Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai real estate market is entering a critical phase as developers actively launch new projects to boost annual sales performance, with a significant focus on high-end residential properties [1][2]. Group 1: New Project Launches - In mid-December, Shanghai announced 16 new residential projects with a total of 1,679 units, located across various districts including Pudong, Huangpu, and Xuhui [1]. - Among these, five high-end residential projects are priced above 100,000 yuan per square meter, with the highest being "Anlan Shanghai" at an average price of 178,800 yuan per square meter [1]. - On December 20, an additional six new projects were launched, totaling 556 units, with half of them being high-end properties [2]. Group 2: Market Performance and Trends - "Anlan Shanghai," a notable project, achieved a subscription rate of 139% shortly after its launch, indicating strong market interest and triggering sales restrictions [2][3]. - The marketing center for "Anlan Shanghai" has received over 3,000 visits, reflecting high demand in the luxury segment [3]. - The overall luxury market in Shanghai has seen a slight decrease in heat compared to previous periods, but the introduction of new high-end projects is expected to stabilize market sentiment and boost sales [5][6]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - "Anlan Shanghai" is positioned in a competitive area, facing challenges from nearby projects such as "Green City Huangpu ONE" and "Jiabai Road Shanghai" [4]. - The competitive nature of the luxury market in Shanghai is underscored by the aggressive pricing and marketing strategies employed by developers [4]. Group 4: Sales and Financial Insights - As of December 15, 2023, approximately 1,300 luxury units priced over 40 million yuan have been sold in Shanghai, totaling over 80 billion yuan in sales [6]. - The market is expected to see a steady increase in transactions in the latter half of December, driven by the launch of popular projects and improved buyer sentiment [6].

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 2025年1-11月，百城宅地成交建面同比-15%，成交楼面均价同比+9% 2025年1-11月，百城成交住宅类用地建面为2.21亿平，累计同比-15.1%；成交楼面均价为6,295元/平方米， 累计同比+9.4%。分能级城市来看，1-11月， 一线城市：供应住宅类用地建面为1,041万平，累计同比-29.6%；成交建面778万平，累计同比-28.7%；成 交楼面均价为39,283元/平方米，累计同比+29.5%。 2025年1-11月，新增土储价值排名前三的房企为中海地产（962亿元）、华润置地（757亿元）、招商蛇口 （754亿元）。 2025年1-11月，新增土储面积排名前三的房企为中海地产（438万平）、保利发展（36 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for the real estate sector [5] Core Insights - In the first 11 months of 2025, the transaction area of residential land in 100 cities decreased by 15% year-on-year, while the average transaction floor price increased by 9% year-on-year [1][20] - The top three companies in terms of new land reserve value from January to November 2025 are China Overseas Land & Investment (COLI) with 96.2 billion yuan, China Resources Land with 75.7 billion yuan, and China Merchants Shekou with 75.4 billion yuan [2][89] - The core 30 cities saw a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 5% in residential land transaction area, but a 13% increase in average transaction price [2][3] Summary by Sections Land Supply and Demand - In the first 11 months of 2025, the total supply of land in 100 cities decreased by 11.9% year-on-year, with a total transaction area of 10.68 billion square meters [10] - The supply of residential land in 100 cities for January to November 2025 was 348 million square meters, down 16.5% year-on-year, while the transaction area was 221 million square meters, down 15.1% year-on-year [20][1] Land Transaction Prices - The average transaction floor price for residential land in 100 cities increased by 9.4% year-on-year, reaching 6,295 yuan per square meter [1][55] - In November 2025, the average transaction price for residential land in first-tier cities was 39,283 yuan per square meter, up 29.5% year-on-year [66] Top 50 Real Estate Companies' Land Acquisition - The top 50 real estate companies saw a cumulative year-on-year increase of 22.1% in new land reserve value, totaling 861.8 billion yuan from January to November 2025 [81] - The top three companies in terms of new land reserve area were China Overseas Land & Investment (4.38 million square meters), Poly Developments (3.63 million square meters), and China Merchants Shekou (3.14 million square meters) [89] Core 30 Cities Land Transaction Situation - In November 2025, the core 30 cities recorded a total of 208 residential land transactions, with a total area of 1.529 million square meters, down 14.4% year-on-year [94] - The overall premium rate for land transactions in the core 30 cities was 2.2%, down 4.1 percentage points year-on-year [94] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong brand reputation and sales performance in core cities, recommending Poly Developments, China Merchants Shekou, and China Jinmao [4][117] - It also highlights the potential of companies with rich existing resources and operational brand competitiveness, recommending China Resources Land and Shanghai Lingang [4][117] - The report sees long-term growth potential in property services, recommending companies like China Merchants Jiyu and China Resources Vientiane Life [4][117]

Company Dynamics - China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co., Ltd. and Qidong Zhongchengxin Development and Construction Co., Ltd. have jointly established Qidong Zhaocheng Construction Development Co., Ltd. with a registered capital of 300 million yuan [1] - The business scope of the new company includes construction engineering, real estate development, property management, management services for commercial complexes, housing leasing, and non-residential real estate leasing [1]

