20.78 29.96 9.49 -0.24(-0.79%) -0.09(-0.94%) +0.16(+0.78%) 食品饮料 证券 中信证券 国泰海通 海天味业 ■双 3808.88亿市值 3169.82亿市值 2455.01亿市值 9.24亿成交额 19.31亿成交额 3.88亿成交额 25.70 17.98 44.15 +0.18(+0.71%) +0.80(+4.66%) -0.27(-0.61%) 消费电子 化学制药 恒瑞医药 立讯精密 工业富联 3747.37亿市值 2201.05亿市值 3663.63亿市值 5.37亿成交额 11.33亿成交额 15.91亿成交额 55.48 30.37 18.87 -0.06(-0.32%) -0.03(-0.10%) +0.74(+1.35%) 家电行业 农牧饲渔 牧原股份 格力电器 海尔智家 油气长官 2525.11亿市值 2326.02亿市值 2241.92亿市值 23.68亿成交额 5.79亿成 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry [5]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the impact of the US debt crisis and tariff shocks, suggesting a focus on investment opportunities in the gold sector [12]. - Steel prices are experiencing a significant decline, with the overall price index dropping by 1.90% [37]. - The supply and prices of new energy metals are both on the decline, indicating potential challenges in this sector [41]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Viewpoints - The US debt crisis and tariff shocks are leading to a focus on gold investment opportunities, with expectations of continued high gold prices due to market conditions [12]. - Steel consumption has slightly increased, but overall prices are down, with rebar prices falling to 3217 CNY/ton, a decrease of 1.94% [13][37]. 2. Steel Industry - Steel consumption for rebar reached 2.49 million tons, a slight increase of 0.63% week-on-week [17]. - Total steel inventory has decreased significantly, with a total inventory of 933 thousand tons, down 2.92% week-on-week [25]. - The profitability of long and short process rebar steel shows divergence, with long process profitability slightly increasing while short process profitability decreased [32]. 3. New Energy Metals - Lithium production in April 2025 was 70,640 tons, a year-on-year increase of 40.38%, but a slight month-on-month decrease of 0.87% [41]. - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is reported at 61,000 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week decline of 3.17% [50]. 4. Industrial Metals - Copper smelting fees (TC) have slightly increased, with the current fee at -43.50 USD/thousand tons, up 1.69% week-on-week [61]. - The overall production costs for electrolytic aluminum have shown mixed trends, with costs in Xinjiang decreasing by 3.79% [15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within the next six months [6][13]. Core Views - The company plans to spin off its gold subsidiary, Zijin Gold International, for a listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, which is expected to lead to a revaluation of its assets [3][4]. - The spin-off will involve the integration of multiple overseas gold mining assets, enhancing the company's global footprint and resource base [4]. - The company has launched an employee stock ownership plan, reflecting management's confidence in future growth [5]. Financial Summary - The latest closing price is 17.82 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 473.6 billion yuan [2]. - The company expects net profits for 2025-2027 to be 40.57 billion, 44.04 billion, and 50.01 billion yuan respectively, with year-over-year growth rates of 26.57%, 8.58%, and 13.54% [6][9]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are 1.53, 1.66, and 1.88 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 11.68, 10.75, and 9.47 [9][12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Zijin Mining is "Buy" with a target price of HK$24.40, representing an expected return of 36.3% from the current price of HK$17.90 [5]. Core Insights - The Kamoa-Kakula project is expected to contribute approximately 5.4% to Zijin's total net profit in FY24, with a net profit of Rmb1.7 billion from this project in 2024 [2][3]. - The copper production guidance for the Kamoa-Kakula project is set at 520-580kt for 2025, which will account for 20%-22% of Zijin's total copper production guidance for that year [2][4]. - Zijin is planning to spin off and list eight gold mining assets, targeting completion before the end of 2025, subject to approval [3]. - The Manono lithium project is anticipated to commence operations in 2026, with a production guidance of 250-300kt by 2028 [4]. Summary by Sections Kamoa-Kakula Project - The underground mining activities at Kakula Mine have been suspended, while the phase 1+2 processing plant has started processing surface stockpiles totaling 3.8 million tonnes of ore with an average grade of 3.2% copper [2]. - The phase 3 processing plant continues to operate normally, and the overall impact on production and cost guidance is still under investigation [2]. Gold Spin-off - The management of Zijin is actively working on restructuring to facilitate the spin-off and listing of eight gold mining assets, with a completion target before the end of 2025 [3]. Lithium Project - The Manono lithium project is expected to be operational by 2026, with a production target of 250-300kt in 2028 [4]. Financial Overview - Zijin's market capitalization is approximately HK$475.739 billion (US$60.693 billion), with an expected dividend yield of 2.3% and a total expected return of 38.7% [5][7].