Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry is approaching a critical seasonal test in Q3 2025, with cautious market sentiment prevailing. Goldman Sachs predicts that Q3 2025 may represent a low point in valuation for the industry, with some stocks already reflecting a "bottoming" expectation. Target prices for leading companies like Moutai and Wuliangye have been adjusted upwards [1][2]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The liquor industry is facing dual pressures from ongoing anti-extravagance policies and a reduction in the length of the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, leading to weakened retail momentum [2]. - Companies are focusing on inventory normalization through measures such as waiving prepayments and controlling shipment volumes, which may pressure short-term performance but help return inventory levels to normal [2]. - Despite a significant decline in wholesale prices for Moutai and Wuliangye, some retailers have slightly increased end prices in anticipation of brand-controlled inventory to support profits [2][3]. Group 2: Valuation and Stock Performance - The stock prices of liquor companies have risen by 24% since Q3, with a 17% increase in price-to-earnings ratios, indicating that the market has already absorbed the impact of policy changes [2]. - The average target price for liquor stocks has been raised by 6%, with mid-to-high-end liquor valuation multiples adjusted upwards by 13% to 19% [2]. - The high dividend yields of leading companies like Moutai and Wuliangye provide a valuation safety net, with potential price increases of 20% to 30% based on normalized earnings projections for 2027 [4]. Group 3: Company-Specific Adjustments - Moutai's target price has been adjusted from 1742 yuan to 1724 yuan, reflecting a 3% to 4% decrease in earnings expectations due to policy impacts [5]. - Wuliangye's target price has been raised from 139 yuan to 145 yuan, despite a 5% to 8% reduction in earnings expectations, as its valuation multiple has been increased from 17 times to 18.5 times [5]. - Other companies like Luzhou Laojiao and Gujing Gongjiu have also seen adjustments in their target prices and earnings expectations, reflecting varying degrees of resilience and market conditions [5]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - The current "low point" in Q3 is viewed as a critical phase for the industry, with inventory control measures potentially laying the groundwork for recovery in 2026 as policies ease [6]. - Investment recommendations focus on leading companies with strong dividend yields and brand strength, as well as those with significant valuation adjustments and earnings resilience [7].

Group 1: Market Performance - The food and beverage sector experienced a significant pullback on September 18, with the Food ETF (515710) dropping over 2% during intraday trading before closing down 1.41% [1] - Major liquor stocks, including Shede Liquor, Yanghe Brewery, and Luzhou Laojiao, saw declines exceeding 2%, while leading brands like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye fell over 1% [1] Group 2: Investment Trends - Despite the recent pullback, there has been a notable influx of capital into the food and beverage sector, with the Food ETF (515710) recording a net subscription of 24.1 million CNY over the past five trading days [1] - The food and beverage sector is currently viewed as having a favorable valuation, with the Food ETF's underlying index PE ratio at 21.12, placing it at a low point historically [4] Group 3: Industry Outlook - Kweichow Moutai ranked third in the Kantar BrandZ Most Valuable Chinese Brands 2025 list, with a brand value of 80.023 billion USD, marking its sixth consecutive year in the top three [3] - Analysts suggest that as policy pressures ease, there is potential for a weak recovery in demand for liquor, particularly with the upcoming holiday season expected to improve sales [3][6] - The liquor industry is seen as being at a low valuation point, with expectations for gradual improvement in fundamentals as the market stabilizes [4][6]

Core Viewpoint - The stock market experienced a collective decline on September 18, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 1.15% to 3831.66 points, and the liquor sector also faced a downturn, indicating potential challenges in the industry despite the upcoming consumption peak during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day [1]. Industry Summary - The liquor sector index closed at 2315.48 points, down 1.60%, with all 20 liquor stocks declining by over 1% [1]. - Major liquor companies saw significant stock price drops: Kweichow Moutai (600519) closed at 1467.96 CNY per share, down 1.68%; Wuliangye (000858) at 123.94 CNY, down 1.60%; Shanxi Fenjiu (600809) at 201.00 CNY, down 1.69%; Luzhou Laojiao (000568) at 133.70 CNY, down 2.41%; and Yanghe Brewery (002304) at 70.13 CNY, down 2.04% [1]. - According to Pacific Securities, while terminal sales are expected to recover on a month-on-month basis due to the approaching consumption peak, year-on-year sales pressure remains significant due to economic and policy factors. It is anticipated that products priced below 300 CNY will perform better than those above 500 CNY [1].

