Core Insights - The beverage and dairy sector experienced a rise of 1.35% on September 30, with Dongpeng Beverage leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3882.78, up 0.52%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13526.51, up 0.35% [1] Sector Performance - Dongpeng Beverage (605499) closed at 303.80, up 4.56% with a trading volume of 30,800 lots and a transaction value of 260.6 million [1] - Liziyuan (605337) closed at 12.76, up 3.24% with a trading volume of 89,700 lots and a transaction value of 113 million [1] - Zhuangyuan Pasture (002910) closed at 9.87, up 2.39% with a trading volume of 55,800 lots and a transaction value of 54.32 million [1] - Other notable performers include Miaokelan (600882) up 1.33% and Wewei (600300) up 1.21% [1] Capital Flow - The beverage and dairy sector saw a net inflow of 61.14 million from main funds, while retail funds experienced a net outflow of 52.40 million [2] - Main funds showed significant inflows into Yili (600887) with 84.83 million and Dongpeng Beverage with 80.06 million [3] - Liziyuan (605337) also attracted 15.31 million from main funds, indicating strong institutional interest [3]

本报讯(记者袁传玺)天眼查工商信息显示，近日，东鹏饮料（605499）营销(江苏)有限公司成立，法定 代表人为林木港，注册资本1000万元，经营范围为食品销售、市场营销策划、销售代理、采购代理服 务、品牌管理、包装材料及制品销售、企业管理、货物进出口、技术进出口。股东信息显示，该公司由 东鹏饮料全资持股。 ...

Market Overview - The beverage and dairy sector increased by 0.9% on September 29, with Yangyuan Beverage leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3862.53, up 0.9%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13479.43, up 2.05% [1] Stock Performance - Key stocks in the beverage and dairy sector showed varied performance, with notable gainers including: - Chi Yuan Beverage (603156) at 30.30, up 7.68% with a trading volume of 446,200 shares and a turnover of 1.337 billion [1] - Dongpeng Beverage (605499) at 290.55, up 1.75% with a trading volume of 16,700 shares and a turnover of 480 million [1] - Other stocks like Zhuangyuan Pasture (002910) and Huangshi Group (002329) also saw modest increases of 1.47% and 1.13% respectively [1] Capital Flow - The beverage and dairy sector experienced a net outflow of 224 million from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 135 million [2] - Notable capital flows included: - Institutional net inflow for Dongpeng Beverage at 56.24 million, while retail saw a net outflow of 55.29 million [3] - Bright Dairy (600597) had a net inflow of 9.92 million from institutional investors, with retail outflows totaling 8.16 million [3]

Summary of China Beverages Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China Beverages** industry, particularly the **ready-to-drink (RTD)** segment and competition from **freshly-made drinks (FMD)**. - The covered China Beverages names have outperformed the MSCI China Staples Index, with an average increase of approximately **20% YTD** compared to **17% YTD** for the index [1][4]. Key Insights and Arguments - **Cautious Outlook**: The company adopts a more selective stance in the beverage sector due to rising competition and cautious pricing trends expected into **2026**. Increased promotions and a shift towards larger pack sizes are anticipated by the end of **2025** [1][4]. - **Top Picks**: **Eastroc** is highlighted as a top pick due to its potential for market share gain and portfolio expansion, supported by strong channel execution and resilience against FMD competition [1][4]. - **Nongfu's Performance**: Nongfu is expected to recover market share in packaged water, with an estimated **80%+** market share in the sugar-free tea segment by the end of this year, up from **65%-70%** in **2024** [1][4]. - **Earnings Adjustments**: Earnings for **UPC** and **Tingyi** have been adjusted down by **3%-8%** and **1%-3%** respectively for **2025E-27E** due to slower sales growth trends. Conversely, Nongfu's earnings have been revised up by **0.2%-1.7%** for the same period [1][4]. Competitive Landscape - **FMD Competition**: The competition from FMD brands is intensifying, particularly in **3Q**. The impact on RTD beverages is more pronounced than previously expected, with a projected **3%** volume hit to bottled beverages for the full year **2025** [1][6]. - **Promotional Pressure**: Increased promotions have led to weakened pricing for RTD drinks, with a narrowing price gap between RTD and mass-market FMD [1][8]. - **Market Dynamics**: Historical brand disputes in the beverage industry have shown long-lasting negative impacts on sales and market share dynamics, providing opportunities for competitors to gain market share [1][7][13]. Financial Projections - **Earnings Growth Expectations**: Expected year-over-year earnings growth for **Nongfu/Eastroc/Tingyi/UPC** in **2H25** is **29%/35%/7%/17%** respectively, while **CR Beverage** is projected to see a **49%** earnings decline [1][4]. - **Cost Trends**: Anticipated **3%-6%** unit cost deflation in **2025** is expected to lead to **2.0-3.3ppt** gross profit margin (GPM) expansion. However, cost benefits are moderating, particularly in **PET/sugar** [1][24][25]. Additional Insights - **Wahaha Brand Dynamics**: The potential launch of a new brand "Wa Xiao Zong" by Hongsheng Group in **2026** could shift market dynamics in the bottled water segment, particularly affecting Wahaha's market share [1][16][17]. - **Scenario Analysis**: The report includes scenario analyses predicting potential market share movements for **Nongfu** and **CR Beverage** based on the dynamics surrounding the Wahaha brand dispute [1][20][21]. Conclusion - The China Beverages industry is facing heightened competition and changing market dynamics, particularly from FMD brands. Companies like Eastroc and Nongfu are positioned to capitalize on these changes, while others like UPC and Tingyi may face challenges. The financial outlook remains cautiously optimistic, with adjustments made to earnings forecasts reflecting the competitive landscape.

