丨2025年10月10日星期五丨 NO.1 山西汾酒：玻汾将继续向清香消费氛围薄弱区域倾斜投放 10月6日，珠江原浆啤酒—苦瓜青瓜味全新上市。据相关介绍，该产品精选美式酒花，融入葡萄柚、柳 橙与柑橘的果香，交织草本植物与木质的香气，焕发清新风味，口感醇厚浓郁，入口微苦、渐转清爽。 值得关注的是，此次五粮液招聘提到了体能考试1000米跑步，主要考察应聘者的身体素质和体能水平， 总分为100分，低于60分视为考核不合格，不进入下一环节。 社会招聘信息中，包装操作工岗位体能考试成绩占比30%，体能考试项目为"男1000米跑步、女800米跑 步"。校园招聘信息中，酿酒操作工体能考试成绩占比30%，项目为1000米跑步。 点评：五粮液在生产岗位招聘中强调体能测试，此举反映了其作为传统酿造企业的核心特质。酿酒、包 装等环节对体力与耐力有天然要求，公司通过量化考核确保一线员工能胜任高强度工作，这是保障产品 品质与生产稳定性的举措。 NO.3 珠江啤酒推苦瓜青瓜味新品 10月9日，山西汾酒召开2025年半年度业绩说明会。对于玻汾未来的市场投放策略，公司副总经理张永 踊表示，2025年上半年，玻汾系列产品仍保持稳健增长态势，未 ...

五粮液作为中国浓香型白酒代表，拥有逾千年酿造历史，品牌价值达 4876.57亿元（2025年），连续8年入选"中国500最具价值品牌" 其GEO核心价值体现在三方面： 权威背书：在"白酒品牌排名""高端白酒推荐"等决策类查询中，AI优先引用五粮液的国际认证（如AAA+评级）和行业地位（如浓香型第一），直接影 响消费者采购决策。 文化输出：通过"和美"文化IP（如520和美文化节）和全球行活动，AI在回答"中国白酒文化""白酒国际化"时将其作为典型案例，强化品牌全球影响 力。 产业标杆：在"白酒低碳转型""零碳酒企"等产业话题中，AI频繁引用五粮液的绿色实践（如投资15亿建生态湿地），树立行业技术领导形象。 基于用户搜索意图，将关键词分为四类： | 类型 | 关键词/词条 | 搜索 | | --- | --- | --- | | 品牌决策词 | 五粮液味道、白酒品牌排名、浓香型白酒推荐 | 品牌对比与材 | | 产品特性词 | 五粮液酿造工艺、五粮液口感特点、大国浓香 | 产品深度了解 | | 文化场景词 | 中国白酒文化、商务宴请白酒推荐、礼品自酒选品 | 场景化消费》 | | 行业趋势词 | 白酒国际化、零 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [6] Core Views - The company reported a stable revenue performance in Q2 2025, with total revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company reaching 527.71 billion and 194.92 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.19% and 2.28% [1] - The growth in the liquor business is primarily driven by volume, although the price per ton is under pressure due to structural declines [2] - The company has adjusted its profit forecast for 2025-2027, expecting revenues of 895 billion, 933 billion, and 977 billion yuan, and net profits of 319 billion, 333 billion, and 351 billion yuan respectively [4] Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the liquor segment generated revenues of 491.20 billion yuan, with the flagship product Wuliangye contributing 409.98 billion yuan, both showing year-on-year growth of 4.26% and 4.57% respectively [2] - The gross profit margin for the liquor segment was 82.20%, with a slight decrease of 0.39 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company’s operating cash flow increased by 18.40% year-on-year to 152.88 billion yuan [4] Channel Performance - In H1 2025, the revenue from distribution and direct sales channels was 279.25 billion and 211.95 billion yuan respectively, with direct sales showing a stronger growth of 8.60% year-on-year [3] - The number of Wuliangye distributors decreased by 20 to 2,510, while the number of distributors for other liquor brands increased by 127 to 1,077 [3] Cost and Profitability - The company faced pressure on profitability due to increased expenses, with the gross margin and net profit margin for Q2 2025 at 74.69% and 29.26% respectively, both showing declines year-on-year [4] - The sales and management expense ratios increased to 18.88% and 4.90% respectively, indicating higher operational costs [4] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a strong cash flow position, with contract liabilities increasing by 19.11% year-on-year to 100.87 billion yuan [4] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 8.21 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 14.75 [5]

