Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the food and beverage industry, particularly highlighting the stability in the production volume of Moutai and the cyclical layout of food products [1][15]. Core Insights - Moutai's production volume for 2026 is set to remain stable, with a focus on balancing supply and demand, and a shift from production-driven to sales-driven strategies [2][11]. - The report anticipates a significant improvement in supply-demand dynamics compared to 2025, driven by emerging channels stimulating consumer demand for alcoholic beverages [1][15]. - The dairy sector is expected to see a turning point in milk prices, with leading dairy companies projected to experience performance recovery and increased valuation support in 2026 [1][15]. - The report emphasizes the importance of strategic planning and product innovation among key companies to navigate market challenges and capitalize on growth opportunities [12][14]. Summary by Sections Core Company Tracking - Moutai aims to enhance the market share of its 500ml Flying Moutai while reducing the production of high-value products and focusing on a diversified sales network [2][11]. - Luzhou Laojiao maintains a restrained pricing strategy for its Guojiao product, anticipating Q1 2026 as a critical adjustment period for the industry [12]. - Shouxiangu is projected to achieve a compound annual growth rate of over 20% from 2026 to 2030, with a focus on major products and channels [12]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a focus on Moutai and other key brands for the upcoming Spring Festival, with recommendations for stocks like Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao due to their potential for rebound [15][16]. - Attention is drawn to consumer goods companies such as Weidong and Angel Yeast, which are expected to benefit from cost advantages and cyclical performance improvements [16]. - The report highlights three main investment themes: improving sales volume, cyclical opportunities, and cost benefits across various companies in the sector [16]. Industry Valuation Table - The report includes a valuation table for key companies, indicating market capitalizations and projected earnings for 2025 to 2027, showcasing the financial health and growth potential of major players in the industry [17][19].

Core Insights - The core viewpoint of the article is that the Chinese liquor market, particularly the top ten liquor products, has shown signs of price recovery after a brief decline, with an overall increase in retail prices observed on Monday [1][6]. Price Trends - The average retail price of the top ten liquor products has stabilized and rebounded, with a total price of 9,210 yuan for a bundled sale of one bottle from each product, reflecting an increase of 23 yuan from the previous day [1][6]. - The market is experiencing a general upward trend, with most brands seeing price increases. Notably, Yanghe Dream Blue M6+ saw a significant rebound of 12 yuan per bottle, leading the market [1][7]. - Other notable price increases include: - Qinghua Lang up 7 yuan per bottle, marking its eighth consecutive day of price increases [1][7]. - Wuliangye Pu 58th generation up 5 yuan per bottle [1][7]. - Qinghua Fen 20 up 4 yuan per bottle [1][7]. - Guizhou Moutai premium up 3 yuan per bottle [1][7]. - Gujing Gong 20 and Shuijing Jian Nan Chun each up 1 yuan per bottle [1][7]. - Conversely, some products have seen price declines, including: - Xijiu Junpin down 6 yuan per bottle, continuing a three-day downward trend [1][7]. - Guojiao 1573 down 4 yuan per bottle [1][7]. - Feitian Moutai down 3 yuan per bottle [1][7]. Data Collection Methodology - The daily data for "Liquor Price Reference" is sourced from approximately 200 collection points across various regions, including designated distributors, social distributors, mainstream e-commerce platforms, and retail outlets, ensuring a comprehensive and objective representation of the market [2][7]. Industry Developments - On December 28, Guizhou Moutai held a national distributor conference, where the new management team emphasized respect and openness towards distributors and outlined a development strategy for 2026 [2][7]. - Moutai acknowledged its shortcomings in marketization and consumer reach while asserting the broad market potential for Moutai liquor [2][7]. - The core plan for the upcoming year includes preventing price speculation, promoting market-driven pricing, and establishing a pyramid product system centered around the 500ml Feitian Moutai as the main product [2][7]. - Moutai aims to enhance online and offline integration, encouraging compliant distributors to expand online business while focusing on consumer-centric marketing transformation [2][7]. - The chairman, Chen Hua, redefined the relationship with distributors, promising not to let them incur losses while urging a shift from passive to proactive consumer service [2][7].

