Group 1 - The non-ferrous metal sector experienced a significant upward trend on December 31, with copper and precious metals leading the gains [1] - Zijin Mining (601899) and Luoyang Molybdenum (603993) both rose over 4%, reaching new historical highs [1] - Jiangxi Copper (600362) approached the daily limit increase, marking its highest level since January 2008 [1] Group 2 - Other companies such as Shengda Resources (000603), Yunnan Copper (000878), and Tongling Nonferrous Metals (000630) also saw increases in their stock prices [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. has shown a positive stock performance, with a 1.02% increase in share price, reaching 19.72 CNY per share, and a total market capitalization of 421.896 billion CNY [1] - Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. was established on December 22, 1999, and listed on October 9, 2012. The company primarily engages in the mining, selection, deep processing, trading, and research of rare metals such as molybdenum, tungsten, and gold [1] - The main revenue composition of the company includes refined metal product trading (48.56%), concentrate product trading (38.31%), copper (27.14%), cobalt (6.04%), molybdenum (3.12%), phosphorus (2.23%), niobium (1.88%), tungsten (1.17%), and others (0.11%) [1] Group 2 - According to data, the fund "Lubo Mai Resource Select Stock Initiation A" holds a significant position in Luoyang Molybdenum, with 148,800 shares, accounting for 3.6% of the fund's net value, making it the tenth largest holding [2] - The fund has shown impressive performance, with a year-to-date return of 97.37%, ranking 38 out of 4189 in its category, and a one-year return of 94.18%, ranking 32 out of 4188 [2] - The fund manager, Huang Daoli, has a tenure of 1 year and 104 days, with the fund's total asset size at 64.9708 million CNY, achieving a best return of 78.74% and a worst return of 77.05% during his management period [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [1]. Core Views - The non-ferrous metals sector experienced a weekly increase of 6.43%, ranking first among all primary industries, with industrial metals rising by 7.07% and precious metals by 4.06% [1][13]. - The market is currently characterized by low liquidity due to the Christmas holiday, leading to a lack of effective guidance and a reliance on momentum trading [1][25]. - Investors should be cautious of potential pullback risks as liquidity returns and adjustments in commodity indices occur in early January [1][48]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.88%, with the non-ferrous metals sector outperforming by 4.54 percentage points [13]. - The industrial metals sector saw significant gains, with copper prices reaching 98,720 CNY/ton, up 5.95% week-on-week, and aluminum prices at 22,405 CNY/ton, up 0.99% [2][3]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: LME copper closed at 12,133 USD/ton, up 3.37% week-on-week. The TC price for imported copper ore fell to -43.2 USD/ton, indicating a significant drop from previous benchmarks [2][29]. - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum prices increased to 2,957 USD/ton, up 1.76% week-on-week, with domestic production capacity rising to 44.245 million tons [3][34]. - **Zinc**: LME zinc prices rose to 3,087 USD/ton, up 0.42% week-on-week, while SHFE zinc prices increased to 23,170 CNY/ton, up 0.46% [39]. - **Tin**: LME tin prices reached 42,490 USD/ton, up 0.51% week-on-week, with supply gradually increasing as production resumes in Myanmar [45]. Precious Metals - **Gold**: COMEX gold closed at 4,562.00 USD/oz, up 4.54% week-on-week, while SHFE gold reached 1,016.30 CNY/g, up 3.71% [48][49]. - **Silver**: COMEX silver surged by 21.71% week-on-week, closing at 79.68 USD/oz, with SHFE silver up 19.14% to 18,319.00 CNY/ton [48][49]. Inventory Changes - Copper inventories on LME decreased by 2.10% to 15.70 million tons, while SHFE inventories increased by 16.59% to 11.17 million tons [30]. - Aluminum inventories on LME rose by 0.28% to 52.11 million tons, and SHFE inventories increased by 6.64% to 12.85 million tons [34]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights the impact of low liquidity and mixed economic data on market trends, emphasizing the need for investors to remain vigilant regarding potential market corrections in the coming weeks [1][48].

