Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to multiple companies in the consumer staples sector, including Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, and others, indicating a positive outlook for these stocks [1]. Core Insights - There is an intensified divergence among mid-to-high-end baijiu products, with no discount contraction observed in food and beverage categories [1]. - The report highlights that the wholesale prices of various baijiu brands have shown stability or slight changes, with some brands experiencing price increases while others remain flat or decrease [3][4][35]. - Discounts on representative products in condiments, liquid milk, and soft drinks have widened compared to the end of December, indicating a shift in pricing strategies [19][32]. Summary by Relevant Sections Baijiu Pricing - Guizhou Moutai's wholesale prices for Feitian (case and single bottle) and Moutai 1935 are reported at 1600, 1580, and 630 yuan respectively, with changes of 0, -10, and -10 yuan compared to last month [35]. - Wuliangye's eighth-generation price is 830 yuan, reflecting a +10 yuan increase from the previous month [35]. - Luzhou Laojiao's Guojiao 1573 remains at 850 yuan, unchanged from last month [35]. Discount Trends - The average discount rate for condiments decreased from 87.1% to 85.0%, while liquid milk discounts fell from 62.8% to 61.4% [19][22]. - In contrast, discounts for beer, infant formula, and convenience foods remained stable, with beer discounts slightly increasing from 80.3% to 80.7% [20][22][32]. Company Ratings - The report lists several companies with an "Outperform" rating, including: - Guizhou Moutai - Wuliangye - Luzhou Laojiao - Qingdao Beer - China Feihe - Others [1].

Group 1 - The report indicates that the A-share market is experiencing a typical spring rally characterized by initial strength followed by stabilization and structural differentiation, with major indices recording positive returns as of January 28, 2026 [6] - The average daily trading volume in January reached 3.04 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.16 trillion yuan month-on-month, indicating a significant influx of new capital and a loose liquidity environment driving the index upward [2] - Regulatory measures, including raising the minimum margin requirement from 80% to 100%, have led to fluctuations in market sentiment and a deceleration in the index's upward momentum [3] Group 2 - The report highlights that technology assets are experiencing a rotation between thematic and cyclical investments, with thematic investments (e.g., commercial aerospace, AI applications) initially favored but cooling off due to increased margin requirements [4] - In the cyclical sector, non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, and oil & petrochemicals have shown strong performance driven by three factors: demand from high-end manufacturing, proactive supply-side adjustments, and external geopolitical risks [4] - The report anticipates a structural market characterized by a focus on "resources + technology + overseas expansion," with low-risk preference assets potentially outperforming in certain phases [5] Group 3 - The investment strategy emphasizes focusing on "external demand cyclical + AI industry chain," highlighting the potential for global manufacturing recovery to support resource prices and opportunities for Chinese manufacturing to expand overseas [5] - The AI industry remains a clear investment theme, with a shift from thematic to performance-driven investments, particularly in areas with supply shortages such as power supply and semiconductor sectors [5] - The report recommends a selection of stocks across various sectors, including Invesco's Nonferrous ETF, Dongpeng Beverage, and Huazhong Precision, among others, reflecting a diversified investment approach [10]

Core Viewpoint - Dongpeng Beverage is set to launch its global offering on January 26, with a pricing date of January 30 and a listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on February 3. The maximum issue price is set at HKD 248 per share, with an expected fundraising scale of approximately HKD 101-117 billion. The pricing reflects a discount of 15.5% compared to the A-share closing price, which raises questions about the valuation's rationality given the company's strong cash reserves and the necessity of financing [1][14]. Pricing and Valuation - The maximum issue price of Dongpeng Beverage is 15.5% lower than the A-share closing price of RMB 262.50 per share, which is relatively low compared to similar projects and consumer stocks that typically see discounts of 20%-40% [2][15]. - The pricing strategy does not set a lower limit, allowing flexibility for adjustments based on market feedback, which could help align with current market conditions [3][16]. - The company's valuation is under scrutiny, as the maximum issue price corresponds to a P/E ratio that exceeds the average for the Hong Kong beverage industry, raising concerns about whether the high growth can justify such a premium [12][24]. Financial Performance - Dongpeng Beverage has shown impressive revenue growth, with projected revenues of RMB 208-211 billion for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 31.1%-33.3%. The net profit is expected to reach RMB 43.4-45.9 billion, with a growth rate of 30.5%-38.0% [8][20]. - The company has maintained a strong dividend policy, with a total of RMB 66 billion in dividends distributed from 2021 to 2025, and a payout ratio consistently above 50% [8][21]. Institutional Investment - The IPO has attracted a prestigious cornerstone investor lineup, including 15 institutions that collectively invested USD 640 million, representing 49.2% of the offering. Notable participants include Qatar Investment Authority and Temasek, marking significant firsts for these investors in the A to H share IPO space [5][18]. - The cornerstone investment reflects confidence in Dongpeng Beverage's growth trajectory and dividend returns, which have been appealing to institutional investors [6][18]. Market Concerns - Despite strong financial performance, the necessity of the IPO has raised questions, particularly given the company's substantial cash reserves of RMB 57.2 billion and other financial assets totaling RMB 94.5 billion [10][22]. - The company's history of significant shareholder reductions and the large dividends flowing to the founding family have also sparked discussions about the motivations behind the IPO [10][22][23].

