Summary of CMOC Group (3993.HK) Earnings Review Company Overview - **Company**: CMOC Group (3993.HK) - **Industry**: Basic Materials, specifically mining and production of copper and cobalt - **Market Cap**: HK$230.8 billion / $29.5 billion - **Enterprise Value**: HK$252.7 billion / $32.3 billion - **12m Price Target**: HK$10.80 / Rmb13.00 Key Financial Highlights - **1H25 Net Profit**: Rmb8.67 billion, up 60% YoY - **EPS**: Rmb0.405 per share, up 62% YoY - **Recurring Net Profit**: Rmb8.62 billion, up 52% YoY - **Results**: 8% below estimates due to higher COGS in DRC operations, but above Bloomberg consensus [1][2][30] Revenue and Profitability - **Revenue**: Rmb94.77 billion, down 8% YoY - **Gross Profit**: Rmb18.19 billion, up 8% YoY - **Gross Profit from Mining**: Rmb16.9 billion, up 18% YoY, but 16% below estimates due to lower copper and cobalt profits in DRC [22][30] - **Trading Gross Profit**: Rmb1.8 billion, up 8% YoY, 23% above expectations [23] Operational Performance - **Copper Output**: 354kt in 1H25, up 13% YoY, 4% above estimates - **Cobalt Output**: 61kt in 1H25, up 13% YoY, 6% above estimates - **Unit COGS for Copper**: Increased by 44% YoY to Rmb6,112 per ton, 33% above estimates - **Unit COGS for Cobalt**: Increased by 30% YoY to Rmb8,375 per ton, 20% above estimates [25][31] Future Outlook - **Volume Guidance for 2025**: Copper 600-660kt, Cobalt 100-120kt - **Long-term Target**: 800-1,000kt annual copper output and 90-100kt annual cobalt output by 2028E [27] Valuation and Investment Thesis - **Revised Earnings Estimates**: Increased by 5-9% for 2025-27E due to higher minor metal prices [2] - **Expected Recurring Profit Growth**: 38% in 2025E driven by rising copper prices [36] - **Valuation Methodology**: Based on historical P/B vs. ROE correlation, with a higher discount rate due to ESG risks [37] Risks - **Commodity Price Risks**: Weaker-than-expected prices for copper, cobalt, niobium, and phosphorus - **Operational Risks**: Sudden decline in ore grade and transportation issues - **Project Execution Risks**: Slower-than-expected project execution impacting growth - **Currency/Country Risks**: Associated with overseas assets - **Hedging Operations**: Risks in trading business [29] Conclusion - **Recommendation**: Maintain Buy rating on CMOC H/A shares, with a target price reflecting potential upside based on market conditions and operational performance [36]

Market Performance - On August 25, the rare earth magnetic materials sector saw significant gains, with companies like Jinli Permanent Magnet and Dadi Bear rising over 10%, and Northern Rare Earth increasing by over 8% [1] - The non-ferrous metals sector also performed well, with companies such as Zhangyuan Tungsten and Northern Copper hitting the daily limit, and Luoyang Molybdenum rising over 7%, reaching a historical high [1] Stock Highlights - Zhangyuan Tungsten (002378.SZ) reached a price of 13.38 with a gain of 10.03% and a market cap of 159.90 billion [3] - Northern Copper (000737.SZ) increased to 12.50, up 10.04%, with a market cap of 238.07 billion [3] - Hunan Silver (002716.SZ) also saw a rise of 10.00%, reaching a price of 5.39 and a market cap of 119.14 billion [3] Regulatory Developments - On August 22, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission, and the Ministry of Natural Resources jointly announced the "Interim Measures for Total Control Management of Rare Earth Mining and Smelting Separation," effective immediately [5] - The measures require rare earth production companies to establish a tracking system for rare earth product flows and report this information monthly [5] Industry Insights - The recent implementation of the interim measures marks the beginning of significant supply-side reforms in the rare earth industry, with a notable increase in magnetic material exports in July, up 75% month-on-month and 6% year-on-year, indicating potential for further recovery [6] - The demand for magnetic materials in the electric vehicle sector is expected to grow by nearly 20% this year, with wind power and industrial robotics also showing strong growth prospects [6] - Short-term supply and demand dynamics are shifting, with expectations of improved demand as the peak season approaches, providing support for prices [6]

