截至12月24日，中证申万有色金属指数年内涨幅高达88%，创下近年来罕见的年度涨幅纪录。伦敦现货 黄金站上4500美元/盎司，LME铜价突破1.21万美元/吨，纽约银年内涨幅翻倍，钴价从年初16万元/吨反 弹至年末超40万元/吨，一系列核心品种价格屡破历史新高。 这场行情早已超越传统供需驱动的周期逻辑，成为全球产业链重构、AI浪潮崛起与央行资产配置调整 共同作用的必然结果。有色金属行业正从"被动跟随周期的工业原料"，向"主动定义价值的战略核心资 源"完成深刻转型。 头部企业凭借资源卡位与产业链一体化优势，实现股价与业绩的"戴维斯双击"，而AI、新能源等新兴领 域的需求爆发，更让钨、钽、钴等品种迎来价值重估。 华夏时报记者 张蓓 见习记者 黄指南 深圳报道 周期迭代藏机遇，资源重估启新程。 2025年资本市场的收官钟声临近，有色金属板块以领涨主线姿态贯穿全年，勾勒出全年资本市场的景气 主线。 在全球经济转型与技术革命的交汇点上，2025年的金属牛市不仅是价格的狂欢，更是行业高质量发展的 新起点，其背后的供需重构与企业转型逻辑，正重塑全球有色金属产业格局。 有色牛市下 金属行情分化与共性 供需两端的双向发力，是本 ...

Core Viewpoint - Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. has experienced significant stock price growth in 2023, with a year-to-date increase of 202.49% and notable recent performance over various time frames [2] Company Overview - Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. was established on December 22, 1999, and listed on October 9, 2012. The company is primarily engaged in the mining, selection, deep processing, trading, and research of precious metals such as molybdenum, tungsten, and gold [3] - The company's main business revenue composition includes: refined metal product trading (48.56%), concentrate product trading (38.31%), copper (27.14%), cobalt (6.04%), molybdenum (3.12%), phosphorus (2.23%), niobium (1.88%), tungsten (1.17%), and others (0.11%) [3] Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Luoyang Molybdenum achieved operating revenue of 145.485 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.99%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 72.61% to 14.280 billion yuan [3] - The company has distributed a total of 21.562 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 10.576 billion yuan distributed in the last three years [4] Stock Market Activity - As of December 29, the stock price of Luoyang Molybdenum was 19.35 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 1.329 billion yuan and a market capitalization of 413.98 billion yuan [1] - The stock has seen a net outflow of 120 million yuan in principal funds, with significant buying and selling activity from large orders [1] Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders reached 304,200, an increase of 28.08% from the previous period [3] - Major shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, which holds 695 million shares, and several ETFs with varying changes in shareholding [4]

Group 1 - Victory Energy (001331) has achieved an 11-day continuous rise, indicating strong market interest and potential volatility in its stock price [1] - Jia Mei Packaging (002969) has also seen significant price movement with 9 out of 11 days of gains, suggesting a similar trend of investor speculation [1] - The overall market showed a slight increase with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.1% and recording an 8-day upward trend, while trading volume increased to 2.16 trillion yuan, up 235.7 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1] Group 2 - The copper and aluminum sectors are performing strongly, with Jiangxi Copper (600362) hitting a new high since January 2008, and other companies like Zijin Mining (601899) and Luoyang Molybdenum (603993) also reaching historical peaks [1] - The market is experiencing rapid rotation of hotspots, with over 3,400 stocks declining, indicating a challenging environment for many investors [1] - The global metal futures market has resumed a "surge" mode, with COMEX gold, silver, and copper futures all reaching historical highs, reflecting strong demand and market dynamics [1] Group 3 - Fenglong Co. (002931) announced that after a change in control, the company will continue to focus on its original business, with no immediate plans for major changes or asset restructuring [2] - Victory Energy (001331) indicated that if its stock price continues to rise, it may apply for a trading suspension for verification, highlighting potential risks for investors [3] - Jia Mei Packaging (002969) also warned that if its stock price experiences further abnormal increases, it may seek a trading suspension, emphasizing the disconnect between stock price and fundamental performance [4] Group 4 - The U.S. stock market saw slight declines across major indices, with the Nasdaq down 0.09% and Tesla falling over 2%, indicating mixed performance among large tech stocks [5] - Despite the declines, the weekly performance showed positive trends for major indices, with the Nasdaq gaining 1.22% and the S&P 500 up 1.4%, suggesting resilience in the broader market [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of transforming and upgrading various industries in Henan province, focusing on four categories: "Original," "Old," "New," and "Foreign" brands, to achieve high-quality development