Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant impact of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) on the global cobalt supply chain, particularly in light of recent export restrictions and quota management policies aimed at stabilizing cobalt prices amid a supply surplus and declining demand growth [2][9][18]. Group 1: Cobalt Market Dynamics - The DRC is the largest cobalt supplier globally, accounting for 75.86% of the world's production, and its policy changes are reshaping the global energy landscape [2][12]. - In February 2023, the DRC government imposed a four-month cobalt export ban due to plummeting prices, marking a significant intervention in the cobalt market [2][9]. - The DRC's Strategic Mineral Regulatory Bureau announced an end to the export ban on October 16, 2023, implementing an annual export quota system to manage supply [3][4]. Group 2: Export Quota Details - For the remainder of 2025, the DRC's export limit is set at 18,125 tons, with monthly allocations of 3,625 tons in October, 7,250 tons in November, and 7,250 tons in December [3][4]. - The annual quota for 2026-2027 is fixed at 96,600 tons, with 87,000 tons designated as "basic quota" and 9,600 tons as "strategic quota" for key national projects [3][4]. Group 3: Impact on Cobalt Prices - Following the DRC's export restrictions, cobalt prices surged, with increases of 185% for cobalt intermediates, 107% for MB cobalt, and 123% for metallic cobalt from February 24 to October 9, 2023 [8][9]. - The DRC's policies aim to reduce global inventory levels to a month's demand, as prolonged supply surpluses have led to a 60% price drop from 2022 highs, severely impacting the DRC's revenue [8][12]. Group 4: Supply and Demand Trends - Global cobalt production is projected to increase by 21.8% in 2024, reaching 290,000 tons, with the DRC's output expected to grow by 25.7% to 220,000 tons [12][14]. - However, demand growth is slowing, with a projected 14% increase in global cobalt consumption in 2024, primarily driven by electric vehicles and consumer electronics [14][15]. Group 5: Strategic Implications - The DRC's control over cobalt supply is a response to international market fluctuations and domestic economic pressures, emphasizing the need for resource-rich countries to assert pricing power [8][18]. - The ongoing competition for cobalt resources reflects broader geopolitical tensions and the strategic importance of securing supply chains for green energy technologies [18][37]. Group 6: Future Outlook - The DRC's new quota policy is expected to tighten the cobalt supply balance, potentially leading to a structural adjustment in the global cobalt supply chain [36][38]. - The increasing reliance on cobalt recycling and alternative sources, such as Indonesian nickel-cobalt projects, is seen as a critical strategy for mitigating supply risks [54][41].

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [6] Core Views - Precious metals are experiencing strong demand due to geopolitical risks and expectations of interest rate cuts, leading to significant price increases for gold and silver [2][27][30] - Base metals, particularly copper, are facing price volatility with limited fundamental support, as domestic consumption remains weak and supply disruptions are easing [1][13][14] - The tungsten industry is seeing price fluctuations with a divergence in the supply chain, while the molybdenum market is experiencing price increases due to higher output from mines [3][71] Summary by Sections Base Metals & Precious Metals - Copper prices have retreated from highs, with domestic inventories increasing due to limited downstream demand and ongoing maintenance at smelters [1][13] - Aluminum prices have risen slightly, supported by stable supply and improved demand, with a decrease in social inventories [1][21][22][23] - Gold and silver prices have surged, driven by heightened geopolitical tensions and expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve [2][27][29] Minor Metals - The tungsten market is experiencing mixed price movements, with some products increasing while others remain stable or decline due to weak downstream demand [3][66][67] - Molybdenum prices are on the rise, supported by increased output from mines and stable demand from steel manufacturers [71][73] Rare Earths - Recent export control policies are expected to strengthen China's position in the rare earth industry, with price fluctuations observed in various rare earth products [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the copper industry [6]. Core Viewpoints - The report expresses optimism for copper prices to rise in the future due to tightening supply and improving demand [4]. - Trade conflicts are currently suppressing copper prices, but a rebound is expected as downstream demand recovers [1][4]. Summary by Sections Inventory - Domestic copper social inventory increased by 6.7% week-on-week, while LME copper inventory decreased by 1.5% [2]. - As of October 17, 2025, domestic port copper concentrate inventory stood at 681,000 tons, up 3.1% from the previous week [2]. - Global electrolytic copper inventory across the three major exchanges reached 589,000 tons, a 4.9% increase from September 30 [2]. Supply - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper