证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 】 2025 04 13 年 月 日 煤炭开采 3 重倒挂助煤价以时间换空间，"中特煤"以行动书写担当 行情回顾（2025.4.7~2025.4.11）： 基本面方面，我们持续强调"把握行业本质属性，坚定信心、坚守定力"。 "一利稳定增长，五率持续优化"，着力提高央企控股上市公司质量，强化投资者回 报。 中信煤炭指数 3,157.77 点，下跌 5.04%，跑输沪深 300 指数 2.16pct，位列中信板 块涨跌幅榜第 16 位。 本周两大煤炭央企发声"积极支持控股上市公司高质量发展"。此外，多部委机构打 出稳市组合拳，场外增量资金充足，我们认为"财务报表优异，低资本开支&现金流 充裕，具备高分红、高股息的央企"尤为受益。 考虑到煤价属周期波动，煤炭企业或通过加大成本管控力度，保证企业效益稳步提 升。以神华、中煤两大央企为例，在 24 年煤价中枢明显下移的背景下，其业绩降幅 显著低于煤价降幅，降本增效成效显著，诚意满满。 加大回购注销、分红力度，推动资产注入，延伸产业链布局均是提高 ROE 的方向。 重点领域分析： 增持（维持） 行业走势 -30% -2 ...

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for key coal enterprises such as China Shenhua and China Coal Energy, highlighting their strong financial performance and potential for high dividends [8][10]. Core Viewpoints - The coal industry is experiencing a cyclical downturn, but companies are focusing on cost control and operational efficiency to maintain profitability. Major state-owned enterprises like Shenhua and China Coal have shown a significant reduction in performance decline compared to coal price drops, indicating effective cost management [3][8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining investor confidence through high-quality development and asset integration within state-owned enterprises [2][3]. - The current coal prices are seen as bottoming out, with expectations of benefiting from domestic policies aimed at stabilizing growth and increasing domestic demand [2][8]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The CITIC Coal Index decreased by 5.04% during the week of April 7-11, 2025, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.16 percentage points [1][75]. - The report notes that the coal market is currently in a phase of narrow fluctuations, with supply stability and limited demand growth impacting price movements [11][33]. Key Company Analysis - China Shenhua's coal production cost for 2024 is reported at 179 RMB/ton, remaining stable year-on-year, while China Coal Energy's cost is 282 RMB/ton, down 25 RMB/ton from the previous year [6][8]. - Both companies are expected to increase share buybacks and dividends, enhancing shareholder returns [8][10]. Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the coal market is characterized by a seasonal downturn, with limited demand from power plants and a shift towards cleaner energy sources impacting coal consumption [11][33]. - The report highlights that the focus on cost control and operational efficiency is crucial for maintaining profitability amid fluctuating coal prices [3][8]. Price Trends - As of April 11, 2025, the price of Qinhuangdao port Q5500 thermal coal is reported at 676 RMB/ton, showing stability week-on-week [11][33]. - The report anticipates that coal prices will remain under pressure due to weak demand and high inventory levels, but significant price drops are not expected in the short term [11][33].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - Copper prices rebounded after a significant drop, with attention on the ongoing US-China trade dynamics and recession expectations in the US. The weekly performance showed US copper up 3.75%, London copper up 2.97%, and Shanghai copper down 4.6%. The decline in copper prices led to increased downstream activity and accelerated inventory depletion, with copper rod operating rates at 74.76%, up 0.21 percentage points week-on-week. Social inventory of electrolytic copper decreased by 14.80% to 267,200 tons, while Shanghai copper inventory fell by 18.96% to 182,900 tons. Short-term price rebounds may be limited by US recession expectations, with key focus areas being US-China trade developments, US economic and inflation data, and Federal Reserve interest rate expectations. Recommended stocks include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Jincheng Mining, and Tongling Nonferrous Metals [4] - Aluminum prices fell due to tariff impacts, with signs of weakening demand in the peak season and continued inventory depletion. The alumina market remains oversupplied, with prices dropping 5.12% to 2,870 RMB/ton. The operating capacity of alumina plants decreased by 1.91 million tons to 84.82 million tons/year. Electrolytic aluminum prices fell 3.72% to 19,675 RMB/ton, with profit margins down 15.54% to 3,650 RMB/ton. Overall, the supply side of electrolytic aluminum shows no increase in capacity, leading to a potential shortage this year, which could drive aluminum prices up significantly. Recommended stocks include Hongchuang Holdings, Yun Aluminum, Tianshan Aluminum, Shenhuo Co., and China Aluminum [4] - Lithium prices continued to decline, with carbonate lithium down 3.11% to 71,600 RMB/ton. The supply side remains oversupplied, with inventory increasing by 1.3% to 