and strengthen the foundation for modernization in Henan [1]. Group 1: Original Brands - Henan has a solid foundation in resource industries such as mining, steel, non-ferrous metals, construction materials, and chemicals, which are crucial for economic stability [2][3]. - The province is moving towards green development, with companies like Luoyang Molybdenum Co. adopting smart and eco-friendly mining practices, enhancing resource efficiency and sustainability [2]. - There is a push to move up the value chain, as seen in the aluminum industry in Gongyi, which has become a significant production base for aluminum products through recycling and deep processing [3]. - The province is focusing on developing nine material industry chains to transition from a raw material province to a strong new materials province [4]. Group 2: Old Brands - Traditional industries in Henan, such as food processing and traditional medicine, are being revitalized through product innovation and modernization, as exemplified by companies like Sanquan Foods [5][6]. - The transformation of traditional enterprises into high-tech leaders is highlighted by companies like Luozhou and Zhengzhou Coal Mining Machinery Group, which are adopting smart technologies [6]. - The government is supporting the upgrade of traditional industries through action plans aimed at enhancing manufacturing capabilities and promoting high-end, intelligent, and green transformations [6][7]. Group 3: New Brands - The new industries in Henan, particularly in AI and advanced computing, are rapidly expanding, with companies like Super Fusion leading in AI server manufacturing [8][9]. - The integration of artificial intelligence with the economy is creating new opportunities, as seen with Hanwei Technology's advancements in intelligent robotics [9]. - The province is focusing on key materials for emerging industries, such as lithium battery components, which are essential for the growth of the electric vehicle sector [9][10]. Group 4: Foreign Brands - Henan's enterprises are increasingly engaging in international markets, with companies like Nile River Machinery expanding their operations globally and establishing local facilities [10][11]. - The province achieved over 840 billion yuan in import and export value in the first eleven months of the year, indicating a robust external economic engagement [10][12]. - Efforts are being made to enhance the competitiveness of Henan's products and brands in the global market, supported by government policies aimed at facilitating international trade [11][12][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the copper industry [6]. Core Viewpoints - The report is optimistic about the upward trend in copper prices, expecting continued price increases due to tightening supply and improving demand [4][10]. - As of December 26, 2025, SHFE copper closed at 98,720 CNY/ton, up 5.95% from December 19, and LME copper closed at 12,133 USD/ton, up 3.37% [1][18]. - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasizes the need for enhanced management and optimization of the copper smelting industry [1]. Supply and Demand Summary - **Supply**: Domestic copper concentrate production in October 2025 was 130,000 tons, down 8.1% month-on-month and down 12.1% year-on-year. The domestic port copper concentrate inventory as of December 26, 2025, was 775,000 tons, up 5.9% from the previous week [2][50]. - **Demand**: The cable industry, which accounts for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand, saw a decrease in operating rates to 60.75%, down 5.96 percentage points from the previous week. Air conditioning production for January 2026 is expected to increase by 11% year-on-year [3][88]. Inventory Summary - Domestic copper social inventory increased by 16.8% week-on-week, while LME copper inventory decreased by 4.3% [2][27]. - As of December 19, 2025, global copper inventory across the three major exchanges totaled 716,000 tons, up 1.4% from December 12 [2][27]. Futures Market Summary - The active SHFE copper contract saw a 2% increase in open interest, reaching 252,000 contracts as of December 26, 2025 [4][34]. - COMEX non-commercial net long positions were at 65,000 contracts, up 3.8% week-on-week, indicating strong market sentiment [4][34]. Company Profit Forecasts and Valuation - Key companies in the copper sector are projected to have the following earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios: - Western Mining (601168.SH): EPS of 1.72 for 2025E, PE of 16 [5]. - Zijin Mining (601899.SH): EPS of 1.94 for 2025E, PE of 17 [5]. - Luoyang Molybdenum (603993.SH): EPS of 0.89 for 2025E, PE of 22 [5]. - Jincheng Mining (603979.SH): EPS of 3.61 for 2025E, PE of 23 [5].

