一边是股市飘红，看着特别热闹。 另一边却是老百姓日子过得紧巴巴，消费信心指数转弱。 这两种情况凑到一块儿。 不少人泛起嘀咕，美国金融这摊子事儿到底会如何发展？ 蓝线是1996年以来的席勒本益比，代表美国股市估值，现在飙升速度不容小觑。 绿线则是密歇根大学消费者信心指数，跌到2008年次贷危机时的低点。 一张图的流出，揭开金融的两面性。 其实早有经济专家提出过"永久收入假说"。 通俗易懂的讲，就是大家花钱也好、存钱也罢。 更多看的是以后能挣多少，而不是现在口袋里有多少。 放在以前，比如2008年之前那几十年，美国人收入稳稳定定往上涨，心里有底，该花钱花钱，该买房买 房，日子过得挺有盼头。 可次贷危机一过，收入增长就慢下来了。 到2020年，收入更是雪上加霜，现在涨得比2008到2019年那阵子还慢。 但没想到，股市偏偏不按常理来，跟现实经济完全脱了钩。 过去三十年，普通人扣掉物价上涨后，实际收入也就涨了一半左右，可股市的实际收益却一骑绝尘。 大家慢慢也习惯了"自己没钱，但股市有钱"的日子，可这种情况哪能一直维持？ 就像气球吹得再大也会破，股市和老百姓的真实生活，早晚得回到一条轨道上。 到时候可能"大重置"就会登 ...

2025年9月，美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点至4.00?.25%，这是自2024年12月以来的首次降息。 这 一货币政策转向成为触发国际资本重新配置的关键变量。 港股的估值优势更为突出，恒生指数市盈率10.48倍，恒生科技指数市盈率约24倍，不仅远低于美股同类指数，还处于 自身历史低位区间。 对于追求安全边际的国际资本而言，中国资产既具备估值修复空间，又有经济基本面和政策托底支撑，成为平衡收益 与风险的最优选择之一。 东方财富证券研报指出，低利率环境下，具备景气支撑的成长板块和利率敏感型行业将持续受益于估值扩张。 国家外汇局数据显示，目前境外投资者持有境内债券、股票的市值占比仅3%至4%，仍有巨大提升空间。 全球资本增 配人民币资产的趋势已逐步显现，中国正成为美元流动性外溢的价值洼地。 与全球主要市场相比，中国资产的估值优势成为吸引资金的核心卖点。 截至2025年9月，沪深300指数市盈率仅12.93倍，处于历史46%的分位，而标普500指数市盈率达22.5倍，纳斯达克指数 更是突破40倍。 美元走弱缓解了人民币汇率的贬值压力，结合国内逆周期调节政策的支撑，人民币资产的汇兑风险显著降低。 同 ...

Group 1: Technological Advancements - The rapid development of AI has significantly changed coding practices, allowing for quicker results with minimal input [5] - The construction of the world's highest steady-state strong magnetic field magnet at the Hefei Institute of Physical Science represents a major scientific breakthrough, attracting international collaboration [12] - The launch of the third aircraft carrier, Fujian, and the commissioning of the J-35 fighter jet mark significant advancements in national defense technology [10] Group 2: Infrastructure and Transportation Improvements - The improvement of rural roads has greatly enhanced accessibility for villagers, with many now owning cars, which reflects a significant change in transportation [14] - The transportation of large wind turbine blades through challenging terrains showcases China's commitment to infrastructure development and renewable energy [7] Group 3: Educational Transformation - The education sector has undergone a dramatic transformation, moving from traditional blackboard teaching to media-based instruction [8] Group 4: Cultural Confidence and Economic Growth - There is a growing confidence in Chinese culture, with an increasing number of people engaging in and promoting traditional cultural practices [16] - Economic growth is evident in rural areas, with initiatives like "village super" boosting local economies and encouraging entrepreneurship among residents [18]

美联储在2025年9月宣布将联邦基金利率下调25个基点至4.00%-4.25%，开启了自2024年12月以来的首次降息。 市场普遍预期年内还将有两次降息，全年累计降息75个基点的试探性节奏已基本明确。这一调整正在重塑全球资本流动的轨迹，曾经主导全球金融周期的美 元潮汐，威力正显著衰减。 高息时代的美国凭借4%-5%的稳定收益，成为全球资本的"吸储池"。国际金融机构通过将美元存款利息作为底层资产，设计各类理财产品吸引闲散资金，再 将归集的资本投入高收益领域，形成层层叠加的金融杠杆。 这种模式在维持美国金融韧性的同时，也催生了巨大的市场泡沫。但随着降息周期开启，美元资产的收益吸引力持续下降，机构为规避后续收益缩水风险， 开始提前清算资产离场，全球流动性随之重新分配。 与以往不同的是，当前全球地缘环境复杂，资本更倾向于流向安全边际高的市场。中国凭借稳定的发展环境、低估的资产价格，成为国际资本的重要备选方 向。 更关键的是，中国"一带一路"倡议下的节点城市与产业布局，正引导外资向实物经济沉淀，这种结构性调整使得资本难以被短期美元潮汐轻易抽离，从根本 上削弱了美元周期的冲击力度。 1. 货币政策获得自主空间 美联储高息 ...