封面新闻记者 姚瑞鹏 作为"能量饮料第一股"，东鹏饮料在2021年登陆A股实现资本市场突破后，于2026年1月26日正式启动港股招股，拟募资逾100亿港元推进A+H两地上市布 局。此次港股上市并非简单的资本扩容，更是其全球化战略的关键节点，为"出海元年"后的国际化拓展注入强劲动能。 目前东鹏饮料产品已出口超30个国家和地区，印尼、越南等海外子公司顺利运营，但面对垄断全球功能饮料市场多年的红牛，这位中国本土龙头的海外征 程注定充满挑战。东鹏饮料为何执意推进A+H上市？其出海布局已具备哪些基础？真正走向国际市场的东鹏特饮，能否与红牛一较高下？ 不止资本扩容 更是全球化的战略跳板 东鹏饮料在A股上市仅五年便再度冲击港股，核心并非单纯追求融资规模，而是瞄准港股的国际资本属性，为全球化战略铺路，同时弥补自身发展短板。 对于已在A股实现上市融资的东鹏而言，港股上市的价值远超资金补充，是其链接国际市场、突破发展瓶颈的关键一步。 招股书显示，东鹏饮料此次港股IPO拟发行4088.99万股H股，招股价不高于248港元，预计募资总额达101.4亿港元，其中部分资金将直接投向海外市场拓 展。相较于A股，港股作为国际金融中心，融资渠 ...

| 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 603156 | 乔元饮品 | 30.76 | -1.94% | 9.78万 | 3.03亿 | | 600189 | 泉阳泉 | 8.37 | -0.83% | 24.22万 | 2.02亿 | | 600429 | 三元股份 | 5.41 | -0.73% | 21.15万 | 1.14亿 | | 002946 | 新乳业 | 18.56 | 0.38% | 5.61万 | 1.03亿 | | 605337 | 李子园 | 13.62 | 0.44% | 26.98万 | 3.68亿 | | 002570 | 贝因美 | 6.19 | 0.49% | 26.69万 | 1.64亿 | | 002732 | 范博乳业 | 17.35 | 0.58% | 2.41万 | 4178.02万 | | 605300 | 佳木食品 | 11.95 | 0.76% | 3.12万 | 3710.84万 | | 002329 | 皇氏集团 | 3.81 | 0 ...

Core Insights - Dongpeng Beverage is officially entering the countdown phase for its Hong Kong stock listing, marking a significant milestone in its "A+H" layout strategy, showcasing its transformation from a near-bankrupt small factory to a market giant with a valuation exceeding 100 billion yuan [1][6] Company Background - The founder, Lin Muqin, has dedicated nearly 40 years to the beverage industry, leading the company through various market challenges and establishing a resilient national brand [1][6] - Lin Muqin's journey began at the age of 20 in Shenzhen, where he gained extensive experience across various departments in the beverage sector, laying a solid foundation for his entrepreneurial path [3][4] Key Developments - In 1997, Lin joined Dongpeng Beverage as Vice General Manager, where he faced significant challenges due to outdated equipment and a limited product range [3] - The launch of Dongpeng Special Drink in 1997 marked a pivotal moment, driven by extensive research and development of functional beverage ingredients [3][4] Market Strategy - Initially, Dongpeng faced fierce competition from foreign brands like Red Bull, which dominated the market. Lin identified a gap in the market for energy drinks targeted at price-sensitive consumers [4] - The introduction of bottled Dongpeng Special Drink in 2009, featuring innovative packaging and a competitive price point, allowed the brand to quickly establish a foothold in the market [4][6] Digital Innovation - In 2015, the company launched a "one code for one product" marketing system, enhancing direct communication with consumers and later upgraded to a comprehensive data management system in 2019 [6] - These digital initiatives contributed to a significant increase in market share, with Dongpeng's share rising from 15% in 2017 to 32% in 2020 [6] Financial Performance - Dongpeng Beverage successfully listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in May 2021, becoming the first publicly traded functional beverage company in China, with a market valuation surpassing 100 billion yuan [6] - Projections for 2025 indicate expected revenue between 20.76 billion and 21.12 billion yuan, with net profits anticipated between 4.34 billion and 4.59 billion yuan, reflecting over 30% growth year-on-year [6] Future Outlook - The company is expanding its product line with the introduction of new categories, including electrolyte drinks and sugar-free options, to adapt to health trends [6] - Dongpeng aims to enhance its global presence, with plans to export to over 30 countries and establish production capabilities in Indonesia and Vietnam [6]

