Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Since the listing of propylene futures on July 22, the price of the main contract has shown an overall downward trend, affected by factors such as a loose fundamental situation, weakened cost support, and sluggish downstream demand [1][7]. - In 2026, it is necessary to focus on the production progress of the industrial chain, the PDH's phased adjustment of the supply - demand balance, the slow - down of PP growth but persistent pressure, and changes in the import - export pattern [1][2]. - The expected price range of propylene in 2026 is between 5,400 - 6,400 yuan/ton [3]. - Recommended strategies include unilateral interval operations and variety - based interval operations such as PP - PL and PL/PG (FEI/CP) [3]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Chapter 2: Market Review - After the listing of propylene futures on July 22, the main contract price declined from a high of 6,694 yuan/ton to a low of 5,715 yuan/ton, driven by factors such as a shift to a loose fundamental situation, weakened cost support, and sluggish downstream PP demand [7]. - There were also some phased disturbance factors during the decline, including the "anti - involution" policy expectation and unstable device operations [7][8]. - The propylene basis fluctuated between - 250 and 250 yuan/ton. The futures price was affected by fundamental over - supply pressure and the weakening of the PP end, while the spot price was more sensitive to device changes [10]. - The spot price difference between propylene and polypropylene (PP) fluctuated significantly, while the futures price difference had a relatively narrow range. The PP - PL spread showed different trends at different times due to factors such as device maintenance and new capacity addition [12]. Chapter 3: Core Focus Points - **3.1 Production Growth Slowdown**: From 2019 - 2025, the cumulative new propylene production capacity was about 45.87 million tons, with an average annual compound growth rate of 13%. As of now in 2025, the newly put - into - operation capacity is about 9.93 million tons, a 14.24% increase from 2024. In 2026, the planned new capacity is about 6 - 8 million tons, with a growth rate of 7.5% - 10%. The upstream - downstream integration trend is significant, and the actual supply - demand difference is also related to the start - up situation of upstream and downstream [14][16][18]. - **3.2 PDH's Phased Adjustment of Supply - Demand Balance**: PDH and refinery catalytic cracking devices have a greater impact on the propylene trading market. In 2025, the overall PDH operating rate was around 71%, with profit being the core driving factor. In 2026, low profit may become the norm, and some enterprises under greater operating pressure may arrange maintenance. Attention should be paid to enterprises with frequent start - stop operations and those that can significantly affect regional prices [20][21][23]. - **3.3 PP Growth Slowdown but Persistent Pressure**: The price of the propylene main contract is highly correlated with the PP futures price. In 2025, the total production capacity of polypropylene powder and granules reached 57.85 million tons, with a growth rate of 10.82%. In 2026, the planned new production capacity is 3.6 - 4.4 million tons, mainly concentrated in the second half of the year. Attention should be paid to the production rhythm, maintenance, and capacity clearance on the supply side, as well as domestic demand resilience and export increments on the demand side [25]. - **3.4 Import - Export Pattern Changes**: China is still a net importer of propylene. In January - October 2025, 1.83 million tons were imported, with 1.25 million tons from South Korea, accounting for 68.31% of the total imports. South Korea plans to restructure its petrochemical business, which may lead to a reduction in China's propylene imports from South Korea and have a positive impact on the domestic supply - demand and price [30][31][33]. Chapter 3 (Continued) - **3.1 Valuation Feedback**: PDH profit has room for repair. In the fourth quarter of 2025, the PDH profit space was significantly compressed. After the new year, some enterprises may arrange maintenance, and the PDH profit is expected to recover to some extent. The PP - PL spread is oscillating at a low level, and there may be some room for expansion in the future if PP device maintenance increases [36][38]. - **3.2 Supply - Demand Outlook**: From January - November 2025, the domestic propylene production was 55.35 million tons, a 13.82% year - on - year increase, with an average operating rate of 74%. In 2026, the production is expected to remain high, and the supply will remain loose. The demand side is affected by the over - supply pressure of PP and other downstream industries, and the over - supply pressure will increase with new capacity addition [40][42]. - **Shandong Market Balance**: The supply in the Shandong market is mainly affected by PDH and refinery catalytic cracking, with PDH having greater fluctuations. The demand is mainly affected by PP and PO. In 2026, attention should be paid to the operation of existing capacities on the supply side and the start - up of new downstream devices on the demand side [45][46].