【导读】中信、申万等头部券商最新发声：房地产市场现积极信号！ 申万宏源：房企最困难时期或将逐渐过去 申万宏源发布研报表示，过去4年房地产行业量价持续下行，导致目前部分房企预告业绩下降或亏损。 不过我们认为，房企最困难时期或将逐渐过去。 研报解释，一方面，我们认为我国房地产基本面底部正逐步临近，在行业深度调整4年多后，我国新开 工自2021年高点以来已下降75%，已显著超过美国、日本和德国降幅50%—70%，我国二手房房价自 2021年高点以来已下降40%，也已显著超过1970年至今42国平均跌幅34%；另一方面，申万宏源认为主 流房企存货减值压力逐步得到释放2019-2025H1主流房企累计资产及信用减值损失占比存货均值达8%， 其中部分房企减值占比更高。 中央强调着力稳定房地产，《求是》发文建议政策一次性给足，政策基调更趋积极。2025年12月，中央 经济工作会议指出："积极稳妥化解重点领域风险，着力稳定房地产市场"。此外，2026年1月2日，《求 是》明确房地产金融属性、强调居民资产负债表、重申房地产经济重要地位、并建议政策一次性给足， 对房地产行业政策表态更趋积极，政策进一步重视居民端和需求端发力。1月 ...

Global Capital Market Overview - The recent nomination of Kevin Warsh as the Federal Reserve Chairman has created volatility in the markets, with concerns about his hawkish stance affecting monetary policy expectations [1][2][9] - Economic resilience and persistent inflation have led to a challenging monetary policy environment, with the market pricing in two rate cuts by the Fed in 2026 [1][7] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield reached 4.26%, and the dollar index is currently at 97.1, indicating a marginal increase in yields and tightening liquidity expectations [1][9] Equity Market Performance - In the equity markets, South Korea and Argentina saw significant gains, while the A-share indices, including the Hang Seng Index and the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, also experienced increases [1][9] - Conversely, the ChiNext Index, STAR Market 50, and the Northern Stock Exchange 50 saw declines, with Vietnam and Japan's markets experiencing larger drops [1][9] Commodity Market Insights - Gold prices fell by 2.01% this week, while geopolitical risks led to a 7.32% increase in oil prices [1][9] - The current market for precious metals is in a phase of volatility reduction, with indicators suggesting that gold and silver prices may stabilize after recent declines [3][11] Global Fund Flows - Recent data indicates a trend of foreign capital inflows and domestic capital outflows from the Chinese stock market, with foreign active funds seeing an inflow of $8.83 billion and passive funds $17.41 billion [4][9] - In total, foreign capital inflows amounted to $26.23 billion, while domestic capital outflows reached $600.12 billion [4][9] Valuation Metrics - As of January 30, 2026, the valuation of the Shanghai Composite Index is below that of the KOSPI 200 and the S&P 500, with a PE ratio percentile of 92.9% over the past decade [5][10] - The risk-adjusted return metrics for the Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 have improved, indicating better relative value in the Chinese stock market compared to global peers [6][10] Economic Data and Inflation Outlook - Recent U.S. economic data shows a marginal increase in the Producer Price Index (PPI) for December, while inflationary pressures remain stable in China [7][10] - The market anticipates two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, with oil prices potentially impacting inflation significantly if they rise to $80 per barrel in the second half of 2026 [17][10]

21世纪经济报道记者 杨坪 据中信证券统计，2026年1月29日- 30日，8单总计估值321亿元商业不动产REITs发行挂网，预计涉及募集规模总计315亿元，涉及资本化率在 4.3%-7.2%区间内，涉及运营净收益（NOI）总计16.5亿元（2025年数据，部分项目为年化值）。 连日来，2025年业绩预告进入集中披露期。万科A、招商蛇口等多家地产公司也预告了2025年的整体经营表现。 中信证券认为，在商业不动产REITs推出之后，REITs市场发行审批效率明显提升，优质资产证券化速度明显加快。房地产企业资产负债表得 到夯实，债务负担有所减轻，广大投资者也得以配置优质低波权益资产，分享中国经济增长红利。 本报记者注意到，多家券商机构在点评房地产业绩预告时指出，尽管2025年房企利润表现仍承压，但市场已出现积极信号，预计2026年房地产 市场有望逐步止跌回稳。 总结来看，中信证券指出，我国居民部门的现金流量表保持良好，净流入健康向上，这也是未来企业经营性现金流净流入可能持续修复的底 气。政策力推住宅价格止跌，加上商业地产资产增值，相信房地产板块的主体信用风险已经开始退潮。当行业的主要融资性现金流入，从以信 用债 ...

