Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 7.34 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 8.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.59 billion yuan, up 13.5% year-on-year [1] - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.05 billion yuan, down 12.3% year-on-year, and a net profit of 830 million yuan, down 9.5% year-on-year [1] Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company recorded a revenue of 1.83 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.0%, and a net profit of 580 million yuan, down 4.9% [1] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.5 yuan per share, totaling 1.2 billion yuan, which accounts for 46.35% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [1] - The dividend yield is estimated at 3.1% based on the market capitalization as of April 28, 2025 [1] Product and Market Analysis - In 2024, the revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor was 5.71 billion yuan, an increase of 13.8% year-on-year, while ordinary liquor revenue was 1.29 billion yuan, down 6.5% [2] - For Q1 2025, mid-to-high-end liquor revenue decreased by 8.6%, and ordinary liquor revenue fell by 32.1%, attributed to the early Spring Festival, weak consumption, and proactive destocking [2] - The company's revenue from the domestic market was 5.09 billion yuan, up 12.8% year-on-year, while revenue from outside the province was 1.91 billion yuan, up 1.3% [2] Profitability and Cost Structure - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 73.9%, an increase of 2.6 percentage points year-on-year, benefiting from improved product mix [3] - For Q1 2025, the gross profit margin was 76.5%, up 1.4 percentage points year-on-year, with sales expense ratio and management expense ratio increasing slightly [3] - The net profit margin for 2024 was 35.3%, up 1.2 percentage points year-on-year, and for Q1 2025, it was 40.6%, also up 1.2 percentage points year-on-year [3] Earnings Forecast and Investment Recommendation - Based on the Q1 2025 report, revenue forecasts for 2025-2026 have been lowered, while gross margin and expense ratios have been adjusted upwards [4] - The projected earnings per share for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 3.37 yuan, 3.91 yuan, and 4.46 yuan, respectively [4] - The company is considered to have a reasonable valuation level of 17 times the price-to-earnings ratio for 2025, with a target price of 57.29 yuan, maintaining a buy rating [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 57.29 CNY based on a reasonable valuation level of 17 times the earnings for 2025 [3][11]. Core Views - Short-term growth is under pressure, but the company is expected to achieve healthy long-term growth [2]. - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts downward for 2025-2026 while raising gross margin and expense ratios [3]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 3.37 CNY, 3.91 CNY, and 4.46 CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3][11]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 6,771 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 23.0%. For 2024, the revenue is expected to be 7,344 million CNY, reflecting an 8.5% growth [8]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 was 2,282 million CNY, with a year-on-year increase of 33.9%. The forecast for 2024 is 2,589 million CNY, a growth of 13.4% [8]. - The gross margin for 2024 is projected to be 73.9%, up from 71.0% in 2023, indicating an improvement in profitability [10][8]. Revenue Breakdown - For 2024, the company expects mid-to-high-end liquor revenue to reach 57.1 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 13.8%. However, ordinary liquor revenue is projected to decline by 6.5% to 12.9 billion CNY [10]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 20.5 billion CNY, down 12.3% year-on-year, primarily due to an earlier Spring Festival and weak consumer demand [10]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has a total of 1,379 distributors as of Q1 2025, indicating stable channel management [10]. - The company’s regional performance shows that domestic market revenue is 50.9 billion CNY, growing by 12.8% year-on-year, while revenue from outside the province is 19.1 billion CNY, with a modest growth of 1.3% [10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][10] Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 7.344 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 8.46%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.589 billion