Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The spot price of caustic soda is in a downward channel but the decline has slowed, with a possible stabilization expectation. The short - term basis has been repaired. In the medium term, the weak expectation persists due to the concentrated resumption of maintenance and the gradual launch of new production capacity, which will significantly increase the supply - side pressure. Even if there is an increase in demand, it is difficult to reverse the oversupply situation [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Caustic Soda Price Forecast and Volatility - The monthly price range forecast for caustic soda is 2200 - 2400. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 15.20%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility over 3 years is 5.1% [3]. 3.2 Risk Management Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short caustic soda futures (SH2509) with a 50% hedging ratio in the 2400 - 2450 range to lock in profits and cover production costs. They can also sell call options (SH509C2400) with a 50% ratio in the 30 - 40 range to collect premiums and reduce costs, and lock in the spot selling price if the price rises [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular inventory hoping to purchase based on orders, they can buy caustic soda futures (SH2509) with a 50% hedging ratio in the 2200 - 2250 range to lock in procurement costs in advance. They can also sell put options (SH509P2200) with a 50% ratio in the 50 - 60 range to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, and lock in the spot buying price if the price drops [3]. 3.3 Core Contradictions - Short - term contradictions are limited; in the medium - to - long term, there is production capacity launch pressure, and the overall expectation is weak [4]. 3.4利多解读 - The decline in spot prices has slowed, with a possible stabilization expectation; the near - end inventory is not high, and there are limited substantial contradictions [5]. 3.5利空解读 - In the medium - to - long term, there is an oversupply pressure. The supply side has a concentrated production capacity launch expectation, and the demand increment is insufficient to support a market reversal, which limits the upside [6]. 3.6 Caustic Soda Futures Prices and Spreads - **Futures Prices**: On July 1, 2025, the price of the caustic soda 05 contract was 2410 (up 27 or 1.13% from the previous day), the 09 contract was 2358 (up 39 or 1.68%), and the 01 contract was 2354 (up 30 or 1.29%) [7]. - **Spreads**: The 5 - 9 spread was 52 (down 12 from the previous day), the 9 - 1 spread was 4 (up 9), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 56 (up 3) [7]. - **Basis**: The 05 contract basis (Shandong Jinling) was - 66 (down 58 from the previous day), and the 09 contract basis (Shandong Jinling) was - 14 (down 70) [7]. 3.7 Caustic Soda Factory Prices and Market Prices - **32% Caustic Soda Factory Prices**: On July 1, 2025, the prices of some brands in different regions changed. For example, Shandong Jinling's price was 2344 (down 31.25 or - 1.3% from the previous day), and Shandong Hengtong's was 2563 (down 63 or - 2.4%) [8]. - **50% Caustic Soda Factory Prices**: Jinling's price was 2380 (down 60 or - 2.5% from the previous day) [8]. - **Flake Caustic Soda Market Prices**: Prices in various regions remained unchanged on July 1, 2025, such as 3150 in Shandong, 3311 in North China, etc. [9]. 3.8 Caustic Soda Grade/Regional Spreads - On July 1, 2025, some spreads changed. For example, the spread between Shandong 50% caustic soda and 32% caustic soda was 36 (down 28.75 from the previous day), and the spread between 50% caustic soda in Jiangsu and Shandong was 255 (down 103) [9]. 3.9 Caustic Soda Futures Spread Seasonality - Seasonal charts of caustic soda futures spreads (07 - 09, 09 - 11, 11 - 01, 09 - 01) and basis (09, 01 contracts in Shandong) are provided [10][11][12][13].

证券代码：603093 证券简称：南华期货 公告编号：2025-045 南华期货股份有限公司 关于股份回购进展公告 已累计回购股份 5,681,234 股，占公司总股本的比例为 0.93%，购买的最高价为 9.37 元/股、最低价为 8.55 元/股，已支付的总金额为 50,088,766.66 元（不含印 花税、交易佣金等交易费用）。 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 南华期货股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于 2024 年 7 月 8 日召开第四届 董事会第十五次会议，审议通过《关于回购股份方案的议案》，同意以不低于人民 币 5,000 万元（含本数），不超过人民币 10,000 万元（含本数）的自有资金通过 集中竞价交易方式回购公司股份，拟用于后续实施员工持股计划。回购股份价格 不超过 13.90 元/股（含本数），回购期限自董事会审议通过回购方案之日起 12 个 月内。具体内容详见公司披露的《南华期货股份有限公司关于以集中竞价交易方 式回购股份的方案》（公告编号：2024-024）、《南华期货股份有限公司 ...

