Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry is experiencing a deep adjustment in 2024, characterized by declining production and sales, sluggish terminal movement, shrinking consumption scenarios, and insufficient consumer confidence, leading to price inversions for various products [1] Group 1: Industry Trends - The liquor industry is facing dual declines in production and sales, with a notable slowdown in revenue growth for liquor companies in 2024 [1] - The number of liquor companies experiencing revenue declines increased from 2 to 6 compared to the previous year, with brands like Jiu Gui Jiu and Shun Xin Agriculture facing significant downturns for two consecutive years [1] Group 2: Sales Expenses - The total sales expenses for 19 listed liquor companies reached 45.87 billion yuan in the previous year, marking an 11% year-on-year increase, which outpaced revenue growth [2] - The median sales expense ratio rose from 16.26% to 19.1%, indicating a growing burden on companies [2] - Notably, Wu Liang Ye had the highest sales expenses at 10.692 billion yuan, followed by Gu Qing Gong Jiu and Kweichow Moutai [2] Group 3: Management Expenses - The total management expenses for listed liquor companies amounted to 22.85 billion yuan, slightly up from 22.66 billion yuan the previous year, with a median management expense ratio of 7.27% [3] - Eleven companies reported an increase in management expenses, while eight companies saw a decline [3] - Companies like Shanxi Fen Jiu, Shui Jing Fang, and Tian You De Jiu experienced management expense growth exceeding 10% [3] Group 4: Expense Ratios - Jiu Gui Jiu had the highest sales expense ratio at 42.94%, followed by Jin Zhong Zi Jiu at 31.84% and Gu Qing Gong Jiu at 26.22% [4] - Kweichow Moutai had the lowest sales expense ratio at 3.24%, indicating efficient cost management [4] - The management expense ratios for Tian You De Jiu, Jiu Gui Jiu, and Jin Zhong Zi Jiu exceeded 10%, while companies like Wu Liang Ye and Kweichow Moutai maintained lower ratios [4]

有9家酒企归母净利润低于10亿元，4家净利润低于1亿元。去年只有金种子酒一家酒企亏损，亏损金额 从上年的0.22亿元扩大到2.58亿元。 出品：新浪财经上市公司研究院 作者：浪头饮食/ 郝显 2024年，白酒行业进入深度调整！ "行业产销双线下滑、终端动销整体放缓、消费场景萎缩、消费信心不足，诸多产品价格不同程度倒 挂，"茅台集团党委副书记、总经理王莉2024年中曾对白酒行业发展趋势作出过这样的判断。 在这种背景下，渠道库存问题凸显，头部酒企也频频通过停货稳定价格体系。白酒企业分化进一步加 剧，头部酒企仍能维持稳健增长，中小酒企则开始面对压力。 从上市公司层面来看，2024年酒企收入增速大幅放缓，收入下滑酒企数量从上年的2家增至6家。酒鬼酒 和顺鑫农业已经连续大幅下滑两年。 19家上市白酒公司归母净利润增长7.6% 贵州茅台一家占比达到52% 2024年19家上市白酒公司（剔除*ST岩石（维权）），总共实现归母净利润1668.48亿元，同比增长 7.6%。 贵州茅台去年净利润达到862.28亿元，占上市白酒净利润的近52%，提升了3.48个百分点。其次是五粮 液、泸州老窖和山西汾酒，归母净利润分别为318.5 ...

