Market Overview - The non-ferrous metal sector has seen a strong rebound, with the Shenwan Non-Ferrous Metal Index rising by 8.59% over the past two weeks, ranking fifth among 31 primary industries [7] - The market has shown significant structural differentiation, with small metals, precious metals, and new materials performing particularly well, while rare earths, copper, and aluminum have attracted substantial capital [1][2] Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices have strengthened, with COMEX gold closing at $3,516 per ounce, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 31.63%, while silver has risen by 35.88% [1][17] - The demand for gold from global central banks continues to rise, enhancing its financial attributes, leading to increased investment in companies like Shandong Gold, Zhongjin Gold, and Hunan Gold [1][17] Industrial Metals - Copper prices have shown a strong upward trend, with LME copper settling at $9,805 per ton, up 12.89% year-to-date, driven by expectations of increased infrastructure investment and demand from the renewable energy sector [2][23] - Aluminum prices are constrained by production capacity limits, with domestic electrolytic aluminum capacity reaching 44 million tons, while demand from the new energy sector remains robust [2][27] Rare Earths - The rare earth sector has experienced a strong performance, with the rare earth price index rising by 6.39% over the past two weeks and 37.44% year-to-date [2][41] - Recent policy changes have tightened supply controls, benefiting companies like China Rare Earth, Northern Rare Earth, and Shenghe Resources [2][41][55] Small Metals - The small metals sector has seen significant price increases, with black tungsten concentrate prices rising by 24.26% over the past two weeks and 75.52% year-to-date [3][30] - Tin prices have also increased due to raw material shortages and recovering semiconductor demand, benefiting companies like Tin Industry Co., Huaxi Nonferrous Metals, and Xingye Silver Tin [3][31] Energy Metals - The energy metals sector has shown mixed performance, with electrolytic cobalt prices rising by 1.33% over the past two weeks and 86.71% year-to-date, while lithium carbonate prices have decreased by 3.69% in the short term but remain positive year-to-date [3][47][49] - Companies like Zijin Mining, Ganfeng Lithium, and Huayou Cobalt are positioned well across multiple supply chains, benefiting from low inventory and downstream replenishment demand [3][47] Fund Flow and Market Sentiment - The non-ferrous metal ETF has seen record trading volumes, with significant inflows into rare earth and copper sectors, indicating strong market sentiment and recognition of the sector's growth potential [3][56] - The market is shifting towards low-valuation, high-growth segments, with leading companies benefiting from favorable conditions [3][56]

Market Overview - The small metals sector experienced a decline of 3.37% on September 3, with Zhangyuan Tungsten leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3813.56, down 1.16%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12472.0, down 0.65% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Notable performers included: - Huaxi Nonferrous (600301) with a closing price of 33.08, up 1.13% on a trading volume of 188,700 shares and a transaction value of 605 million [1] - Northern Rare Earth (600111) closed at 53.70, up 0.07% with a trading volume of 2,777,900 shares and a transaction value of 15.072 billion [1] - Conversely, significant declines were observed in: - Caoyuan Tungsten (002378) down 8.81% with a closing price of 14.49 and a transaction value of 2.26 billion [2] - China Rare Earth (000831) down 7.13% with a closing price of 57.17 and a transaction value of 7.763 billion [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The small metals sector saw a net outflow of 3.592 billion from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 3.34 billion [2][3] - The capital flow for key stocks included: - China Rare Earth (000831) with a net outflow of 886 million from institutional investors and a net inflow of 648 million from retail investors [3] - Zhangyuan Tungsten (002378) with a net outflow of 396 million from institutional investors and a net inflow of 280 million from retail investors [3]

