Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the concerns raised by major liquor companies regarding unauthorized sales of their products on e-commerce platforms during the "Double Eleven" shopping festival, highlighting issues of authenticity and pricing discrepancies [3][5]. Group 1: Company Responses - Major liquor companies such as Moutai, Wuliangye, and Guizhou Xijiu have issued statements criticizing e-commerce platforms for selling products without authorization, leading to concerns about counterfeit goods [3][5]. - Wuliangye's notice to consumers highlighted that unauthorized stores may sell products outside of their official control and traceability systems, raising the risk of counterfeit and inferior products [3][5]. - Guizhou Xijiu also pointed out the risks associated with unauthorized online sales, although their authorized list mainly included their own stores and distributors on e-commerce platforms [5]. Group 2: Pricing and Market Dynamics - As of October 20, the price of 53-degree Feitian Moutai after subsidies was 1,650 yuan per bottle, a decrease of 30 yuan from the previous days, while Wuliangye's price remained stable at 769 yuan, both significantly lower than market wholesale prices [3]. - A comparison showed that Guizhou Xijiu's official flagship store prices were 30% higher than those on e-commerce platforms offering substantial discounts [5]. - An online liquor sales company representative noted that the current promotional prices are primarily due to e-commerce platforms purchasing from the market and subsidizing prices, which complicates the supply chain and raises concerns about product authenticity [5]. Group 3: E-commerce Platform Practices - E-commerce platforms are reportedly sourcing liquor products from social channels, which are outside the manufacturers' control, leading to potential issues with counterfeit products [5]. - Taobao's customer service claimed that their "Billion Subsidy Channel" is official and guarantees product authenticity, promising a "tenfold compensation" for counterfeit products [5]. - The article suggests that the aggressive low-price strategies employed by e-commerce platforms to attract traffic may create opportunities for counterfeit sales, indicating a shift away from the original sales intent of premium liquor brands [5].

Core Viewpoint - The recent "Double Eleven" sales event has raised concerns among major liquor companies regarding unauthorized sales and potential counterfeit products on e-commerce platforms [1] Group 1: Company Responses - Major liquor companies such as Moutai, Wuliangye, and Guizhou Xijiu have issued statements condemning unauthorized sales on e-commerce platforms, highlighting issues with product authenticity and complex supply chains [1][5] - Wuliangye released a consumer notice indicating that some online platforms are selling its products through unauthorized stores, which may lead to counterfeit and substandard goods [1][5] - Guizhou Xijiu also expressed concerns about the risks of counterfeit products from unauthorized online channels, while providing a list of authorized sellers [5] Group 2: Pricing and Market Dynamics - As of October 20, the subsidized price for 53-degree Feitian Moutai was 1,650 yuan per bottle, a decrease of 30 yuan from the previous days, while Wuliangye's price remained stable at 769 yuan, both significantly lower than wholesale market prices [1] - A market representative noted that the current promotional prices for major liquor brands are often lower than those in official stores, indicating a disconnect between online and offline pricing [5] - The pricing strategy during the "Double Eleven" event is primarily driven by e-commerce platforms purchasing products from the market and subsidizing prices, which complicates the supply chain and raises concerns about product authenticity [5][6] Group 3: E-commerce Platform Practices - Taobao's customer service claimed that its "Billion Subsidy Channel" is official and guarantees product authenticity, promising a "tenfold compensation" for counterfeit products [6] - Industry experts pointed out that liquor products sold on e-commerce platforms often come from social channels, which are outside the manufacturers' control, leading to increased risks of counterfeiting [6] - The current sales model for premium liquor has deviated from its original intent, raising concerns about the sustainability and integrity of such sales practices [6]

