Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The performance of treasury bonds is stronger than expected, remaining firm in an environment of rising risk appetite and A-shares, and strongly recovering losses at the end of the session. The main reason is the further loosening of funds. The current market sentiment is positive, but there are still disturbances in risk preference such as the implementation of the Sino-US agreement, and the sustainability of low capital interest rates also needs attention. Maintain the previous view of gradually taking profits at the upper edge of the oscillation range [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Disk Review - Treasury bond futures opened slightly higher, then oscillated downward and turned negative during the session. In the afternoon, they accelerated their decline and then rebounded. At the end of the session, long-term contracts closed slightly lower, while medium and short-term contracts closed higher. In terms of funds, there was a significant improvement. Today, 509.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured, and the central bank conducted new operations of 5.72 billion yuan, with a net maturity of more than 452.1 billion yuan. However, the overnight xrepo rate dropped to 1.3% before the market, continuing to decline [1] Intraday News - According to Bloomberg, the Trump administration has cancelled some export license requirements for Chinese chip design software. According to the South China Morning Post, Siemens, Synopsys, and Cadence have all stated that the US government has cancelled export control measures on some Chinese chip design software this Thursday. Three global leading electronic design automation (EDA) software developers have all stated that their relevant products will no longer require special approval for export to China in the future [2] Market Judgment - The performance of treasury bonds is stronger than expected, remaining firm in an environment of rising risk appetite and A-shares, and strongly recovering losses at the end of the session. The main reason is the further loosening of funds. The current market sentiment is positive, but there are still disturbances in risk preference such as the implementation of the Sino-US agreement, and the sustainability of low capital interest rates also needs attention. Maintain the previous view of gradually taking profits at the upper edge of the oscillation range [3] Data Overview - **Contract Price and Position Changes**: TS2509 closed at 102.506, unchanged from the previous day; TF2509 closed at 106.23, down 0.01 from the previous day; T2509 closed at 109.07, down 0.04 from the previous day; TL2509 closed at 121.07, down 0.09 from the previous day. In terms of positions, TS contract positions increased by 211 to 124,622 hands; TF contract positions increased by 747 to 194,961 hands; T contract positions increased by 1,264 to 243,215 hands; TL contract positions decreased by 636 to 145,598 hands [3][4] - **Basis and Trading Volume**: TS basis (CTD) was -0.0329, down 0.0115 from the previous day; TF basis (CTD) was -0.0295, down 0.021 from the previous day; T basis (CTD) was 0.1301, up 0.0704 from the previous day; TL basis (CTD) was 0.3617, down 0.028 from the previous day. In terms of trading volume, TS main contract trading volume was 24,843 hands, down 101 from the previous day; TF main contract trading volume was 51,486 hands, up 5,555 from the previous day; T main contract trading volume was 64,924 hands, up 6,969 from the previous day; TL main contract trading volume was 72,609 hands, up 3,741 from the previous day [4] - **Funding Rates and Trading Volume**: DR001 was 1.3597%, down 0.0076 from the previous day; DR007 was 1.5053%, down 0.0404 from the previous day; DR014 was 1.5693%, down 0.0501 from the previous day. In terms of trading volume, DR001 trading volume was 239.693147 billion yuan, unchanged from the previous day; DR007 trading volume was 8.839759 billion yuan, unchanged from the previous day; DR014 trading volume was 0.656805 billion yuan, unchanged from the previous day [4]

Report Information - Report Name: Nanhua Log Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: July 3, 2025 - Title: Narrow Fluctuation, Lack of Driving Force - Analyst: Song Jipeng [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information provided Core View - The 09 contract rose 0.25% today, added 626 lots, and closed at 792.5. The market is in narrow - range consolidation with a lack of short - term market drivers. Although there is a certain peak - season expectation on the consumption side, the expected increase is limited. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term. The bottom price of the 09 contract has strong short - term support, and one can sell the lg2509P750 contract when the price of lg2509 drops [3][4] Summary by Directory Log Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for logs is 740 - 820, the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 16.28%, and the current volatility's historical percentile over 3 years is 67.4% [2] Log Hedging Strategy - **Inventory Management**: When log imports are high and inventory is at a high level, and one is worried about price drops, with a long spot exposure, it is recommended to short log futures (lg2509) to lock in profits and make up for production costs, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 800 - 820 [2] - **Procurement Management**: When the regular procurement inventory is low and one hopes to purchase according to order situations, with a short spot exposure, it is recommended to buy log futures (lg2509) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 750 - 800 [2] Core Contradiction - The 09 contract rose 0.25% and added 626 lots, closing at 792.5. The market is in narrow - range consolidation. On the spot side, driven by the demand for laminated wood, the quotes of large A - grade logs in Shandong and Jiangsu increased, while the prices of medium and small A - grade logs remained unchanged. In the last week of June (June 23 - 29), the total number of departing log ships from New Zealand was 13, the same as the previous period. The number of ships directly bound for China was 10, with a shipping volume of 370,000 JASm³, the same as the previous period but with a volume decrease of 10,000 JASm³ [3] New Zealand Log Market - The AWG quote in New Zealand in June was the same as in May, with the A - grade log quote at 116 New Zealand dollars per JASm³. The estimated arrival price of Chinese ships in July is 113 - 115 US dollars per JASm³, showing a slight increase. The log supply in New Zealand decreased by about 10% due to seasonal factors, corresponding to a seasonal decline in domestic inventory. The New Zealand log market faces difficulties, including the impact of winter climate leading to a seasonal production off - season, continuous oversupply of structural saw - timber, and significant suppression of market demand by high interest rates and credit tightening, resulting in a continuous decline in the start - up rate of residential and commercial construction projects. The average freight for loading a log ship from two ports in the North Island to China is 30 US dollars per JASm³. The weakening US dollar and rising freight rates support the CFR quote. The previous low of the 09 contract has relatively strong support recently [4] 利多解读 - Traders are willing to jointly support prices due to continuous import losses; import costs continue to rise; the overall sentiment of commodities has warmed up [8] 利空解读 - The outflow of delivery products from the 07 contract may suppress the spot price; the shipping volume of foreign suppliers continues to increase [8] Spot and Basis - The report provides detailed spot prices, price changes, and basis data for different specifications of logs at different ports on July 3, 2025, and gives the calculation formula for the converted basis [6][8][9] Log Data Overview - **Supply**: The radiation pine import volume in May 2025 was 1.69 million m³, a month - on - month increase of 40,000 m³ and a year - on - year decrease of 2.3% [10] - **Inventory**: As of June 27, 2025, the port inventory in China was 3.36 million m³, a week - on - week increase of 10,000 m³ and a year - on - year increase of 7.0%. The port inventory in Shandong was 2,011,000 m³, a week - on - week increase of 21,000 m³ and a year - on - year increase of 8.8%. The port inventory in Jiangsu was 1,114,500 m³, a week - on - week increase of 4,655 m³ and a year - on - year increase of 47.1% [10] - **Demand**: As of June 27, 2025, the average daily log outbound volume at ports was 65,700 m³, a week - on - week increase of 2,100 m³ and a year - on - year decrease of 17.4%. The average daily outbound volume in Shandong was 35,500 m³, a week - on - week increase of 1,500 m³ and a year - on - year increase of 35.0%. The average daily outbound volume in Jiangsu was 22,200 m³, a week - on - week decrease of 400 m³ and a year - on - year increase of 0.5% [10] - **Profit**: As of July 4, 2025, the radiation pine import profit was - 44 yuan/m³, a week - on - week increase of 1 yuan/m³; the spruce import profit was - 64 yuan/m³, a week - on - week decrease of 3 yuan/m³ [10] - **Main Spot Prices**: The prices of some main log specifications at ports on July 3, 2025, showed no change compared to the previous period, with varying year - on - year decreases [10]

南华期货股份有限公司 2025 年第二次临时股东大会 会议资料 2025 年 7 月 14 日·杭州 | 目录 | | --- | | 一、2025 | 年第二次临时股东大会参会须知 3 | | --- | --- | | 二、2025 | 年第二次临时股东大会会议议程 5 | 三、议案 | 议案 | 1：关于取消监事会并修订《公司章程》及相关议事规则的议案 6 | | --- | --- | | 议案 | 2：关于修订《独立董事工作制度》的议案 57 | | 议案 | 3：关于修订《募集资金管理办法》的议案 58 | | 议案 | 4：关于修订《关联交易管理制度》的议案 59 | | 议案 | 5：关于修订《对外投资管理制度》的议案 60 | | 议案 | 6：关于修订《会计师事务所选聘制度》的议案 61 | | 议案 | 7：关于制定《融资与对外担保管理制度》的议案 62 | | 议案 | 8：关于修订公司于 H 股发行上市后适用的《公司章程（草案）》及相 | | | 关议事规则（草案）的议案 67 | | 议案 | 9：关于修订公司于 H 股发行上市后适用的《独立董事工作制度（草 | | | 案）》的议 ...