Summary of the White Liquor Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The white liquor industry is currently in a downward adjustment cycle, with overall market demand remaining weak, particularly in November and December. This trend is expected to continue until at least the second half of 2026 or later [2][3][7]. Key Points and Arguments - **Price and Supply Adjustments**: The industry has not yet reached a bottom in terms of price and supply. For instance, Moutai's price has decreased but has not hit the bottom, and the supply from strong brands like Moutai and Fenjiu has not been fully adjusted [2][4]. - **Impact of Price Cuts**: Moutai (1,935) and Wuliangye (1,618) have seen some sales growth from price cuts, but brands like Yanghe M3 have not experienced significant improvements. The long-term effects of these price cuts on sales remain uncertain [2][6]. - **Challenges for Moutai**: Moutai faces difficulties in maintaining its pricing structure, with the price of its flagship product declining and distributors at risk of losses. Reducing supply is seen as a method to stabilize prices, but this conflicts with growth targets [2][10]. - **Wuliangye's Issues**: Wuliangye is dealing with wholesale price inversion and channel system problems. Digital transformation is crucial but challenging due to organizational structure limitations [2][11]. - **Luzhou Laojiao's Strategy**: Luzhou Laojiao has taken a calm approach to market conditions, refusing to lower prices, which may lead to short-term sales losses but is expected to strengthen its brand position in the long run [2][14]. Additional Important Insights - **External Economic Factors**: The recovery of the white liquor market is heavily influenced by external economic conditions and policy factors, such as the potential long-term impact of alcohol bans on high-end demand, estimated to affect demand by 20% to 30% [2][5][19]. - **Future Market Outlook**: The first half of 2026 is expected to remain in a bottoming phase, with potential improvement in the second half depending on external conditions. Continuous policy factors like alcohol bans may limit market rebound [2][7]. - **Strategic Adjustments**: Companies are adopting various strategies to cope with the adjustment cycle. Some are cutting prices to boost sales, while others are focusing on structural adjustments to navigate market changes [2][8][9]. - **Consumer Behavior During Festivals**: The white liquor market typically sees unexpected performance during the Spring Festival, as it is a rigid consumption scenario where consumers tend to purchase more expensive liquor regardless of the economic environment [2][5][23]. Conclusion - The white liquor industry is navigating a challenging period characterized by price adjustments, supply issues, and varying strategies among key players. The outlook remains cautious, with significant reliance on external economic factors and internal strategic decisions to shape future performance.

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transformation of the "Harmony and Beauty" culture into practical business practices, highlighting the strategic direction and initiatives of Wuliangye Group during the 29th Consensus Building and Sharing Conference on December 18 [2][4]. Group 1: Strategic Initiatives - Wuliangye has positioned 2026 as the "Year of Marketing Integrity and Innovation," focusing on enhancing brand value while implementing a dual-target strategy to improve market share and sales performance [6]. - The company introduced a series of measures to reshape traditional cooperation models, emphasizing a dual-track support system for partners that combines incentives with support [7][8]. - Wuliangye's proactive measures during market downturns, such as slowing down shipment rates and lowering payment requirements, reflect a commitment to long-term channel health over short-term performance [10]. Group 2: Cultural Integration - The conference activities, including a sacrificial ceremony and a cultural night, reinforced the cultural identity and heritage of Wuliangye, showcasing its commitment to blending traditional values with modern business practices [13][15]. - Wuliangye aims to create a "fate community" with its partners, transcending mere commercial contracts to foster emotional and cultural connections [17][19]. Group 3: Market Positioning - The company is transitioning from a product supplier to a platform provider, focusing on deep strategic collaboration with distributors to enhance their operational capabilities and market presence [22][24]. - Wuliangye's initiatives aim to establish a win-win ecosystem involving brands, distributors, and consumers, ensuring a stable and trustworthy market environment [26]. Group 4: Industry Leadership - Wuliangye's "Harmony and Beauty" paradigm extends beyond its operations, aiming to lead the entire liquor industry towards high-quality development and sustainable practices [28][30]. - The company is actively involved in setting industry standards and promoting the protection and inheritance of cultural heritage within the sector [32][33].