Core Insights - The beverage and dairy sector experienced a rise of 0.51% on January 28, with Liziyuan leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4151.24, up 0.27%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14342.9, up 0.09% [1] Sector Performance - Liziyuan (605337) closed at 13.56, up 5.85% with a trading volume of 388,600 shares [1] - Sanyuan (600429) closed at 5.45, up 4.21% with a trading volume of 482,000 shares [1] - Dongpeng Beverage (605499) closed at 254.51, up 3.54% with a trading volume of 47,700 shares [1] - Other notable performers include Weiwe (600300) up 1.65% and Qishi Dairy (920786) up 1.18% [1] Capital Flow - The beverage and dairy sector saw a net inflow of 1.51 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 12.8 million yuan [2] - However, there was a net outflow of 129 million yuan from speculative funds [2] Individual Stock Capital Flow - Liziyuan had a net inflow of 62.55 million yuan from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 17.26 million yuan from speculative funds [3] - Yili (600887) saw a net inflow of 33.78 million yuan from institutional investors, but a significant net outflow of 71.72 million yuan from speculative funds [3] - Sanyuan (600429) had a net inflow of 22.36 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 27.12 million yuan [3]

1 月 26 日，东鹏饮料发布公告称，公司本次发行的 H 股预计于 2026 年 2 月 3 日在香港联交所挂牌并开始上市交易。这意味着，东鹏饮料将正式完 成"A+H"双资本布局，成为国内首家登录A+H两市的功能饮料企业。 据相关公告，东鹏本次全球发售H股最大发行股数为4702.33万股，发行价格最高不超过每股248港元。包括Huang River Investment、摩根大通资管等在内 的多家知名机构已签订基石投资协议，总认购金额约6.4亿美元。 招股书显示，东鹏饮料是中国功能饮料龙头企业，2021年起连续四年位居中国功能饮料销量市场第一，2024年以23.0%的零售份额位列行业第二。 根据公告，公司2023年度、2024年度、2025年前三季度截至9月30日止，净利润分别为20.40亿元、33.27亿元、37.61亿元，同比变动幅度为41.60%、 63.09%、38.91%。 来源：企业公告 据悉，此次东鹏IPO所募资金将主要用于产能布局与供应链升级、品牌建设、海外市场拓展、全国化渠道运营、数字化建设、产品品类拓展及营运资金等 方面。 ...

上市企业：养元饮品（603156）,承德露露（000848）,东鹏饮料（605499）,均瑶健康（605388） 2020-2025年中国饮料产量统计图 数据来源：国家统计局，智研咨询整理 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2026-2032年中国饮料行业市场运营格局及未来前景分析报告》 根据国家统计局数据显示：2025年12月中国饮料产量为1342万吨，同比增长1.1%；2025年中国饮料累 计产量为17925.3万吨，累计增长3%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Dongpeng Beverage is set to launch its H-share IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to raise approximately HKD 10.1 billion, marking it as a significant player in the beverage industry and the third "A+H" listed company this year [1][2][3]. IPO Details - The company plans to issue 40,889,900 H-shares, with a maximum offering price of HKD 248 per share, which could place it among the top fundraising IPOs in the consumer sector in recent years [2][3][5]. - The IPO is scheduled to begin trading on February 3, 2026, under the stock code 09980 [1][3]. Company Performance - Dongpeng Beverage is recognized as the leading functional beverage company in China, with a projected revenue of RMB 20.76 billion to RMB 21.12 billion for 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 31.07% to 33.34% compared to the previous year [3][18]. - The company has maintained a leading position in the functional beverage market, with a market share increase from 15.0% in 2021 to an expected 26.3% by 2024 [4][19]. Investor Confidence - The IPO has attracted significant interest from cornerstone investors, including Qatar Investment Authority, Temasek, and BlackRock, with total subscriptions amounting to USD 640 million, representing 49.2% of the total fundraising [6][8][24]. - The pricing strategy reflects a lower than average discount compared to other A-H shares in the consumer sector, indicating a favorable valuation for potential investors [5][20]. Growth Strategy - Dongpeng Beverage aims to expand its international presence, particularly in Southeast Asia, where the energy drink market is projected to reach USD 4.2 billion in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 6.2% [13][30]. - Approximately 8% of the net proceeds from the IPO will be allocated to establishing supply chain infrastructure in overseas markets, while 12% will focus on expanding international business and exploring investment opportunities [30][29]. Market Challenges - Despite its growth, Dongpeng Beverage faces challenges, including a high dependency on its flagship product, Dongpeng Special Drink, which contributes 85% of its revenue [9][26]. - The company’s performance in emerging beverage categories like coffee and tea remains limited, raising questions about the sustainability of its growth trajectory [9][12].