本报记者 田鹏 近日，申万宏源发布多份房地产及物管行业研究报告，明确指出我国房地产行业历经深度调整后，基本面底部正逐步临 近，叠加政策面积极信号持续释放、行业格局优化及估值处于历史低位，房地产及物管板块已具备显著投资吸引力，目前板块 业绩仍然承压，但最困难时期或将逐渐过去，维持"看好"评级，优质房企、商业地产等细分领域将率先受益。 政策端 多维度利好持续积累 结构弹性不断凸显 从行业数据来看，尽管短期仍有压力，但筑底信号已逐步显现。销售端，2025年1月份至12月份全国商品房销售面积同比 下降8.7%、销售额同比下降12.6%，但12月份单月销售面积、销售额同比降幅较前期分别收窄1.7pct、1.5pct，二手房市场表现 更具韧性——2026年1月份重点城市二手房成交同比增长9.3%，较2025年12月份提升36pct，显示存量房市场需求修复节奏快于 新房。 库存方面，截至2026年1月末，15个重点城市住宅可售面积环比基本持平，3个月移动平均去化月数虽有所上升，但部分核 心城市如杭州2026年首宗宅地以19.8%溢价率成交，反映优质地块仍具备吸引力。 投资端虽短期偏弱，但长期修复基础正在夯实。2025年1月 ...

申万宏源研报称，北京时间1月30日，特朗普提名沃什为下届美联储主席，金融市场大幅波动。但是， 就降息预期来说，沃什提名事件、1月美联储FOMC例会对其冲击并不大，市场仍预期2026年美联储降 息2次。 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses significant adjustments in gold and silver prices, with COMEX gold down 1.1% to $4,879.6 per ounce and COMEX silver down 17.6% to $84.8 per ounce [2][49][56] - The S&P 500 index saw a slight increase of 0.3%, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 2 basis points to 4.26% [2][21] - The article highlights a temporary agreement reached by U.S. bipartisan leaders to avoid a prolonged government shutdown, with funding for the Department of Homeland Security separated from the comprehensive bill [2][67] Group 2 - The article notes that the U.S. December PPI increased by 3.0%, exceeding market expectations of 2.8%, driven by strong service sector performance [95] - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending January 24 were reported at 209,000, higher than the expected 205,000 [98] - The article mentions that the U.S. Treasury General Account (TGA) balance rose to $952.7 billion as of January 28, indicating an increase from the end of December [73] Group 3 - The article reports that the U.S. government recorded a cumulative fiscal surplus of $73.8 billion as of January 27, 2026, compared to a deficit of $27.8 billion in the same period last year [79] - The article discusses the nomination of Kevin Warsh by Trump as the next Federal Reserve Chair, which has caused significant market fluctuations [91][109] - The article indicates that the market anticipates two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, despite the recent nomination of Warsh [91][109]

展望2026年，赵伟认为，服务消费、"新"新基建与绿色投资将是影响全年经济走向的三大关键。服务消 费方面，伴随服务业开放政策的不断推进，被抑制的服务类需求有望得到有效释放。"新"新基建方面， 重点在于通过数字化、智能化手段，系统性降低社会物流成本，并通过强化都市圈交通枢纽功能、发展 多式联运，提升经济运行效率。绿色投资方面，围绕"双碳"目标，持续推进产业绿色化改造。 03:45 2026年是"十五五"开局之年，中国经济如何在复杂环境中稳步前行？申万宏源首席经济学家赵伟在接受 记者专访时表示，理解今年经济需把握"夯实基础、全面发力"八个字。"夯实基础"指的是对"十四五"以 来所构建的产业体系、市场基础和制度框架的巩固与深化。而"全面发力"意味着在发展与改革相关领 域，政策推进与落实的速度将会加快。 策划：黄蕾 统筹：徐蔚 作者：刘禹希 吴诗婷 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown active performance at the beginning of 2026, leading to a significant increase in the capital replenishment needs of securities firms, as evidenced by the recent approvals for debt financing tools [1] Group 1: Debt Financing Approvals - In January 2026, nine securities firms, including Guolian Minsheng and Shenwan Hongyuan, received regulatory approval for bond issuance, totaling 265 billion yuan [1][2] - Major firms like Shenwan Hongyuan and Guangfa Securities have received approvals for bond issuances exceeding 100 billion yuan, with Shenwan Hongyuan approved for up to 60 billion yuan and Guangfa Securities for up to 70 billion yuan [1][2] Group 2: Capital Utilization - The primary use of the funds raised through bond issuance is to repay maturing bonds, with a portion allocated for operational capital [3] - For instance, Guolian Minsheng plans to use 113 billion yuan for repaying maturing bonds and 67 billion yuan for operational capital [3] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The overall margin balance in the A-share market remains high, with a 7.1% increase from the beginning of the year, indicating a strong demand for leveraged funds [3] - The active market conditions and rising demand for margin trading have led to an urgent need for capital among securities firms [4] Group 4: Industry Trends - The surge in bond financing reflects a growing capital replenishment demand driven by market activity and the expansion of margin trading [4] - Analysts suggest that the current low-interest-rate environment and regulatory support for innovative financing tools have created favorable conditions for securities firms to raise capital [4][5] - The trend indicates a concentration of financing among top-tier firms, which are better positioned to leverage low-cost funds for expanding their capital-intensive business operations [5]