出品：新浪财经上市公司研究院 作者：浪头饮食/ 郝显 2024年，白酒行业进入深度调整！ "行业产销双线下滑、终端动销整体放缓、消费场景萎缩、消费信心不足，诸多产品价格不同程度倒 挂，"茅台集团党委副书记、总经理王莉2024年中曾对白酒行业发展趋势作出过这样的判断。 在这种背景下，渠道库存问题凸显，头部酒企也频频通过停货稳定价格体系。白酒企业分化进一步加 剧，头部酒企仍能维持稳健增长，中小酒企则开始面对压力。 从上市公司层面来看，2024年酒企收入增速大幅放缓，收入下滑酒企数量从上年的2家增至6家。酒鬼酒 和顺鑫农业已经连续大幅下滑两年。 3家酒企经营活动现金流净额转负 经营活动现金流是衡量上市公司核心盈利能力和财务健康度的关键指标，2024年3家酒企经营活动现金 流净额转负，分别为舍得酒业、酒鬼酒、金种子酒，比上年多了两家。 去年8家公司经营活动现金流净额同比增长，剔除皇台酒业之后，增速最快的是泸州老窖、山西汾酒、 口子窖。此外贵州茅台增长38.85%，也排在前列。 此外，伊力特、洋河股份、顺鑫农业、舍得酒业、金种子酒、酒鬼酒在收入下滑的情况下，存货仍在增 长。 | | | 2024年上市白酒公司存货、现金 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry is undergoing a deep adjustment in 2024, characterized by declining production and sales, sluggish terminal movement, shrinking consumption scenarios, and insufficient consumer confidence, leading to price inversions for many products [1] Group 1: Industry Overview - The liquor industry is facing significant challenges, with inventory issues becoming prominent and leading major companies to halt shipments to stabilize pricing [1] - The number of liquor companies experiencing revenue declines has increased from 2 in 2023 to 6 in 2024, indicating a growing divide between leading and smaller enterprises [2] Group 2: Revenue Performance - In 2024, 19 listed liquor companies achieved a total revenue of 441.94 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 7.67% compared to 2023, but with a notable slowdown in revenue growth [2] - The median revenue growth rate for these companies dropped to 3.69% in 2024 from 18.04% in the previous year [2] - The top three companies with the highest revenue growth rates are Jinhuijiu (18.59%), Gujinggongjiu (16.41%), and Guizhou Moutai (15.66%) [2] Group 3: Company-Specific Insights - Guizhou Moutai generated revenue of 174.14 billion yuan in 2024, accounting for 39.4% of the total revenue of listed liquor companies, an increase of nearly 3 percentage points [2] - Yanghe's revenue fell by 12.83% to 28.88 billion yuan, causing it to drop out of the 30 billion yuan club [4] - Jiugui Jiu's revenue declined nearly 50% in 2024 after a 30% drop in 2023, highlighting severe channel issues [4] Group 4: Revenue Rankings - The revenue rankings for 2024 show Guizhou Moutai leading with 174.14 billion yuan, followed by Wuliangye with 89.18 billion yuan, and Shanxi Fenjiu with 36.01 billion yuan [5] - Companies like Jiugui Jiu and Jinzongzi Jiu are experiencing significant revenue declines, with Jiugui Jiu's revenue dropping to 1.42 billion yuan, a decrease of 49.70% [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the liquor industry, indicating a positive outlook for the mid-term [1]. Core Insights - The liquor industry is experiencing continued pressure, with a focus on quality over speed in growth. The recovery in demand is showing signs of being uneven, leading companies to prioritize prudent growth strategies [12][18]. - The high-end liquor segment is seeing stable pricing control, while the mid-range segment is under pressure, indicating a divergence in performance across different price tiers [1][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Demand Recovery and Quality Focus - The liquor sector's revenue for FY 2024 grew by 8.2% year-on-year, with net profit increasing by 7.2%. For Q1 2025, revenue growth slowed to 2.3% and net profit to 2.6% [12][18]. - Consumer confidence remains weak, particularly in the mid to low-end segments, while high-end banquet consumption is showing signs of recovery from a low base [12][18]. 2. Revenue Trends - Revenue growth is gradually bottoming out, with increasing differentiation among companies. The high-end segment remains relatively stable, while the mid-range segment faces significant challenges [18][27]. - The report highlights that many liquor companies are tightening control over distributors and focusing on core products to drive sales [18][27]. 