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The current new - season Xinjiang cotton harvest is abundant, and domestic commercial inventories have rapidly rebounded. In the short term, there is still supply and hedging pressure above. However, based on the low inventory from the previous year and the expected low imports in the new year, the overall increase in domestic supply in the new year has narrowed. Downstream, domestic spinning capacity has expanded, Xinjiang yarn mills have maintained high - load operations, and the rigid demand for cotton consumption has increased. Domestic demand shows a moderate growth trend supported by macro - policies. At the same time, the reduction of Sino - US tariffs is conducive to the recovery of China's textile and clothing exports, supporting domestic cotton consumption. The supply - demand outlook for domestic cotton in the new year is expected to be tight, and the center of cotton prices is expected to rise. Attention should be paid to whether the Xinjiang target price subsidy policy will be adjusted next year, as the area of new - season Xinjiang cotton is still variable. The predicted range for Zhengzhou cotton is around 13,500 - 15,500 yuan/ton [1][37]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Zhengzhou Cotton**: In 2025, Zhengzhou cotton fell rapidly in the second quarter and then rebounded, fluctuating in the range of 13,200 - 14,300 yuan/ton with low volatility. At the beginning of the year, domestic textile enterprises replenished raw materials rigidly at low prices, but with high cotton inventories, cotton prices fluctuated. During the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, due to the significant increase in US foreign tariffs, Zhengzhou cotton dropped sharply, but after the Sino - US talks, the tariff policy was postponed, and cotton prices rebounded. With low domestic imported cotton and better - than - expected downstream demand, Xinjiang cotton destocked quickly, and the year - end inventory was low, so cotton prices were strong. However, with the upcoming new cotton listing and a large number of pre - sales for the new year, ginneries hedged in advance under the expectation of a bumper Xinjiang cotton harvest, and cotton prices fell before the acquisition period, then fluctuated slightly with the new - season output expectation [1]. - **US Cotton**: In 2025, US cotton fluctuated narrowly in the range of 63 - 70 cents/pound. At the beginning of the year, the export progress of the 24/25 US cotton season was slow, and the unpriced purchase contracts and non - commercial short positions were high, with significant upward pressure. After the implementation of the US import tariff increase policy, cotton prices tested down to around 60 cents/pound, but after the annual export target was completed, cotton prices recovered. Then, US cotton fluctuated narrowly under the expectations of slow export contracts and a decline in new - cotton output. With the upward adjustment of the global output expectation, the global cotton supply - demand outside China was loose, and the trend of US cotton was weakening [6]. 3.2 Core Concerns 3.2.1 Xinjiang Cotton Output Reaches a New High, Pay Attention to Next Year's Policy Adjustment - **Output**: The new - season Xinjiang cotton output is expected to be high. The initial national estimate is that the average yield per mu in Xinjiang is 171.8 kg, an increase of 3.7% year - on - year, and the output is 704.7 tons, an increase of 12.2% year - on - year. The national total cotton output is expected to be 740.9 tons, an increase of 11.0% year - on - year. The current market mainstream estimates that Xinjiang's output has increased to 730 - 750 tons, and the China Cotton Information Network has adjusted the national output expectation to 767.9 tons, an increase of 12% year - on - year, with Xinjiang's output increasing to 736.9 tons. As of December 15, 2025, the national new - season cotton notarized inspection volume was 544.05 tons, an increase of 13.89% year - on - year [8]. - **Acquisition**: This year, there are 1069 target - price reform processing enterprises in Xinjiang. The cotton processing capacity is still in excess, but ginneries have low risk preferences, and the new - cotton acquisition price is relatively stable. There were many pre - sales of new cotton this year, and the sales speed was fast. Some enterprises hedged in advance, causing Zhengzhou cotton to fall before the National Day, and the overall new - cotton acquisition price was low. The acquisition price in southern Xinjiang is slightly higher than that in northern Xinjiang, and there is still some high - cost new cotton in southern Xinjiang to be hedged [8][10]. - **Policy**: This year is the last year of the 18,600 yuan/ton target - price subsidy policy for cotton. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of the subsidy policy next year and its impact on farmers' enthusiasm for cotton planting [10]. 3.2.2 Imports Remain Low, Quota Supply is Limited - **Import Volume**: From January to November 2025, China's cumulative cotton imports were 900,000 tons, a decrease of 1.6 million tons year - on - year, and cumulative棉纱 imports were 1.33 million tons, a decrease of 40,000 tons year - on - year. The domestic - foreign cotton price difference has been at a relatively high level, and the import profit is considerable, but the import quota is limited. The 1% import tariff quota for cotton in 2026 remains at 894,000 tons, plus the additional 200,000 - ton sliding - scale tariff quota issued at the end of August 2025. The probability of further increasing the cotton import quota is low, and the new - year import volume is expected to be around 1.1 million tons, similar to the 24/25 season [13]. 3.2.3 Demand is Resilient, Pay Attention to Policy Support - **Domestic Demand**: From January to November 2025, the retail sales of domestic clothing, footwear, needles, and textiles totaled 1.37029 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.91% year - on - year. Since August, the year - on - year growth rate of domestic textile and clothing retail sales has exceeded that of social consumer goods retail sales. The China Cotton Textile PMI has been rising since the third quarter and returned above the boom - bust line in October. In the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, domestic textile enterprises' order - receiving situation improved later. With the decline in cotton prices, spinning profits were repaired, and downstream product destocking was good. The expansion of Xinjiang's spinning capacity and the high - load operation of yarn mills have increased the rigid demand for cotton. With the continuous influence of consumption - promotion policies next year, domestic terminal textile and clothing sales are expected to maintain a moderate growth trend [18][19]. - **Export Demand**: From January to November 2025, China's total textile and clothing export volume was 267.853 billion US dollars, a decrease of 2.09% year - on - year. Since July, exports have declined continuously. After the Sino - US summit in October, the US tariff policy was adjusted, which is beneficial to China's textile and clothing exports. In November, exports rebounded month - on - month. From January to October 2025, China's cotton - product exports totaled 55.086 billion US dollars, a decrease of 6.45% year - on - year, and the export volume was 6.1442 million tons, an increase of 7.76% year - on - year, showing a "quantity - for - price" situation, which still supports cotton consumption [22][23]. 3.2.4 Low Cotton - Grain Price Ratio in the US, Slow Cotton Export Progress - **Output**: In the 25/26 season, due to the low cotton - grain price ratio in the US, the cotton - planting area decreased. However, the drought in Texas has been significantly alleviated, the national cotton abandonment rate has decreased by 5.28 percentage points to 20.7%, and the yield per mu has increased by 4.9% to 69.4 kg. The USDA predicts that the US cotton output in the 25/26 season will be 3.106 million tons, a decrease of 1% year - on - year. If the cotton - grain price ratio remains low before the planting season next year, it may further suppress farmers' enthusiasm for cotton planting [25]. - **Export**: As of November 20, 2025, the US's cumulative net export contracts for 25/26 - season cotton were 1.306 million tons, a decrease of 262,000 tons year - on - year, reaching 49.16% of the annual expected export volume. China's cumulative import contracts for 25/26 - season US cotton were only 39,000 tons, a decrease of 112,000 tons year - on - year. Vietnam's cumulative import contracts were 379,000 tons, accounting for 29.02% of the contracted US cotton. Pakistan's cumulative import contracts were 138,000 tons, accounting for 10.57% of the contracted US cotton. US cotton exports have been affected by high tariffs, and the export progress has been slow. In the future, with the competition from Brazilian cotton exports, attention should be paid to changes in US foreign tariff policies [30]. 