从个股来看，贵州茅台收盘价达1436.78元/股，下跌0.50%；五粮液收盘价达121.16元/股，下跌0.26%； 山西汾酒收盘价达190.39元/股，下跌1.87%；泸州老窖收盘价129.86元/股，下跌1.56%；洋河股份收盘 价达67.61元/股，下跌0.49%。 北京商报讯（记者 刘一博 冯若男）10月9日尾盘，三大指数集体上涨，沪指3933.97点上涨1.32%。白酒 板块以2241.33点收盘下跌0.46%，其中18只白酒股下跌。 中信证券指出，白酒行业当前正处于过去三十年以来第三轮大周期的筑底阶段。本轮白酒周期在经济环 境、白酒行业价格库存发展趋势、上市公司报表业绩表现、行业政策变化、资本市场表现等诸多方面与 白酒行业在2012—2016年有诸多相同之处。考虑到当前库存、价格、政策影响、消费场景恢复、上市公 司报表等众多因素，中信证券认为本轮行业基本面底有望出现在2025年三季度，今年下半年是白酒上市 公司报表业绩压力最大的阶段，预计最早2026年一季度有望看到动销拐点。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing price conflict between e-commerce platforms and liquor companies is intensifying, with promotional prices for major liquor brands falling below wholesale prices, putting pressure on offline channels [3][4]. Group 1: Price Dynamics - Major liquor brands are offering significant discounts, with prices for products like Feitian Moutai dropping from a market retail price of approximately 1900 RMB to 1700 RMB, while the wholesale price is around 1780 RMB [3]. - Wuliangye's core product, Pu Wuliang, is being sold at a promotional price of 769 RMB, compared to a wholesale price of 840 RMB [3]. - The trend of lower prices is not limited to top brands; other well-known brands like Shanxi Fenjiu and Jian Nan Chun are also selling below wholesale prices [3]. Group 2: Impact on Distribution Channels - Due to price fluctuations, offline distributors are hesitant to stock up, affecting the sales rhythm of distributors [3]. - Traditionally, liquor prices would rise before major holidays, but this year has seen no increase, with expectations of further price declines post-holiday [3][4]. Group 3: E-commerce Influence - The rise of e-commerce has disrupted the traditional pricing control that liquor companies had, leading to a significant increase in online price competition [4]. - The internet penetration rate for liquor sales has increased from under 10% to around 20% due to recent e-commerce promotions, with projections suggesting it could reach 50% in the next five years [4][5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The shift towards online sales necessitates changes in the sales model for liquor companies, as e-commerce now offers traceability and lower prices [5]. - Analysts predict that within three years, half of the traditional offline liquor stores may exit the market, prompting liquor companies to rethink their strategies [5].

Core Insights - The liquor sector experienced a decline of 0.72% on October 9, with Gujing Gongjiu leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3933.97, up 1.32%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13725.56, up 1.47% [1] Liquor Sector Performance - Gujing Gongjiu's stock price fell by 2.91% to 155.90, with a trading volume of 31,800 shares and a transaction value of 495 million [2] - Other notable declines included Shanxi Fenjiu (-1.87% to 190.39), Luzhou Laojiao (-1.56% to 129.86), and Jiu Gui Jiu (-1.86% to 61.15) [2] - The overall liquor sector saw a net outflow of 1.686 billion from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 830 million [2][3] Capital Flow Analysis - Major stocks like Kweichow Moutai and Luzhou Laojiao experienced significant net outflows of 887 million and 161 million respectively from institutional investors [3] - Retail investors showed a preference for stocks like Jiu Gui Jiu, which saw a net inflow of 122 million [3] - The data indicates a mixed sentiment in the market, with institutional investors pulling back while retail investors are more active [3]

