Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that Dongpeng Beverage Group Co., Ltd. has seen its Hong Kong IPO application expire after six months, with Huatai International, Morgan Stanley, and UBS serving as joint sponsors [1] Group 2 - Dongpeng Beverage is recognized as the leading functional beverage company in China and globally, with the highest revenue growth among the top 20 listed soft drink companies worldwide [2] - According to a report by Frost & Sullivan, Dongpeng Beverage has maintained its number one position in the Chinese functional beverage market for four consecutive years since 2021, with its market share increasing from 15.0% in 2021 to 26.3% in 2024 [2]

Core Viewpoint - Dongpeng Beverage is the leading functional beverage company in China and globally, with significant revenue growth and market share expansion in the functional drink sector [1] Company Summary - Dongpeng Beverage submitted its Hong Kong IPO prospectus on April 3, which became invalid after six months on October 3, with Huatai International, Morgan Stanley, and UBS serving as joint sponsors [1] - The company has ranked first in the Chinese functional beverage market for four consecutive years since 2021, according to a report by Frost & Sullivan [1] - Dongpeng's market share in the functional beverage sector has increased from 15.0% in 2021 to an estimated 26.3% in 2024 [1] Industry Summary - Dongpeng Beverage is recognized as the fastest-growing company among the top 20 listed soft drink companies globally, leading in revenue growth [1]

Core Viewpoint - Dongpeng Beverage Group Co., Ltd. is a leading functional beverage company in China and globally, with significant revenue growth and market share expansion in the functional beverage sector [1] Company Summary - Dongpeng Beverage submitted its Hong Kong IPO application on April 3, which became invalid after six months on October 3, with Huatai International, Morgan Stanley, and UBS serving as joint sponsors [1] - The company ranks first in the Chinese functional beverage market by sales for four consecutive years since 2021, with its market share increasing from 15.0% in 2021 to 26.3% in 2024 [1] Industry Summary - Dongpeng Beverage is recognized as the fastest-growing company among the top 20 listed soft drink companies globally, leading in revenue growth [1]