131,000 tons. Demand growth is hindered by tariff impacts on downstream exports, with expectations for a narrowing of the oversupply throughout the year. Recommended stocks include Yahua Group, Zhongjin Lingnan, Yongxing Materials, and Ganfeng Lithium [4] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The US March CPI was lower than expected at 2.4%, with initial jobless claims matching expectations at 223,000 [8] 2. Industrial Metals 2.1. Copper - London copper rose 2.97%, while Shanghai copper fell 4.60%. Inventory levels decreased significantly, with Shanghai copper inventory down 18.96% [21][24] 2.2. Aluminum - London aluminum increased by 0.50%, while Shanghai aluminum decreased by 3.72%. The operating profit for aluminum companies fell by 15.54% [33] 2.3. Lead and Zinc - London lead prices fell 0.57%, while Shanghai lead prices decreased by 2.44%. London zinc prices rose 0.34%, but Shanghai zinc prices fell 2.36% [48] 2.4. Tin and Nickel - London tin prices dropped 12.17%, and Shanghai tin prices fell 13.22%. Nickel prices also saw a decline [61] 3. Energy Metals 3.1. Lithium - Lithium carbonate prices fell 3.11% to 71,600 RMB/ton, with continued oversupply in the market [77] 3.2. Cobalt - Overseas MB cobalt prices increased by 0.16% to 15.88 USD/pound, while domestic cobalt prices fell [88]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the coal mining industry [2] Core Views - The coal price is currently at a bottom level, and there is no need for pessimism [1] - The market is becoming more sensitive to marginal positive news as the negative impact of price drops diminishes [1] - Leading coal companies have reported better-than-expected performance, with significant cost reduction and efficiency improvements [1] Industry Analysis - The CITIC Coal Index was at 3,325.2 points, up 0.55%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 1.92 percentage points, ranking 6th in the CITIC sector [1][71] - The coal market is expected to benefit from domestic policies aimed at stabilizing growth and expanding domestic demand [1] - The Newcastle coal futures price on April 4 was reported at $97 per ton, down 4% from $101 per ton on April 2 [1] - The domestic coal price has reached the anticipated bottom, with the largest price drops and speed of decline now behind [1] - The supply of low-calorie coal has slightly increased, while medium to high-calorie coal remains stable [1] - As of April 4, the price of North Port thermal coal was reported at 676 yuan per ton, stable week-on-week [1] - The report emphasizes that while the thermal coal market is entering a traditional off-season, the current prices are at the expected bottom range of 650-686 yuan per ton, and there is no need for excessive pessimism [1] Key Companies - China Shenhua (601088.SH): Buy rating, EPS forecast for 2024A is 2.95 yuan, PE ratio is 12.40 [7] - Shaanxi Coal (601225.SH): Buy rating, EPS forecast for 2025E is 2.26 yuan, PE ratio is 8.88 [7] - New Energy (601918.SH): Buy rating, EPS forecast for 2024A is 0.92 yuan, PE ratio is 7.50 [7] - Jinkong Coal (601001.SH): Buy rating, EPS forecast for 2025E is 1.53 yuan, PE ratio is 7.92 [7] - China Coal Energy (601898.SH): Buy rating, EPS forecast for 2024A is 1.46 yuan, PE ratio is 7.00 [7] - Electric Investment Energy (002128.SZ): Buy rating, EPS forecast for 2024A is 2.49 yuan, PE ratio is 8.50 [7] - Pingmei Shenma (601666.SH): Increase rating, EPS forecast for 2025E is 0.50 yuan, PE ratio is 17.30 [7] - Huai Bei Mining (600985.SH): Buy rating, EPS forecast for 2024A is 1.80 yuan, PE ratio is 7.70 [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report emphasizes the importance of coal as a defensive asset amid unexpected U.S. tariffs, highlighting the need for a balanced approach in coal investments [1][4] - The coal market is currently in a bottoming phase, with potential for price stabilization and rebound supported by various factors including long-term contract price ceilings and self-rescue actions by coal companies [3][4] - The report suggests that the coal sector is entering a new phase of investment opportunities, driven by macroeconomic policies and capital market support [4][12] Summary by Sections Investment Logic - The coal sector is viewed as a stable dividend investment due to weak domestic economic performance and external pressures from U.S. tariff policies, with insurance funds starting new allocations in coal [4][12] - The cyclical elasticity of coal stocks is expected to improve as supply-demand fundamentals continue to enhance, particularly after the March Two Sessions and the arrival of the spring construction season [4][12] Key Market Indicators - The coal sector saw a slight increase of 0.6%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.97 