Group 1 - The diversified financial sector continues to decline, with Hongye Futures (001236) and Jingbeifang (002987) hitting the daily limit down [1] - Nanhua Futures (603093) has dropped over 9%, indicating significant market pressure [1] - Other companies such as Ruida Futures (002961), Xinli Financial (600318), and Sifang Jingchuang (300468) are also experiencing notable declines [1]

Report Information - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Copper Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: July 1, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Nanhua Non - Ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Copper Price and Volatility - Latest Price: 79,870 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [2] - Current Volatility: 9.17%, and the current volatility's historical percentile is 9.6% [2] Copper Risk Management Suggestions Inventory Management - Scenario: High finished - product inventory, worried about price decline - Strategy: Sell 75% of Shanghai Copper Main Futures Contracts at around 82,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of CU2508C82000 call options when volatility is relatively stable [2] Raw Material Management - Scenario: Low raw material inventory, worried about price increase - Strategy: Buy 75% of Shanghai Copper Main Futures Contracts at around 75,000 yuan/ton [2] News and Factors - Fundamental Situation: Stable [3] - Bullish Factors: Sino - US tariff policy easing and lower inventory levels [4] - Bearish Factors: Tariff policy reversals, reduced global demand due to tariff policies, the Fed keeping high interest rates, the US dollar index hovering at a low level, and increased Fed rate - cut expectations [5][6][8] Copper Futures and Spot Data Futures Data - Shanghai Copper Main: 79,870 yuan/ton, daily change 0, daily change rate 0% - Shanghai Copper Continuous 1: 79,870 yuan/ton, daily change - 50, daily change rate - 0.06% - Shanghai Copper Continuous 3: 79,440 yuan/ton, daily change 0, daily change rate 0% - LME Copper 3M: 9,878 dollars/ton, daily change - 1, daily change rate - 0.01% - Shanghai - London Ratio: 7.91, daily change 0.08, daily change rate 1.02% [7] Spot Data - Shanghai Non - Ferrous 1 Copper: 79,990 yuan/ton, daily change - 135, daily change rate - 0.17% - Shanghai Wumaotrade: 79,935 yuan/ton, daily change - 225, daily change rate - 0.28% - Guangdong Southern Reserve: 79,890 yuan/ton, daily change - 290, daily change rate - 0.36% - Yangtze Non - Ferrous: 80,090 yuan/ton, daily change - 210, daily change rate - 0.26% [9] Copper Scrap - to - Refined Spread - Current Tax - included Scrap - to - Refined Spread: 2,131.28 yuan/ton, daily change 166.39, daily change rate 8.47% - Reasonable Tax - included Scrap - to - Refined Spread: 1,501.1 yuan/ton, daily change 0.6, daily change rate 0.04% - Tax - included Price Advantage: 630.18 yuan/ton, daily change 165.79, daily change rate 35.7% - Current Tax - Excluded Scrap - to - Refined Spread: 6,810 yuan/ton, daily change 160, daily change rate 2.41% - Reasonable Tax - Excluded Scrap - to - Refined Spread: 6,259.63 yuan/ton, daily change 4.16, daily change rate 0.07% - Tax - Excluded Price Advantage: 550.37 yuan/ton, daily change 155.84, daily change rate 39.5% [11] Copper Warehouse Receipts and Inventories Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Receipts - Total Shanghai Copper Warehouse Receipts: 25,851 tons, daily change 505, daily change rate 1.99% - Total International Copper Warehouse Receipts: 2,503 tons, daily change 1,004, daily change rate 66.98% [14] LME Copper Inventory - Total LME Copper Inventory: 90,625 tons, change - 650, change rate - 0.71% - European LME Copper Inventory: 31,550 tons, change - 2,625, change rate - 7.68% - Asian LME Copper Inventory: 59,725 tons, change 825, change rate 1.4% - North American LME Copper Inventory: 0 tons, change 0, change rate - 100% [16] COMEX Copper Inventory - Total COMEX Copper Inventory: 209,281 tons, weekly change 8,084, weekly change rate 4.02% - Total COMEX Registered Warehouse Receipts: 110,017 tons, weekly change 10,551, weekly change rate 1.34% - Total COMEX Cancelled Warehouse Receipts: 99,264 tons, weekly change - 70, weekly