Group 1 - The stock indices weakened on September 18, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping over 1.00%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.78%, and the ChiNext Index falling 1.13% [1] - The Tianhong Food and Beverage ETF (159736) saw a decline of 1.08% with a trading volume exceeding 24 million yuan, while it recorded a net subscription of 10 million units during the session [1] - The Tianhong Food and Beverage ETF has attracted a net inflow of over 25.28 million yuan yesterday and a cumulative inflow of 37.23 million yuan over the past five trading days [1] Group 2 - The State Council introduced a set of policies aimed at expanding service consumption, focusing on five areas with 19 specific measures to enhance quality and efficiency in service supply [2] - The Ministry of Culture and Tourism announced the launch of a three-year action plan for cultural and tourism consumption, which includes issuing over 330 million yuan in consumption subsidies during the consumption month [2] Group 3 - The white liquor industry is transitioning from "passive clearing" to "active adjustment," indicating an accelerated bottoming phase due to macroeconomic recovery and inventory cycle adjustments [3] - The industry is currently experiencing multiple bottoms in valuation, institutional positions, and fundamentals, with positive signals emerging from the release of consumption scenarios and demand for banquets [3] - The peak consumption seasons of Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day are expected to accelerate the bottoming process, with a forecast for recovery in financial reports by 2026 [3]

消息面上，国务院新闻办9月17日举行新闻发布会，介绍《关于扩大服务消费的若干政策措施》的主要 内容及亮点。商务部有关负责人表示，《政策措施》提出5方面19条具体任务措施，坚持惠民生和促消 费相结合，坚持优化供给和激发需求相结合，坚持对外开放和对内放开相结合，吸引更多优质服务消费 资源进入，解决供给侧优质服务短缺问题，激发经营主体活力，提高服务供给的质量和效率。 此外，文化和旅游部产业发展司司长缪沐阳9月17日在国新办新闻发布会上表示，将正式启动"百城百 区"文化和旅游消费三年行动计划，协调中国银联、金融机构、平台企业推出消费券、支付满减等优惠 以及入境旅游消费便利措施；各地也陆续出台扩大文旅消费的专项政策，将在消费月期间发放超过3.3 亿元的消费补贴。 民生证券指出，从"被动出清"到"主动调整"，白酒行业处于加速筑底阶段。2025年上半年白酒行业经历 了宏观经济缓慢修复、行业库存周期高位去化以及518史上最严禁酒令的政策面压制等，消费场景受 损，行业需求延续承压，酒企放缓回款节奏纾压渠道，加速库存去化，二季度报表同比转负，行业加速 出清筑底。当前行业处于估值、机构仓位、基本面的多重底部，进入8月以来，场景释放 ...

9月16日，以"共赏文明之光，共享和美未来"为主题的2025大阪世博会中国馆"五粮液主题日"成功举 办。作为"大阪世博会中国馆高级合作伙伴"，五粮液依托这一全球性交流窗口，打造主题日展陈、定制 礼物、互动活动、五粮液海外授权体验餐厅授牌仪式及多城联动品鉴促销等系列活动，搭建起中国品牌 与世界对话的桥梁，让"大国浓香"的魅力持续在国际舞台绽放。 中国馆"五粮液主题日"活动现场，沙画、视频、图片与微缩景观交相辉映，以沉浸式视觉语言勾勒中国 品牌的独特魅力。12.98米长的LED环形屏幕成为展陈核心亮点：沙画光影流转间，生动再现了五粮液 从1915年巴拿马万国博览会崭露头角，到相继亮相2010年上海世博会、2015年米兰世博会、2020年迪拜 世博会的精彩历程，更清晰定格了2025年五粮液成为大阪世博会中国馆高级合作伙伴的重要时刻。一幕 幕画面串联起百年来品牌与世博会从早期链接到深度同行的深厚情缘，娓娓道来品牌以世博为窗、持续 与世界对话的品牌故事。现场陈列的五粮液·百年世博纪念酒、五粮液·大阪世博会纪念礼盒、五粮液·迪 拜世博会纪念酒等，正是这段跨越世纪"世博情缘"的生动见证。 移步核心展示区域，经典五粮液系列集 ...

Core Viewpoint - The white liquor sector is experiencing a shift in pricing logic, indicating that it may no longer be considered a cyclical growth stock, with future stock price gains expected to come from stable performance increments and appropriate dividends [1] Market Performance - On September 18, the Shanghai Composite Index opened at 3893.95 points, rising by 0.45% - The white liquor sector closed at 2344.99 points, down by 0.35%, with 17 stocks in the sector declining [1] Individual Stock Performance - Kweichow Moutai closed at 1485.40 CNY per share, down by 0.51% - Wuliangye closed at 125.15 CNY per share, down by 0.64% - Shanxi Fenjiu closed at 203.29 CNY per share, down by 0.57% - Luzhou Laojiao closed at 135.39 CNY per share, down by 1.18% - Yanghe Brewery closed at 70.89 CNY per share, down by 0.98% [1] Analyst Insights - Guotai Junan Securities suggests that the pricing logic in the white liquor industry will undergo a trend change, moving away from being a cyclical growth stock [1]