Group 1 - The provincial secretary Liu Ning emphasized the importance of implementing the spirit of the 20th Central Committee and the Central Economic Work Conference, focusing on green and low-carbon transformation in economic and social development [2] - Liu Ning highlighted the need for comprehensive utilization of coal as a chemical raw material and the promotion of large-scale application of green low-carbon technologies at Henan Kaixiang Fine Chemical Co., Ltd. [3] - Liu Ning acknowledged the dual-driven development model of mining and trade at Luoyang Luanchuan Molybdenum Co., Ltd., and encouraged better coordination between domestic and international markets while enhancing compliance management [3] Group 2 - Liu Ning stressed the importance of integrating production, education, and research to leverage local medicinal resources at the Zhongyuan Medicine Valley Science and Technology Innovation Park [3] - Liu Ning called for a focus on environmental protection and soil conservation during the construction of the pumped storage power station in Luoning, advocating for a lifecycle approach to green development [3] - Liu Ning urged for enhanced safety measures in key areas such as hazardous chemicals and tailings management, emphasizing the need for regular inspections and maintenance [3] Group 3 - Liu Ning encouraged the development of local specialty brands to improve the livelihoods of villagers and emphasized the importance of effective grassroots governance [4] - Liu Ning highlighted the need for a scientific approach to the 14th Five-Year Plan, focusing on carbon reduction, pollution control, and green growth while promoting cultural tourism as a pillar industry [4] - Liu Ning called for coordinated efforts in ensuring social stability, managing energy supply, and addressing agricultural management as the year-end approaches [4]

行 业 及 产 业 有色金属 2025 年 12 月 28 日 相关研究 证券分析师 郭中伟 A0230524120004 guozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 金属价格强势突破，看好春季行情 看好 ——金属&新材料行业周报 20251222-20251226 本期投资提示： 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 - ⚫ 一周行情回顾：据 ifind，环比上周 1）上证指数上涨 1.88%，深证成指上涨 3.53%，沪深 300 上涨 1.95%，有色金属（申 万）指数上涨 6.43%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 4.48 个百分点。2）分子板块看，环比上周，贵金属上 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the positive outlook for strategic metals investment opportunities due to favorable supply-demand dynamics and resource nationalism [3][5][11]. Market Review: Strategic Metals Lead Nonferrous - From the beginning of the year until December 18, 2025, the nonferrous metals sector has risen by 78.53%, ranking second among all industries. Strategic metals have shown significant gains, with tungsten up 136.7%, cobalt up 69.1%, and rare earth permanent magnets up 56.7% [7]. Cobalt: Supply Tightening from Congo (DRC) - The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has implemented an export quota system for cobalt, leading to a projected supply-demand imbalance of -7.5/-3.3/-3.3 million tons for 2025-2027. The DRC's export ban and subsequent quota system are expected to keep cobalt prices elevated [3][14][16]. Rare Earths: Supply Expectations Tightening - The rare earth sector is experiencing tightening supply due to strategic export controls and a lack of public quota announcements. The price of light rare earths has seen fluctuations, with a peak price of 64.30 million yuan/ton for praseodymium and neodymium oxides in August 2025, followed by a decline [22][26][46]. Tungsten: Continued Supply-Demand Gap - The tungsten market is facing a supply squeeze due to mining restrictions and declining ore grades. Demand remains stable, supported by applications in military and photovoltaic sectors, suggesting that tungsten prices are likely to rise [3][5]. Tin: Supply Tightness and AI Demand Growth - The resumption of tin production in Myanmar is slow, with significant delays expected. However, the rapid development of AI is emerging as a new growth driver for tin demand [3][5]. Antimony: Export Recovery Expected - The suspension of export restrictions to the U.S. is anticipated to boost China's antimony exports, which currently account for 36% of its production. The lifting of these restrictions is expected to enhance export volumes significantly [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies benefiting from the tightening supply of strategic metals, including Huayou Cobalt, China Rare Earth, and Xiamen Tungsten. Specific recommendations include companies with significant cobalt production quotas in the DRC and those involved in rare earth processing [5][3].