decreased by 840 yuan/ton this week [2]. - In July 2025, China's copper concentrate production was 138,000 tons, down 6.3% month-on-month and 1.6% year-on-year [2]. - Global copper concentrate production in July 2025 was 2.012 million tons, up 7.2% year-on-year and 4.7% month-on-month [2]. Smelting - The current TC (treatment charge) is -40.8 USD/ton, unchanged from the previous week [3]. - In September 2025, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.121 million tons, down 4.3% month-on-month but up 11.6% year-on-year [3]. - In August, electrolytic copper imports increased by 6% year-on-year, while exports rose by 19% [3]. Demand - The cable industry's operating rate increased by 3.4 percentage points week-on-week [3]. - The cable sector accounts for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand, with the operating rate for cable enterprises at 61.91% as of October 16, 2025 [3]. - Air conditioning accounts for about 13% of domestic copper demand, with production expected to improve in the fourth quarter [3]. Futures - As of October 17, 2025, the active contract position for SHFE copper increased by 6.8% week-on-week, reaching 216,000 lots [4]. - The report notes that the current position is at the 64th percentile since 1995 [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends stocks such as Zijin Mining, Western Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Jincheng Mining, while keeping an eye on Tongling Nonferrous Metals [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The report anticipates a potential upward trend in copper prices due to expected shortages in copper mines, particularly with the global second-largest copper mine, Grasberg, facing production halts. The report suggests that the copper supply-demand balance may shift from tight equilibrium to shortage by 2026 [4] - The report highlights the performance of various metals, including aluminum, lithium, and cobalt, with specific recommendations for companies to watch in each segment [4] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - Recent macroeconomic developments include a new round of US-China trade negotiations and comments from Trump regarding the unsustainability of high tariffs on China [8] 2. Market Performance - The overall performance of the non-ferrous metals sector saw a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.47% and the Shenwan Non-Ferrous Metals Index down 3.07%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite by 1.60 percentage points [10][11] 3. Valuation Changes - The PE_TTM for the Shenwan Non-Ferrous Metals Index is 26.96, down 1.78 from the previous week, while the PB_LF is 3.22, down 0.22 [19][22] 4. Copper - Copper prices have seen a decline, with LME copper down 1.86% and SHFE copper down 1.77%. However, the report indicates a potential for price recovery due to supply disruptions and seasonal demand [21][44] 5. Aluminum - Aluminum prices are experiencing fluctuations, with LME aluminum down 0.45% and SHFE aluminum down 0.47%. The report notes a decrease in inventory levels, which may support price stability [33][44] 6. Lithium - Lithium prices are showing mixed trends, with lithium carbonate down 0.27% and lithium spodumene up 0.83%. The report suggests that lithium prices may stabilize due to seasonal demand [73] 7. Cobalt - Cobalt prices have increased, with MB cobalt up 5.40% to $20.98 per pound, driven by changes in export regulations from the Democratic Republic of Congo [86]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including Shanjin International, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, and Luoyang Molybdenum [5][6]. Core Views - The report highlights that the precious metals market is experiencing price fluctuations due to tariff disturbances, but the long-term bullish trend remains intact. The U.S. government shutdown and increased tariffs on China are expected to boost gold's safe-haven demand [1]. - For industrial metals, copper prices are supported by supply disruptions, while macroeconomic uncertainties may cause short-term volatility. The aluminum market is expected to see high price fluctuations due to rising interest rate expectations and inventory reductions [2]. - In the energy metals sector, lithium prices are projected to remain strong due to increased supply and demand, particularly in the electric vehicle market. However, the silicon market is facing oversupply issues, leading to price fluctuations [3]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Tariff disturbances have led to price volatility in gold and silver, but the long-term bullish trend is expected to continue. The report suggests strategic allocation in precious metals [1]. - Recommended companies include: Xinyi Silver, Shengda Resources, and Zijin Mining [1]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Prices are supported by supply disruptions from major mines, with a projected increase in price center due to mid-term supply constraints. However, short-term fluctuations may occur due to trade tensions [2]. - **Aluminum**: The market is experiencing high price volatility, influenced by interest rate expectations and inventory levels. The report suggests monitoring inventory accumulation [2]. Energy Metals - **Lithium**: The market is showing strong performance