Core Viewpoint - Luoyang Molybdenum's initiative to establish the "Ban·Mo Academy" in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has been recognized as an excellent case for overseas vocational education, showcasing the company's commitment to local talent development and international cooperation in education [1][8]. Group 1: Company Initiatives - Luoyang Molybdenum operates two world-class mines, TFM and KFM, in the DRC, with over 90% of its employees being local [1][8]. - The company faces challenges in local talent shortages but is leveraging China's "going out" strategy in vocational education to support international integration of education and industry [1][8]. - The collaboration with Zaozhuang Vocational College aims to provide "Chinese + Skills" training to cultivate high-quality local talent that meets the company's needs [1][8]. Group 2: Training Programs - In November of last year, two instructors from Zaozhuang Vocational College conducted a two-month welding skills training at TFM, utilizing a "theory + practice" model [3][10]. - The training covered essential topics such as welding fundamentals, safety protocols, equipment maintenance, and quality control, resulting in over 70 trainees completing the program with significantly improved skills [3][10]. Group 3: Innovations and Cultural Exchange - The training program incorporates innovative strategies such as "school-enterprise cooperation" and "customized training solutions," along with a unique "Chinese + Skills" training model that combines language learning with skill enhancement [5][12]. - The naming of the "Ban·Mo Academy" reflects a cultural innovation aimed at promoting Chinese craftsmanship and facilitating cultural exchange between China and Africa [5][12]. Group 4: Future Plans - Luoyang Molybdenum plans to launch similar skill training programs at the KFM project in the first half of next year [7][14]. - The company aims to deepen cooperation with international educational institutions by establishing a globally recognized skill certification system, sending experienced technical experts for on-site teaching, and implementing a "two-way exchange program for international skilled talent" [7][14][15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the steel industry and a "Positive" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, with "Buy" ratings for specific companies including Luoyang Molybdenum (603993), Zhongjin Gold (600489), Huayou Cobalt (603799), Zijin Mining (601899), and China Aluminum (601600) [5][6]. Core Insights - The steel industry is expected to see improved profitability due to the implementation of stable growth policies and an anticipated increase in demand from shipbuilding and construction sectors. The focus on "equipment upgrades" and "low-carbon transformation" is expected to drive industry development [3][5]. - In the copper sector, global copper supply is projected to tighten further due to incidents at major mines, providing support for copper prices. Demand is expected to increase as major economies enter a rate-cutting cycle, enhancing the industry's outlook [3][5]. - The aluminum sector is facing a supply surplus, with stable supply conditions and weak demand expected to keep prices under pressure in the short term. However, the industry is anticipated to benefit from improved profitability as the "anti-involution" policy takes effect [5][6]. - Gold prices are influenced by geopolitical risks and changes in U.S. economic data, with long-term trends favoring gold due to central bank purchases and the weakening of the U.S. dollar [5][6]. - The rare earth sector is expected to see a revaluation of related companies due to China's export control upgrades, with significant demand growth anticipated from robotics and new energy sectors [5][6]. - The cobalt market is expected to remain tight due to constrained supply from the Democratic Republic of Congo, with demand driven by electric vehicles and consumer electronics [5][6]. Summary by Sections Steel Industry - The steel industry is experiencing a seasonal decline in demand, with limited improvement expected. Steel inventory pressures may accumulate further as demand weakens [2][3][16]. - As of December 26, 2025, the total steel inventory was 12.58 million tons, a decrease of 2.73% from the previous week but an increase of 12.07% year-on-year [24][25]. - The average price of steel on December 26 was 3,439.15 CNY per ton, reflecting a decrease of 0.28% from the previous week [31][32]. Copper Industry - The copper market is facing a seasonal demand slowdown, with high prices suppressing downstream demand. Supply is expected to contract as the year ends, leading to weaker price drivers in the short term [4][34]. - On December 26, the price of copper was 98,000 CNY per ton, an increase of 5.79% from the previous week [38]. Aluminum Industry - The aluminum sector is characterized by stable supply and weak demand, with prices expected to remain under pressure. The average price of aluminum on December 26 was 22,000 CNY per ton, a 0.92% increase from the previous week [42]. Gold Industry - Geopolitical tensions and U.S. economic data are key factors influencing gold prices, which are expected to experience increased volatility in the short term. On December 26, gold prices were 4,562.00 USD per ounce, up 4.42% from the previous week [47]. Rare Earth and Cobalt Industries - The rare earth sector is poised for growth due to strategic importance and demand from emerging technologies. The cobalt market is expected to remain tight, driven by electric vehicle demand [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley reports that the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has issued an article titled "Vigorously Promoting the Optimization and Upgrading of Traditional Industries," which emphasizes the management and optimization of the alumina and copper smelting industries, encouraging large backbone enterprises in these sectors to pursue mergers and acquisitions [1] Industry Summary - The new policy may restrict the planning of new alumina production capacity, which is expected to benefit industry leaders such as China Aluminum and China Hongqiao [1] - The anticipated lower annual copper concentrate processing/refining fees and long-term contract concentrate volumes may indicate a reduction in refined copper production by 2026 [1] - These factors, combined with relatively stable demand, are expected to support copper prices at high levels, benefiting companies like Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Minmetals Resources, and Jiangxi Copper [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the active performance of non-ferrous metal stocks, with significant gains observed in companies such as China Aluminum, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Zijin Mining [1] - China Aluminum (601600) increased by 5.61%, reaching HKD 12.23; Luoyang Molybdenum (603993) rose by 3.3% to HKD 19.08; Zijin Mining (601899) saw a 3.05% increase to HKD 35.16; Jiangxi Copper (600362) gained 2.47% to HKD 40.64; and China Hongqiao (01378) was up by 1.7% to HKD 32.3 [1] - Precious metals have regained upward momentum, with spot gold rising over 1% to touch USD 4,380, and spot silver increasing by over 4% to surpass USD 75 [1] Group 2 - CITIC Construction Investment (601066) noted that insufficient capital expenditure, limited resource supply, strong AI demand prospects, expanding fiscal deficits, and a downward interest rate cycle are contributing factors to the uneven distribution of physical commodities between the US and non-US markets [1] - The article suggests that these factors are leading to a lack of liquidity in certain commodities, prompting capital inflows to take long positions [1] - A new resource pricing paradigm is emerging globally, driven by the interplay of limited resources and weakening US dollar credit, indicating a vibrant market for non-ferrous metals [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the copper market is experiencing strong demand and supply mismatch, with optimistic economic expectations supporting price increases, while caution is advised regarding short-term price volatility [1][2][3] - On December 26, major metal prices surged, with COMEX copper rising by 4.96% to $5.8515 per pound and Shanghai copper increasing by 3.33% to 101,380 yuan per ton, marking a new historical high [1][2] - Factors contributing to the strong market sentiment include supply chain disruptions, resource nationalism, and a gradual economic recovery in major economies, leading to a strong willingness to buy copper [2] Group 2 - The economic outlook for 2026 is moderately optimistic, with the Federal Reserve projecting GDP growth of 2.1%-2.5%, which is expected to support industrial metal demand and further increase copper prices [3] - Despite the positive outlook, there are concerns about inflation and potential impacts on Federal Reserve interest rate policies, which could affect copper prices [3] - Investment recommendations include leading industrial metal companies such as Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Western Mining, Tongling Nonferrous Metals, Yunnan Copper, Jiangxi Copper, and Jincheng Mining [3]

Core Viewpoint - The prices of gold, silver, copper, and aluminum futures rebounded in early trading on December 30, with gold-related products showing a narrowing decline, indicating a potential recovery in the precious metals market [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of 10:25 AM on December 30, the gold ETF Huaxia (518850) fell by 2.17%, while the gold stock ETF (159562) saw its decline narrow to 0.4% [1]. - The non-ferrous metals ETF fund (516650) turned positive during the session, rising by 0.11%, with notable gains in stocks such as Yun Aluminum, which increased by over 3% [1]. - The non-ferrous metals ETF fund has experienced continuous net inflows over the past five days, totaling 931 million yuan [1]. Group 2: Fund Statistics - As of December 29, the latest share count for the fund reached 1.856 billion shares, with a total scale of 3.414 billion yuan, both marking all-time highs since its inception [1]. - The fund's scale has grown over 32 times within the year [1]. Group 3: Metal Composition - The non-ferrous metals ETF fund closely tracks the CSI segmented non-ferrous metals industry theme index, focusing on gold, copper, aluminum, rare earths, tungsten, molybdenum, and energy metals like lithium and cobalt [1]. - The weightings of various metals in the fund are as follows: copper 30.9%, aluminum 15%, gold 13.5%, rare earths 9.3%, and lithium 8.8%, with the combined weight of copper, aluminum, and gold reaching 59.1%, the highest in the market [1].

年度报告——铜 革故鼎新，迭创新高 | [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] | | | 铜：看涨 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 | 年 | 12 | 月 | 30 | 日 | [Table_Analyser] | [★Ta原bl料e_端Summary] 矿端紧缺加剧，冷料补充有限，预计 2026 年全球铜矿产量边际 增长至 30-45 万金属吨。极端天气频发、地缘政策潜变、资源民 族主义抬头、矿石品位下降及水资源紧张、社区问题不稳及罢 工潜在威胁已经构成"系统性扰动风险"。 ★冶炼端 有 色 金 加工利润继续恶化，产能限制风险抬升，冶炼主动降负荷范围 扩大，2026 年全球精铜产量边际增长恐低于 50 万吨。明年将更 多围绕减产预期博弈，盘面及结构均会受到影响。海外供给生 态更为脆弱，间接影响铜元素进口。副产品收益继续观察。 ★需求端 需求新周期悄然开启，"旧动能不弱，新动能更强"，乐观预 计 2026 年全球铜需求边际增速超过 4%。新能源需求与国内传统 需求阶段被低估风险上升，明年存在阶 ...