3.2.5 Abundant Foreign New - Cotton Supply, Loose Global Supply - Demand Outlook According to the USDA's December global cotton supply - demand report, the global cotton output in the 25/26 season is expected to be 26.081 million tons, an increase of 111,000 tons year - on - year. China and Brazil continue to increase production, and the US's production decline is narrower than previously expected. The global cotton output is at a relatively high historical level. The global cotton consumption is expected to be 25.823 million tons, a decrease of 71,000 tons year - on - year. The global cotton ending inventory is expected to be 16.541 million tons, an increase of 296,000 tons year - on - year. The global cotton supply - demand pattern is loose. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of trade policies between countries and the impact of US interest - rate cuts on terminal consumption [35]. 3.3 Valuation Feedback and Supply - Demand Outlook The new - season Xinjiang cotton harvest is abundant, and domestic commercial inventories have rebounded rapidly. In the short term, there is supply and hedging pressure. However, due to the low inventory in the previous year and the expected low imports in the new year, the increase in domestic supply has narrowed. Downstream demand is strong, and domestic cotton consumption is supported. The new - year domestic cotton supply - demand is expected to be tight, and cotton prices are expected to rise. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of the Xinjiang target - price subsidy policy next year, as the area of new - season Xinjiang cotton is still variable [37].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the polysilicon futures price showed a volatile and weakening trend. The core logic guiding the price trend focuses on factors such as supply - side maintenance and shutdown, downstream demand - side production scheduling, anti - involution policies in the photovoltaic industry, and warehouse receipt registration [3]. - From a fundamental perspective, the industry currently shows a feature of "weak supply and weak demand". The polysilicon production has a downward trend, and the downstream silicon wafer, cell, and component production is also under pressure. The polysilicon inventory remains at a recent high, and the terminal demand in the component bidding market is weak. It is expected that the weak - balance state of the fundamentals will continue [3]. - In terms of trading sentiment, the market has reacted to platform companies, and subsequent actual implementation actions need attention. The subsequent trading logic is recommended to be mainly based on the technical logic supported by price trends and volume - energy changes [3]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - **Fundamental factors**: The industry shows "weak supply and weak demand". Supply - side production expansion has slowed down, downstream production is under pressure, inventory is high, and the component bidding market is weak [3]. - **Trading logic**: Near - end trading logic (before the end of the year) focuses on warehouse receipt registration and supply - demand side reduction and shutdown. Distant - end trading logic (after the end of the year) involves observing the progress of "anti - involution" policies and the implementation of new photovoltaic installed capacity in 2026, as well as downstream and overseas photovoltaic demand [5][6]. 1.2 Industry Operation Suggestions - **Polysilicon futures price range**: The polysilicon futures price is expected to have wide - range fluctuations, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 28.63% and a historical percentile of 83.6% over three years [8]. - **Risk management strategies**: Different strategies are proposed for various scenarios such as sales, procurement, and inventory management of polysilicon, silicon wafers, and cells, with recommended hedging ratios ranging from 10% to 40% [8]. Chapter 2: Market Information - On December 12, a 1 - gigawatt photovoltaic power generation project in Wusu City, Xinjiang, started an open tender for engineering procurement and construction (EPC), with a construction period of no more than 360 calendar days [9]. - On December 17, SEG Solar, a US - based solar component manufacturer, started the construction of a 3 - gigawatt monocrystalline silicon and silicon wafer production base in Indonesia, which is