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Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained as "Outperform" [6] Core Views - The high-end liquor prices have rebounded, which may temporarily boost market confidence. The current Shenyin Wanguo white liquor index PE-TTM is at 18.66X, which is 3.13% lower than the reasonable level over the past decade. The dividend returns from leading liquor companies are attractive, and consumer spending is expected to gradually recover, suggesting a focus on recovery opportunities in the sector [1][13][19]. Summary by Sections Market Performance Review - From September 22 to September 26, the food and beverage sector declined by 2.49%, while the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.21% and the CSI 300 Index rose by 1.07%. Specific sub-sectors include soft drinks (+0.86%), meat products (-0.02%), beer (-0.77%), snacks (-1.33%), and others [20]. Weekly Updates - **Liquor**: The white liquor sector fell by 3.03%, underperforming the overall food and beverage sector. High-end liquor prices have increased, with Feitian Moutai rising by 90 yuan per bottle over five days. Despite slight pressure on consumption, the price increase may boost market confidence [1][13]. - **Yellow Wine**: Key players like Kuaijishan and Guyuelongshan saw declines of 5.80% and 2.24%, respectively. The sector is entering a verification phase for product distribution and sales [2]. - **Beer**: The beer sector decreased by 0.77%. Notable companies include Qingdao Beer (+0.2%) and Yanjing Beer (+1.7%). Future consumption policies are expected to drive sales recovery [2][14]. - **Soft Drinks**: The soft drink sector showed positive performance, with significant gains from companies like Yangyuan Beverage (+32.49%) and Jinziham (+11.93%). The sector remains attractive due to ongoing trends [3][15]. Investment Recommendations - **White Liquor**: Focus on three main lines: strong beta stocks (e.g., Jiugui Liquor, Shui Jing Fang), recovery concept stocks (e.g., Yingjia Gongjiu), and strong alpha stocks (e.g., Shanxi Fenjiu, Guizhou Moutai) [19]. - **Beer**: Emphasize three main lines: sustained growth stocks (e.g., Dongpeng Beverage, Nongfu Spring), potential performance rebound stocks (e.g., Angel Yeast), and category expansion stocks (e.g., Kuaijishan) [19]. Sector and Individual Stock Performance - The food and beverage sector's dynamic PE ratio is 21.0 times, ranking 22nd among primary industries. The soft drink sector has the highest valuation increase this week, while the health product sector saw the smallest decrease [28]. Key Data Tracking - The average price of fresh milk in major production areas is 3.03 yuan per kilogram, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 3.50%. The decline in prices has been narrowing since the beginning of the year [18].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to multiple companies in the consumer staples sector, including Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and others, indicating a positive outlook for these stocks [1]. Core Insights - The wholesale prices of Baijiu have mostly declined, with notable decreases in prices for Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye, while prices for most consumer goods remain stable [4][10]. - The report highlights a significant drop in the discount rates for liquid milk products, indicating a shift in consumer purchasing behavior [6][18]. - Overall, the report suggests that the impact of funds is greater, advising attention to low-position stocks and heavyweight stocks in the consumer staples sector [8]. Summary by Sections Baijiu Pricing - Guizhou Moutai's wholesale prices for Feitian (case and single bottle) are 1790 and 1770 yuan, respectively, reflecting a decrease of 55 and 70 yuan from the previous month [4][37]. - Wuliangye's eighth-generation price is 895 yuan, down 25 yuan from last month [4][37]. - Luzhou Laojiao's Guojiao 1573 price increased by 10 yuan to 850 yuan [4][37]. Consumer Goods Pricing - The average discount rate for liquid milk products decreased from 74.8% to 69.4% since the end of August [6][21]. - Discount rates for soft drinks, condiments, instant foods, and beer remained stable, with slight variations in average and median values [19][35]. - The report notes that the discount rate for infant formula products also showed a minor decrease from 89.5% to 88.7% [21][35]. Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring low-position stocks and heavyweight stocks due to the greater impact of funds on the market [8].

Core Insights - The beverage and dairy sector experienced a rise of 1.35% on September 30, with Dongpeng Beverage leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3882.78, up 0.52%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13526.51, up 0.35% [1] Sector Performance - Dongpeng Beverage (605499) closed at 303.80, up 4.56% with a trading volume of 30,800 lots and a transaction value of 260.6 million [1] - Liziyuan (605337) closed at 12.76, up 3.24% with a trading volume of 89,700 lots and a transaction value of 113 million [1] - Zhuangyuan Pasture (002910) closed at 9.87, up 2.39% with a trading volume of 55,800 lots and a transaction value of 54.32 million [1] - Other notable performers include Miaokelan (600882) up 1.33% and Wewei (600300) up 1.21% [1] Capital Flow - The beverage and dairy sector saw a net inflow of 61.14 million from main funds, while retail funds experienced a net outflow of 52.40 million [2] - Main funds showed significant inflows into Yili (600887) with 84.83 million and Dongpeng Beverage with 80.06 million [3] - Liziyuan (605337) also attracted 15.31 million from main funds, indicating strong institutional interest [3]

本报讯(记者袁传玺)天眼查工商信息显示，近日，东鹏饮料（605499）营销(江苏)有限公司成立，法定 代表人为林木港，注册资本1000万元，经营范围为食品销售、市场营销策划、销售代理、采购代理服 务、品牌管理、包装材料及制品销售、企业管理、货物进出口、技术进出口。股东信息显示，该公司由 东鹏饮料全资持股。 ...