change rate - 0.07% [18] Copper Import Profit and Processing Fees - Copper Import Profit and Loss: - 2,108.67 yuan/ton, daily change 881.22, daily change rate - 29.47% - Copper Concentrate TC: - 43.57 dollars/ton, daily change - 0.44, daily change rate 1.02% [19]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The medium to long - term trend of precious metals may be bullish. Since late April, London gold has been in a range - bound oscillation. Short - term technical patterns show weakness and pressure, but the daily line has regained the $3300 level. Attention should be paid to the effectiveness of this support. The next support is at $3250, and if it breaks, it may further decline to the previous low of $3120. The resistance is in the $3330 - 3350 area. London silver should focus on the support around $35.3, with strong support in the $34.5 - 35 area, and resistances at $36.2 and $36.8. The operation strategy is to buy on dips [6]. Summary by Directory Market Review - On Monday, the precious metals market rebounded after a decline. Among surrounding assets, the US stock market rose, the US Treasury yield declined, the US dollar index dropped, and Bitcoin fluctuated. COMEX gold 2508 contract closed at $3315 per ounce, up 0.83%; COMEX silver 2509 contract closed at $36.33 per ounce, down 0.11%. SHFE gold 2508 main contract closed at 767.58 yuan per gram, down 0.62%; SHFE silver 2508 contract closed at 8762 yuan per kilogram, down 0.54% [2]. - In terms of trade tariffs, Trump said there was no need to extend the July 9 deadline and would set tariffs for each country, threatening to impose a 25% tariff on Japanese cars. The EU was willing to accept the US "benchmark tariff" but sought exemptions for key industries. Canada made concessions and cancelled the digital service tax, and the US and Canada would resume trade negotiations to reach an agreement by July 21. South Korea's top priority was to obtain a tariff extension [2]. Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - According to CME "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 79.8%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 20.2%. In September, the probability of unchanged rates is 5.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 75.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 18.8%. In October, the probability of unchanged rates is 1.5%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 24.6%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 60.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 13.7% [3]. - In terms of long - term funds, SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 2.29 tons to 952.53 tons, and iShares Silver ETF holdings decreased by 39.58 tons to 14826.61 tons. SHFE silver inventory increased by 4.1 tons to 1299.8 tons, and SGX silver inventory decreased by 21 tons to 1357.8 tons as of the week ending June 20 [3]. This Week's Focus - This week, focus on the US non - farm payrolls report on Thursday night. The US Senate is preparing to vote on the Trump administration's "Great Beauty" bill, aiming to pass it before July 4. On Tuesday at 21:30, central bank governors from major economies will have a panel discussion. On Friday, due to the US Independence Day holiday, COMEX precious metals trading will end at 01:00 Beijing time on the 5th [4]. Precious Metals Spot and Futures Price Table - SHFE gold main - continuous contract is at 767.58 yuan per gram, up 1.18 yuan or 0.15%; SGX gold TD is at 764.15 yuan per gram, up 1.07 yuan or 0.14%; CME gold main contract is at $3315 per ounce, up $28.9 or 0.88%. SHFE silver main - continuous contract is at 8762 yuan per kilogram, down 30 yuan or 0.34%; SGX silver TD is at 8728 yuan per kilogram, down 20 yuan or 0.23%; CME silver main contract is at $36.33 per ounce, up $0.165 or 0.46%. SHFE - TD gold is at 3.43 yuan per gram, up 0.11 yuan or 3.31%; SHFE - TD silver is at 34 yuan per kilogram, down 10 yuan or 91.3%. The CME gold - silver ratio is 91.2469, up 0.3828 or 0.42% [7]. Inventory and Position Table - SHFE gold inventory is 18237 kilograms, unchanged; CME gold inventory is 1152.3287 tons, down 0.0042 tons. SHFE gold position is 155821 lots, up 