with supply and demand both increasing. The report indicates that lithium prices are likely to remain strong in the short term [3]. - **Silicon**: The market is facing oversupply, leading to price fluctuations despite being in a traditional demand season [3]. Key Companies - The report identifies key companies to watch, including: Luoyang Molybdenum, China Hongqiao, and Tianqi Lithium [5][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the industry, highlighting several key companies as investment opportunities [4]. Core Views - The report emphasizes that tariff uncertainties continue to disrupt the market, leading to increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold and silver, which have reached new highs [1][2]. - Industrial metal prices are expected to remain strong due to supply disruptions and optimistic macroeconomic forecasts, despite short-term volatility caused by tariffs [2][3]. - Energy metals, particularly lithium and cobalt, are projected to perform well due to strong demand from the electric vehicle and energy storage sectors [3]. - Precious metals are benefiting from strong central bank purchases and high expectations for interest rate cuts, which are expected to support gold prices in the medium to long term [3]. Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - Tariff-induced short-term volatility is affecting copper prices, but supply disruptions are expected to support prices [2]. - Aluminum demand remains resilient, with a decrease in social inventory indicating a potential price stabilization [2][19]. - The report highlights key companies in the industrial metals sector, including Luoyang Molybdenum, Zijin Mining, and China Aluminum [2]. Energy Metals - Cobalt prices are rising due to new export quota regulations from the Democratic Republic of Congo, while lithium demand remains strong due to the growth of the electric vehicle market [3]. - Key companies recommended in this sector include Huayou Cobalt and Tianqi Lithium [3]. Precious Metals - Gold prices are expected to continue rising due to strong demand from central banks and geopolitical uncertainties [3]. - Recommended companies in the precious metals sector include Western Gold, Shandong Gold, and Zijin Gold [3].

Core Insights - The performance of the gold and non-ferrous metal sectors in 2025 is significantly influenced by the dual factors of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and external uncertainties, with gold futures prices surpassing $4200 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of over 50% [2][4] - The non-ferrous metal sector shows a mixed performance, with industrial metals facing price volatility due to tariff policies and global economic expectations, while energy metals are showing signs of recovery with reduced price declines and improved profit quality [2][5] Industry Performance - The non-ferrous metal industry has maintained high production levels and fixed asset investment growth, leading to increased profitability across most metal prices [5][11] - In the first half of 2025, the A-share precious metal sector achieved revenue of 188.25 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.15%, and a net profit of 9.68 billion yuan, up 64.72%, indicating a clear volume-price resonance [6][12] - The industrial metal sector reported revenue of 1.36 trillion yuan, a 3.46% increase, with net profit growth reaching 24.42%, while energy metals saw a remarkable turnaround with a net profit increase of 1389.34% [6][12] Market Dynamics - The recent surge in the non-ferrous metal sector is attributed to macroeconomic monetary easing policies and supply-demand imbalances, with significant capital inflows into leading companies like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum [5][11] - The price of copper, a key indicator of global economic health, has risen by 13% this year, nearing historical highs, despite cautious capital expenditure from major copper companies [7][11] - The geopolitical risks and policy uncertainties, including the U.S. government shutdown and ongoing conflicts, have driven investors towards gold as a safe haven, further boosting demand [4][5] Company Performance - Leading companies in the sector, such as Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum, have seen significant stock price increases, with Zijin Mining's A-share price rising by 99.47% year-to-date [11] - The performance of copper-related companies remains resilient, with Jin Chengxin achieving a 198.52% year-on-year increase in copper metal production, supporting its revenue growth [17] - Conversely, the lithium market has faced severe challenges, with companies like Shengxin Lithium Energy reporting significant losses due to plummeting lithium prices [17]