智通财经APP获悉，中信证券发布研报称，白酒行业正在筑底，考虑到当前库存、价格、政策影响、消 费场景恢复、上市公司公布报表等众多因素，中信证券判断本轮行业基本面底有望出现在2025三季度， 预计今年三季度是行业动销、价格、市场信心压力最大的阶段，预计今年下半年是白酒上市公司报表业 绩压力最大的阶段，再考虑到后续逐步复苏趋势明确，看好白酒行业底部配置机会。啤酒下半年基数较 低，中信证券预计三季度报表表现维持稳定态势。 风险因素： 中信证券主要观点如下： 估值回落至长期低位，股东回报提升增厚投资安全边际。 2025年至今（2025/1/1~9/12），酒类板块整体股价+1.1%，跑输沪深300指数13.8ppts；本周 （2025/9/8~9/12），酒鬼酒（+5.57%）、古井贡酒（+3.78%）、山西汾酒（+3.11%）为涨幅前三的酒 企。目前，白酒板块整体市盈率（TTM）已回落至19.9x，分别处在1年/3年/5年/10年/上市以来的 60%/26%/16%/10%/17%分位；啤酒板块整体市盈率（TTM）为22.8x，分别处在1年/3年/5年/10年/上市 以来的3%/4%/2%/1%/1%分位。 白酒： ...

Industry Overview - The liquor industry is undergoing a deep adjustment period, with the white liquor sector facing high channel inventory and price inversion, while leading companies like Moutai and Wuliangye continue to grow [6][11] - The beer industry is performing well, with major players like China Resources, Tsingtao, and Yanjing showing revenue and profit growth, driven by high-end products [5][6] - The overall liquor market structure remains largely unchanged, with leading companies gaining more advantages while different liquor categories face unique challenges and opportunities [6][10] Key Insights on Liquor Segments - The second and third-tier sauce liquor brands are struggling with inventory buildup and price inversion, necessitating a shift from scale competition to value competition, focusing on brand positioning and quality upgrades [3][4] - The beer industry is experiencing a transformation with a focus on high-end products, craft beers, and innovative distribution channels, which are becoming key profit growth points [5][6] - The low-alcohol liquor market is projected to reach 74 billion yuan by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 25%, as younger consumers drive the trend towards "light drinking" and social consumption [13][14] Brand Dynamics - Wuliangye reported a revenue of 52.771 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.19%, showcasing the resilience of industry leaders [16] - Luzhou Laojiao achieved a revenue of 16.454 billion yuan and a net profit of 7.663 billion yuan, focusing on market penetration and product innovation to adapt to changing consumer demands [20] - Moutai is launching new products to enhance market reach, emphasizing consumer needs and personalized offerings during the adjustment period [7][8] Consumer Trends - The industry is witnessing a shift towards lower alcohol content and personalized products, with companies like Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao introducing low-alcohol options to cater to younger consumers [13][29] - The focus on emotional value and social attributes in consumption is becoming increasingly important, as brands adapt to the preferences of younger demographics [9][21] - The online sales of aged liquor are growing, with the market expected to exceed 130 billion yuan by 2024, driven by younger consumers and the demand for unique experiences [14][19] Strategic Initiatives - Companies are increasingly adopting cross-industry strategies to attract younger consumers, with brands like Moutai and Luzhou Laojiao exploring collaborations with non-alcoholic sectors [11][12] - The emphasis on cultural experiences and community engagement is becoming a key strategy for brands to build loyalty and enhance consumer connections [25][26] - The introduction of innovative products and marketing strategies is essential for brands to navigate the competitive landscape and meet evolving consumer expectations [22][30]

来源：文轩财经 对此，文轩指数推出2025上半年白酒企业活力排名，活力是企业发展的必备条件，是创新和适应市场变化的内在能力，我们从多项数据维度评判 白酒企业的活力指数，试图探究白酒行业的一些发展趋势。 01 行业"开心"玩家越来越少了 虽然，当前白酒行业处于"量减、收平、利降"的调整期，头部企业营收增速放缓，不少酒企更是出现下跌，这更需要企业在行业逆境之中拔开云 雾！ 2025上半年，22家上市白酒企业中，6家保持了营收和净利润的双增长，包括贵州茅台、五粮液、山西汾酒、古井贡酒、老白干酒和金徽酒。营收 超百亿的企业共6家，包括贵州茅台、五粮液、山西汾酒、泸州老窖、洋河股份、古井贡酒。 以汾酒为例，其青花汾酒30·复兴版升级款采用了"微氧呼吸结构"技术，在年轻化上，注重口感创新，通过开发轻酒饮、鼓励消费者进行创意调 饮，这也开辟了新的销售场景和用户；五粮液深耕微生物、风味物质等基础研究，并积极推动智能化生产，不断巩固其品质优势。 在研发投入上2025年，主要上市酒企的平均研发费用整体看有增无减，2025年上半年，五粮液研发费用2.1亿元， 同比增长31.2%；现代生物技术 复刻老窖泥工程技术的转化应用取得突破， ...