expected to expand to 5 gigawatts and be put into operation in Q3 2026. The company has a cumulative photovoltaic component shipment of over 6 gigawatts and a global solar cell installation capacity of 5 gigawatts [9]. - On December 18, *ST Haiyuan announced that its subsidiary would purchase a second - hand 150MW TOPCON photovoltaic component production line and upgrade it to a 300MW production line [9]. Chapter 3: Market Analysis 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Analysis - **Market review**: The polysilicon weighted index contract closed at 60,521 yuan/ton this week, up 4.84% week - on - week. The trading volume was 362,864 lots, down 19.17% week - on - week, and the open interest was 247,847 lots, down 21,847 lots week - on - week. The PS2602 - PS2605 spread was in a back structure, down 575 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 20 lots week - on - week [13]. - **Technical analysis**: The polysilicon futures price ran above the 5 - day moving average, showing a "long - position increasing and price rising" feature. It reached the upper edge of the Bollinger Band, and the bandwidth of the Bollinger Band showed a volatile trend [14]. - **Option situation**: The 20 - day historical volatility and the implied volatility of at - the - money options of polysilicon were in a volatile state. The option open interest PCR was in a volatile and strengthening state, indicating a rising bearish sentiment in the market [16]. - **Capital flow**: The net long - position scale of key profitable seats in polysilicon showed an increasing sign [18]. - **Spread structure**: The polysilicon futures term structure showed a phased back structure, and the basis of the main contract showed a volatile and weakening trend [20][23]. 3.2 Futures and Price Data - **Polysilicon prices**: The prices of N - type polysilicon materials such as N - type re - feeding materials, N - type dense materials, etc., showed little change, with only a slight increase in N - type re - feeding materials by 0.19% week - on - week [26]. - **Silicon wafer prices**: The silicon wafer price index increased by 2.00% week - on - week, and the prices of some N - type silicon wafers also increased [26]. - **Cell and component prices**: The prices of some cell and component products showed small changes, with the prices of some Topcon cells increasing by 3.53% - 6.12% week - on - week [26]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis - The overall profitability of polysilicon enterprises is stable. The spot profit of polysilicon shows a stable trend, and the profit of the silane method is higher than that of the improved Siemens method [27]. - From the futures perspective, the gross profit margin of polysilicon futures is about 39.89% under the accounting model with industrial silicon and electricity as the main cost components [27]. Chapter 5: Fundamental Data 5.1 Polysilicon Supply - **Domestic production**: The domestic polysilicon weekly production decreased, with SMM - reported production at 25,000 tons, down 0.40% week - on - week and 7.75% month - on - month, and Baichuan - reported production at 26,330 tons, down 0.53% week - on - week and 7.35% month - on - month. The Baichuan - reported weekly operating rate was 41%, down 0.0238 week - on - week and 8.89% month - on - month [35]. - **Overseas production**: Overseas polysilicon monthly production and operating rate data are provided, showing certain trends [37]. - **Inventory**: The domestic polysilicon weekly inventory was 512,000 tons, with a slight decrease of 0.03% week - on - week but an increase of 2.08% month - on - month. The inventory of production enterprises increased, while that of silicon wafer enterprises decreased [40]. 5.2 Silicon Wafer Supply - **Production and inventory**: The domestic silicon wafer weekly production was 10.67GW, down 12.18% week - on - week and 16.51% month - on - month. The weekly inventory was 21.5GW, down 7.73% week - on - week but up 14.85% month - on - month [43]. - **Export**: Data on the monthly net export of domestic silicon wafers are provided, showing seasonal trends [46]. 5.3 Cell Supply - **Production and inventory**: The monthly production and operating rate data of domestic cells are provided, showing seasonal trends. The weekly inventory of photovoltaic cells was 9.44GW, up 4.08% week - on - week but down 7.54% month - on - month [50][53]. - **Export**: Data on the monthly export of domestic photovoltaic cells are provided [52]. 