Group 1 - The agricultural chemical sector experienced a decline of 0.63% on January 12, with Hebang Biotechnology leading the losses [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4165.29, up 1.09%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14366.91, up 1.75% [1] - Notable gainers in the agricultural chemical sector included Lianhua Technology, which rose by 7.73% to a closing price of 17.69, and Li'er Chemical, which increased by 3.45% to 14.40 [1] Group 2 - Major stocks in the agricultural chemical sector saw significant outflows, with a net outflow of 8.88 billion yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 5.93 billion yuan [2] - Hebang Biotechnology reported a decline of 5.15%, closing at 2.21, with a trading volume of 4.54 million shares and a transaction value of 10.09 billion yuan [2] - The stock performance of Jiangshan Co. and Dongfang Iron Tower also showed declines of 5.11% and 5.01%, respectively [2] Group 3 - Salt Lake Co. had a net inflow of 73.60 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 101 million yuan [3] - Chuanjin Nuo saw a net inflow of 63.61 million yuan from institutional investors, but a significant outflow of 81.21 million yuan from retail investors [3] - Li'er Chemical had a net inflow of 51.84 million yuan from institutional investors, with retail investors experiencing a net outflow of 36.75 million yuan [3]

Macroeconomic Insights - December CPI year-on-year growth expanded, primarily due to a low base and rising food prices[8] - PPI year-on-year decline narrowed, influenced by rising non-ferrous metal prices and the ongoing effects of "anti-involution" policies[8] - The price environment may continue to improve in 2026, with PPI supported by deepening "anti-involution" policies and tightening competition for key minerals[8] Market Trends - In December, the top 100 real estate companies achieved a total sales amount of CNY 341.5 billion, a month-on-month increase of 39.7%[33] - For the full year 2025, the cumulative sales amount for the top 100 real estate companies was CNY 3.36 trillion, a year-on-year decrease of 19.8%[33] - The new stock market saw 18 new listings in December, raising over CNY 30 billion, with average first-day gains of 214% for the main board and 296% for the dual innovation board[18] Industry Performance - The credit bond issuance volume increased seasonally, with a total of 332 bonds issued, amounting to CNY 312.27 billion, a week-on-week increase of 306%[22] - The domestic electrolytic aluminum price reached CNY 23,300 per ton, the highest since March 2022, with the aluminum-to-copper price ratio hitting a 20-year high[42] - The solid-state battery industry is entering a new phase of industrialization, with expectations for mass production by 2026-2027[47]

| 股票代码 | 股票简称 | 涨跌幅 | 权重 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600309 | 万华化学 | -1.42% | 10.47% | | 601857 | 中国石油 | -0.20% | 7.63% | | 000792 | 盐湖股份 | 2.46% | 6.44% | | 600028 | 中国石化 | -3.73% | 6.44% | | 600938 | 甲国海海 | -0.56% | 5.22% | | 600160 | 巨化股份 | -3.91% | 4.51% | | 000408 | 藏格矿业 | -1.41% | 3.82% | | 600143 | 金发科技 | 3.25% | 3.69% | | 600426 | 华鲁恒升 | -1.53% | 3.31% | | 600989 | 宝幸能源 | -1.77% | 3.27% | 截至1月9日，石化ETF近2年净值上涨49.64%。从收益能力看，截至2026年1月9日，石化ETF自成立以来，最高单月回报为15.86%，最长连涨月数为8个月， 最长连涨涨幅为41.60%，上涨月份平均收益率为5.25 ...

点击小程序查看报告原文 1月进入年报业绩预报和快报的披露高峰期。 12月中下旬以来A股市场单边上行，近期再创十年新高，交投情绪明显改善。随着A股上市公司年报业绩预 报在1月集中披露，我们认为业绩出现改善或超预期的行业和个股可能成为投资者关注的主线。截至1月10日，A股已披露年报预告的公司数量约占1.8%， 我们结合中金行业分析员自下而上预测，梳理年报业绩预览供投资者参考： 2025年全年A股盈利同比有望结束此前四年的增速连降，转为正增长。 从2025年四季度宏观数据来看，内需方面，四季度社零增速延续放缓，1-11月社零 总额同比+4.0%（vs.前三季度4.5%），以旧换新政策影响退坡；房地产量价走弱，房企投资仍偏谨慎；物价层面，4Q25物价水平边际改善，CPI同比由三 季度的-0.2%转正至0.6%，PPI同比降幅收窄至-2.1%；外需方面，10-11月人民币计价的出口金额同比分别为-0.8%/5.7%，2024年高基数为主要扰动，需求 侧整体平稳。考虑到2024年四季度非金融盈利因减值造成的低基数，我们预计单四季度盈利同比有望出现改善。2025年前三季度全部A股/金融/非金融盈 利增速分别为5.4%/9. ...