Core Viewpoint - The corn starch market is experiencing slight price increases, with the benchmark price rising to 2944.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a 0.14% increase compared to the beginning of the month [1] Price Overview - As of July 3, 2023, various corn starch prices are reported, with edible grade starch priced at 2900 CNY/ton in Henan province and food-grade starch at 3000 CNY/ton in Zhengzhou [2] - The futures market shows the main corn starch contract closing at 2731.00 CNY/ton, with a slight decline of 0.15% [2] Production and Processing Data - From June 26 to July 2, 2023, the total corn processing volume reached 544,700 tons, a decrease of 0.15 million tons from the previous week, while corn starch production increased to 264,900 tons, up by 0.02 million tons [3] - The operating rate for corn processing plants is reported at 51.2%, an increase of 0.05% from the previous week [3] Market Analysis - According to Nanhua Futures, the corn starch market is currently stable, with companies primarily fulfilling previous orders and maintaining a watchful stance on raw material prices [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View - The medium - to long - term trend of precious metals may be bullish. Since late April, London gold has been in a range - bound oscillation, but the short - term trend has strengthened. The support level for London gold is 3330, with a key support at 3300, and resistance levels at 3365 and then 3400. The support for London silver has moved up to 36.2, and the resistance is in the range of 36.6 - 36.8. The operation strategy is to buy on dips [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Wednesday, the precious metals market was generally strong. Peripheral assets such as US stocks, US bonds, the US dollar index, Bitcoin, crude oil, and the Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Index all performed well. COMEX gold 2508 contract closed at $3368.7 per ounce, up 0.56%; US silver 2509 contract closed at $36.79 per ounce, up 1.08%. SHFE gold 2508 main contract closed at 776.04 yuan per gram, up 0.7%; SHFE silver 2508 contract closed at 8747 yuan per kilogram, up 0.09%. Trump's "Great Beautiful" bill was blocked in the House of Representatives, and the infighting within the Republican Party escalated. The US "small non - farm" ADP employment data released on Wednesday evening was unexpectedly poor, with a decrease of 33,000, turning negative for the first time in more than three years, slightly increasing the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut this year [2]. 3.2 Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 74.7%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 25.3%. In September, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 7.6%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 69.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 22.8%. In October, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 2.7%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 29.8%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 52.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point rate cut is 14.6%. The SPDR Gold ETF's holdings decreased by 0.57 tons to 947.66 tons, and the iShares Silver ETF's holdings increased by 42.4 tons to 14896.01 tons. SHFE silver inventory decreased by 0.1 tons to 1338.8 tons, and SGX silver inventory decreased by 34.6 tons to 1323.2 tons in the week ending June 27 [3]. 3.3 This Week's Focus - This week, the main data to focus on is the US non - farm payrolls report on Thursday night. In terms of events, attention should be paid to the progress of the US House of Representatives' vote on Trump's "Great Beautiful" bill. Also, due to the US Independence Day holiday on Friday, COMEX precious metals trading will end early at 01:00 Beijing time on the 5th [4]. 