Market Overview - The beverage and dairy sector increased by 0.9% on September 29, with Yangyuan Beverage leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3862.53, up 0.9%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13479.43, up 2.05% [1] Stock Performance - Key stocks in the beverage and dairy sector showed varied performance, with notable gainers including: - Chi Yuan Beverage (603156) at 30.30, up 7.68% with a trading volume of 446,200 shares and a turnover of 1.337 billion [1] - Dongpeng Beverage (605499) at 290.55, up 1.75% with a trading volume of 16,700 shares and a turnover of 480 million [1] - Other stocks like Zhuangyuan Pasture (002910) and Huangshi Group (002329) also saw modest increases of 1.47% and 1.13% respectively [1] Capital Flow - The beverage and dairy sector experienced a net outflow of 224 million from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 135 million [2] - Notable capital flows included: - Institutional net inflow for Dongpeng Beverage at 56.24 million, while retail saw a net outflow of 55.29 million [3] - Bright Dairy (600597) had a net inflow of 9.92 million from institutional investors, with retail outflows totaling 8.16 million [3]

Summary of China Beverages Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China Beverages** industry, particularly the **ready-to-drink (RTD)** segment and competition from **freshly-made drinks (FMD)**. - The covered China Beverages names have outperformed the MSCI China Staples Index, with an average increase of approximately **20% YTD** compared to **17% YTD** for the index [1][4]. Key Insights and Arguments - **Cautious Outlook**: The company adopts a more selective stance in the beverage sector due to rising competition and cautious pricing trends expected into **2026**. Increased promotions and a shift towards larger pack sizes are anticipated by the end of **2025** [1][4]. - **Top Picks**: **Eastroc** is highlighted as a top pick due to its potential for market share gain and portfolio expansion, supported by strong channel execution and resilience against FMD competition [1][4]. - **Nongfu's Performance**: Nongfu is expected to recover market share in packaged water, with an estimated **80%+** market share in the sugar-free tea segment by the end of this year, up from **65%-70%** in **2024** [1][4]. - **Earnings Adjustments**: Earnings for **UPC** and **Tingyi** have been adjusted down by **3%-8%** and **1%-3%** respectively for **2025E-27E** due to slower sales growth trends. Conversely, Nongfu's earnings have been revised up by **0.2%-1.7%** for the same period [1][4]. Competitive Landscape - **FMD Competition**: The competition from FMD brands is intensifying, particularly in **3Q**. The impact on RTD beverages is more pronounced than previously expected, with a projected **3%** volume hit to bottled beverages for the full year **2025** [1][6]. - **Promotional Pressure**: Increased promotions have led to weakened pricing for RTD drinks, with a narrowing price gap between RTD and mass-market FMD [1][8]. - **Market Dynamics**: Historical brand disputes in the beverage industry have shown long-lasting negative impacts on sales and market share dynamics, providing opportunities for competitors to gain market share [1][7][13]. Financial Projections - **Earnings Growth Expectations**: Expected year-over-year earnings growth for **Nongfu/Eastroc/Tingyi/UPC** in **2H25** is **29%/35%/7%/17%** respectively, while **CR Beverage** is projected to see a **49%** earnings decline [1][4]. - **Cost Trends**: Anticipated **3%-6%** unit cost deflation in **2025** is expected to lead to **2.0-3.3ppt** gross profit margin (GPM) expansion. However, cost benefits are moderating, particularly in **PET/sugar** [1][24][25]. Additional Insights - **Wahaha Brand Dynamics**: The potential launch of a new brand "Wa Xiao Zong" by Hongsheng Group in **2026** could shift market dynamics in the bottled water segment, particularly affecting Wahaha's market share [1][16][17]. - **Scenario Analysis**: The report includes scenario analyses predicting potential market share movements for **Nongfu** and **CR Beverage** based on the dynamics surrounding the Wahaha brand dispute [1][20][21]. Conclusion - The China Beverages industry is facing heightened competition and changing market dynamics, particularly from FMD brands. Companies like Eastroc and Nongfu are positioned to capitalize on these changes, while others like UPC and Tingyi may face challenges. The financial outlook remains cautiously optimistic, with adjustments made to earnings forecasts reflecting the competitive landscape.