3. Profitability Analysis - The gross profit margin for the liquor sector in FY 2024 was 82.93%, a slight increase from the previous year. However, many companies are facing pressure on their gross margins due to pricing and product mix challenges [2][3]. - Sales and management expense ratios have seen slight increases, indicating a cautious approach to spending amid a challenging market environment [2][3]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that leading liquor companies are expected to show resilient growth, supported by effective channel management and digital tracking strategies. Companies like Guizhou Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu are recommended for their solid performance and valuation safety margins [3][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the food and beverage industry, indicating a gradual bottoming out for the liquor sector and a positive outlook for consumer goods [2]. Core Insights - The liquor sector is showing signs of bottoming out with significant structural differentiation among companies, while the consumer goods sector is recovering from a downturn [4][7]. - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic demand recovery, suggesting that new market scenarios and product categories present structural investment opportunities [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Liquor Sector: Signs of Bottoming Out and Structural Differentiation - The liquor industry experienced a slowdown in Q4 2024, but maintained positive growth in Q1 2025 despite high base effects, with significant differentiation among companies [7]. - Major liquor companies like Moutai and Wuliangye are outperforming the market, with Moutai's revenue growth at 10.7% and profit growth at 11.6% in Q1 2025 [12][16]. - The overall revenue for the liquor sector in 2024 was 4,417.7 billion, with a growth rate of 7.7%, while Q1 2025 saw a revenue of 1,533.6 billion, reflecting a growth of 1.8% [12][15]. 2. Consumer Goods Sector: Recovery and Bright Spots - The consumer goods sector, including dairy and beer, is showing signs of recovery, with revenue and profit growth of 2.4% and 8.4% respectively in Q1 2025 [4][16]. - New channels and product categories are driving growth in snacks and beverages, with companies like Dongpeng and Nongfu showing strong performance [4][16]. - The report suggests a positive outlook for the consumer goods sector, with expectations of a dual boost in fundamentals and valuations in the latter half of the year [4][16]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the liquor sector, such as Moutai and Wuliangye, as they are expected to benefit from the recovery phase [4][16]. - For consumer goods, it suggests investing in snack and beverage companies that are leveraging new channels and product innovations, highlighting the potential for significant growth [4][16].

根据同花顺的数据统计，从2025年初至4月30日，白酒板块整体下跌超过13%，这一跌幅在A股市场中名列前茅，仅次于光伏设备、果链等几 个少数板块，整体表现显得相当疲软。 白酒行业在2024年遭遇了前所未有的挑战，市场需求疲软与库存积压成为行业面临的两大难题。步入2025年，尽管时间已经推进，但白酒行 业的调整似乎仍在深水区徘徊，投资者的信心依然未能得到有效提振。 在个股方面，山西汾酒（600809.SH）年内上涨超过12%，今世缘和贵州茅台（600519.SH）也实现了正增长。然而，大部分白酒股却面临着 不同程度的下跌，其中酒鬼酒（000799.SZ）、皇台酒业和金种子酒的跌幅尤为显著。 值得注意的是，截至目前，所有白酒股均已发布了2025年首季财报，而业绩情况同样不容乐观。在营收方面，贵州茅台依然稳居榜首，一季 度营业总收入达到514.4亿元；五粮液（000858.SZ）紧随其后，期内实现营业总收入369.4亿元。山西汾酒和洋河股份（002304.SZ）的营业 总收入也超过了百亿元大关。然而，水井坊（600779.SH）和酒鬼酒等8家酒企的营业总收入却不足10亿元。 | | 影響生在 FINET | | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is undergoing internal adjustments and external nurturing, focusing on strengthening its foundation [3][14] - The revenue for 2024 is projected to be 1.423 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 49.7%, while the net profit is expected to be 0.1249 billion, down 97.72% [1][8] - The company aims to stabilize revenue and improve profitability through a focus on high-quality sales and product matrix upgrades [14] Revenue and Profit Analysis - In Q1 2025, the company's revenue decreased by 30.3% year-on-year, returning to levels seen in 2019-2020 [3] - The net profit margin for Q1 2025 fell by 5.6 percentage points to 9.2%, primarily due to a decline in interest income and rigid management expenses [3] - The company has implemented cost control measures, resulting in a 5.0% reduction in management expenses year-on-year [3] Product and Market Strategy - The company plans to enhance its product matrix with a "2+2+2" strategy, focusing on two strategic products, two key products, and two foundational products [14] - The company is concentrating on its home market in Hunan, with a structured approach to market management and resource