3.4 Price and Inventory Tables - **Precious Metal Futures and Spot Prices**: SHFE gold main - continuous contract was at 776.04 yuan per gram, down 0.01%; SGX gold TD was at 770.33 yuan per gram, down 0.22%; CME gold main contract was at $3368.7 per ounce, up 0.56%. SHFE silver main - continuous contract was at 8747 yuan per kilogram, down 0.72%; SGX silver TD was at 8737 yuan per kilogram, down 0.77%; CME silver main contract was at $36.79 per ounce, up 1.5%. SHFE - TD gold was at 5.71 yuan per gram, up 40.64%; SHFE - TD silver was at 10 yuan per kilogram, down 85.29%; CME gold - silver ratio was 91.5656, down 0.93% [7]. - **Inventory and Holdings**: SHFE gold inventory was 18,456 kilograms, up 0.02%; CME gold inventory was 1152.3287 tons, unchanged; SHFE gold holdings were 168,596 lots, up 0.68%; SPDR gold holdings were 947.66 tons, down 0.06%. SHFE silver inventory was 1338.659 tons, down 0.01%; CME silver inventory was 15,557.4558 tons, down 0.2%; SGX silver inventory was 1323.225 tons, down 2.55%; SHFE silver holdings were 249,023 lots, down 5.93%; SLV silver holdings were 14,869.009712 tons, up 0.29% [17][18]. 3.5 Stock, Bond, and Commodity Overview - The US dollar index was 96.7751, up 0.12%; the US dollar against the Chinese yuan was 7.1634, down 0.01%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was 44,484.42 points, down 0.02%. WTI crude oil spot was at $67.45 per barrel, up 3.06%. LmeS copper 03 was at $10,010 per ton, up 0.67%. The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.3%, up 0.94%; the 10 - year US real interest rate was 2%, up 1.52%; the 10 - 2 year US Treasury yield spread was 0.52%, up 8.33% [23].

Report Information - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Copper Risk Management Daily Report - Date: July 3, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Copper Price and Volatility - Latest Price: 80,540 yuan/ton - Price Range Forecast (Monthly): 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton - Current Volatility: 9.38% - Current Volatility Historical Percentile: 10.7% [2] Copper Risk Management Suggestions Inventory Management - Situation: High finished product inventory, worried about price decline - Spot Exposure: Long - Strategy: Short Shanghai Copper Main Futures Contract (75% at around 82,000 yuan/ton), Sell Call Options (25% when volatility is relatively stable) - Hedging Tools: Shanghai Copper Main Futures Contract, CU2508C82000 - Buying/Selling Direction: Sell Raw Material Management - Situation: Low raw material inventory, worried about price increase - Spot Exposure: Short - Strategy: Long Shanghai Copper Main Futures Contract (75% at around 75,000 yuan/ton) - Hedging Tools: Shanghai Copper Main Futures Contract - Buying/Selling Direction: Buy [2] Important News - The fundamentals remain stable [3] Factors Affecting Copper Prices Bullish Factors - Easing of Sino-US tariff policies - Decrease in LME inventory levels [4] Bearish Factors - Tariff policy reversals - Decrease in global demand due to tariff policies - The Fed maintains high interest rates - Low dollar index - Increased expectation of Fed rate cuts [5][6][8] Copper Futures and Spot Data Futures Data - Shanghai Copper Main: 80,540 yuan/ton, 0 change, 0% change rate - Shanghai Copper Continuous 1: 80,540 yuan/ton, -100 change, -0.12% change rate - Shanghai Copper Continuous 3: 80,050 yuan/ton, 0 change, 0% change rate - LME Copper 3M: 10,010 dollars/ton, 67 change, 0.67% change rate - Shanghai-London Ratio: 7.96, 0.01 change, 0.13% change rate [7] Spot Data - Shanghai Nonferrous 1 Copper: 80,990 yuan/ton, 785 change, 0.98% change rate - Shanghai Wumaohui: 80,890 yuan/ton, 730 change, 0.91% change rate - Guangdong Nanchu: 80,880 yuan/ton, 770 change, 0.96% change rate - Yangtze Nonferrous: 81,050 yuan/ton, 690 change, 0.86% change rate - Shanghai Nonferrous Premium/Discount: 120 yuan/ton, -80 change, -40% change rate - Shanghai Wumaohui Premium/Discount: 90 yuan/ton, -50 change, -35.71% change rate - Guangdong Nanchu Premium/Discount: 130 yuan/ton, -30 change, -18.75% change rate - Yangtze Nonferrous Premium/Discount: 155 yuan/ton, -70 change, -31.11% change rate [9] Copper Scrap Price Difference - Current Scrap Price Difference (Tax-included): 2,402.98 yuan/ton, 241.7 change, 11.18% change rate - Reasonable Scrap Price Difference (Tax-included): 1,510.2 yuan/ton, 8.8 change, 0.59% change rate - Price Advantage (Tax-included): 892.78 yuan/ton, 232.9 change, 35.29% change rate - Current Scrap Price Difference (Tax-excluded): 7,120 yuan/ton, 280 change, 4.09% change rate - Reasonable Scrap Price Difference (Tax-excluded): 6,322.79 yuan/ton, 61.07 change, 0.98% change rate - Price Advantage (Tax-excluded): 797.21 yuan/ton, 218.93 change, 37.86% change rate [11] Copper Warehouse Receipts and