宗馥莉计划启用娃小宗新品牌的消息在业内引发强烈震动。9月27日，高盛发布深度研究报告，详细分析了娃哈哈商标归属纠纷可能带来的影响。高盛预 测，娃小宗与娃哈哈品牌之争，堪比当年王老吉大战加多宝，这一事件或将重构中国瓶装水格局，农夫山泉有望成为最大受益者，而华润饮料、东鹏饮料 （605499）也将间接受益。在报告中，高盛将农夫山泉12个月目标价从之前的53.2港元上调至60.5港元。 Part.01 娃哈哈换标3000亿瓶装水市场生变 通过分析红牛、王老吉/加多宝等过往品牌纠纷案例，高盛研究发现，涉及商标/所有权纠纷的品牌，通常会受到长期负面影响，这将改变品类竞争格局， 并为主要竞争对手提供市占率提升机会。 2016年红牛(中国)因授权纠纷，全年销售额同比下降中双位数；2017年同比下降10%-20%；2017-2024年红牛(中国)的复合年增长率仅为低个位数。与之对 比，其直接竞争对手东鹏饮料展现出强劲市占率提升能力——市占率从2018年的约15%提升至2024年的超30%。 2016-2017年，加多宝与广州医药集团(王老吉商标所有者)就王老吉商标归属爆发纠纷，期间加多宝即饮茶业务销售额同比下降10%-20% ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the liquor sector, particularly for high-end brands like Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye, indicating a left-side configuration opportunity in the white liquor segment [3][12][14]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the core products in the liquor industry, such as Feitian Moutai and Wuliangye, have seen a rebound in wholesale prices, attributed to effective channel management by manufacturers [2][12]. - It is anticipated that the sales volume in the white liquor sector will decline by approximately 20% year-on-year, but the rate of decline is expected to narrow compared to previous months, indicating a potential stabilization in the market [11][12]. - The report emphasizes the increasing diversification of purchasing channels for liquor, with a notable shift towards online and new media platforms, which is reshaping consumer behavior [2][12][14]. Summary by Sections White Liquor - The report notes a recovery in the wholesale prices of key products, driven by improved channel management and a positive reception during the upcoming Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays [2][12]. - It suggests that the white liquor sector is entering a phase where inventory levels can be significantly reduced, leading to a temporary release of price pressure [12][14]. - Recommendations include focusing on high-end brands with strong market positions and exploring potential catalysts in the broader liquor market [3][12][14]. Beer - The beer sector is experiencing steady recovery in on-premise consumption, with companies diversifying into non-draft channels and soft drinks [14]. - The report encourages continued attention to the beer sector due to its solid performance and dividend levels [3][14]. Yellow Wine - The yellow wine industry is seeing price increases among leading brands, which may lead to a more stable competitive landscape [14]. - The report highlights the importance of marketing and product innovation in the yellow wine sector as it approaches peak season [14]. Snacks - The snack industry is maintaining high growth, with new retail channels expanding rapidly and product diversity increasing [4][15]. - The report suggests that the upcoming holiday season will boost demand for snack products, particularly nut gift boxes [4][15]. Soft Drinks - The soft drink sector is nearing the end of its peak season, with segments like energy drinks and sugar-free teas showing strong growth [4][16]. - The report indicates that traditional categories are facing challenges, but health-oriented products are performing well [4][16]. Condiments - The condiment sector is stabilizing, with expectations of demand recovery in the restaurant chain segment [5][17]. - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong competitive advantages and improving profit margins [5][17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the food and beverage industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the market index by over 10% in the next six months [53]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the focus on liquor sales during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, suggesting that consumer demand remains under pressure, particularly for high-end liquor brands like Kweichow Moutai [4][48]. - The report indicates a structural opportunity in mass-market products, with varying performance across different sub-sectors, emphasizing the importance of monitoring demand and cost indicators in the beer sector and consumption recovery in the condiment sector [4][48]. Summary by Sections Market Review - From September 12 to September 25, 2025, the SW food and beverage industry index fell by 5.76%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by approximately 6.76 percentage points [11]. - All sub-sectors underperformed the CSI 300 index during this period, with the baking sector experiencing the largest decline at -7.80% [13][14]. - Approximately 7% of stocks in the industry recorded positive returns, with notable gainers including Qianwei Yangchu (+21.90%) and Yangyuan Beverage (+16.80%) [15] . Industry Important Data Tracking Liquor Sector - As of September 25, 2025, the price of Feitian Moutai decreased to 1,765 RMB per bottle, while the price of Guojiao 1573 increased to 840 RMB per bottle [22]. Condiment Sector - As of September 25, 2025, the price of soybean meal was 2,988 RMB per ton, down 72 RMB from September 11, while the price of white sugar was 5,780 RMB per ton, down 110 RMB [25]. Beer Sector - As of September 25, 2025, the average price of barley was 2,230 RMB per ton, while the price of aluminum ingots was 20,710 RMB per ton, down 100 RMB [30]. Dairy Sector - The average price of fresh milk remained stable at 3.03 RMB per kilogram as of September 19, 2025 [37]. Meat Products Sector - The average wholesale price of pork was 19.44 RMB per kilogram as of September 25, 2025, down 0.49 RMB from September 11 [39]. Industry News - The report notes a slight decline in the national liquor price index in early September 2025, indicating ongoing market adjustments [41]. - The number of registered beer-related enterprises increased by 10.83% year-on-year from January to August 2025, reflecting a growing market [42]. Weekly Industry Perspective - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring liquor sales during the upcoming holidays and suggests focusing on high-certainty liquor brands and mass-market products that benefit from policy catalysts [48].