yuan, up 13.45% year-on-year [5][7] - In Q1 2025, the company reported a total revenue of 2.047 billion yuan, down 12.35% year-on-year, and a net profit of 0.829 billion yuan, down 9.54% year-on-year [5][7] - The company’s high-end product series continues to show strong momentum in Anhui province, although performance has been slightly pressured due to low-priced liquor and challenges in the out-of-province market [7][8] Summary by Sections Recent Performance - The company's stock performance over the last year shows a decline of 36.9%, compared to a 4.6% increase in the CSI 300 index [3] - As of April 30, 2025, the current stock price is 43.92 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 35.136 billion yuan [3] Financial Highlights - In 2024, the company’s mid-to-high-end liquor revenue was 5.713 billion yuan, up 13.76% year-on-year, while ordinary liquor revenue was 1.290 billion yuan, down 6.53% year-on-year [7] - For Q1 2025, mid-to-high-end liquor revenue was 1.720 billion yuan, down 8.57% year-on-year, and ordinary liquor revenue was 0.242 billion yuan, down 32.09% year-on-year [7] - The company’s gross profit margin increased to 73.94% in 2024, up 2.57 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the higher margin of the high-end product series [7] Future Projections - The company’s revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 7.447 billion yuan, 7.826 billion yuan, and 8.484 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits projected at 2.651 billion yuan, 2.818 billion yuan, and 3.063 billion yuan [8][9] - The expected EPS for 2025-2027 is 3.31 yuan, 3.52 yuan, and 3.83 yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 13, 12, and 11 [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Yingjia Gongjiu, reported a decline in performance in Q1 2025 after several years of double-digit growth, raising concerns about its ability to maintain growth in a challenging market environment [2][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, Yingjia Gongjiu achieved revenue of 7.344 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.46%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.589 billion yuan, up 13.45% [2][3]. - However, in Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 2.047 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.35% year-on-year, and a net profit of 829 million yuan, down 9.54% [5][6]. Group 2: Market Strategy - Yingjia Gongjiu has focused on the mid-to-high-end liquor market, with significant revenue growth in this segment over the past few years. The revenue growth rates for mid-to-high-end liquor from 2021 to 2024 were 44.72%, 27.59%, 27.84%, and 13.76%, respectively [4][6]. - The company has optimized its product structure by categorizing products into mid-to-high-end and ordinary liquor, with the former accounting for an increasing share of total revenue, rising from 71.52% in 2021 to 81.58% in 2024 [4][6]. Group 3: Regional Performance - The revenue from Anhui province has been a significant driver of growth for Yingjia Gongjiu, with provincial revenue growth rates of 36.79%, 25.65%, and 31.51% from 2021 to 2023, leading to an increase in provincial revenue share from 63.5% in 2021 to 70.57% in 2023 [8][9]. - In 2024, the company's revenue from Anhui was 5.093 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.75%, while revenue from outside the province was only 1.909 billion yuan, growing by just 1.31% [9]. Group 4: Inventory and Competition - As of December 31, 2024, Yingjia Gongjiu had a high inventory level, with a book value of 5.043 billion yuan, accounting for 37.67% of total assets and 51.15% of current assets, indicating a need for inventory management [10]. - The company faces intensified competition in the liquor industry, which has led to a slowdown in revenue growth, prompting concerns about its ability to maintain its market position [10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [7][20][5] Core Viewpoints - The company is expected to achieve steady revenue growth in 2024, with a projected revenue of 7.344 billion yuan, representing an 8.5% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 2.589 billion yuan, reflecting a 13.4% year-on-year increase [1][5] - The company is focusing on the growth of its cave series products, which are expected to continue to show double-digit growth throughout the year, despite a general decline in demand for other products [2][4] - The company is actively managing its channel structure to ensure healthy inventory levels