Inventory Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Receipts - Total Shanghai Copper Warehouse Receipts: 25,097 tons, 324 change, 1.31% change rate - Total International Copper Warehouse Receipts: 2,403 tons, -100 change, -4% change rate - Shanghai Copper Warehouse Receipts in Shanghai: 14,905 tons, 101 change, 0.68% change rate - Total Bonded Shanghai Copper Warehouse Receipts: 0 tons, 0 change, -100% change rate - Total Tax-paid Shanghai Copper Warehouse Receipts: 25,097 tons, 324 change, 1.31% change rate [14] LME Copper Inventory - Total LME Copper Inventory: 90,625 tons, -625 change, -0.68% change rate - LME Copper Inventory in Europe: 31,350 tons, -125 change, -0.4% change rate - LME Copper Inventory in Asia: 59,900 tons, 750 change, 1.27% change rate - LME Copper Inventory in North America: 0 tons, 0 change, -100% change rate - Total LME Copper Registered Warehouse Receipts: 57,700 tons, -1,575 change, -2.66% change rate - Total LME Copper Cancelled Warehouse Receipts: 32,925 tons, 950 change, 2.97% change rate [16] COMEX Copper Inventory - Total COMEX Copper Inventory: 212,139 tons, 7,823 change, 3.83% change rate - Total COMEX Copper Registered Warehouse Receipts: 109,313 tons, 10,956 change, 0.06% change rate - Total COMEX Copper Cancelled Warehouse Receipts: 102,826 tons, 867 change, 0.85% change rate [18] Copper Import Profit and Processing - Copper Import Profit and Loss: -1,128.13 yuan/ton, 356.71 change, -24.02% change rate - Copper Concentrate TC: -43.57 dollars/ton, 0 change, 0% change rate [19]

Report Overview - The report is the Nanhua Futures Tin Risk Management Daily Report dated July 3, 2025, prepared by the Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The tin market's fundamentals remain stable. There are both positive and negative factors affecting the tin price. Positive factors include the easing of Sino - US tariff policies, the semiconductor sector's expansion cycle, and lower - than - expected resumption of production in Myanmar. Negative factors are the volatility of tariff policies, the resumption of production in Myanmar, and the potential slowdown of the semiconductor sector's expansion [3][4][5][6] Detailed Summaries Price and Volatility - The latest closing price of tin is 268,520 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 245,000 - 263,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 11.24%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 14.9% [2] Risk Management Suggestions Inventory Management - For high finished - product inventory and concern about price drops, sell 100% of the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at around 290,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the SN2508C275000 call options when the volatility is appropriate [2] Raw Material Management - For low raw - material inventory and concern about price increases, buy 50% of the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at around 230,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the SN2508P245000 put options when the volatility is appropriate [2] Market Data Futures Data (Daily) - Shanghai Tin main, Shanghai Tin continuous one, and Shanghai Tin continuous three all closed at 268,520 yuan/ton, 268,520 yuan/ton, and 268,290 yuan/ton respectively, with no daily change. LME Tin 3M was at 33,625 US dollars/ton, down 125 US dollars (- 0.37%). The Shanghai - London ratio was 7.92, down 0.09 (- 1.12%) [6] Spot Data (Weekly) - Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingots were at 268,500 yuan/ton, up 6,400 yuan (2.44%); 1 tin premium was at 400 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan (- 42.86%); 40% tin concentrate was at 256,500 yuan/ton, up 6,400 yuan (2.56%); 60% tin concentrate was at 260,500 yuan/ton, up 6,400 yuan (2.52%); 60A solder bar was at 174,250 yuan/ton, up 3,500 yuan (2.05%); 63A solder bar was at 181,750 yuan/ton, up 4,000 yuan (2.25%); lead - free solder was at 274,750 yuan/ton, up 6,500 yuan (2.42%) [10][13] Import and Processing Data (Daily) - Tin import profit and loss was - 16,263.89 yuan/ton, up 948.87 yuan (- 5.51%); 40% tin ore processing fee was 12,200 yuan/ton, with no change; 60% tin ore processing fee was 10,550 yuan/ton, with no change [15] Inventory Data (Daily) - Shanghai Futures Exchange tin warehouse receipts totaled 6,888 tons, up 122 tons (1.8%); Guangdong