东鹏饮料 20250924 摘要 东鹏饮料已发展成行业第二大龙头，销售量超越红牛，占据近 30%市场 份额，完成从广东及两广市场到全国化的扩张，并拓展至能量饮料、运 动饮料、即饮茶和咖啡等多品类。 公司通过数字化手段和扫码红包体系，截至 2024 年底已拥有 400 万个 销售网点，预计 2025 年底将拓展至 450 万个，远超香飘飘、养元等竞 争品牌。 区域方面，西南、华中、华北等地实现 50%以上增长；产品结构上，补 水类产品 2024 年达 15 亿元规模，预计 2025 年翻倍至 32-35 亿元， 新果汁茶全年目标两次上调至 7-8 亿元。 东鹏饮料商业模式类似农夫山泉，通过长生命周期产品培育新品，能量 饮料品类具有高粘性、高生命周期特点，且 ROE、净利润和毛利率较高， 竞争格局良好。 国内市场，2022 年以来单点产出维持 15%左右增速，客群从外卖小哥 拓展至白领，预计 2027 年前后特定品项仍有 15-20%复合增长率，同 时积极拓展东南亚、中东等海外市场。 Q&A 东鹏饮料自上市以来的收入和利润增长情况如何？ 截至 2024 年底，东鹏饮料已拥有 400 万个销售网点，到 2025 年 ...

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - On September 24, a total of 93 stocks appeared on the block trading platform, with a cumulative trading volume of 239 million shares and a total trading value of 3.612 billion yuan, indicating active trading in the market [1]. Group 1: Trading Activity - The highest trading value was recorded for Zijin Mining, with two transactions totaling 363 million yuan [1]. - Following Zijin Mining, Oulutong had 59 transactions with a total trading value of 334 million yuan [1]. - A total of 49 stocks had trading values exceeding 10 million yuan, reflecting significant investor interest [1]. Group 2: Notable Stocks - Zijin Mining (stock code: 601899) had a closing price of 25.93 yuan, with a slight increase of 0.43% [1]. - Oulutong (stock code: 300870) closed at 220.58 yuan, showing a rise of 1.89%, but had a trading price of 182.00 yuan, reflecting a discount of 17.49% [1]. - Liyade (stock code: 300296) experienced a 3.54% increase, closing at 7.32 yuan, with a trading price of 7.07 yuan, indicating a discount of 3.42% [1].

据天眼查APP显示，东鹏饮料(集团)股份有限公司成立于1994年06月30日。注册资本52001.3万人民币。 （数据宝） 9月24日东鹏饮料大宗交易一览 | 成交量 | 成交金额 | 成交价 | 相对当日收盘 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | （万 | （万元） | 格 | 折溢价（%） | 买方营业部 | 卖方营业部 | | 股） | | （元） | | | | | 60.12 | 15387.71 | 255.95 | -11.35 | 招商证券股份有限公司北 | 招商证券股份有限公司北 | | | | | | 京建国路证券营业部 | 京建国路证券营业部 | 注：本文系新闻报道，不构成投资建议，股市有风险，投资需谨慎。 （文章来源：证券时报网） 东鹏饮料9月24日大宗交易平台出现一笔成交，成交量60.12万股，成交金额1.54亿元，大宗交易成交价 为255.95元，相对今日收盘价折价11.35%。该笔交易的买方营业部为招商证券股份有限公司北京建国路 证券营业部，卖方营业部为招商证券股份有限公司北京建国路证券营业部。 进一步统计，近3个月内该股累计 ...