Market Analysis - The A-share market continues to rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving an eight-day winning streak and total market turnover exceeding 2 trillion yuan, indicating increased market activity [3][4] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3963.68 points, up 0.10%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.54% to 13603.89 points, marking a six-day winning streak [4] - The overall market turnover reached 2.18 trillion yuan, a significant increase of 12.2% from the previous trading day, reflecting heightened liquidity [4][6] Industry Trends - The market is led by the non-ferrous metals sector, with notable performances from companies like Jiangxi Copper and Zijin Mining, which reached historical highs [7] - The launch of the National Venture Capital Guidance Fund aims to attract social capital into key sectors such as integrated circuits, quantum technology, and aerospace, enhancing market enthusiasm for emerging industries [7] - The hard technology sector experienced a pullback, indicating a potential shift in market focus as funds rotate towards sectors with better growth prospects [9] Bond Market - The bond market saw a broad increase, with long-term contracts showing significant gains; the 30-year main contract rose by 0.36% to close at 112.96 yuan [12] - The People's Bank of China conducted a net injection of 368 billion yuan, maintaining a loose monetary environment despite a reduction in the scale of net injections compared to previous days [12] Commodity Market - The commodity index increased, with notable rebounds in aluminum and lithium carbonate prices, reflecting strong market demand and supply constraints [12][16] - The lithium carbonate futures price surpassed 130,520 yuan per ton, reaching a new high for the year, driven by low inventory levels and tight supply expectations [16] Trading Hotspots - Key investment themes include precious metals, commercial aerospace, nuclear fusion, AI applications, and consumer sectors, driven by favorable policies and market dynamics [13][15] - The commercial aerospace sector is gaining traction due to government support and the establishment of new companies, while AI applications are accelerating with advancements from major tech firms [13][15]

Core Viewpoint - TFM Copper-Cobalt Mine, a subsidiary of Luoyang Luanchuan Molybdenum Group, has officially handed over the second batch of 2025 Social Responsibility Book construction achievements to the local community, covering various livelihood areas such as education, health, environment, and agriculture [1]. Group 1: Education Infrastructure - TFM Copper-Cobalt Mine has built and handed over 5 well-equipped primary schools and 2 kindergartens, and completed the comprehensive renovation and upgrade of Lukotola Vocational School, enhancing the education system around the mining area to provide quality learning conditions for local residents [3]. Group 2: Health and Environmental Management - The mine has introduced modern waste management equipment to the local area, handing over 7 new garbage collection trucks and 28 metal garbage bins, effectively filling the gap in local basic sanitation services and establishing a clean and healthy living environment for the community [4]. Group 3: Agricultural Support - TFM Copper-Cobalt Mine has constructed a 450-ton capacity agricultural product warehouse and a tractor shed, simultaneously providing agricultural materials that can cover 1,500 hectares of maize fields, thereby supporting regional food security and enhancing community economic resilience [6]. Group 4: Community Development Commitment - During the handover ceremony, TFM Copper-Cobalt Mine's CEO Li Leizhong emphasized that after four years of dedicated efforts, the results of the Social Responsibility Book project are substantial and far-reaching, driving profound changes in the community. The mine committed over $31 million to community projects covering various priority needs since signing the Social Responsibility Book with the local community in 2021 [8].