warehouse receipts were 4,270 tons, up 56 tons (1.33%); Shanghai warehouse receipts were 1,693 tons, up 66 tons (4.06%); LME tin inventory totaled 2,175 tons, down 45 tons (- 2.03%) [20]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The fundamentals of the tin market remain stable. There are both positive and negative factors affecting the tin price. Positive factors include the easing of China-US tariff policies, the semiconductor sector still being in an expansion cycle, and the lower-than-expected resumption of production in Myanmar. Negative factors are the volatility of tariff policies, the resumption of production in Myanmar, and the slowdown of the semiconductor sector's expansion and its transition from an expansion to a contraction cycle [3][4][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Price Volatility and Risk Management - The latest closing price of tin is 269,840 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 245,000 - 263,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 15.08%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 28.6% [2] - For inventory management with high finished product inventory and concerns about price drops, it is recommended to sell short the main Shanghai tin futures contract at around 290,000 yuan/ton with a 100% hedging ratio and sell call options (SN2508C275000) with a 25% hedging ratio when the volatility is appropriate. For raw material management with low raw material inventory and concerns about price increases, it is recommended to buy long the main Shanghai tin futures contract at around 230,000 yuan/ton with a 50% hedging ratio and sell put options (SN2508P245000) with a 25% hedging ratio when the volatility is appropriate [2] Market Data Futures Data - The latest prices of Shanghai tin futures (main, continuous 1, and continuous 3) are 269,840 yuan/ton, 269,840 yuan/ton, and 269,520 yuan/ton respectively, with no daily change. The price of LME tin 3M is 33,750 US dollars/ton, with a daily increase of 185 US dollars and a daily increase rate of 0.55%. The Shanghai-London ratio is 7.92, with a daily decrease of 0.09 and a daily decrease rate of -1.12% [6] Spot Data - The latest prices of Shanghai Nonferrous tin ingots, 1 tin premium, 40% tin concentrate, 60% tin concentrate, and various types of solder bars and lead-free solder have different weekly changes. For example, the Shanghai Nonferrous tin ingot price is 266,500 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 2,800 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 1.06% [9] Import and Processing Data - The latest tin import profit and loss is -16,263.89 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 948.87 yuan and a daily decrease rate of -5.51%. The processing fees for 40% and 60% tin ore remain unchanged [14] Inventory Data - The latest warehouse receipt quantities of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange (total, Guangdong, and Shanghai) and the LME tin inventory have different daily changes. For example, the total warehouse receipt quantity of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 6,750 tons, with a daily increase of 199 tons and a daily increase rate of 3.04% [16]

Report Overview - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Copper Risk Management Daily Report - Date: July 2, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [1] 1. Copper Price and Volatility - Latest copper price: 80,640 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 9.54%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 11.2% [2] 2. Copper Risk Management Suggestions Inventory Management - For high - level finished product inventory and fear of price decline (long spot exposure), suggest selling 75% of the Shanghai Copper main futures contract at around 82,000 yuan/ton and selling 25% of the call option CU2508C82000 when volatility is relatively stable [2] Raw Material Management - For low - level raw material inventory and fear of price increase (short spot exposure), suggest buying 75% of the Shanghai Copper main futures contract at around 75,000 yuan/ton [2] 3. News and Factors Important News - The copper fundamentals remain stable [3] Bullish Factors - Sino - US tariff policy easing and a decrease in LME inventory levels [4] Bearish Factors - Tariff policy fluctuations, a decrease in global