Group 1 - The A-share market continues to rise, with the "anti-involution" concept leading the gains, particularly in the non-ferrous metals sector, which has seen significant trading volume and net subscriptions for the Non-Ferrous 50 ETF (159652) reaching 15 million shares [1][3] - Over the past five trading days, the Non-Ferrous 50 ETF has experienced net inflows for four days, totaling 137 million yuan, indicating strong investor interest [3] - The non-ferrous metals sector is benefiting from a weaker US dollar and ongoing demand for safe-haven assets, with the sector's financial attributes being highlighted as a key driver for investment [3][4] Group 2 - The recent dovish comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell have increased the likelihood of interest rate cuts, leading to a drop in the US dollar index and a strong performance in non-ferrous metal prices [4] - The non-ferrous metals sector is emerging from a seasonal downturn, with inventory levels approaching a turning point, suggesting a favorable environment for investment due to both commodity and financial attributes [4] - The Non-Ferrous 50 ETF is noted for its high copper content at 31%, making it a leading choice among similar investment products [5] Group 3 - Key companies within the Non-Ferrous 50 ETF include Zijin Mining (15.8% weight), Northern Rare Earth (5.0% weight), and China Aluminum (4.4% weight), among others, indicating a diversified exposure to various non-ferrous metals [6][7] - The overall valuation of the non-ferrous sector is considered attractive, supported by multiple favorable factors such as supply-side contraction policies and new demand drivers from economic cycles [4]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 3.49% and the CSI 300 Index increased by 4.18% during the week of August 18-22 [2][3] - The SW Nonferrous Metals Index saw a gain of 1.33%, while COMEX gold and silver prices increased by 1.05% and 2.26%, respectively [2][3] Industrial Metals - Industrial metal prices showed mixed movements: LME aluminum +0.73%, copper +0.50%, zinc +0.32%, lead +0.56%, nickel -1.45%, and tin +0.70% [2][3] - The SMM imported copper concentrate index reported a decrease of $3.47/ton to $-41.15/ton, while the copper rod enterprises' operating rate rose to 71.80%, up by 1.20 percentage points [3] - Domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased by 11,000 tons, totaling 596,000 tons, indicating a slight increase in production and improved demand expectations [3] - Recommended companies in the industrial metals sector include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Minmetals Resources, China Nonferrous Mining, and others [3] Energy Metals - Cobalt raw material imports continue to decline, suggesting a potential price surge for cobalt, while lithium supply disruptions remain a concern [4] - Carbonate lithium prices have rebounded due to increased market activity, with expectations for a strong short-term performance [4] - Cobalt prices are expected to strengthen as domestic inventory continues to deplete, with stable price increases for cobalt sulfate [4] - Recommended companies in the energy metals sector include Cangge Mining, Huayou Cobalt, and others [4] Precious Metals - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has positively influenced gold prices, with the People's Bank of China continuing to increase gold reserves for nine consecutive months [5] - Silver prices are also rising due to its industrial properties and recovery dynamics [5] - Recommended companies in the precious metals sector include Shandong Gold, Tongguan Gold, and others, with a focus on potential opportunities if gold prices stabilize above $3,500/oz [5]

Core Viewpoint - Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. (洛阳钼业) is experiencing a positive market response, with a stock price increase of 5.84% to 11.42 CNY per share, indicating strong investor interest and confidence in the company's performance [1]. Group 1: Company Overview - Luoyang Molybdenum is a leading producer of non-ferrous metals, including copper, cobalt, molybdenum, tungsten, and phosphate fertilizers, and is engaged in mining, processing, and trading [1]. - The company ranks 145th in the 2024 Fortune China 500 list, reflecting its significant position in the industry [1]. - The company's vision is to become a world-class resource company through globalization and modern governance [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - As of the mid-2025 financial report, Luoyang Molybdenum achieved a total revenue of 94.773 billion CNY and a net profit of 8.671 billion CNY [2].