中国反倒成了香饽饽。 高盛8月份的报告显示，对冲基金正以7周来最快速度扫货中国股票；摩根士丹利跟踪的数据更直接，6月外资净流入中国股市12亿美 元，7月冲到27亿美元，势头像滚雪球。 为啥是中国？ 三大底牌摆在那儿：一是全球独一份的稳定环境，没战乱没政策翻脸；二是资产价格还趴在地板上，A股估值比欧美低一大截；最硬核的 是"一带一路"的锚定效应，外资投进中老铁路、钱凯港这些项目，直接变成钢筋水泥，想跑都跑不掉！ 过去十年，"一带一路"共建国家对华投资超1400亿 美元，这些钱扎了根，美元潮汐再凶也冲不走。 没想到吧？ 美国联邦政府每年光偿还国债利息就要砸掉1.2万亿美元，比全球一半国家的GDP还高！ 这笔钱平均到每个美国人头上，相当于每人每年掏3500 美元给华尔街"输血"。 2025年9月18日，美联储突然宣布降息25个基点，把利率从4.25?.50%砍到4.00?.25%，这是9个月来头一回降息。 表面看只是利率微调，可全球资本的棋局彻底乱了。 过去几年，美国靠着4?%的高利率，像磁铁一样吸走全球资金。 国际炒家把美元存款包装成高收益理 财，钱生钱玩得风生水起。 但现在，美联储指挥棒一转，美元资产收益缩水， ...

业绩说明会召开情况的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假 记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性 和完整性承担法律责任。 老百姓大药房连锁股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于 2025 年 8 月 26 日 在上海证券交易所网站（http://www.sse.com.cn）及指定信息披露媒体披露了 《老百姓大药房连锁股份有限公司 2025 年半年度报告》。为使广大投资者更加全 面、深入地了解公司情况，公司于 2025 年 9 月 29 日召开了 2025 年半年度业绩 说明会，现将会议召开情况公告如下： 证券代码：603883 证券简称：老百姓 公告编号：2025-051 老百姓大药房连锁股份有限公司关于 2025 年半年度 问题 1：公司在药店多元化领域准备怎么做？ 答：尊敬的投资者您好，感谢您对公司的关注。公司持续深耕"健康生态"， 聚焦产品多元化和服务多元化，打造增长新引擎。第一，产品多元化方面，公司 重视大健康非药品类布局，利用全渠道大数据精选 SKU，拓展商品矩阵，"老百 姓优选"聚焦"安全、健康、具有性价比的健康生活好物"，提供健康食品、功 能零食及日用品等多元 ...

Core Viewpoint - The offline pharmacy industry is undergoing a significant transformation, shifting from rapid expansion to a focus on optimization and quality improvement, with many companies facing declining performance and store closures as a result of changing market dynamics and regulatory pressures [1][7]. Industry Performance - In the first half of 2025, several listed offline pharmacy companies reported weak performance, with major players like Yifeng Pharmacy, Lao Baixing, and Yixin Tang experiencing revenue declines [2]. - The retail pharmacy sector is seeing a slowdown in revenue growth, with some companies reporting negative growth for the first half of 2025, marking the end of a 20-year period of high growth [2][4]. Store Closures and Strategic Adjustments - Major pharmacy chains are closing stores to optimize their operations, with Yifeng Pharmacy closing 1,078 stores and Daclin closing 733 stores in 2024 [5]. - Guoda Pharmacy, once a member of the "10,000 store club," has closed over 1,270 stores as part of its strategic shift towards high-quality development, reducing its total store count from 10,702 to 9,569 by the end of 2024 [2][6]. Market Trends and Future Outlook - The overall retail pharmacy market is experiencing a contraction, with a significant decrease in the number of stores, dropping below 700,000 nationwide by the first quarter of 2025 [6]. - The industry is expected to undergo consolidation, with a shift from quantity expansion to quality improvement, driven by regulatory changes and market pressures [7][8]. - The rise of online pharmacy services is impacting traditional brick-and-mortar stores, but the latter are adapting by enhancing their service offerings and focusing on prescription drugs and health products [8].