5.4 Photovoltaic Component Supply - **Production and inventory**: The monthly production and operating rate data of photovoltaic components are provided, showing seasonal trends. The weekly inventory of photovoltaic components was 31.2GW, up 2.63% week - on - week and 2.97% month - on - month [56][59]. - **Export**: Data on the monthly net export of photovoltaic components are provided [58]. 5.5 Bidding - The weekly data of photovoltaic component winning bids show that the winning bid capacity was 4,322.84MW, up 162.03% week - on - week and 439.36% month - on - month, and the winning bid average price was 0.76 yuan/watt, up 2.70% week - on - week and 5.56% month - on - month [61]. 5.6 Installation and Application - Data on the monthly new installed capacity of domestic photovoltaics, green power generation, and the proportion of photovoltaic power generation in green power are provided, showing seasonal trends [64][67].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the price trends of softwood pulp and offset printing paper are expected to be described as "low recovery" and "weak stabilization" respectively. The price center of softwood pulp is expected to move slightly upward, while the price of offset printing paper is expected to remain weak and stable, mainly supported by costs [5]. - Overall, the futures prices of pulp and offset printing paper will fluctuate. In the medium - term, low - buying opportunities can be considered for pulp futures, and high - selling opportunities can be considered for the near - month contracts of offset printing paper [8]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Viewpoint Summary 3.1.1 Trend Forecast - In 2026, the supply expansion trend of softwood pulp will slow down, and the demand is expected to stabilize and rebound. However, the market sentiment is limited, and there are still upper limits, with inventory pressure needing continuous attention. The price of double - offset paper is expected to be mainly supported by costs and remain weak and stable [5]. 3.1.2 Strategy Outlook - Pulp and offset printing paper futures prices will fluctuate. Mid - term, consider low - buying for pulp futures and high - selling for near - month offset printing paper contracts [8]. 3.1.3 Risk Points - Risks include changes in macro - policies, significant changes in international trade situations, large - scale shutdowns or resumptions of pulp and paper mills, and restrictions on some supply and transportation channels [9]. 3.2 Market Review 3.2.1 Spot Price Review of Softwood Pulp and Double - Offset Paper - Softwood pulp spot prices declined this year, with a short - term increase in January - February due to domestic supply gaps. After reaching a high of about 6617 yuan/ton in early February, prices dropped by 17.84% by the end of November. Recent slight rebounds are due to traders' reluctance to sell and spot enterprise regulation. The spread between softwood and hardwood pulp prices has fallen to a reasonable range. Double - offset paper prices also declined after a slight increase in Q1, dropping by 13.02% from 5087.5 yuan/ton in mid - March to 4425.0 yuan/ton at the end of November, due to weak demand and over - supply [10][12][16]. 3.2.2 Futures Price Trend Review of Pulp and Offset Printing Paper - Pulp futures reached a high of 6204 yuan/ton in February, then declined, with a temporary halt in the decline in Q3 due to North American pulp mill maintenance expectations. After reaching a low of 4750 yuan/ton in mid - October, prices reversed and rose due to downstream paper mills' price increases, positive macro - sentiment, and news of a US pulp mill shutdown. Offset printing paper futures were listed in September, fluctuated in the first month, rose to 4360 yuan/ton due to paper mills' price support, and then dropped to 3980 yuan/ton, a decline of 8.72% [19]. 3.2.3 Continued Weak Overall Demand - Weak demand is a major factor for the weak pulp and double - offset paper prices. China's softwood pulp monthly apparent consumption in the first 10 months was 707.3 tons, up 2.84% year - on - year, with only 6, 7, 9 months above the average. European consumption of bleached softwood pulp was the lowest in a decade. Paper industry's start - up rates were low, with softwood pulp downstream demand improving slightly but still weak. Double - offset paper demand was even weaker, with the apparent consumption in the first 10 months at 666.7 tons, down 9.87% year - on - year [25]. 3.2.4 Supply Growth Slowed but Pressure Persisted - Pulp supply growth slowed this year, but the overall stock was still high. China's softwood pulp imports had low growth but a high base and increased since August. Paper pulp production increased significantly after mid - September, with a 17.43% year - on - year increase in early December. Global pulp shipments were relatively high, and those to China were lower than in 2023 but higher than last year. Double - offset paper's start - up rate was at a low, but production increased in the second half of the year, and the supply pressure remained due to new capacity [30][32]. 