and is expected to maintain a strong market presence in the domestic market [4][5] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Forecast - In 2024, the company is projected to achieve a revenue of 73.44 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.5%, and a net profit of 25.89 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 13.4% [1] - For 2025, the revenue is expected to be 74.00 billion yuan, reflecting a slight increase of 0.8%, and the net profit is projected to be 26.24 billion yuan, indicating a growth of 1.3% [5][6] Product Performance - The revenue from mid-to-high-end and ordinary white liquor in 2024 is expected to be 5.713 billion yuan and 1.290 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of +13.8% and -6.6% [2] - The cave series products are anticipated to maintain strong growth, particularly the Dong 9 and Dong 6 variants, which are expected to outperform other product lines [2][4] Market Dynamics - The company’s revenue from domestic and foreign markets in 2024 is projected to be 5.093 billion yuan and 1.909 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 12.8% and 1.3%, respectively [2] - The company is experiencing a decline in revenue from ordinary liquor, with a year-on-year decrease of 28.6% in Q4 2024 [2][3] Financial Metrics - The company’s net profit margin is expected to improve to 35.3% in 2024, an increase of 1.55 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 3.28 yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 1.3% [6][21]

Core Viewpoint - The competitive landscape among the four major listed liquor companies in Anhui has become increasingly polarized, with Gujing Gongjiu solidifying its leading position while other companies face varying degrees of challenges and declines [2] Financial Performance - In 2024, the four listed liquor companies in Anhui achieved a total net profit of 9.504 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.82%, and total operating revenue of 37.862 billion yuan, up 10.05% [2] - Gujing Gongjiu reported a net profit of 5.517 billion yuan, surpassing the combined profits of the second and third-ranked companies, with a net profit growth rate of 46.01%, the highest among the four [2] - Gujing Gongjiu's operating revenue reached 23.578 billion yuan, growing by 16.41%, significantly outpacing the 8.46% revenue growth of Yingjia Gongjiu [2] Product Strategy - Gujing Gongjiu has developed a product matrix covering price ranges from 100 to 500 yuan, effectively meeting both mass consumption and premium market demands [4] - The core product line includes high-revenue contributors like the "Gujing 20," which has annual sales close to 5 billion yuan, supporting overall revenue growth [4] Channel Strategy - Gujing Gongjiu employs a platform merchant recruitment model, enhancing its market control and supporting continuous market share expansion [6] - Yingjia Gongjiu has outperformed Kouzi Jiao in recent years, achieving a net profit of 2.589 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.45%, while Kouzi Jiao's net profit fell by 3.83% to 1.689 billion yuan [6][7] Competitive Dynamics - Kouzi Jiao's revenue growth has stagnated, with a slight increase of only 0.89%, while its gross margin decreased from 75.19% to 74.59% [6][7] - Yingjia Gongjiu's effective product and market strategies have allowed it to narrow the gap in gross margin with Kouzi Jiao [6] Market Positioning - Kouzi Jiao's reliance on traditional distribution models has weakened its market control, leading to pricing chaos and poor product movement [7][9] - Yingjia Gongjiu's innovative "1+1+N" model has facilitated channel penetration and refined management, laying a foundation for growth [11] Challenges Faced by Other Companies - Jinzhongzi Jiu reported a significant revenue decline of 37.04% to 925 million yuan, with net losses expanding to 258 million yuan [11][13] - Jinzhongzi Jiu's product structure imbalance and failed price adjustments have severely impacted its sales performance [13]

引发股价下跌的直接因素是业绩"变脸"。4月28日，迎驾贡酒发布2024年年报及2025年一季报，继2024 年收入增速降低之后，2025年一季度营收下滑12.35%，净利润下滑9.54%。 营收与净利润双降，创五年新低 前几年迎驾贡酒作为一匹"黑马"，业绩保持持续快速增长。2024年则开始大幅放缓，今年一季度营收 20.47亿元，同比下滑12.35%；归母净利润 8.29亿元，同比下滑9.54%。这是自 2020 年疫情以来，迎驾 贡酒首次出现一季度营收和净利润同步下滑，超出市场预期（此前券商预测普遍为个位数增长）。 4月29日，迎驾贡酒股价单日暴跌 8.98%，创下年内新低，如果算上4月28日两个交易日下跌11%。 2024 年迎驾贡酒中高档白酒营收增速已从往年 20% 以上降至 13.76%，2025 年一季度进开始下滑，其 "生态洞藏" 系列等高端产品在消费疲软环境下也受到影响。 前几年迎驾贡酒抓住省内消费升级窗口，通过洞藏新产品的铺货实现了短期快速增长，但是在100 元-300元这个价位带内同样面临激励竞争，安徽是白酒强省，排在迎驾贡酒前面的，还有口子窖与古井 贡酒两家地产酒强敌。在消费疲软比激烈竞争 ...