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 National Top Ten Works selection process has commenced, with public voting starting from December 19 to December 25, 2023, following expert evaluations held on December 18-19, 2023 [1][3]. Group 1: Voting Process and Categories - The public voting phase allows participants to select their preferred high-end, light luxury, and quality residential products, with each individual allowed to vote once per category and select up to ten projects [12]. - The final results will be based on the cumulative valid votes from all participants, and the winners will be announced in early January 2026 [11]. Group 2: Evaluation and Selection - The evaluation process includes expert reviews, public voting, and assessment models, which will determine the final rankings for the "National Top Ten High-end/Light Luxury/Quality Works" and the "China Good House Comprehensive Award/Individual Awards" [11]. - The "Product Power 100" research initiative has been ongoing since 2018, focusing on enhancing product quality and addressing housing pain points in the real estate sector [11]. Group 3: Featured Projects - Various projects have been highlighted, including: - Nanning Bangtai·Lan Jing, a modern high-rise residential development by Bangtai Group [15]. - Shanghai Haishang Yuanshu, featuring modern oriental architecture by Guomao Real Estate and Songjiang Investment [17]. - Zhuhai Huafa Tianxi, a modern residential project by China Resources Land [19]. - Beijing Jingyue Chang'an, showcasing a modern aesthetic by Houtai Group and Jindi Group [26]. - These projects represent a diverse range of architectural styles and residential offerings, emphasizing quality and modern living [15][17][19][26].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [4] Core Insights - The report emphasizes that there is significant potential for high-quality development in China's real estate sector, driven by both rigid and improvement housing demands. The urbanization rate for permanent residents is projected to reach 67% by 2024, while the registered population urbanization rate is below 50%, indicating ongoing housing demand [11][12] - A new model for real estate development is being proposed, focusing on controlling supply, revitalizing existing stock, and encouraging the transformation of real estate companies. This includes reforms in development, financing, and sales systems to facilitate a smooth transition from old to new models [12][4] - The report highlights that the real estate sector serves as an early economic indicator, suggesting that investing in real estate stocks is akin to investing in economic trends. The focus remains on first-tier and select second-tier cities, which are expected to perform better in terms of sales [4][12] Summary by Sections Central Economic Work Conference Insights - The central government outlines the need for high-quality development in real estate, addressing both rigid and improvement demands. The report notes that many urban residents are still unsatisfied with their housing conditions, indicating a strong potential for improvement demand [11][12] Market Review - The report notes that the Shenwan Real Estate Index decreased by 0.4% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.13 percentage points, ranking 24th among 31 Shenwan primary industries. A total of 71 stocks rose, while 40 fell [13][4] New and Second-Hand Housing Transactions - In the latest week, 30 cities recorded new housing transaction areas of 208.7 million square meters, a 19.9% increase month-on-month but a 42.7% decrease year-on-year. First-tier cities accounted for 54.1 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 14.3% and a year-on-year decrease of 36.9% [24][26] - For second-hand housing, 14 sample cities saw a total transaction area of 200.4 million square meters, a 2.0% increase month-on-month but a 24.8% decrease year-on-year [30] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on real estate-related stocks due to the anticipated policy support and the improving competitive landscape. Key stocks to watch include major developers and companies involved in property management and brokerage services [4][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors, highlighting optimism for the valuation reassessment of shopping centers and the new opportunities in the housing market [2]. Core Insights - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development emphasizes the transition of the real estate industry from high-speed growth to high-quality development, focusing on product quality and service enhancement while maintaining market balance [2][26]. - Recent data shows a rebound in new and second-hand home transactions, with new home sales in 34 key cities reaching 3.095 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 26.3% [2][3]. - The report identifies two major opportunities: the rise of favorable housing policies and the strong performance of quality commercial enterprises amid a monetary easing cycle, which could lead to a reassessment of consumer-oriented commercial real estate assets [2]. Industry Data Summary New Home Transactions - In the week of December 13-19, 2025, new home sales in 34 key cities totaled 3.095 million square meters, up 26.3% week-on-week, with first and second-tier cities increasing by 24.6% and third and fourth-tier cities by 50.5% [3][5]. - Year-to-date, new home sales in December show a 30% year-on-year decline, with first and second-tier cities down 29.4% and third and fourth-tier cities down 38.8% [5][6]. Second-Hand Home Transactions - In the same week, second-hand home sales in 13 key cities reached 1.192 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 6.4%, but a year-on-year decline of 32.9% for December [11][12]. Inventory and Supply - In the week of December 13-19, 2025, 15 key cities launched 1.28 million square meters of new homes, with a sales-to-launch ratio of 0.83, indicating a slight improvement in inventory management [20][21]. Policy and News Tracking - The report highlights the central government's commitment to stabilizing the real estate market through three main measures: controlling supply, promoting enterprise transformation, and reforming foundational systems [26][29]. - Local governments, such as Shenzhen and Shandong, are implementing targeted policies to mitigate financial risks and stimulate housing demand through initiatives like "old-for-new" housing exchanges [26][30]. Company Updates - Poly Developments plans to issue 8.5 billion yuan in convertible bonds, while Vanke's proposals for extending medium-term notes were not approved [36][37]. - Yuexiu Property secured a 50 million HKD loan from a bank, with a maximum term of 18 months [36].