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the food and beverage industry, particularly in the cyclical direction, emphasizing the importance of domestic demand and consumption [1][7]. Core Views - The report highlights the recent emphasis from authoritative media and high-level officials on the importance of domestic demand, which is crucial for the industry [7]. - Despite a recent pullback in the high-end liquor sector, the report anticipates a recovery in sales and pricing balance in the upcoming quarters, with expectations of a double-digit decline in sales year-on-year for Q1 2026, followed by stabilization in Q2 and a potential turning point in Q3 [7][8]. - The report suggests that high-quality liquor companies are currently in a strategic allocation phase, with recommendations for specific brands such as Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, Guizhou Moutai, and Wuliangye [7][8]. - For the consumer goods sector, the report identifies systemic opportunities, with a focus on CPI as a core observation indicator, predicting gradual improvement in food CPI throughout the year [7][10]. Summary by Sections Food and Beverage Weekly Insights - The food and beverage sector experienced a decline of 0.56% last week, with the liquor segment down by 0.20%, underperforming the broader market [6]. - The report notes that the top gainers included Anji Food (+29.65%) and Xichuan Food (+9%), while the biggest losers were Huanlejia (-16.35%) and Zhuangyuan Pasture (-13.19%) [6]. Liquor Sector - Moutai's bottle price is reported at 1550 RMB, with a week-on-week increase of 5 RMB, while the box price is 1560 RMB, also up by 5 RMB. Wuliangye's price remains stable at approximately 780 RMB, and Guojiao 1573 has decreased by 10 RMB to around 820 RMB [8][33]. - The Moutai dealer conference emphasized a market-oriented transformation, focusing on consumer-centric strategies and adjusting product offerings to stabilize market dynamics [8]. Consumer Goods Sector - The report recommends focusing on the restaurant supply chain, particularly in condiments and frozen foods, with specific recommendations for companies like Anji Food, Qianhe Flavor, and Tianwei Food [10]. - The dairy sector is expected to see an improved supply-demand balance in 2026, with recommendations for Yili and New Dairy [10]. Valuation Metrics - As of December 26, the food and beverage sector has a dynamic PE of 20.02x, with a premium rate of 21%, while the liquor sector has a dynamic PE of 18.50x, with a premium rate of 12% [34].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the strategic development of Guojiao 1573's "Art Spring Wine" series, emphasizing its long-term collaboration with contemporary artists to enhance brand value and cultural significance, marking a shift in the high-end liquor market towards deeper artistic integration [1][3][11]. Group 1: Brand Development - Guojiao 1573 has established a systematic approach to its "Art Spring Wine" series, collaborating with a different artist each year since 2019, which reflects a commitment to building a sustainable brand asset rather than seeking short-term marketing gains [3][6]. - The collaboration with artist Mao Yan in 2026 continues the brand's tradition of integrating contemporary art into its products, enhancing the emotional and cultural resonance of the brand [5][16]. Group 2: Value Creation - The "Art Spring Wine" series employs a dual scarcity model, combining physical limitations (global limit of 60,000 bottles) with the uniqueness of an annual artist collaboration, creating a robust value cycle [6][8]. - Each bottle not only represents a tangible asset but also carries a unique cultural identity and historical significance, transforming the product into a "cultural relic" that reflects specific aesthetic concepts and contemporary sentiments [8][9]. Group 3: Strategic Insights - The sustained practice of the "Art Spring Wine" series serves as a strategic reference for the high-end consumer goods sector, highlighting the importance of patience in cross-industry collaborations and the need for a clear narrative in brand development [11][13]. - The article emphasizes the necessity of multi-dimensional value creation through the integration of quality, artistic significance, and market scarcity, which collectively enhance the brand's overall value proposition [14][16]. Group 4: Cultural Integration - Guojiao 1573's choice of artists is based on a deep understanding of their creative philosophies, ensuring that collaborations resonate with the brand's core values and contribute to a lasting cultural dialogue [14][16]. - The brand's commitment to cultural empowerment is evident in its initiatives, such as the "Contemporary is Future" art public welfare project, which integrates art into the brand's DNA and fosters a sustainable artistic ecosystem [6][9].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The value of layout in the high-end liquor sector is becoming evident, and the optimization of raw milk supply and demand is creating investment opportunities [3][12] - The food and beverage index experienced a decline of 0.6% from December 22 to December 26, ranking 25th among 28 sectors, underperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 2.5 percentage points [12][14] - The high-end liquor industry is currently in a deep adjustment period due to slowing economic growth and insufficient consumer confidence, but there are signs of demand improvement compared to the second and third quarters [12] - The price strategy for premium liquor brands like Moutai is stabilizing, with recent prices in the range of 1500-1600 RMB, and significant price drops are not expected in the near future [12] - The raw milk supply-demand gap has slightly narrowed, with a short-term recovery in demand due to pre-holiday stocking, but long-term supply remains in surplus [4][13] Summary by Sections Weekly Insights - The liquor sector shows layout value, and the raw milk supply-demand optimization is generating investment opportunities [3][12] - The food and beverage index underperformed the market, with specific sub-sectors like health products and other foods showing relative strength [12][14] Market Performance - The food and beverage index fell by 0.6%, ranking 25th out of 28 sectors, with health products (+0.5%) and