QYResearch的观点和数据因被众多国内外知名企业、证券公司及媒体频繁引用与转载，而享有高度的 品牌知名度。其权威认证确保了所提供的行业分析及定制报告的可信度与专业度，是业界信赖的优选。 0 1 恒州博智的LED照明报告被深圳民爆光电公司中的年报引用 民爆光电（301362）2024年度管理层讨论与分析 据恒州博智发布的《2023年中国LED照明行业全景图谱》显示，2023年，全球LED防爆照明市场销售额达到 了49亿元，并预测在2028年将达到79亿元，期间的复合年增长率（CAGR）约为7.8%。这一增长可归因于 LED防爆灯在石油和采矿、军事基地、机场以及其他商业和工业领域的广泛应用，这些领域对于安全照明有着 极高的要求。 来源：证券之星 更多：https://stock.stockstar.com/RB2025040100020605.shtml 最新报告推荐：2025年全球及中国极端温度LED照明企业出海开展业务规划及策略研究报告 0 2 深圳思创策划咨询有限公司引用了恒州博智出版的外墙翻新服务市场分析报告 深圳建筑外立面改造项目可行性研究报告——市场分析 根据 QYR（恒州博智）的统计及预测，2 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [7][20]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve steady revenue growth in 2024, with a projected revenue of 7.344 billion yuan, representing an 8.5% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 2.589 billion yuan, reflecting a 13.4% year-on-year increase [1][5]. - The company is focusing on the growth of its cave-aged series, which is anticipated to continue its double-digit growth despite a general slowdown in the mid-to-low-end liquor market [2][4]. - The company is actively managing its channel pressures and ensuring healthy inventory levels, which is expected to enhance its market position in the future [4][5]. Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the company is projected to generate revenue of 73.44 billion yuan, with a net profit margin improvement to 35.3%, up by 1.55 percentage points year-on-year [2][5]. - The revenue for Q4 2024 is expected to decline by 5.0% year-on-year, while Q1 2025 is projected to see a 12.3% decrease in revenue [1][3]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve due to the increasing share of the cave-aged series in its product mix [3][4]. Product and Market Performance - The revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor is expected to reach 5.713 billion yuan in 2024, showing a 13.8% increase, while ordinary liquor revenue is projected to decline by 6.6% [2][5]. - The company’s performance in the domestic market is stronger than in the external market, with domestic revenue expected to grow by 12.8% compared to a mere 1.3% growth in external markets [2][3]. - The cave-aged series is expected to maintain its growth momentum, with specific products like Cave 9 and Cave 6 showing faster growth rates [2][4]. Financial Forecasts - The company’s revenue forecasts for 2025 to 2027 are 7.4 billion yuan, 7.86 billion yuan, and 8.449 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 0.8%, 6.2%, and 7.5% [5][6]. - The net profit forecasts for the same period are 2.624 billion yuan, 2.840 billion yuan, and 3.218 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 1.3%, 7.8%, and 9.8% [5][6]. - The company’s cash dividend rate for 2024 is projected at 46.4%, corresponding to a dividend yield of 3.1% for 2025 [5][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [6][8]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 73.44 billion and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 25.89 billion in 2024, representing year-on-year growth of 8.46% and 13.45% respectively. However, Q4 2024 saw a decline in revenue and net profit by 5.00% and 7.88% respectively, while Q1 2025 experienced a further decline of 12.35% in revenue and 9.25% in net profit [3][4]. - The company’s main liquor segment generated 70.02 billion in revenue, with a year-on-year increase of 9.39%, driven by a volume increase of 0.14% and a price increase of 9.24%. The gross margin improved to 76.81%, up by 2.73 percentage points [4]. - The high-end liquor segment (including cave-aged and gold/silver star products) achieved revenue of 57.13 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 13.76%, with a volume increase of 9.31% and a price increase of 4.07%. The gross margin for this segment rose to 81.07% [4]. - The company’s net profit margin reached a record high of 40.47% in Q1 2025, with gross margins of 76.49% [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 73.44 billion and a net profit of 25.89 billion, with respective growth rates of 8.46% and 13.45%. The Q1 2025 revenue and net profit were 20.47 billion and 8.29 billion, reflecting declines of 12.35% and 9.25% year-on-year [3][7]. - The gross margin for 2024 was 73.94%, with a projected increase to 75.15% in 2025 [11]. Product Segmentation - The high-end liquor segment accounted for 81.58% of the main liquor revenue in 2024, while the ordinary liquor segment saw a revenue decline of 6.53% to 12.90 billion [4][6]. - The company’s revenue from the domestic market reached 50.93 billion, up by 12.75%, while revenue from outside the province was 19.09 billion, a modest increase of 1.31% [4]. Future Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 26 billion, 28 billion, and 30 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with growth rates of 1.7%, 5.9%, and 8.8% [6][10]. - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 13 for 2025, projected to decrease to 12 by 2027 [6][10].