Core Viewpoint - The performance of listed securities firms in 2025 is expected to be strong, driven by active capital markets and robust growth in brokerage and proprietary trading businesses [1][2]. Group 1: Performance of Major Securities Firms - 21 listed securities firms have disclosed their 2025 performance forecasts, showing overall positive growth in net profits [2]. - CITIC Securities is projected to achieve over 30 billion yuan in net profit, with a revenue of 74.83 billion yuan, marking a 28.75% year-on-year increase [2]. - Guotai Junan expects a net profit between 27.53 billion yuan and 28.01 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 111% to 115% [2]. - Other notable firms include招商证券 with a net profit of 12.3 billion yuan (up 18.43%), and申万宏源 with a projected net profit of 9.1 billion to 10.1 billion yuan (up 74.64% to 93.83%) [2]. Group 2: Performance of Small and Medium-sized Securities Firms - Smaller firms like国联民生 anticipate a net profit of 2.008 billion yuan, representing a significant year-on-year growth of approximately 406% [3]. -天风证券 expects to turn a profit with a net profit forecast of 12.5 million to 18.5 million yuan [3]. - Other small firms such as长江证券 and中原证券 are also expected to see net profit increases exceeding 100% and 50%, respectively [3]. Group 3: Drivers of Growth - The growth in performance is attributed to the active capital market, with wealth management, proprietary trading, and asset management businesses benefiting significantly [3]. - Guotai Haitong noted a substantial increase in income from wealth management and institutional trading due to the rising activity in the domestic capital market [3]. - CITIC Securities reported rapid growth across brokerage, investment banking, and proprietary trading revenues [3]. Group 4: Investment Value of the Sector - The non-bank financial sector has seen a decline of 1.59% as of January 30, but analysts believe that the valuation of securities firms is at a historically low level, enhancing their investment appeal [4]. - The sector is entering a golden window for valuation and performance recovery, driven by favorable policies and an improving market environment [5]. - Analysts suggest focusing on three investment themes: strong comprehensive capabilities of leading firms, firms with significant performance elasticity, and those with strong international business competitiveness [5].

Core Insights - The evaluation results for the 2025 annual performance quality of securities companies were released by the Beijing Stock Exchange and the National Equities Exchange and Quotations, assessing 115 firms on their professional capabilities, compliance levels, and business operations [1] Group 1: Overall Industry Performance - The majority of securities companies scored above the baseline score of 100, indicating a positive accumulation in industry performance quality [1] - Guotai Junan ranked first with a total score of 145.04, followed by Huatai Securities (143.41), China Merchants Securities (140.49), Shenwan Hongyuan Securities (136.43), and CITIC Securities (135.49), showcasing strong performance in professional quality [1] Group 2: Distribution of Scores - The score distribution shows a "large middle, small ends" pattern, with a few top-tier firms leading the industry while the majority fall into the second and third tiers, indicating overall compliance and notable business highlights [1] - Some firms scored in the fourth tier due to low professional scores or high compliance deductions, suggesting a need for improvement in specific business areas or risk management capabilities [1] Group 3: Business Structure and Specialization - The evaluation system detailed scores for various sub-items within the Beijing Stock Exchange and National Equities Exchange, revealing differences in business structures among firms [2] - Certain firms, like Huatai Securities and Dongfang Securities, achieved high scores through deep engagement in Beijing Stock Exchange business, particularly in sponsorship and mergers and acquisitions [2] - Other firms, such as Kaiyuan Securities and Shenwan Hongyuan, excelled in the National Equities Exchange business, especially in recommending listings and ongoing supervision, demonstrating their service capabilities for new three-board enterprises [2] Group 4: Contribution of Brokerage and Research - Brokerage and research services, which connect investors with the market, contributed significantly to the professional quality scores of firms like Galaxy Securities and Guotai Junan [2]