other foods (+0.0%) performing relatively better [12][14] Upstream Data - Recent data indicates a decline in some upstream raw material prices, with full-fat milk powder auction prices down 18.7% year-on-year [20][21] Liquor Industry News - Prices for premium Moutai products have increased, reflecting strong market demand and limited supply [42] Recommended Portfolio - Recommended stocks include Guizhou Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and West Oat Foods, among others, focusing on companies with strong performance stability and risk resilience [5][48]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the food and beverage industry [7]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the liquor industry is expected to see a full risk release by 2025, with a dual improvement in supply and demand anticipated in 2026. Short-term sales are expected to improve, particularly during the Spring Festival, while medium-term recovery in sales, pricing, and financial reports is also expected [2][4]. - The report highlights the impact of the EU's anti-subsidy measures, which are likely to accelerate domestic replacements in deep processing, particularly in the dairy sector. This is expected to create opportunities in the food sector as companies prepare for the Spring Festival [4][8]. - The beer sector is experiencing a slight decline in major markets like China and the US, but global beer consumption is projected to grow by 0.5% in 2024, indicating a potential for recovery [3]. Summary by Sections Liquor Industry - The report discusses the proactive measures taken by leading liquor companies to optimize supply and enhance sales channels. Notable companies like Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye are focusing on product structure and market innovation [2]. - The report suggests that companies such as Luzhou Laojiao and Yanghe Brewery are well-positioned for short-term recovery due to supply improvements and strong brand positioning [2]. Beer and Beverage Sector - Global beer consumption is projected to reach approximately 19.41 billion liters in 2024, with a slight increase despite declines in major markets [3]. - The establishment of a subsidiary in Thailand by Xiangpiaopiao is noted as a strategic move to enhance overseas business development [3]. Food Sector - The report indicates that the EU's anti-subsidy measures on dairy products will likely benefit domestic producers, particularly in the context of the upcoming Spring Festival [4][8]. - Companies like Yili and Anjoy Foods are highlighted as potential beneficiaries of the market expansion driven by these policy changes [8].

（记者 胡玲） 免责声明：本文内容与数据仅供参考，不构成投资建议，使用前请核实。据此操作，风险自担。 每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——涨疯了！黄金、铂金、白银通通创历史新高，美元大贬值！专家：美联储 独立性遭干预引发危机；前美联储理事：大幅降息重启房地产市场 每日经济新闻 每经AI快讯，国信证券12月28日发布研报称，给予五粮液（000858.SZ，最新价：109.78元）"优于大 市"评级。评级理由主要包括：1）2025年工作总结：主动应市调整，巩固产品、渠道基础；2）2026年 工作部署：营销守正创新年，产品、渠道、市场多方位协同发力；3）切实解决经销商关切，关注公司 改革成效。风险提示：宏观经济及需求复苏不及预期；消费税等产业政策；食品安全问题等。 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese liquor industry is undergoing a paradigm shift from channel marketing to content marketing, with a significant increase in GMV for liquor categories on platforms like Douyin, which is projected to grow by 320% year-on-year in 2024, with over 60% attributed to liquor [1][3] Group 1: Public Domain Explosion - Public domain platforms such as Douyin, Kuaishou, and Bilibili are the main battlegrounds for liquor brands to acquire incremental traffic, yet 80% of brands face a "high investment, low conversion" dilemma due to mismatches between industrial content production and platform traffic rules [5][6] - Brands need to build a "content arsenal" under algorithmic logic, testing massive content to identify high-conversion materials for traffic investment [6][8] - Successful examples include Jiangxiaobai's "racehorse mechanism" with over 80 million views for a cocktail video, and Moutai's cultural IP strategy that generated 2 million exposures through seasonal cultural content [9][11] Group 2: Private Domain Extraction - With an average public domain traffic loss rate exceeding 95%, private domain becomes crucial for liquor companies to transform users into assets, requiring a shift from promotional group logic to deep user value exploration [19] - The three-layer funnel model exemplified by Yanghe's "Drunken Research Institute" includes lead generation through low-cost tasting experiences, nurturing with professional content, and high-value user conversion events [19][20][21] - User segmentation and precise targeting are essential, as demonstrated by Wuliangye's RFM model, which tailors offerings based on user value [22][24] Group 3: Full Domain Resonance - When public domain traffic and private domain user accumulation reach a critical point, brands must leverage full-domain synergy to convert communication momentum into consumption energy [26] - Content IP creation is vital for reusable communication assets, as seen in Jiananspring's campaign linked to cultural themes, achieving over 600 million views [28] - Data platforms drive precise operations across channels, with examples like Luzhou Laojiao's user behavior monitoring leading to targeted product recommendations [30] Group 4: Challenges and Solutions - Despite breakthroughs in short video content marketing, the industry faces challenges such as content inflation and channel conflicts, necessitating differentiated content strategies and product segmentation to avoid price comparisons [33][35] - Collaborative channel strategies, like Yanghe's "cloud store system," allow users to pick up online orders at local distributors, sharing profits to mitigate conflicts [35][36]