Core Viewpoint - Salt Lake Co., Ltd. (000792.SZ) has seen a significant upward revision in its 2026 profit expectations, driven by improved industry conditions in potassium and lithium, as well as strong new capacity and asset injection plans [1][6]. Group 1: Profit Forecasts - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of between 8.29 billion to 8.89 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 77.78% to 90.65%, exceeding previous market expectations [1]. - Prior to the earnings forecast, sell-side analysts had projected 2026 profit expectations in the range of 6.2 billion to 8.2 billion yuan, which were subsequently raised to around 10 billion yuan, with some firms like Everbright Securities and Shenwan Hongyuan estimating around 12 billion yuan [1][6]. - The recent surge in profit expectations is attributed to the anticipated increase in potassium and lithium industry conditions, alongside the company's strong new capacity and asset injection plans [1]. Group 2: Price Trends - The price of potassium chloride has increased compared to the same period last year, while lithium carbonate prices have shown volatility but are gradually recovering in the second half of the year, contributing to overall revenue growth [2]. - In 2025, the ex-factory price of potassium chloride rose from 2,550 yuan/ton to 3,100 yuan/ton, with an annual average price of 2,938.1 yuan/ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of only 16.68% [2]. - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate decreased from 90,500 yuan/ton to around 75,500 yuan/ton, marking a decline of 16.57% year-on-year [2]. Group 3: Production and Sales - For 2025, the company anticipates a potassium chloride production of approximately 4.9 million tons and sales of about 3.8143 million tons, alongside lithium carbonate production of around 46,500 tons and sales of about 45,600 tons [3]. - Compared to 2024, potassium chloride sales decreased by 18.37%, while lithium carbonate sales increased by 9.6%, indicating stable overall performance in the company's main business [4]. Group 4: Capacity Expansion - The company’s lithium salt production capacity is expected to increase significantly, with rights-based capacity projected to rise from 20,000 tons (excluding the newly launched 40,000 tons integrated project) to approximately 69,000 tons, representing a growth rate of 245% [9]. - The company plans to acquire a 51% stake in Minmetals Salt Lake for 4.605 billion yuan, which will add 300,000 tons/year of potassium chloride capacity and 18,000 tons of lithium salt capacity to its consolidated financial statements [8]. Group 5: Market Dynamics - The overall revenue and profit structure of the company have changed significantly since the peak of lithium prices in 2022, with the revenue and gross profit contributions from lithium carbonate products declining to 18.32% and 16% by the first half of 2025 [10]. - The average market price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has risen from 96,000 yuan/ton to 140,000 yuan/ton since late December 2025, indicating a potential recovery in the lithium market [10]. Group 6: Valuation and Market Sentiment - The company's stock price has increased by 71% in 2025, aligning with the profit growth forecast [12]. - As of January 9, 2026, the company's stock price was 31.28 yuan, with an estimated earnings per share of approximately 1.62 yuan for 2025, corresponding to a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.3 times [14]. - The potential profit growth for 2026 could increase earnings per share to around 2.02 yuan, reducing the price-to-earnings ratio to approximately 15.5 times [14].