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: Basic Materials, specifically gold, copper, aluminum, steel, and lithium sectors [2][3][6][7] Core Insights 1. **Gold Market**: - Consensus remains positive on gold, with potential prices reaching up to $6,000 [2][3] - Central bank buying continues to support gold prices, with minimal earnings impact from recent seismic activity at Kamoa mine estimated at less than 5% [3] 2. **Copper Supply**: - A shortage in copper concentrate is expected to persist, with supply increases projected between 100,000 to 1 million tons in 2025, insufficient to meet demand [6][8] - High operating costs at mining companies necessitate higher copper prices to incentivize new supply [6] 3. **Aluminum Sector**: - Aluminum margins remain healthy, with alumina prices stabilizing around Rmb3,000 per ton [2][6] - Hongqiao has relocated aluminum capacity to Yunnan, with plans for further expansion [7] 4. **Steel Industry**: - Weak sentiment in the steel market continues, with expectations of a crude steel production cut of 50 million tons to address supply-demand pressures [7] - Trade tensions and tariffs have negatively impacted steel exports, although some companies are exploring new markets [7] 5. **Lithium Market**: - The lithium market faces oversupply issues, with prices expected to decline unless production cuts occur [6][8] - Ganfeng anticipates a short-term drop in lithium prices due to tariff concerns and reduced costs for Australian miners [8] Additional Important Insights - **Zijin Mining**: - Zijin is optimistic about gold prices reaching $5,000 by 2026, driven by demand from electrification and power grid needs [7] - The company plans to maintain high capital expenditures to meet growth targets by 2028 [7] - **CMOC**: - CMOC's profits are closely tied to market price volatility, with a DRC cobalt export policy update expected soon [8] - The company is facing pressure on production costs due to higher sulfur costs and taxes [8] - **Market Sentiment**: - Overall market sentiment remains cautious, with trade tensions and macroeconomic factors influencing demand across various sectors [6][7][8] Conclusion The conference call highlighted a mixed outlook across the basic materials sector, with strong long-term potential for gold and copper, while challenges persist in the steel and lithium markets. Companies are adapting to market conditions through strategic capacity adjustments and exploring new opportunities amidst ongoing trade tensions.

Group 1: Metal and Mining Sector - Zijin Mining's copper production is expected to increase by 7% to 115,000 tons in 2025, with gold production rising by 16% to 85 tons[15] - The company's projected net profit for 2024 is 32.05 billion CNY, increasing to 42.06 billion CNY in 2025, and 49.36 billion CNY in 2026, with a PE ratio decreasing from 14.39 to 9.34[13] Group 2: Construction Materials Sector - China National Materials Technology's net profit is forecasted to grow from 0.89 billion CNY in 2024 to 2.10 billion CNY in 2026, with a significant increase in high-end product capacity[20] - Keda Manufacturing's overseas revenue is projected to rise from 20 billion CNY in 2017 to 80 billion CNY in 2024, with overseas revenue share increasing from 36% to 64%[30] Group 3: Chemical Sector - Yara International's net profit is expected to reach 0.2 billion CNY in 2024, 3.0 billion CNY in 2025, and 7.2 billion CNY in 2026, driven by the expansion of special glass fiber production[25] - Ba Tian Co. is projected to maintain a strong profit margin due to its diverse fertilizer product offerings, with a production capacity of 200,000 tons of phosphate rock annually[79] Group 4: Aviation Sector - Juneyao Airlines is expected to achieve a net profit of 1.05 billion CNY in 2024, increasing to 2.0 billion CNY in 2025, with a PE ratio of 27.2 in 2024 and dropping to 11.4 in 2026[70] - The airline's operational efficiency is highlighted by its leading cost control, with a significant reduction in financial expenses anticipated in the coming years[70]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals sector is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Viewpoints - Copper prices are fluctuating within a narrow range, awaiting further macroeconomic catalysts. The weekly changes in copper prices are -0.05% for London copper, -0.24% for Shanghai copper, and -3.35% for New York copper. Domestic copper inventory has increased by 7.2% to 106,000 tons [5][22] - Aluminum prices are stable with ongoing inventory depletion. The price of alumina has risen by 2.95% to 3,320 CNY/ton, while electrolytic aluminum prices have decreased by 0.40% to 20,100 CNY/ton [5][31] - Lithium prices continue to decline, with carbonate lithium down 3.73% to 60,700 CNY/ton. The supply side has not shown significant production cuts yet, which is a major factor suppressing lithium prices [5][72] - Cobalt prices remain under pressure due to weak demand, with potential policy changes in the Democratic Republic of Congo that could create rebound opportunities [5][84] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The non-ferrous metals sector has underperformed, with the Shenwan non-ferrous index down 2.40%, lagging behind the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.38 percentage points [11] - The sector's PE_TTM is 17.86, down 0.50 from the previous week, while the PB_LF is 2.05, down 0.06 [17][20] 2. Industrial Metals 2.1 Copper - London copper prices decreased by 0.05%, while Shanghai copper prices fell by 0.24%. London copper inventory dropped by 9.02%, while Shanghai inventory increased by 7.22% [22] 2.2 Aluminum - London aluminum prices increased by 0.02%, while Shanghai aluminum prices decreased by 0.40%. The inventory of both London and Shanghai aluminum has decreased [31] 2.3 Lead and Zinc - London lead prices fell by 1.29%, and Shanghai lead prices decreased by 0.92%. London zinc prices dropped by 0.67%, while Shanghai zinc prices fell by 0.07% [42] 2.4 Tin and Nickel - London tin prices decreased by 6.80%, and Shanghai tin prices fell by 4.45%. Nickel prices also saw a decline [57] 3. Energy Metals 3.1 Lithium - Lithium carbonate prices fell by 3.73% to 60,700 CNY/ton, with lithium demand currently in a seasonal downturn [72] 3.2 Cobalt - Domestic cobalt prices decreased by 1.68% to 234,000 CNY/ton, with potential for policy changes in the DRC to impact future prices [84]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the aluminum sector, indicating a positive outlook due to ongoing inventory depletion and price support for aluminum [1]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that domestic aluminum inventories continue to decrease, providing stable support for aluminum prices around 20,000 yuan per ton. The market is transitioning from peak to off-peak consumption, with current inventory levels being among the lowest in three years [8][9]. - The copper sector is also viewed positively, with recommendations for specific companies such as Zijin Mining, Jincheng Mining, and Western Mining, as global copper supply remains tight [2][9]. Industry Data Summary Aluminum Industry - As of May 29, domestic aluminum ingot inventory stands at 511,000 tons, down by 23,000 tons from the previous week, indicating a significant reduction in stock levels [8]. - The report notes that the aluminum rod inventory has also decreased, albeit at a slower pace, with current levels around 128,300 tons, which is still low compared to historical data [8]. Copper Industry - The report mentions that as of the latest data, the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) copper inventory is 105,800 tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 7,120 tons, while the London Metal Exchange (LME) copper inventory decreased by 16,650 tons to 149,900 tons [2][9]. - The global visible copper inventory is reported at 472,000 tons, down by 12,656 tons from the previous week, indicating a tightening supply situation [2]. Tungsten and Rare Metals - The report indicates that tungsten prices continue to rise due to supply constraints, with domestic tungsten concentrate prices at 169,500 yuan per ton and APT prices at 248,000 yuan per ton [9]. - The report recommends focusing on companies benefiting from tungsten price elasticity and those involved in the strategic reassessment of rare metals [9].

Group 1 - A total of 13 A-share listed companies are planning to list in Hong Kong as of May 2023, indicating a trend of companies seeking to expand their market presence [1][2] - Zijin Mining announced on May 26 its intention to spin off Zijin Gold International for a listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [1][2] - Other companies involved in this trend include Guomin Technology, Hehe Information, Shantui, Guoen Technology, Weier Technology, Longqi Technology, Chaohongji, Zhaoyi Innovation, Meige Intelligent, Xin'ao, Junxin Technology, and Wol Nuclear Materials [1][2] Group 2 - The specific plans for each company include issuing H-shares and listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with announcements made throughout May [2] - The companies have disclosed their intentions on various dates, with the earliest being Wol Nuclear Materials on May 12 and the latest being Guomin Technology on May 30 [2] - This movement reflects a broader strategy among A-share companies to access international capital markets and diversify their funding sources [1][2]

Core Viewpoint - Zijin Mining is planning to spin off its subsidiary, Zijin Gold International, for an independent listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, marking the company's third IPO since its establishment [1][5]. Spin-off Listing - The spin-off involves Zijin Mining's overseas gold mining assets, which include eight world-class large gold mines located in South America, Central Asia, Africa, and Oceania [3][6]. - The total resource amount of these eight gold mines is 1,799.79 tons, with a total reserve of 696.83 tons and a combined production of 46.22 tons in 2024 [3][4]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Zijin Mining achieved a revenue of 303.64 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.49%, and a net profit of 39.393 billion yuan, up 48.43% [2]. - Gold sales revenue accounted for 49.64% of Zijin Mining's total revenue in 2024, with gold production from its mines reaching 72,938 kilograms, a 7.70% increase year-on-year [2]. Market Context - The spin-off coincides with an upward trend in gold prices, which is expected to enhance the valuation of the company's gold assets [5]. - The global demand for gold investment reached 1,180 tons in 2024, reflecting a 25% year-on-year increase, driven by geopolitical factors [4]. Strategic Implications - The spin-off is anticipated to improve Zijin Mining's overall value and shareholder value, as well as enhance its market capitalization management and asset securitization levels [5][6]. - The independent listing is expected to accelerate Zijin Mining's internationalization process and strengthen its gold business segment, while also reducing operational risks abroad [6]. Company Expansion - Zijin Mining has a history of strategic expansions, having previously listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in 2003 and the Shanghai Stock Exchange in 2008, raising significant capital in both instances [7]. - As of the end of 2024, Zijin Mining's copper resources reached 110 million tons, ranking second globally, while its gold resources amounted to 3,972.53 tons, placing it fifth worldwide [7].