25999 lots or 20.03%; SPDR gold position is 952.53 tons, down 2.29 tons or - 0.24%. SHFE silver inventory is 1299.756 tons, up 4.093 tons or 0.32%; CME silver inventory is 15542.2557 tons, up 18.7987 tons or 0.12%; SGX silver inventory is 1357.845 tons, down 21.03 tons or - 1.53%. SHFE silver position is 277702 lots, down 37746 lots or - 11.97%; SLV silver position is 14826.612625 tons, down 39.5722 tons or - 0.27% [16]. Stock, Bond, and Commodity Summary - The US dollar index is at 96.8103, down 0.4513 or - 0.46%; the US dollar against the Chinese yuan is at 7.16, down 0.0043 or - 0.06%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is at 44094.77 points, up 275.5 points or 0.63%. WTI crude oil spot is at $65.11 per barrel, down $0.41 or - 0.63%. LmeS copper 03 is at $9878 per ton, down $1 or - 0.01%. The 10 - year US Treasury yield is at 4.24%, down 0.05 or - 1.17%. The 10 - year US real interest rate is at 1.95, down 0.05 or - 2.5%. The 10 - 2 - year US Treasury yield spread is at 0.52, down 0.04 or - 7.14% [21][23].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of tin remain stable. There are both positive and negative factors affecting the tin market. Positive factors include the easing of Sino - US tariff policies, the semiconductor sector being in an expansion cycle, and Myanmar's production resumption falling short of expectations. Negative factors are the volatility of tariff policies, Myanmar's production resumption, and the semiconductor sector's slowdown in expansion and transition to a contraction cycle [3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price and Volatility - The latest closing price of tin is 268,110 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 245,000 - 263,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 15.18%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 28.8% [2]. 3.2 Risk Management Suggestions - **Inventory Management**: For those with high finished - product inventory and worried about price drops, it is recommended to short the main Shanghai tin futures contract at around 290,000 yuan/ton with a 100% hedging ratio and sell call options (SN2508C275000) at a suitable volatility with a 25% hedging ratio [2]. - **Raw Material Management**: For those with low raw - material inventory and worried about price increases, it is recommended to long the main Shanghai tin futures contract at around 230,000 yuan/ton with a 50% hedging ratio and sell put options (SN2508P245000) at a suitable volatility with a 25% hedging ratio [2]. 3.3 Futures and Spot Data - **Futures Data**: The latest prices of Shanghai tin futures (main, continuous 1, and continuous 3) are 268,110 yuan/ton, 268,110 yuan/ton, and 267,880 yuan/ton respectively, with no daily change. The LME tin 3M price is 33,565 US dollars/ton, down 245 US dollars (- 0.72%), and the Shanghai - London ratio is 8.01, up 0.15 (1.91%) [6]. - **Spot Data (Weekly)**: The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingots is 267,200 yuan/ton, up 5,400 yuan (2.06%); 1 tin premium is 600 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan (- 14.29%); 40% tin concentrate is 255,200 yuan/ton, up 5,400 yuan (2.16%); 60% tin concentrate is 259,200 yuan/ton, up 5,400 yuan (2.13%); the price of solder bar (60A) in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 173,750 yuan/ton, up 3,500 yuan (2.06%); the price of solder bar (63A) in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 181,250 yuan/ton, up 3,500 yuan (1.97%); the price of lead - free solder is 273,250 yuan/ton, up 5,000 yuan (1.86%) [10][13]. 3.4 Import and Processing Data - The latest tin import profit and loss is - 17,212.76 yuan/ton, down 2,572.25 yuan (17.57%); 40% tin ore processing fee is 12,200 yuan/ton with no change; 60% tin ore processing fee is 10,550 yuan/ton with no change [15]. 3.5 Inventory Data - **Shanghai Futures Exchange Inventory (Daily)**: The total tin warehouse receipt quantity is 6,750 tons, up 199 tons (3.04%); the warehouse receipt quantity in Guangdong is 4,214 tons, up 24 tons (0.57%); the warehouse receipt quantity in Shanghai is 1,611 tons, up 175 tons (12.19%); the total LME tin inventory is 2,175 tons with no change [17].