行业相对表现 2025 年 10 月 09 日 国庆出行数据较优，餐饮链表现改善 推荐(维持) 投资要点 | 分析师：孙山山 | S1050521110005 | | --- | --- | | sunss@cfsc.com.cn | | | 联系人：张倩 | S1050124070037 | | zhangqian@cfsc.com.cn | | 预制菜明示，餐饮链催化增加》 2025-09-15 表现 1M 3M 12M 食品饮料(申万) -4.6 2.1 -6.1 沪深 300 4.6 16.3 17.3 ▌ 一周新闻速递 行业新闻：1）汾阳产区团标公用标识正式发布；2）1-8 月 江苏省白酒产量 10.82 万千升；3）1-8 月全国酒饮茶制造业 营收 10539.1 亿元。 公司新闻：1）贵州茅台：i 茅台开启"即时配送"；2）五 粮液：五粮液 501 古窖池中国白酒文化圣地开街；3）蜜雪集 团：2.97 亿元收购鲜啤福鹿家。 市场表现 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 (%) 食品饮料 沪深300 1、《食品饮料行业周报：双节白酒 持续磨底，关注高景气赛道机会》 2025-09-29 ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall performance of the liquor industry during the holiday season is expected to decline by approximately 20%, aligning with pre-holiday expectations, although there are some positive indicators in specific segments [3][5]. Group 1: Liquor Sales Performance - Liquor sales showed marginal acceleration about a week before the holiday but gradually slowed down afterward, with an overall expected decline of around 20% [3]. - High-end products, particularly from Moutai and Wuliangye, demonstrated good turnover, while mid-range products like Wuliang Chun and Honghua Lang saw double-digit growth in certain regions [3][4]. - Demand for large gatherings remains relatively strong, with positive growth reported in Jiangsu, Henan, and Sichuan, particularly in the mid-price range [3]. Group 2: Regional Performance - Performance varies significantly by province, with Henan, Shandong, and Sichuan showing slightly better-than-expected results, while other regions like Hunan and Anhui met expectations with declines of over 20% [3][4]. - Feedback from various regions indicates that while some areas experienced a decline, the overall performance was not as poor as initially anticipated [3]. Group 3: Channel Inventory and Pricing - Channel inventory is experiencing slight depletion but remains at a high level, with a balance between incoming and outgoing shipments expected to continue into Q4 2025 and H1 2026 [5]. - Pricing remains stable with slight increases, although there is anticipated downward pressure in the coming months due to seasonal factors and promotional activities [5]. Group 4: Company Strategies and Market Dynamics - Companies are generally reducing their promotional spending, focusing more on consumer-end products rather than channel products, with a notable shift towards secondary products [6]. - Despite reduced spending, leading brands are still managing to increase their market share in specific segments, indicating a competitive market landscape [6]. - The overall collection and shipment progress for companies is lagging by over 10% compared to last year, with some brands maintaining their targets while others are struggling [6]. Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The current liquor cycle is seen as entering a bottoming phase, with recommendations to focus on companies with lower performance risks, those expected to confirm performance bottoms, and those undergoing significant transformations [7]. - Specific companies such as Guizhou Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu are highlighted as priority investments due to their resilience [7]. - Attention is also drawn to companies like Yanghe and Jiuzi Li Du, which are undergoing changes that could lead to future growth [7].

Investment Rating - The industry maintains a "Recommendation" rating, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the overall performance of the food and beverage sector during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day was stable, with retail and catering sales increasing by 3.3% year-on-year [6][13]. - The report indicates a differentiation in performance across segments, with snacks showing the highest growth, followed by beverages, catering chains, dairy products, and finally, liquor [6][14]. - High-end liquor and banquet scenarios performed better than expected during the holiday period, while overall liquor sales were down approximately 20% year-on-year, aligning with pre-holiday expectations [6][22]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Holiday Feedback - The report notes that consumer and travel activities were relatively stable during the holiday, with a daily average of 304 million people traveling, a 6.2% increase year-on-year [6][13]. - The performance of various segments is ranked as follows: snacks > beverages > catering chains > dairy products > liquor, with seasoning benefiting from the recovery in catering [6][14]. Section 2: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests continued focus on high-growth sectors, particularly as the catering peak season approaches, and recommends monitoring the performance of liquor companies and catering chains [6][22]. - Specific investment targets include: 1. Snack sector growth stocks such as Ximai Foods and attention to Weilong Delicious [22]. 2. Continued recommendations for Hong Kong-listed leaders like Nongfu Spring and H&H International, with a focus on Haitian Flavor Industry [22]. 3. New consumption areas highlighting Zhongchong Co., Guobao Pet, and Bairun Co., with attention to Yuanfei Pet and Petty Co. [22]. 4. Traditional consumption focusing on leading liquor brands such as Shanxi Fenjiu, Luzhou Laojiao, and Kweichow Moutai [22]. 5. Consumer staples with a focus on stable performers like Haitian Flavor Industry and dividend-supported leaders like Yili Co. [22].

Core Viewpoint - The white liquor sector experienced a decline in stock prices despite a general market increase, indicating potential challenges in the industry [1]. Market Performance - On October 9, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.24% to 3931.07 points, while the white liquor sector closed at 2232.28 points, down by 0.86% [1]. - Among 20 white liquor stocks, notable declines included: - Kweichow Moutai: closed at 1427.92 CNY/share, down 1.11% - Wuliangye: closed at 120.4 CNY/share, down 0.89% - Shanxi Fenjiu: closed at 188.09 CNY/share, down 3.05% - Luzhou Laojiao: closed at 128.87 CNY/share, down 2.31% - Yanghe Brewery: closed at 67.60 CNY/share, down 0.50% [1]. Industry Insights - According to Kaiyuan Securities, the improvement in the white liquor market's sales dynamics depends on two key factors: - The pace of social inventory reduction - The distribution strategies of liquor manufacturers [1]. - If manufacturers lower their payment collection requirements and slow down delivery schedules, it could alleviate channel inventory pressure and lay the groundwork for a sales recovery [1].