Group 1: Mining Production and Resources - In the first half of 2025, the company produced 1,849.93 tons of tungsten concentrate (WO3 65%), a year-on-year increase of 3.24% [2] - The production of tin concentrate (100% metal content) was 426.12 tons, up 2.71% year-on-year [2] - Copper concentrate (100% metal content) production reached 180.61 tons, reflecting a 2.02% increase year-on-year [2] - The company completed the preparation of the "Tao Xikeng (Expanded) Mineral Resource Development and Utilization Plan" and submitted it for review [3] Group 2: Cost and Price Impact - Mining costs are influenced by geological conditions, ore grades, management levels, and labor costs, leading to variability across different mines [4] - The rise in tungsten concentrate prices positively impacts the company, but significant fluctuations in raw material prices could affect production costs and operational performance [5] Group 3: Sales Performance - In the first half of 2025, tungsten powder sales reached 2,657.83 tons, a year-on-year increase of 43.68% [6] - Sales of tungsten carbide powder were 2,975.12 tons, up 19.25% year-on-year [6] - Sales of hard alloys decreased by 7.17% to 573.92 tons, while thermal spray powder sales fell by 1.93% to 222.59 tons [6] Group 4: Subsidiary Performance - In the first half of 2025, Ganzhou Aoketai achieved operating revenue of 353.53 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.36% [7] - Sales revenue from hard alloy tools was 189.27 million yuan, up 2.26% year-on-year [7] - Sales revenue from bars increased by 28.30% to 143.40 million yuan [7] - Gaining profitability, Ganzhou Aoketai reported a net profit of 1.39 million yuan, recovering from a loss in the previous year [7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [2][4]. Core Viewpoints - The macroeconomic environment is favorable, with a continuous recovery during the peak season. The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has increased, and the domestic manufacturing PMI showed a slight rebound in August, indicating a good macro atmosphere. Various metal prices are expected to strengthen, particularly for rigid supply varieties like copper and aluminum [4][5]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The number of listed companies in the industry is 141, with a total market value of 40,523.71 billion and a circulating market value of 38,091.88 billion [2]. - Domestic industrial metal prices showed mixed performance, with the LME copper, aluminum, lead, and zinc prices changing by 1.1%, -0.1%, -0.2%, and 0.3% respectively, while SHFE prices changed by -0.9%, 0.5%, 0.6%, and -0.6% [5][25]. Economic Factors - The manufacturing PMI in China for August is reported at 49.4, slightly up from 49.3, with production and new orders indices at 50.8 and 49.5 respectively [8][35]. - The U.S. PPI showed a year-on-year increase of 3.3% in July, while the CPI remained stable at 2.7% [8][45]. - The Eurozone's economic sentiment index has declined, with CPI growth steady at 2% [8][43]. - Global manufacturing PMI fell to 49.7 in July, indicating a slight deterioration in business conditions [8][49]. Basic Metals - The recovery in the peak season continues, particularly for electrolytic aluminum, with signs of increasing downstream demand [9][51]. - The electrolytic aluminum industry saw a capacity increase of 10,000 tons, with operational capacity reaching 44,035,000 tons [10][52]. - The average operating rate for aluminum processing enterprises increased by 0.7%, indicating a recovery trend as the peak season approaches [10][53]. Aluminum and Alumina - The alumina price is experiencing accelerated declines, with a current price of 3,209 yuan/ton, down 1.26% [12][97]. - Domestic alumina inventory has risen to 4,316,000 tons, surpassing historical levels [12][99]. Copper - The processing fee for copper has declined, with domestic electrolytic copper production reported at 238,000 tons, an increase of 1.61% year-on-year [14][116]. - Domestic copper inventory has decreased to 202,200 tons, down 0.88% from the previous week [14][116]. Zinc - The processing fee for refined zinc has increased, with domestic production reported at 138,400 tons, up 4.05% year-on-year [15][116]. - Domestic zinc inventory has continued to rise, reaching 144,500 tons [15][116].