Group 1 - The diversified financial sector is experiencing significant fluctuations and adjustments [1] - Hongye Futures (001236) has seen a decline of over 7% [1] - Nanhua Futures (603093) and Cuiwei Co., Ltd. (603123) have both dropped by more than 6% [1] - Ruida Futures (002961) and Yong'an Futures (600927) are also following the downward trend [1]

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - Domestic commodity futures experienced mixed performance from June 23 to June 27, with the black and base metal sectors leading gains, influenced by the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, while fuel, crude oil, and European shipping routes faced declines [1] - In the energy and chemical sector, fuel prices fell by 10.73%, crude oil by 12.02%, while lithium carbonate rose by 7.47% [1] - The black metal sector saw increases in coke by 2.67%, coking coal by 6.60%, and iron ore by 1.92% [1] Group 2: Oil Price Dynamics - Brent crude oil prices fell by 12.46% to $66.34 per barrel, while U.S. crude oil dropped by 12.12% to $65.07 per barrel due to supply-demand dynamics [2] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that global oil demand growth is expected to slow, with projections for 2025/2026 revised down to 720,000 to 740,000 barrels per day [2][3] - Analysts noted that while geopolitical tensions may support oil prices in the short term, long-term demand expectations are being adjusted downward, particularly with OPEC+ planning to discuss production levels [4] Group 3: Copper Market Insights - The main copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange saw a weekly increase of 2.47%, closing at 79,920 yuan per ton, with a volatility of 2.42% [5] - Supply remains stable with sufficient copper ore port inventories, but increased export intentions are tightening domestic supply [6] - Global copper demand is projected to double by 2035, but supply may face a significant shortfall of up to 30% [7] Group 4: Industrial Profit Trends - The National Bureau of Statistics reported a 9.1% year-on-year decline in profits for industrial enterprises in May, with a cumulative decline of 1.1% for the first five months [9] - Equipment manufacturing and "new" industries showed profit expansion, while consumer manufacturing remained sluggish [9] - The profit structure remains concentrated in midstream manufacturing, with potential support from improved infrastructure investment and declining raw material prices [9][10] Group 5: U.S. Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve is currently in a wait-and-see mode regarding interest rate adjustments, with officials indicating a lack of urgency for rate cuts amid economic uncertainties [12] - Recent data revisions showed a contraction in U.S. GDP for the first quarter, raising concerns about economic growth and influencing market expectations for future Fed actions [13][14]

证券代码：603093 证券简称：南华期货 公告编号：2025-041 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 南华期货股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）第四届董事会任期届满。根据 《中华人民共和国公司法》《中华人民共和国证券法》《上海证券交易所股票上 市规则》及《公司章程》等相关规定，公司进行了董事会的换届选举工作。现将 有关情况公告如下： 吕跃龙先生，1966 年 3 月出生，中国国籍，大专。曾任江山市委书记、衢 州市副市长，现任横店集团控股有限公司董事、党委书记、副总裁。 徐文财先生，1966 年 1 月出生，中国国籍，博士，副教授，注册会计师， 正高级经济师。曾任浙江大学工商管理系副主任；现任横店集团控股有限公司董 事、资深副总裁，兼任普洛药业股份有限公司董事、横店集团东磁股份有限公司 董事、英洛华科技股份有限公司董事、横店集团得邦照明股份有限公司董事、横 店影视股份有限公司董事，南华期货股份有限公司董事、浙江新纳材料科技股份 有限公司董事，杭州海康机器人股份有限公司独立董事。 胡天高先生，1965 年 9 月出 ...

Core Points - Nanhua Futures Co., Ltd. has revised its Articles of Association and related systems applicable after the issuance and listing of H shares in response to regulatory requirements and company needs [1][2][3] - The revisions include changes to the definitions of shareholder meetings, legal representatives, and the responsibilities of directors and senior management [1][2][3] - The company aims to ensure compliance with both domestic and Hong Kong regulations while protecting the rights of shareholders, creditors, and clients [1][2][3] Summary of Articles of Association Revisions - The term "shareholders' meeting" has been changed to "shareholders' assembly" to align with the new regulations [1] - The legal representative of the company will now be elected by the board of directors, and the responsibilities of the legal representative have been clarified [1][2] - The company will bear civil liability for actions taken by the legal representative in the course of their duties, with provisions for recourse against the representative in cases of fault [1][2] - The company’s assets will be divided into equal shares, and shareholders will be liable only to the extent of their subscribed shares [1][2] - The company’s shares will be issued in registered form, ensuring equal rights for all shareholders of the same class [1][2] - The company’s capital structure and the issuance of shares will adhere to principles of openness, fairness, and justice [1][2] - The company will not provide financial assistance for the acquisition of its shares, except under specific conditions approved by the board [1][2] - The company’s operational scope includes futures brokerage, financial futures brokerage, investment consulting, asset management, and securities investment fund distribution [1][2]