percentage points [7][9] - The current PE ratio for the coal sector is 10.6, and the PB ratio is 1.22, indicating relatively low valuations compared to other sectors [9][12] Coal Price Trends - Port coal prices have stabilized, with CCTD Q5500 coal priced at 676 CNY/ton, remaining unchanged week-on-week [3][15] - The inventory at ports has decreased, with the total inventory in the Bohai Rim area at 30.271 million tons, down 3.08% from the previous week [3][15] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The operating rate of coal mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia remains steady at 82.1% [3][15] - Daily coal consumption by coastal power plants has decreased to 1.844 million tons, a drop of 3.96% [3][15] Company Performance and Recommendations - Selected coal stocks are expected to benefit from the current market conditions, with recommendations for companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy based on their dividend potential [4][12][13] - The report highlights the importance of capital inflows from industry players, indicating a recognition of the current value bottom in the coal sector [4][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the coal mining industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal price at ports has stabilized, and the investment value of leading coal companies is emphasized [2][4] - The supply constraints in the coal mining industry remain unchanged, while demand may fluctuate, leading to price dynamics and rebalancing [7][74] - The report highlights the strong cash flow and high asset quality of leading coal companies, characterized by high profitability, high cash flow, high barriers to entry, high dividends, and high safety margins [7][74] Summary by Sections 1. Thermal Coal - Port inventory continues to decrease, and port prices have stabilized [10][13] - The production side shows stable supply, with a slight decrease in capacity utilization in the main production areas [13][21] - Demand has improved, with increased daily consumption in coastal and inland power plants [13][24] - The average daily coal input at ports has decreased, leading to a reduction in northern port inventories [29][33] 2. Coking Coal - Production continues to contract, with a decrease in capacity utilization due to previous production issues [39][73] - Demand has improved, with rising daily iron output and reduced inventory at coking enterprises [39][73] - The overall supply-demand situation for coking coal has improved, with a decrease in production enterprise inventory [39][73] 3. Coke - The market anticipates price increases for coke after the Qingming Festival, with rising production rates in coking plants [52][73] - The average profit per ton of coke has decreased, indicating a challenging profitability environment [54][73] 4. Anthracite - The price of anthracite remains stable, with high operating rates in major production areas [68][74] 5. Key Companies and Profit Forecasts - The report identifies key companies to focus on, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and Yanzhou Coal Mining Company, among others, with strong investment recommendations [8][75] - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for various companies, indicating their investment potential [8][75]

Summary of Coal Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The coal industry is experiencing significant pressure in Q1 2025 due to a sharp decline in spot prices, impacting profitability across most companies [3][4][10] - The average price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port fell to 722 RMB, a year-on-year decrease of nearly 20% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of about 12% [3][4] - Coking coal prices at Jintang Port averaged 1,443 RMB, reflecting a year-on-year drop of 40% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of approximately 15% [3][4] Key Points - The decline in coal prices was unexpected, with long-term contract prices remaining relatively stable, showing only a 2.6% year-on-year decrease [4][5] - New Hope Energy outperformed due to increased calorific value, power generation growth, and electricity price compensation, while leading coking coal companies like Shanxi Coking Coal and Pingmei faced negative impacts from falling spot prices [4][6] - National raw coal monthly average production increased by 4% year-on-year but decreased by 10% quarter-on-quarter, with Shanxi showing significant growth while production in Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia declined [4][7] Company Performance - Major companies like Shaanxi Coal, China Shenhua, Yanzhou Coal, and China Coal are expected to see a year-on-year decline