Core Insights - The tungsten concentrate industry is crucial for strategic sectors like aerospace and defense, with a focus on high-density, high-melting-point, and high-hardness properties [1][5][11] - China, as the largest tungsten producer, faces rapid resource consumption and has implemented policies for total control and export regulation to transition from resource output to high value-added production [1][5][6] - The industry is characterized by a concentration of resources, with significant production capacity in provinces like Jiangxi and Henan, and a market dominated by state-owned enterprises [1][12][16] Industry Overview - Tungsten concentrate is extracted from tungsten ore through various processes, requiring a minimum tungsten trioxide (WO₃) content of 65% [2][3] - The global tungsten resource distribution is highly concentrated, with China holding 52% of the total reserves, while the domestic reserve-to-production ratio is only 36 years [10][11] Policy Analysis - China has established a policy framework focusing on resource protection and sustainable utilization, including total mining volume management and export controls [5][6][14] - Recent policies have refined the management of mining quotas and introduced stricter regulations on exports of tungsten-related products [6][14] Industry Chain - The tungsten concentrate industry chain includes exploration, mining, and processing, with a high concentration of mining enterprises and increasing prices due to supply constraints [8][12] - The downstream applications are diverse, with significant growth in demand for tungsten wire in the photovoltaic sector, while traditional sectors face cost pressures [8][12] Current Industry Status - The tungsten industry in China is experiencing a transformation, with a focus on high-end applications and a shift towards sustainable practices [13][15] - In 2024, the total tungsten concentrate production is projected to be 12.7 million tons, reflecting the impact of total control policies [14][15] Competitive Landscape - The industry is characterized by a "resource core, state-owned leadership, and collaborative ecosystem" model, with major players like Jiangxi Tungsten Industry Group and Xiamen Tungsten leading the market [16][17] - The market concentration is high, with the top five companies controlling 61% of the production capacity [16] Future Trends - The tungsten concentrate industry is expected to evolve towards resource consolidation, technological advancement, and global expansion [17][19] - Key trends include a shift from scale advantages to ecological dominance, with a focus on high-end applications and green transformation [17][18][19]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the growth trends in China's non-ferrous metal production, indicating a positive outlook for the industry from 2025 to 2031, with specific data on production volumes and growth rates [1]. Industry Summary - In April 2025, China's production of ten non-ferrous metals reached 6.76 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.1% [1]. - From January to April 2025, the cumulative production of these metals totaled 26.6 million tons, showing a cumulative growth of 2.3% [1]. - The report is based on data from the National Bureau of Statistics and is compiled by Zhiyan Consulting, a leading industry research institution in China [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Market Weight" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, indicating that the industry is expected to perform within ±10% of the market index over the next six months [67]. Core Insights - Silver prices continue to reach new highs, with international gold prices surpassing $4,300 [2]. - As of October 16, 2025, the non-ferrous metals industry has seen a 3.35% increase over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.83 percentage points, ranking 4th among 31 industries [3][13]. - The precious metals sector has risen by 6.04%, while the industrial metals sector has increased by 3.58% during the same period [18]. Market Review - As of October 16, 2025, the COMEX gold price closed at $4,344.30 per ounce, up $828.2 since early September, while the COMEX silver price reached $53.43 per ounce, an increase of $12.68 [6][35]. - The LME copper price stood at $10,620 per ton, with other industrial metals like aluminum at $2,796 per ton and nickel at $15,230 per ton [25][60]. - The rare earth price index was recorded at 204.65, down 22.28 from early September, indicating a need for caution regarding external risk sentiment [42][61]. Industry News - The Ministry of Commerce announced export controls on rare earth-related technologies to safeguard the global supply chain and address illegal acquisition issues [50]. - The World Gold Council noted that overall gold holdings remain low, suggesting potential for future price increases despite current market concerns [50]. Company Announcements - Shenghe Resources expects a net profit increase of 697% to 783% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, driven by favorable market conditions for rare earth products [51][52]. - Northern Rare Earth anticipates a net profit increase of 273% to 287% for the same period, reflecting strong market demand and effective management strategies [53][54]. - Shandong Gold forecasts a net profit increase of 84% to 99% for the first three quarters of 2025, attributed to rising gold prices [57][58]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Zijin Mining (601899), Xinyi Silver (000426), and Chifeng Jilong Gold (600988) in the precious metals sector [60][63]. - For industrial metals, companies like Western Mining (601168) and Luoyang Molybdenum (603993) are recommended [60][63]. - In the rare earth sector, attention is drawn to Xiamen Tungsten (600549) and Northern Rare Earth (600111) [62][63].