Core Viewpoint - The promotion of famous liquor during the "Double Eleven" shopping festival has deviated from its original sales intention, raising concerns among liquor companies about unauthorized sales and potential counterfeit products [1] Group 1: Company Responses - Multiple liquor companies, including Moutai, Wuliangye, and Guizhou Xijiu, have issued statements criticizing e-commerce platforms for selling products without authorization, leading to concerns about the authenticity of the products [1] - Wuliangye released a notice indicating that some online platforms are selling its products through unauthorized stores, which do not fall under its official product control and traceability system, potentially leading to counterfeit issues [1] - Guizhou Xijiu also condemned unauthorized online sales, highlighting the risk of counterfeit products, while providing a list of authorized online channels [5] Group 2: Pricing and Market Dynamics - As of October 20, the subsidized price of 53-degree Feitian Moutai was 1,650 yuan per bottle, a decrease of 30 yuan from the previous days, while Wuliangye's price remained stable at 769 yuan, both significantly lower than market wholesale prices [1] - A comparison revealed that Guizhou Xijiu's official flagship store prices were 30% higher than those on e-commerce platforms offering substantial discounts [5] - An online liquor sales company noted that the famous liquor products during the "Double Eleven" event are primarily sourced from the market by e-commerce platforms, which raises concerns about the complexity of the supply chain [5] Group 3: E-commerce Platform Practices - E-commerce platforms are reportedly using low-price strategies to attract traffic, which may create opportunities for counterfeit sales, as products are often sourced from social channels outside of manufacturer control [5] - Taobao's customer service claimed that its "Billion Subsidy Channel" is an official channel that guarantees product authenticity and has introduced third-party testing agencies with a "tenfold compensation" promise for counterfeit products [5] - The current sales model of famous liquor as a traffic driver has strayed from its original sales purpose, indicating a need for attention to this abnormal sales practice [5]

Core Insights - The total brand value of the top 200 Chinese liquor brands in 2025 is 99,305.21 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 4.26%, demonstrating resilience amid structural adjustments [1] Group 1: Huangjiu Market Growth - The Huangjiu market has experienced unexpected growth after years of stagnation, with brand value increasing by 42.91 billion yuan, a rise of 6.27% compared to 2024 [2] - Leading Huangjiu brands such as Guyue Longshan, Kuaijishan, and Shanghai Jinfeng achieved growth rates exceeding 15%, significantly higher than the overall liquor industry [2] - Growth in Huangjiu is driven by market upgrades and innovative products targeting younger consumers, such as low-alcohol canned Huangjiu [2] Group 2: Resilience of Liquor Distributors - Liquor distributors have shown strong resilience during the industry's adjustment period, with the top ten distributors' brand value increasing from 5,177.44 billion yuan to 5,254.41 billion yuan, a growth of 1.49% [4] - The average annual digital investment by distributors has grown by over 40%, enhancing operational efficiency through technology [4] - The success of self-owned brands, such as Jiuxian Network's Rongda Sauce Liquor, indicates a shift in competitive advantage from distribution rights to successful brand development [4] Group 3: White Liquor Market Dynamics - The overall value of sauce-flavored white liquor has surpassed 21,554.5 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 3.72%, although the growth rate has significantly slowed [8] - New brands like Rongda Sauce Liquor have shown exceptional performance, with a value increase of 90.1%, highlighting innovation within the category [8] - The growth of clear-flavored white liquor has been driven by brands like Fenjiu, contributing over 60% of the category's growth in recent years [8] Group 4: Beer and Wine Market Challenges - For the first time in 17 years, the top beer brands, including China Resources Beer and Qingdao Beer, have seen a decline in brand value [10] - The total brand value of the wine sector has decreased from 1999.15 billion yuan to 1911.71 billion yuan, a drop of 4.37%, reflecting ongoing adjustments in the market [10] - The wine industry has faced challenges from imported wines and changing consumer preferences, leading to a significant slowdown in growth rates [10]