in Q1 performance, but overall stability is anticipated [4][8] - Yanzhou Coal is projected to have a growth potential for the year, benefiting from internal growth, increased production in the Shaanxi region, and new mines coming online [4][9] - New Hope Energy is expected to report Q1 earnings of 5.5 to 6.5 billion RMB, maintaining stable performance despite the challenging environment [11] Market Outlook - In the short term, coal prices may bottom out in Q2, but the rate of decline is expected to slow, with the market becoming more sensitive to positive news [4][12] - The coal sector may achieve excess returns due to marginal improvements in supply and demand, risk release from Q1 reports, and upcoming stock registration dates [4][12] - Long-term investment in the coal sector remains attractive, with stable dividend yields from leading companies and a focus on growth potential in companies like Electric Power Investment and New Hope Energy [13] Coking Coal Sector - The coking coal sector shows signs of short-term improvement, with potential for price rebounds due to faster recovery in iron and steel production [14] - Recommendations include prioritizing Huabei Mining for its better safety margins and lower valuations, while Pingmei is suggested for its dividend potential and cost reduction efforts in 2025 [14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the coal industry [10] Core Viewpoints - The coal price has experienced unexpected declines in the first quarter, leading to a year-on-year profit drop for most companies. However, companies with a higher proportion of long-term contracts, benefiting from improved calorific value and increased electricity generation, such as Xinji Energy, are expected to perform relatively well [2][7] - Despite the seasonal decline in coal demand post-heating season and high port inventories, the report suggests that the negative factors affecting coal stocks may gradually diminish, recommending a proactive approach towards the coal sector [6][24] Summary by Sections Price Trends - As of March 28, 2025, the average price of Qinhuangdao port Q5500 thermal coal was 722 CNY/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 19.9% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 12.2%. The long-term contract price remained more stable at 690 CNY/ton, down 2.6% year-on-year and 1.1% quarter-on-quarter [7][14] - The average price of Shanxi main coking coal at Jing Tang port was 1443 CNY/ton, reflecting a significant year-on-year decline of 40.2% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 15.4% [15] Production and Sales - In the first two months of 2025, the average monthly coal production in China was 38 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4%. However, production decreased by 10% compared to the previous quarter [7][17] - Major coal companies like China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal & Energy reported varied production changes, with Shenhua's production down 2.6% year-on-year and Shaanxi's up 9.4% [17] Profitability Forecast - The report anticipates that key coal companies will see an average profit decline of 7% to 17% year-on-year in Q1 2025, while a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3% to 16% is expected [7][8] - Xinji Energy is highlighted as a company likely to maintain stable performance due to its long-term contracts and operational efficiencies [2][8] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a marginal allocation strategy focusing on high-quality leaders with stable profits, such as China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal, as well as growth-oriented companies like Electric Power Investment and Xinji Energy [8]

内蒙古电投能源股份有限公司第八届董事会 第三次独立董事专门会议审核意见 根据《上市公司独立董事管理办法》《深圳证券交易所股票上市规则》 《深圳证券交易所上市公司自律监管指引第 1 号——主板上市公司规范 运作》及《内蒙古电投能源股份有限公司章程》《内蒙古电投能源股份有 限公司独立董事制度》等法律法规和规章制度的有关规定，内蒙古电投能 源股份有限公司（以下简称"电投能源"或"公司"）全体独立董事于 2025 年 3 月 24 日以通讯方式召开第八届董事会第三次独立董事专门会议，本 次会议应参加的独立董事四名，实际参加的独立董事四名。作为公司的独 立董事，对公司 2025 年第二次临时董事会相关审议事项发表审核意见如 下： 一、关于审议 2025 年度日常关联交易预计情况的议案 经审查，我们认为:公司及全资、控股子公司根据生产、经营与基础 建设需要，对拟发生的 2025 年度煤炭、铝产品及其他日常关联交易情况 进行了预计，关联交易事项包括购买商品、接受劳务、销售商品、提供劳 务、出租、承租车辆及房屋等类型。我们认为上述的关联交易事项属公司 生产经营事项，审议的各类关联交易均有明确的定价原则，交易遵循了公 平、公允 ...

内蒙古电投能源股份有限公司投资管理规定 第一章 总则 第四条 本规定所称投资，指公司及所属单位在境内、外， 将一定数量的货币、实物、股权、无形（包括土地使用权、技 术、数据等）资产等投入到某个企业、项目或对象，以取得一 定经济效益、社会效益的行为或活动。 — 1 — 本规定所称主业是指由集团公司确定的主要经营业务；非 主业是指主业以外的其他经营业务。 按投资性质划分，包括固定资产投资和股权投资。其中： 固定资产投资包括基本建设、更新改造、科研项目、数字化， 购置固定资产、无形资产等投资行为。股权投资包括为取得被 投资企业股权而发生的并购、参股等投资行为。 第五条 公司投资实行专业分类管理。按照投资方式、所 处境域及产业领域等，将投资划分为境内基本建设投资、境内 股权投资、境外投资、科研投资、数字化投资、固定资产更新 改造投资等。其中： （一）境内基本建设投资是指在境内开展的大中型基建投 资和小型基建投资行为。 大中型基建投资是指以扩大生产能力或工程效益为主要目 的，开展的建设工程及有关实体性投资行为，类型分为常规、 战略性、创新示范大中型基建投资项目。 第一条 为履行中央企业责任，落实国家"四个革命，一 个合 ...