9月29日，老百姓举办2025年半年度业绩说明会。会上有投资者询问药店行业的趋势。管理层表示，目 前行业出清整合态势比较确定，自2024年第四季度以来全国药店数量持续净减少，根据中康资讯数据， 2024 年第四季度全国药店净减少3,395家，2025年第一季度全国药店净减少3,166 家，2025年第二季度净 减少4,009家。预计未来两年，行业出清和市场集中度提升将继续加速。 行业从快速扩张转向规范化发展，对现存药店的要求更高，行业出清整合也是大型连锁提升市占率的良 好契机。老百姓通过合规体系、自查机制持续守好合规经营的"护城河"，强化专业药事服务能力、提升 门店经营质量；同时重点发展"加盟"、"联盟"业务整合行业资源，吸纳中小药店，布局存量市场，以期 在行业整合期抢占先机，进一步提高市占率。 还有投资者询问公司的商采体系改革进展。管理层表示，2025年上半年，公司推动商采体系深度变革， 构建"以用户需求为中心"的高性价比商品驱动模式，强化消费者黏性，商品力与供应链效率持续提升。 具体来看，第一，整合商采职能，实现一体化管理，显著提升供应链响应效率与成本控制能力。第二， 重构品类管理逻辑，以用户需求为核心， ...

Core Points - On September 29, a total of 25 listed companies had their restricted shares unlocked, with a total market value of approximately 24.818 billion yuan [1] Summary by Category Restricted Share Unlocking - The companies involved in the unlocking of restricted shares include: - Luzhou Laojiao (000568) with 102,700 shares from equity incentive restrictions - East China Pharmaceutical (000963) with 215,000 shares from equity incentive restrictions - Taiyuan Heavy Industry (600169) with 11.6502 million shares from equity incentive restrictions - Jinfat Technology (600143) with 7.406 million shares from equity incentive restrictions - Guotai Junan (601211) with 3.2495 million shares from equity incentive restrictions - Guanglian Da (002410) with 3.2334 million shares from equity incentive restrictions - Ningbo Port (601018) with 3.647 billion shares from A-share issuance to legal person allocation - Zhongjin Environment (300145) with 852,070 shares from equity incentive restrictions - Keli Ke (002782) with 768,000 shares from equity incentive restrictions - Yingjie Electric (300820) with 62,500 shares from equity incentive restrictions - Laobaixing (603883) with 868,400 shares from equity incentive restrictions - Zhaoxun Media (301102) with 218 million shares from extended lock-up period - Zhongjing Technology (003026) with 20,000 shares from equity incentive restrictions - Woge Optoelectronics (603773) with 14.8003 million shares from A-share issuance to original shareholders allocation - Hanrui Cobalt (300618) with 104,670 shares from equity incentive restrictions - Fujilai (301258) with 55.362 million shares from extended lock-up period - Wankai New Materials (301216) with 225 million shares from extended lock-up period - Weiteou (301319) with 29.8 million shares from pre-issue share restrictions - Guanshi Technology (605588) with 19,870 shares from equity incentive restrictions - Sanwang Communication (688618) with 13,500 shares - Xidi Micro (688173) with 771,800 shares - Rendu Biology (688193) with 8.4316 million shares - Jinchang Protein (688137) with 7.145 million shares - Jiao Cheng Ultrasound (688392) with 43.8612 million shares - Aike Saibo (688719) with 824,800 shares [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the critical state of China's real estate market and the implications for the macro economy, emphasizing the need for a shift in policy and perception regarding housing prices and land finance [2][4]. Group 1: Land Finance and Policy - Land finance is defined as the fiscal mechanism of local governments that possess land transfer and planning rights [4]. - To stabilize the real estate market, it is essential to abandon quantity targets and halt the influx of new land supply, focusing instead on redeeming excess properties [4]. - The current approach of relying on land sales for financing contradicts the central government's strategy of transitioning from incremental expansion to qualitative improvement [4]. Group 2: Impact of Housing Prices - The decline in housing prices primarily affects ordinary citizens rather than the wealthy, as housing constitutes a significant portion of household assets in China [4]. - The homeownership rates are notably high, with urban residents at 96.3% and rural residents at 94.8%, indicating that housing is a critical asset for the majority [4]. - The article argues that rising housing prices can help reduce wealth inequality, contrary to the belief that falling prices benefit the majority [4]. Group 3: Market Structure and Transformation - A dual-track system is proposed, distinguishing between market-driven housing and affordable housing, to ensure both price stability and housing accessibility [5]. - The article suggests that the best source of affordable housing is not new construction but rather the repurchase of excess market housing [5]. - The handling of unfinished projects should focus on rescuing banks rather than merely saving companies [5]. Group 4: Current Market Conditions - The real estate sector is currently in a downturn, with significant declines in new housing sales and investment [7][9]. - From January to August 2023, new housing sales dropped by 4.7% in area and 7.3% in value, while real estate development investment fell by 12.9% [7][9]. - The inventory of unsold properties has increased, with a notable rise in the waiting period for inventory clearance [10][13]. Group 5: Economic Contribution and Future Outlook - The real estate sector contributes approximately 20% to GDP and 40% to fiscal revenue, highlighting its importance to the economy [19][22]. - Despite its significance, the probability of housing prices continuing to rise is deemed low due to oversupply and demographic challenges [23][24]. - The article emphasizes that the real estate market must return to a supply-demand balance, as excessive price increases lead to unsustainable debt levels for developers [28][31].