Company Overview - Changyuan Tungsten Industry Co., Ltd. is located in Chongyi County, Ganzhou City, Jiangxi Province, established on February 28, 2000, and listed on March 31, 2010. The company is engaged in the smelting, processing, research and development, and sales of products related to the tungsten industry chain, including APT, tungsten oxide, tungsten powder, tungsten carbide powder, tungsten materials, and hard alloys [2]. Financial Performance - For the period from January to June 2025, Changyuan Tungsten achieved operating revenue of 2.399 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 32.27%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 115 million yuan, an increase of 2.54% year-on-year [2]. - Since its A-share listing, the company has distributed a total of 862 million yuan in dividends, with 269 million yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Stock Performance - As of August 29, Changyuan Tungsten's stock price was 14.64 yuan per share, with a market capitalization of 17.589 billion yuan. The stock has increased by 128.82% year-to-date, with a 20.39% rise in the last five trading days, 61.77% in the last 20 days, and 75.75% in the last 60 days [1]. - The stock experienced a net outflow of 28.0423 million yuan in principal funds, with significant buying and selling activity recorded on August 26, where the net buying was -121 million yuan [1]. Shareholder Structure - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders was 54,300, a decrease of 3.46% from the previous period. The average circulating shares per person increased by 3.58% to 22,019 shares [2]. - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited is the third-largest shareholder with 8.7857 million shares, an increase of 2.1363 million shares from the previous period. Other notable shareholders include Yinhua Xinjia Two-Year Holding Period Mixed Fund and Southern CSI 1000 ETF [3].

Core Insights - The company, Zhangyuan Tungsten, highlighted its core competitive advantages in a recent investor interaction, which include resource security and a complete industrial chain [2] - The company emphasizes its multi-level innovation platform and independent research and development capabilities [2] - Digital intelligence drives full-chain collaboration within the company [2] - A stable core management team is identified as a key strength [2] - The company benefits from regional policy advantages [2]

Core Viewpoint - The tungsten market is experiencing significant price increases, driven by supply constraints and surging demand from military and renewable energy sectors [1][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - As of August 27, 2023, ammonium paratungstate (APT) prices reached 360,000 CNY per ton, up 10,000 CNY from the previous day, marking a 70.62% increase since the beginning of the year [1]. - Black tungsten concentrate (≥65%) and white tungsten concentrate (≥65%) prices both rose by 8,000 CNY per ton to 241,000 CNY and 240,000 CNY per ton, respectively, reflecting over a 68% increase year-to-date [1]. - The tungsten sector index hit a historical high of 1,904.20 points, with a year-to-date increase exceeding 80% [2]. Group 2: Company Performance - Xiamen Tungsten reported a revenue of 19.178 billion CNY for the first half of 2023, a year-on-year increase of 11.75%, while Xianglu Tungsten had the lowest revenue at 931 million CNY [3]. - Zhangyuan Tungsten emerged as a "dark horse" with a revenue growth of 32.27% to 2.399 billion CNY [3]. - Xiamen Tungsten's net profit increased by 7.53% to 923 million CNY, while Zhongtung High-tech saw a substantial profit increase of 310.54% to 484 million CNY [4]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Factors - Supply constraints are attributed to reduced mining quotas in China, environmental inspections leading to lower operational rates, and declining ore grades globally [4]. - Demand is driven by increased military orders, rising penetration of tungsten in photovoltaic applications, and new requirements from nuclear fusion devices [4]. - Speculative trading and stockpiling by traders have also contributed to the price surge, alongside geopolitical tensions enhancing the strategic resource premium [4]. Group 4: Profitability and Challenges - Not all tungsten companies are benefiting equally; companies with higher self-sufficiency in raw materials are likely to see greater profits [4]. - Zhangyuan Tungsten's net profit decreased by 4.36% to 107 million CNY, attributed to rising raw material costs and a lag in price transmission for their powder products [6]. - The company reported a gross margin of 14.14%, down 3.17 percentage points year-on-year, indicating challenges in maintaining profitability amid rising costs [6]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest monitoring domestic mining quotas, overseas new mine production schedules, and demand data from military and photovoltaic sectors for potential market shifts [7]. - The tungsten price is expected to remain high in the short term, with long-term projections indicating a potential upward trend due to resource depletion and expanding demand [6][7].