allocation [14] - The number of distributors has decreased from 1,774 to 1,326, a reduction of 25%, to strengthen control and optimize focus [8][14] Financial Forecasts - The forecast for net profit in 2025 is adjusted to 0.7 billion, with projections for 2026 and 2027 at 1.1 billion and 1.5 billion respectively [14] - The current market capitalization corresponds to a P/E ratio of 213 for 2025, 128 for 2026, and 91 for 2027 [14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is undergoing internal adjustments and external nurturing, focusing on strengthening its foundation and core operations [3][15] - The revenue for Q1 2025 has decreased by 30.3% year-on-year, returning to levels seen in 2019-2020, indicating a challenging market environment [3] - The company aims to enhance its product matrix and channel dynamics, with a strategic focus on high-quality sales [15] Financial Performance Summary - For 2023, total revenue is projected at 2,830 million yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 30.14% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 is estimated at 547.81 million yuan, reflecting a significant decrease of 47.77% year-on-year [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 is forecasted at 1.69 yuan, with a drastic drop in subsequent years [1] - The company’s sales net profit margin has decreased by 5.6 percentage points to 9.2% in Q1 2025, primarily due to a decline in interest income [3] - The gross profit margin for Q1 2025 has slightly decreased by 0.4 percentage points, while the sales expense ratio has dropped by 6.2 percentage points [3] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company anticipates total revenue of 1,423 million yuan for 2024, with a projected decline of 49.70% [1] - The net profit for 2024 is expected to be only 12.49 million yuan, a staggering decrease of 97.72% year-on-year [1] - For 2025, the net profit is forecasted to rebound to 65.55 million yuan, representing a growth of 424.66% [1] Market Data - The closing price of the stock is currently at 42.90 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 13,939.45 million yuan [6] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 1,115.76 for 2024, decreasing to 91.44 by 2027 [1][16] Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to implement a "2+2+2" strategic product system to enhance its product offerings and streamline its SKU count by 50% [15] - Focus on regional market development, particularly in Hunan, with a structured management approach to optimize sales channels [15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 45.89 CNY, based on a valuation of 149 billion CNY using the FCFF method [2][4][10]. Core Views - The company is experiencing weak sales performance, with a significant decline in revenue and net profit in 2024, attributed to a challenging consumption environment. The report anticipates a gradual recovery in 2025, contingent on macroeconomic factors [9][10]. - The company aims to optimize its product structure and deepen market operations, focusing on core markets and reducing inefficient SKUs by 50% [9][10]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: The company’s revenue is projected to decline from 14.23 billion CNY in 2024 to 12.48 billion CNY in 2025, with a subsequent increase to 13.18 billion CNY in 2026 and 15.72 billion CNY in 2027 [3][9]. - **Net Profit**: The net profit is expected to recover from 0.12 billion CNY in 2024 to 0.17 billion CNY in 2025, reaching 0.20 billion CNY in 2026 and 0.31 billion CNY in 2027 [3][9]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is forecasted to be 0.04 CNY in 2024, increasing to 0.53 CNY in 2025, 0.62 CNY in 2026, and 0.96 CNY in 2027 [3][10]. - **Gross Margin**: The gross margin is expected to decline to 71.4% in 2024, with a slight recovery to 68.7% in 2025 and stabilizing around 71.4% by 2027 [3][9]. - **Net Margin**: The net margin is projected to be 0.9% in 2024, improving to 13.7% in 2025 and reaching 19.8% by 2027 [3][9]. Market Performance Summary - The company’s stock has shown a negative absolute performance over various time frames, including a -3.42% decline over the past week and a -10.72% decline over the past month [5].