Core Viewpoint - The liquor sector shows signs of recovery, with mixed performance among individual stocks, indicating a complex market environment influenced by various consumption scenarios and price segments [1] Industry Summary - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3863.89 points, up 0.63%, while the liquor sector index closed at 2278.16 points, up 0.84%, with 13 liquor stocks rising [1] - The high-end liquor segment is experiencing a weak recovery in demand during the peak season, while the mass-market segment is performing well, leading the industry [1] - The next-highest price segment is under pressure, showing significant differentiation in performance [1] - Current industry inventory levels are stabilizing, with some liquor companies reducing inventory to alleviate operational pressure [1] Company Summary - Kweichow Moutai's stock closed at 1457.93 CNY per share, up 0.20% [1] - Wuliangye's stock closed at 120.46 CNY per share, down 0.50% [1] - Shanxi Fenjiu's stock closed at 191.57 CNY per share, down 2.21% [1] - Luzhou Laojiao's stock closed at 133.15 CNY per share, down 1.37% [1] - Yanghe Brewery's stock closed at 70.18 CNY per share, up 0.26% [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the liquor industry [1] Core Insights - The report analyzes the adjustment phases of the liquor industry, comparing the current phase with the 2013-2016 period, highlighting that the current adjustment is primarily driven by a decline in business demand, which is less severe than the previous round [3] - It emphasizes that the purchasing power of consumers for high-end liquor has significantly improved compared to the lowest price point in 2014, indicating a potential for market recovery [3] - The report identifies three major changes in the liquor market: increased concentration among top companies, the rise of sauce-flavored liquor, and improved market value management practices among liquor companies [3] Summary by Sections 1. Historical Adjustment Phases - The liquor industry has entered a fifth year of adjustment since 2021, with significant impacts from the 2025 policy aimed at reducing government consumption [8] - The report reviews the historical context of the 2013-2016 adjustment, noting that the current environment is different but shares some similarities [8] 2. Current Adjustment Stage - The report indicates that the liquor industry has been in a downward adjustment since the third quarter of 2024, with expectations for recovery around the second quarter of 2026 [42] - It highlights that the current adjustment is less severe than the previous one, with a maximum revenue decline of 5% and profit decline of 8% compared to the previous maximums of 15% and 30% respectively [50] 3. Market Changes Impacting Investment - The concentration of the top six liquor companies has increased significantly, with their revenue share rising from 18.3% in 2013 to 48.1% in 2024, enhancing industry self-regulation [51] - The report notes that the expansion of sauce-flavored liquor production capacity has not yet translated into revenue share, but it is expected to gain traction in the future [3] - It discusses the evolving market value management strategies among liquor companies, including increased dividend payouts and share buybacks, which are expected to enhance investor returns [3]