Group 1 - Main capital inflow observed in sectors such as electronics, communications, non-ferrous metals, banking, and power equipment [1] - Notable individual stock inflows include China Rare Earth with 3.834 billion, SMIC with 3.074 billion, and Dongshan Precision with 2.203 billion [1] - Significant capital outflows were seen in sectors like pharmaceuticals, media, food and beverage, public utilities, and agriculture [1] Group 2 - Major individual stock outflows include BYD with 0.496 billion, Changyuan Tungsten with 0.445 billion, and GoerTek with 0.392 billion [1]

Summary of the Conference Call for Zhangyuan Tungsten Industry Company Overview - Zhangyuan Tungsten Industry reported nearly 2.4 billion yuan in revenue for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 32% [2][4] - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 115 million yuan, with a staggering year-on-year growth of 2,954% [2][4] - Excluding tax incentives, operating profit and net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 15.94% and 16.87% respectively [2][4] - The company has an integrated production system covering upstream tungsten mining, midstream smelting and powder production, and downstream deep processing [2][6] Industry Insights - The tungsten market in the first half of 2025 experienced a continuous upward trend due to tightening supply, rigid downstream demand, and international geopolitical factors [3] - Average prices for tungsten products such as tungsten concentrate, ammonium paratungstate, tungsten powder, and tungsten carbide powder increased by over 11% year-on-year [3] Business Segments Upstream Operations - The company owns 10 exploration rights and 6 mining rights, with tungsten resource reserves of 79,400 tons [2][7] - Main upstream products include tungsten concentrate, which is used internally for producing ammonium paratungstate, and by-products like tin and copper concentrates [7] Midstream Operations - The midstream business focuses on producing various specifications of powder products, including ultrafine, medium, and coarse powders [8] - The company ranks first in ultrafine powder production and second in medium powder production as of the end of 2024 [8] Downstream Operations - Downstream operations consist of the main company, wholly-owned subsidiary Ganzhou Aokai, and Zhangyuan Spraying [9] - Ganzhou Aokai reported revenue of 350 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a 15% increase, and turned a profit from a previous loss [10] Production and Supply Chain - Tungsten ore production for the first half of 2025 was approximately 1,840 to 1,850 tons, with expectations for stable production in the second half [11] - The company received a national quota of 2,615 tons for the first half of 2025, with expectations for similar levels in the second half [11] - Ongoing resource integration at the Taoxikeng tungsten mine is expected to be completed by the first half of 2026 [11] Market Dynamics - The increase in tungsten prices is attributed to tightening supply and a seller's market, with significant price hikes observed recently [5][17] - Despite rising raw material prices, downstream demand for hard alloys has not been sufficient to support such rapid increases [17] Future Outlook - The company plans to maintain a stable dividend policy, adjusting based on performance [5][23] - Ongoing waste recycling projects are being explored, with the company possessing the technology for powder recovery [5][24] - The company is open to acquiring new mining assets if suitable opportunities arise [13] Additional Considerations - The overall self-sufficiency rate for tungsten may decline despite increased tungsten powder production [19] - The company’s tungsten inventory is sufficient for daily needs, with minimal changes compared to previous years [20] - There is no clear indication of joint resistance or procurement restrictions within the industry regarding current tungsten price hikes [21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [4][7]. Core Views - The company benefits from rising tungsten prices, which enhance profits, and the tool segment is expected to continue growing [4]. - The company has rich upstream mineral resources and is well-positioned to benefit from the increase in tungsten prices [4]. - The hard alloy demand is expected to grow steadily in the long term, with the tool segment showing promising growth potential [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 2.399 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.27%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 115 million yuan, up 2.54% year-on-year [1]. - In Q2 2025, revenue was 1.213 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.05%, while net profit was 73 million yuan, down 14.71% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company's net profit growth of 16.87% in H1 2025 was primarily driven by the increase in tungsten product prices and sales volume [1]. Production and Sales - In H1 2025, tungsten concentrate production was 1,849.93 tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.24%, while tungsten powder sales increased by 43.68% to 2,657.83 tons [2]. - The sales volume of rods increased by 18.99% to 427.01 tons, driven by new customer development and increased demand from existing customers [2]. Price Trends - In Q2 2025, the company's gross margin was 14.47%, an increase of 0.67 percentage points from the previous quarter [3]. - The market price of tungsten concentrate rose by 11.56% quarter-on-quarter and 10.2% year-on-year, reaching 159,500 yuan per ton [3]. Investment Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 226 million yuan, 273 million yuan, and 316 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [6]. - The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios (PE) are expected to be 82, 68, and 58 times for the same years [6].