作者丨董鹏 编辑丨朱益民 近日，盐湖股份（000792.SZ）的2026年盈利预期获得密集上调。 公司近期披露的业绩预告显示，预计2025年归母净利润为82.9亿元至88.9亿元，同比增长77.78%至 90.65%，超出此前市场预期。 业绩预告发布前，卖方对其2026年盈利预期区间为62—82亿元；业绩预告发布后，卖方盈利预期值则普 遍上调至100亿元，光大证券、申万宏源更是给出了120亿元左右的盈利预期。 这背后，是潜在的钾、锂行业景气度提升，以及公司本身确定性较强的新增产能投放、资产注入计划。 仅以公司锂盐业务为例，公司去年9月末投产的4万吨盐湖提锂项目有望大规模释放，并且还有五矿盐湖 后续并表所带来的0.8万吨权益产能，公司权益产能有望从2025年的2万吨（未包括4万吨自建项目）提 升至6.9万吨，权益产能增速明显大于名义产能增速。 此外，本周碳酸锂现货均价已经升至13.8万元/吨，远月期货合约则是一度逼近15万元/吨，接下来如若 锂价出现超预期式上涨，卖方给出的盈利预期可能会进一步上修。 盈利百亿一致预期 对于公司业绩增长，盐湖股份指出，"氯化钾产品价格较上年同期有所上升，碳酸锂产品价格虽波动较 大 ...

Core Viewpoint - Salt Lake Co., Ltd. (000792.SZ) has seen a significant upward revision in its 2026 profit expectations, with forecasts now ranging from 100 billion to 120 billion yuan, driven by improved market conditions in the potassium and lithium sectors, as well as strong new capacity and asset injection plans [1][8]. Group 1: Profit Forecasts - The company's recent earnings forecast indicates a projected net profit attributable to shareholders of 82.9 billion to 88.9 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 77.78% to 90.65%, exceeding previous market expectations [1]. - Prior to the earnings forecast, sell-side analysts estimated the 2026 profit range at 62 to 82 billion yuan, which has now been revised upward to around 100 billion yuan, with some institutions like Everbright Securities and Shenwan Hongyuan projecting approximately 120 billion yuan [1][8]. Group 2: Market Conditions and Price Trends - The price of potassium chloride has increased compared to the same period last year, while lithium carbonate prices have shown volatility but are gradually recovering in the second half of the year, contributing to overall growth in the company's performance [3]. - In 2025, the ex-factory price of potassium chloride (60% powder, Qinghai salt lake) rose from 2,550 yuan/ton to 3,100 yuan/ton, with an annual average price of 2,938.1 yuan/ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of only 16.68% [3]. - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate for the year decreased from 90,500 yuan/ton to around 75,500 yuan/ton, a decline of 16.57%, although prices have been rising significantly in the fourth quarter [5]. Group 3: Production and Capacity Expansion - The company’s lithium salt business is expected to see substantial capacity growth, with rights-based capacity projected to increase from 20,000 tons in 2025 to approximately 69,000 tons, a growth rate of 245%, significantly outpacing nominal capacity growth [10][12]. - The company’s production forecast for 2025 includes approximately 4.9 million tons of potassium chloride and 46,500 tons of lithium carbonate, with sales figures showing a decrease in potassium chloride sales by 18.37% and an increase in lithium carbonate sales by 9.6% compared to 2024 [5]. Group 4: Financial and Valuation Insights - As of January 9, 2026, the market capitalization of Salt Lake Co., Ltd. reached 165.5 billion yuan, with a stock price of 31.28 yuan, corresponding to an estimated earnings per share of approximately 1.62 yuan for 2025, resulting in a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.3 times [18][19]. - Considering the potential profit growth for 2026, the estimated earnings per share could rise to around 2.02 yuan, leading to a reduced price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 15.5 times [19].