3.2.5 High Inventory and Low Profit - High inventory suppressed pulp and paper prices. China's pulp port inventory was above 200 tons for a long time this year, dropping to 199.3 tons by December 19. Double - offset paper inventory also increased, with both production enterprise and social inventories above the average. Most small and medium - sized enterprises in the softwood pulp and double - offset paper markets were in a loss - making state, with negative gross margins for Chinese softwood pulp since April last year [34][37]. 3.3 Core Focus Points 3.3.1 Macro Changes - Pulp is significantly affected by macro - factors. Interest rate cuts may reduce import costs. Policy changes and tariff adjustments can also impact the industry. For example, if Brazil's export tariff exemption to the US is removed, it may increase China's pulp supply pressure [41]. 3.3.2 Inventory Reduction - High inventory is a key factor suppressing pulp and paper prices. Pulp inventory has declined recently, and the reduction in available registered warehouse receipts due to the adjustment of delivery standards has provided some support to futures prices [42]. 3.3.3 Shutdown/Resumption of Pulp and Paper Mills - Shutdowns or resumptions of pulp and paper mills can affect supply and market sentiment. For example, Domtar's permanent shutdown of the Crofton pulp mill had a positive impact on futures prices [44]. 3.4 Valuation Feedback and Supply - Demand Outlook 3.4.1 Valuation: Relatively Reasonable - Pulp futures valuation is relatively reasonable, with the basis fluctuating and the number of warehouse receipts at a historical low. Offset printing paper futures valuation is currently weak, but the rising basis provides some support at the bottom. The volatility of both pulp and offset printing paper futures is expected to remain low in 2026 [45][47][50]. 3.4.2 Demand: Weak Stabilization - Pulp demand is expected to stabilize and rebound in 2026, with the "14th Five - Year Plan" promoting economic growth and the narrowing price spread between softwood and hardwood pulp potentially increasing softwood pulp demand. Double - offset paper demand is expected to be weak, with factors such as the decline in textbook demand and the popularity of paperless office, but policies like the "National Reading Promotion Regulations" may bring some positive effects [52][57]. 3.4.3 Supply: Pressure Converging - In 2026, the supply pressure of softwood pulp is expected to converge, with limited new capacity growth. Double - offset paper supply pressure remains due to continuous new capacity investment in recent years. Overall, the supply - demand situation of softwood pulp in 2026 is expected to be slightly better than this year, while double - offset paper supply and demand are expected to remain weak and stable [59][61][63].

Core Viewpoint - Nanhua Futures is set to officially list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, marking a significant milestone in its nearly two-decade internationalization strategy, with a clear development logic aimed at reshaping industry value innovation paths [1] Group 1: Business Performance and Structure - Nanhua Futures has established a diversified business system covering domestic futures brokerage, risk management, wealth management, and overseas financial services, ranking eighth among domestic futures companies by total revenue in 2024 and first among non-financial institution-backed futures companies [2] - The company's operating income is projected to grow from 954 million yuan in 2022 to 1.355 billion yuan in 2024, with profits increasing from 246 million yuan to 458 million yuan during the same period, demonstrating strong resilience [2] - The optimization of business structure is a key support, with client equity in traditional domestic futures brokerage increasing by 65.4% to 31.6 billion yuan from the end of 2022 to the end of 2024, while overseas financial services have become a core growth engine [2] Group 2: Client Structure and Fundraising - The number of corporate clients reached 5,279 and financial institution clients reached 1,872 by the first half of 2025, with revenue contribution from institutional clients continuously increasing, reducing reliance on individual investors and enhancing business resilience [3] - The global offering of H-shares is set at 108 million shares, with a net fundraising expected to be nearly 1.3 billion HKD, which will be fully injected into the core platform