房地产行业|证券研究报告—行业月报 2025 年 12 月 21 日 强于大市 房地产行业 2025 年 11 月月报 11 月新房成交同比降幅扩大，二手房成交同比降幅收窄；中央经济 工作会议指出"稳地产、去库存"，预期 26 年地产政策空间打开 核心观点 【新房成交】 【二手房成交】 【新房库存与去化】 【土地市场】 【房企】 【政策】 【板块收益】 11 月新房成交面积环比由正转负、同比降幅扩大。11 月 40 城新房成交面积环比-6.8%，同比-40.7%，同比降幅较 10 月扩大 13.9pct，1-11 月累计同比-11.5%。我们认为，影响居民购房能力及购房意愿的收入与就业预期尚未根本性扭转，市场信心仍然不 足，叠加去年 12 月销售的基数也相对较高，全年地产市场压力很难缓解。 从各能级城市来看，11 月一、二、三四线城市新房成交面积同比降幅均扩大。1）一线城市：11 月新房成交面积环比+4.5%，同比-43.5%， 同比降幅较 10 月扩大 5.2pct；1-11 月累计同比-13.8%。具体来看，11 月北京新房成交面积环比-34%，同比-54%；上海环比+31%，同比- 22%；广州环比-1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate sector [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a rebound in sales in Guangzhou due to the promotion of prefabricated buildings, with a week-on-week increase in sales despite a year-on-year decline [1][6] - The overall market performance remains weak, with the Shenwan Real Estate Index down by 0.41% and the CSI 300 Index down by 0.28%, indicating underperformance relative to the broader market [3][11] Summary by Sections Weekly Market Review - The Shenwan Real Estate Index decreased by 0.41%, while the CSI 300 Index fell by 0.28%, resulting in a relative return of -0.13% [3][11] - The report notes that the performance of the real estate sector is weaker than the overall market [3][11] Industry Fundamentals - For the week of December 12-18, 38 tracked cities saw a total of 29,303 new homes sold, a year-on-year decrease of 31.9% but a week-on-week increase of 8% [4][19] - The total transaction area for new homes was 3.19 million square meters, with a year-on-year decline of 29.6% but a week-on-week increase of 21% [4][19] - In the same week, 16 tracked cities recorded 18,668 second-hand homes sold, down 23% year-on-year but up 1.5% week-on-week [34][37] - The total transaction area for second-hand homes was 181.8 million square meters, with a year-on-year decline of 26.1% and a week-on-week increase of 5.7% [34][37] Land Market Supply and Transactions - In the week of December 8-14, land supply was 2,056.8 million square meters, down 55.1% year-on-year, with an average supply price of 1,053 yuan per square meter, down 38.5% year-on-year [5] - Land transactions totaled 8,132.5 million square meters, up 53.5% year-on-year, with a transaction amount of 135.41 billion yuan, up 55.9% year-on-year [5] Financing Analysis - Real estate companies issued a total of 5.33 billion yuan in credit bonds, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 39.34% and a week-on-week decrease of 64.51% [5] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on financially stable and well-performing leading real estate companies such as Yuexiu Property, China Merchants Shekou, Poly Developments, and others, which are expected to effectively respond to market fluctuations [6] - It also notes that property management companies may see performance and valuation recovery as market demand rebounds, recommending attention to companies like China Resources Vanke and Poly Property [6]

Meeting Information - The company will hold its second extraordinary general meeting of shareholders in 2025 on December 24, 2025, at 2:30 PM [2] - The meeting will combine on-site voting and online voting to facilitate shareholder participation [3] - The meeting is convened by the company's board of directors and complies with relevant laws and regulations [1] Voting Details - The online voting will be available on December 24, 2025, with specific time slots for voting through the Shenzhen Stock Exchange trading system and internet voting system [2][3] - The record date for shareholders to participate in the meeting is December 16, 2025 [4] - Shareholders can delegate representatives to attend the meeting and vote if they cannot attend in person [4][5] Registration Process - Registration for the meeting requires specific documents for both corporate and individual shareholders [10] - Registration will be open from December 17 to December 23, 2025 [11] - The registration location is specified as the company's headquarters in Shenzhen [12] Voting Procedures - The meeting will include a cumulative voting system for the election of one non-independent director [8] - Shareholders can allocate their voting rights among candidates but cannot exceed their total voting power [8][9] - Detailed voting procedures for both trading system and internet voting are provided [24][25] Contact Information - The company provides contact details for inquiries related to the meeting [16]