Core Points - Wuliangye has been awarded the "EFQM Global Award" with a seven-star certification, the highest honor in the EFQM excellence recognition system, marking a significant achievement for Chinese enterprises [1][5][6] - This award sets a new benchmark for excellence in management within the Chinese liquor industry and highlights the brand's alignment with global sustainable development principles [2][6] Group 1: Award Significance - The award signifies Wuliangye's role in establishing a new standard for excellence in the Chinese liquor industry, showcasing the brand's commitment to sustainable development [2][6] - Wuliangye was one of only 14 companies globally recognized for outstanding performance out of over 200 evaluated, representing the highest management standards worldwide [7] Group 2: Management Practices - Wuliangye achieved this recognition through five key areas: cultivating a harmonious corporate culture, leading ecosystem development, aligning strategy with performance metrics, balancing tradition with innovation, and promoting ESG-oriented scalable growth [4][8] - The company is noted for integrating the "harmonious beauty" philosophy deeply into its organizational DNA, extending its impact beyond internal operations to the entire ecosystem [8] Group 3: Sustainable Practices - Wuliangye has implemented a four-circular economy system focusing on soil, heat, water, and electricity, achieving significant energy savings and reducing greenhouse gas emissions [12] - The company has initiated various sustainable practices, including a rooftop solar plan and a biomass power generation project, aiming to further reduce its carbon footprint [12][13] Group 4: Cultural and Global Engagement - During the EFQM event, Wuliangye hosted a forum to share its sustainable management practices and launched the "Harmonious Beauty Global Tour" in Spain, promoting Chinese quality management to international consumers [2][15] - The company emphasizes the importance of local culture and environment in its production processes, aligning with its commitment to sustainability and quality [10][14] Group 5: Future Directions - Wuliangye plans to continue adhering to its quality-driven philosophy while driving management innovation and industry upgrades, aiming to enhance its global presence and showcase the excellence of Chinese brands [20]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the industry, indicating a focus on sectors with good performance and potential recovery in demand [3]. Core Insights - The liquor sector is experiencing a gradual improvement in sales dynamics, with a continued focus on clearing inventory. The report suggests that when performance no longer declines, it will signal a potential recovery in stock prices [7][13]. - The food sector shows a divergence in performance, with new consumption categories maintaining good momentum while traditional categories face weaker demand. The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the recovery in traditional consumption [21][31]. Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - Sales dynamics in Q3 improved compared to May-June, but the report anticipates continued inventory clearance with a double-digit year-on-year decline expected. The demand from government and business sectors remains under pressure, while the banquet and mass consumption markets are relatively stable [7][13]. - Major brands like Moutai and Wuliangye are expected to see varied performance, with Moutai projected to achieve a 4% increase in revenue year-on-year, while Wuliangye may experience an 8% decline [14][16]. Food Sector - The overall demand environment in Q3 was relatively weak, with retail sales growth slowing down. However, sectors like snacks and beverages continue to show good performance, while traditional categories like seasonings and beer remain subdued [21][31]. - The report highlights that raw material costs are generally declining, but the trend is slowing down. Packaging prices have increased, impacting profit margins across various segments [24][25]. - Specific companies such as Yili and Mengniu are facing growth pressures, while new dairy companies are expected to maintain strong growth due to structural improvements [31][35]. Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on sectors with good performance, such as snacks and beverages, while also keeping an eye on traditional consumption recovery. Specific stock recommendations include West Wheat Foods in the snack sector and leading liquor brands like Shanxi Fenjiu and Luzhou Laojiao [10][11].

Group 1 - The Tianhong Food and Beverage ETF (159736) has seen significant capital inflow, with 17 out of the last 20 trading days recording net inflows, totaling over 27 million yuan last week [1] - The ETF closely tracks the CSI Food and Beverage Index, which includes major companies in the beverage, packaged food, and meat sectors, with top holdings including Kweichow Moutai, Yili, and Wuliangye [2] - The Tianhong A500 ETF (159360) has also performed well, with a 0.58% increase and a trading volume exceeding 44 million yuan, indicating strong market interest [2] Group 2 - Kweichow Moutai is launching a new digital service for consumers to select production dates for their purchases of the Snake Year Moutai, enhancing customer engagement [3] - Various provinces, including Hunan, are distributing consumption vouchers totaling 100 million yuan to stimulate consumer spending in key sectors such as dining and fuel [3] - The upcoming Double 11 shopping festival on Tmall has shown promising early results, with significant sales figures indicating strong consumer interest [3] Group 3 - The food and beverage index has experienced a recovery in early October, with snacks, beer, and health products leading the gains, suggesting a potential continuation of this trend [4] - The market is expected to focus on Q3 earnings reports, with companies in the new consumption sector likely to show strong performance [4] - Looking ahead to Q4 2025, there are two key areas of focus: the year-end valuation shift and the potential for cyclical recovery as PPI improvements begin to affect CPI [4]

Core Viewpoint - The stock market showed a collective increase on October 20, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.69% to 3866.09 points, indicating positive market sentiment and performance in various sectors, particularly the liquor industry [1] Industry Summary - The liquor sector closed at 2272.85 points, up by 0.6%, with 14 liquor stocks experiencing gains [1] - Major liquor companies showed mixed performance: Kweichow Moutai closed at 1460.79 CNY per share, up by 0.40%; Wuliangye closed at 120.73 CNY per share, down by 0.28%; Shanxi Fenjiu closed at 192.60 CNY per share, down by 1.68%; Luzhou Laojiao closed at 133.70 CNY per share [1] Company Insights - According to a report from GF Securities, the progress of dealer payments suggests that most manufacturers are relaxing their payment requirements or no longer enforcing mandatory payments, which is expected to benefit leading brands in the industry [1]