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing a strong rally, with notable gains in various companies following comments from the Federal Reserve Chairman regarding potential interest rate cuts [1] Company Performance - Northern Copper Industry has reached its daily limit increase - Jiangxi Copper, Silver Nonferrous, Electrical Alloy, and Yunnan Copper have all surged over 5% - Other companies such as Luoping Zinc & Electricity, Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Yun Aluminum have also seen significant gains [1]

洛阳钼业（603993）(03993)绩后涨超6%，截至发稿，涨6.02%，报11.44港元，成交额4998.69万港元。 消息面上，8月22日，洛阳钼业发布截至2025年6月30日止六个月的中期业绩，营业收入947.73亿元(人 民币，下同)，同比减少7.83%；归母净利润86.71亿元，同比增加60.07%；基本每股收益0.41元。 公告称，公司各产品产量全部达成上半年度目标，实现时间过半任务超半。其中，产铜35.36万吨，同 比增长约12.68%；产钴6.11万吨，同比增长约13.05%。钼、钨、铌、磷肥等产品产量均超过年度目标的 50%。 ...

公告称，公司各产品产量全部达成上半年度目标，实现时间过半任务超半。其中，产铜35.36万吨，同 比增长约12.68%；产钴6.11万吨，同比增长约13.05%。钼、钨、铌、磷肥等产品产量均超过年度目标的 50%。 智通财经APP获悉，洛阳钼业(03993)绩后涨超6%，截至发稿，涨6.02%，报11.44港元，成交额4998.69 万港元。 消息面上，8月22日，洛阳钼业发布截至2025年6月30日止六个月的中期业绩，营业收入947.73亿元(人 民币，下同)，同比减少7.83%；归母净利润86.71亿元，同比增加60.07%；基本每股收益0.41元。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the trading performance and financial metrics of Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. on August 22, including a slight increase in stock price and significant trading volume [1] - On August 22, Luoyang Molybdenum had a financing buy amount of 200 million yuan, with a net financing purchase of 2.82 million yuan, indicating active trading interest [1] - The total financing and securities lending balance for Luoyang Molybdenum reached 1.86 billion yuan, with the financing balance being low compared to the past year [1] Group 2 - Luoyang Molybdenum, established on December 22, 1999, primarily engages in the mining and processing of rare metals such as molybdenum, tungsten, and gold, with a diverse revenue structure [2] - As of June 30, 2025, Luoyang Molybdenum reported a revenue of 94.77 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.83%, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 60.07% to 8.67 billion yuan [2] - The company has distributed a total of 21.56 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 10.58 billion yuan distributed in the last three years [3] Group 3 - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Luoyang Molybdenum decreased by 15.95% to 237,500, indicating a consolidation of ownership [2] - Major institutional shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited and various ETFs, with notable increases in their holdings [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue for the first half of 2025, but significant growth in net profit, indicating improved operational efficiency and cost management strategies [1][2]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 94.773 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.83%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 8.671 billion yuan, an increase of 60.07% [1]. - For Q2 2025, revenue was 48.767 billion yuan, down 13.99% year-on-year but up 6.00% quarter-on-quarter; net profit was 4.725 billion yuan, up 41.24% year-on-year and 19.75% quarter-on-quarter [1]. Production and Operational Efficiency - All product output targets were met in H1 2025, with copper, cobalt, molybdenum, tungsten, and niobium production increasing by 12.68%, 13.05%, -4.90%, -1.79%, and +2.93% respectively [2]. - The company achieved a cash flow from operations of 12.009 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.40%, and a debt-to-asset ratio of 50.15%, down 9.01 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Cost Reduction and Profitability - The company implemented refined management and technological innovations, leading to significant cost reductions and improved profitability in mining operations [3]. - In H1 2025, mining revenue reached 39.402 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.64%, with a gross margin of 52.42%, up 5.56 percentage points [3]. Expansion and Future Growth - The company is progressing with the expansion of TFM and KFM, aiming for a copper production target of 800,000 to 1,000,000 tons in the Democratic Republic of Congo [4]. - The construction of the Heshima hydropower station, with a capacity of 200MW, is on track to support long-term development in the region [4]. - The acquisition of the Cangrejos gold mine in Ecuador is underway, with plans for production to start by 2029, targeting an annual output of 11.5 tons of gold [4]. Profit Forecast - The company forecasts net profits of 16.257 billion yuan, 17.595 billion yuan, and 18.727 billion yuan for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth of 20.14%, 8.23%, and 6.43% respectively [5].