demand due to tariff policies, the Fed maintaining high interest rates, the US dollar index hovering at a low level, and an increasing expectation of Fed rate cuts [5][6][8] 4. Copper Futures and Spot Data Futures Data - Shanghai Copper main contract: 80,640 yuan/ton, no daily change (0%); Shanghai Copper consecutive first contract: 80,640 yuan/ton, up 770 yuan (0.96%); Shanghai Copper consecutive third contract: 80,100 yuan/ton, no daily change (0%); LME Copper 3M: 9,943 US dollars/ton, up 65 US dollars (0.66%); Shanghai - London ratio: 7.95, up 0.04 (0.51%) [7] Spot Data - Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper: 80,205 yuan/ton, up 215 yuan (0.27%); Shanghai Wumaotrade: 80,160 yuan/ton, up 225 yuan (0.28%); Guangdong Nanchu: 80,110 yuan/ton, up 220 yuan (0.28%); Yangtze Non - ferrous: 80,360 yuan/ton, up 270 yuan (0.34%) [9] 5. Copper Scrap - Refined Spread - Current refined - scrap spread (tax - included): 2,161.28 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan (1.41%); reasonable refined - scrap spread (tax - included): 1,501.4 yuan/ton, up 0.3 yuan (0.02%); price advantage (tax - included): 659.88 yuan/ton, up 29.7 yuan (4.71%) [11] 6. Copper Warehouse Receipts and Inventories Warehouse Receipts - Total Shanghai Copper warehouse receipts: 25,851 tons, up 505 tons (1.99%); total International Copper warehouse receipts: 2,503 tons, no change (0%) [14] Inventories - LME copper inventory: total 91,250 tons, up 625 tons (0.69%); COMEX copper inventory: total 211,209 tons, up 7,874 tons (3.87%) [16][18] 7. Copper Import and Processing - Copper import profit and loss: - 1,484.84 yuan/ton, down 623.83 yuan (- 29.58%); copper concentrate TC: - 43.57 US dollars/ton, no change (0%) [19]

Core Viewpoint - The potential for gold prices to reach $3,500 per ounce by the end of 2025 is supported by various market dynamics, institutional forecasts, and influencing factors [1][17]. Group 1: Factors Supporting Price Increase - Major investment banks, including Goldman Sachs and UBS, have raised their forecasts multiple times, predicting gold prices could reach $3,700 per ounce by the end of 2025, with a possibility of $4,000 by mid-2026 due to geopolitical risks, weakening dollar credit, and ongoing central bank purchases [1]. - The long-term upward cycle for gold remains intact, with significant support from central bank purchases, as global central banks have been net buyers for 16 consecutive years, adding 244 tons in Q1 2025 [2][5]. - Expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut could further weaken the dollar, which has already fallen to its lowest level since March 2022, potentially boosting gold prices [3]. Group 2: Geopolitical and Structural Demand - Ongoing geopolitical risks, such as the fragility of Middle East ceasefire agreements and fluctuating U.S.-China tariff negotiations, may reignite safe-haven demand for gold [4]. - The structural demand for gold is reinforced by the fact that 95% of central banks plan to continue increasing their gold reserves over the next 12 months [5]. Group 3: Risks to Price Increase - Technical analysis indicates that if gold prices fall below $3,165 per ounce, a technical correction of 10-15% could occur, potentially bringing prices down to the $2,500-$2,700 range [6]. - Current gold prices are detached from actual production costs, indicating a risk of valuation correction due to high price levels [7]. - If strong non-farm payroll data or inflation rebounds occur, the Fed may delay interest rate cuts, which could suppress gold prices [8]. Group 4: Institutional Divergence - There is a divergence among institutions regarding gold price forecasts, with Goldman Sachs predicting $3,700, UBS over $3,500, while Citigroup warns of a potential drop to the $2,500-$2,700 range [11]. Group 5: Investor Strategy Recommendations - Investors are advised to maintain rationality amid short-term volatility and avoid chasing price movements, as gold prices are highly sensitive to policy changes [12]. - A recommended allocation for gold in household financial assets is between 5-10%, with a strategy of dollar-cost averaging into gold ETFs to mitigate timing risks [12]. - Key policy anchors to monitor include the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and the political landscape surrounding U.S. elections [13].