Core Viewpoint - Salt Lake Co. (000792.SZ) has seen a significant upward revision in its 2026 profit expectations, with sell-side analysts raising their forecasts from a range of 62-82 billion yuan to around 100 billion yuan, and some even projecting approximately 120 billion yuan [1][12]. Group 1: Profit Forecasts - The company anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of 8.29 to 8.89 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 77.78% to 90.65%, exceeding previous market expectations [1]. - Following the earnings forecast release, sell-side analysts have adjusted their 2026 profit expectations, with some institutions like Everbright Securities and Shenwan Hongyuan projecting around 12 billion yuan [1][12]. Group 2: Industry Dynamics - The increase in profit expectations is attributed to the rising demand in the potassium and lithium sectors, alongside the company's strong new capacity deployment and asset injection plans [2]. - The average spot price of lithium carbonate has surged to 138,000 yuan per ton, with futures contracts nearing 150,000 yuan per ton, indicating potential for further upward revisions in profit forecasts if lithium prices continue to rise unexpectedly [2]. Group 3: Production and Sales Data - For 2025, the company expects to produce approximately 4.9 million tons of potassium chloride and 46,500 tons of lithium carbonate, with sales figures showing a decrease in potassium chloride sales by 18.37% and an increase in lithium carbonate sales by 9.6% compared to 2024 [8]. - The company's production capacity for lithium salts is projected to increase significantly, with equity capacity expected to rise from 20,000 tons to around 69,000 tons, reflecting a growth rate of 245% [15]. Group 4: Price Trends - The price of potassium chloride is expected to rise from 2,550 yuan per ton to 3,100 yuan per ton by the end of 2025, with an annual average price increase of only 16.68% [4]. - Despite fluctuations, the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate decreased from 90,500 yuan per ton to around 75,500 yuan per ton, marking a decline of 16.57% year-on-year [6]. Group 5: Financial Metrics and Valuation - The company's net profit for the fourth quarter is expected to show a significant increase, with a full-year net profit of at least 8.3 billion yuan, surpassing previous institutional expectations [9]. - As of January 9, 2026, the company's stock price was 31.28 yuan, with an estimated earnings per share of approximately 1.62 yuan for 2025, corresponding to a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.3 times [20].

石化ETF(159731)，场外联接(华夏中证石化产业ETF发起式联接A：017855；华夏中证石化产业ETF发起式联接C：017856)。 以上内容与数据，与有连云立场无关，不构成投资建议。据此操作，风险自担。 | 股票代码 | 股票简称 | 涨跌幅 | 权重 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600309 | 万华化学 | -0.94% | 10.47% | | 601857 | 中国石油 | -0.41% | 7.63% | | 000792 | 盐湖股份 | -1.05% | 6.44% | | 600028 | 中国石化 | 0.82% | 6.44% | | 600938 | 甲国海海 | 0.60% | 5.22% | | 600160 | 巨化股份 | -0.92% | 4.51% | | 000408 | 藏格矿业 | -0.95% | 3.82% | | 600143 | 金发科技 | 9.99% | 3.69% | | 600426 | 华鲁恒升 | 0.76% | 3.31% | | 600989 | 宝丰能源 | -1.78% | 3.27% | （以上所列 ...

Core Viewpoint - The lithium industry is experiencing a surge in resource acquisition, with companies like Salt Lake Co. and Shengxin Lithium Energy making significant acquisitions to secure lithium resources amid rising lithium prices and increasing demand [4][5][9]. Group 1: Recent Mergers and Acquisitions - Salt Lake Co. plans to acquire a 51% stake in Minmetals Salt Lake for 4.605 billion yuan, representing a premium of 352.42% [8][9]. - Shengxin Lithium Energy is acquiring the remaining 30% stake in Qicheng Mining for 2.08 billion yuan, achieving full control over key lithium resources [8][9]. - Other companies, including Ganfeng Lithium and Hualian Holdings, are also increasing their investments in lithium mining [7][10]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Price Trends - Lithium prices have rebounded significantly, with carbonate lithium prices doubling since Q3 of last year, driven by explosive demand growth [5][12]. - The demand for lithium is expected to continue rising, with projections indicating that global lithium demand could reach 2 million tons of lithium carbonate equivalent by 2026 [12][20]. - China's lithium salt production capacity is projected to exceed 1.2 million tons LCE in 2024, accounting for over 65% of global production [12]. Group 3: Strategic Resource Acquisition - Companies are acquiring resources to mitigate raw material cost volatility and ensure stable supply amid geopolitical uncertainties [12][13]. - The acquisition of high-quality resources is seen as essential for companies to maintain competitive advantages in the face of rising lithium prices [12][13]. - The value of mining rights is being restructured as lithium prices rise, with companies aiming to lock in resources at relatively low prices [12][16]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The lithium market is expected to maintain a tight supply-demand balance, with potential supply disruptions from geopolitical factors [20]. - The demand for lithium in energy storage is projected to grow significantly, with expectations that it will surpass demand from the electric vehicle sector by 2026 [20]. - The overall sentiment in the lithium market remains optimistic, with expectations of price stability and potential upward trends in the coming years [19][20].