of Nanhua Futures' overseas business [3] Group 3: Internationalization Strategy - Nanhua Futures began its internationalization journey in 2006 and has established a presence in major financial centers including Hong Kong, Chicago, Singapore, and London, creating a 24-hour global financial service network [4] - The company has obtained 18 trading memberships and 15 clearing memberships from major global exchanges, with several qualifications unique to Chinese institutions, enhancing its competitive edge in international markets [4] Group 4: Industry Trends and Future Outlook - The increasing homogenization of the domestic futures industry has intensified competition, making overseas expansion a necessary choice for leading companies, with Nanhua Futures setting a benchmark for transformation from channel services to comprehensive solutions [5] - The establishment of the "A+H" dual capital platform enhances corporate governance and brand internationalization, driving the dual-wheel growth of domestic and overseas businesses [6] - Long-term, the scarcity of licenses, a global customer base, and innovative business layouts are core to Nanhua Futures' valuation reconstruction, with expectations for high growth in overseas business driven by the internationalization of Chinese enterprises and rising demand for risk management [6]

每经AI快讯，12月21日，南华期货（603093）公告，近日，公司境外全资孙公司NANHUA SINGAPORE PTE.LTD.收到ICE FuturesSingapore(以下简称"IFSG")以及ICE Clear Singapore(简称"ICSG") 的通知，获批成为IFSG的交易会员以及ICSG的清算会员，可以交易和清算IFSG上市的相关产品。 ...

Group 1 - Nanhua Futures (603093.SH) announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary, Nanhua Singapore PTE. LTD., has been approved as a trading member of ICE Futures Singapore (IFSG) and a clearing member of ICE Clear Singapore (ICSG) [1] - The approval allows the company to trade and clear products listed on IFSG [1]

Group 1 - The company disclosed the results of its overseas listing of H-shares on December 21, with a total issuance of 107.659 million shares [1] - The global offering included 16.1485 million shares for public sale in Hong Kong and 91.5105 million shares for international sale [1] - The estimated net proceeds from the global offering, after deducting underwriting commissions and other estimated expenses, is approximately HKD 1.203 billion, based on an H-share price of HKD 12 per share [1]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures industry is accelerating its internationalization, with Nanhua Futures set to officially list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on December 22, enhancing its capital layout and expanding its overseas business opportunities [1] Industry Opportunities and Growth - The domestic futures market is transitioning towards high-quality development driven by policy support and market demand, with a compound annual growth rate of 9.1% in trading volume expected from 2020 to 2024, reaching 98.68 trillion yuan by 2029 [2] - The increasing demand for risk hedging in the real economy, particularly due to commodity price volatility, is providing significant opportunities for the futures industry [2] Company Development and Competitive Position - Nanhua Futures has established itself as a leading player in the industry since its inception in 1996, ranking eighth among all domestic futures companies by total revenue in 2024 and first among non-financial institutions [4] - The company's overseas business has become a core growth driver, benefiting from favorable changes in the overseas interest rate environment and increased trading activity [4] Fundraising and Global Market Positioning - The IPO proceeds will be allocated to enhance global business layout, with 30% for Hong Kong, 30% for the UK, 20% for the US, 10% for Singapore, and 10% for operational funds, aligning with its existing service network across major financial centers [5] - Nanhua Futures possesses 17 international exchange memberships and 14 clearing seats, enabling comprehensive cross-border trading and settlement services [5] Strategic Alignment and Future Potential - The listing aligns with the dual opportunities of the domestic futures industry's internationalization and growing cross-border demand, positioning Nanhua Futures to further leverage its existing business advantages and market foundation [6] - The company's internationalization journey is seen as a new starting point, potentially serving as a reference model for the global exploration of the domestic futures industry [6]

人民财讯12月21日电，南华期货（603093）12月21日披露境外上市股份(H股)配发结果。公司此次全球 发售H股发行股数为10765.9万股(整体协调人同意不行使超额配售权)，其中，香港公开发售1614.85万 股；国际发售9151.05万股。根据每股H股发售价12港元计算，经扣除全球发售相关承销佣金及其他估计 费用后，公司将收取的全球发售所得款项净额估计约12.03亿港元。 ...