Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price not specified [6][18]. Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in non-recurring profit, with Q1 2025 revenue at 1.227 billion yuan, up 10.69% year-on-year, and net profit at 157 million yuan, up 29.83% year-on-year [1]. - Q1 2025 sales volume increased by 11.66% to 294,600 tons, with expectations for the 97 Pure Draft product to continue growing by around 30% [2]. - The gross margin improved significantly, with a 2.9 percentage point increase, and a decrease in cost per ton by 5.8% year-on-year [3]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 6.212 billion yuan, 6.662 billion yuan, and 7.130 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 8%, 7%, and 7% [3]. - Net profit projections for the same period are 976.8 million yuan, 1.105 billion yuan, and 1.241 billion yuan, with growth rates of 20.55%, 13.12%, and 12.32% [3]. - The company is expected to maintain a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 24X, 21X, and 19X for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [3]. Key Financial Metrics - The company’s total revenue for 2023 is projected at 5.378 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 9.13% [5]. - The EBITDA for 2025 is estimated at 1.370 billion yuan, with a steady increase in subsequent years [5]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025 is projected at 976.8 million yuan, with an EPS of 0.44 yuan [12].

Industry Overview - The performance of listed liquor companies has been disclosed, with nearly 20 companies reporting their 2024 annual reports and some also releasing Q1 reports as of April 27 [1] - The overall trend shows a slowdown in the liquor industry, particularly in the white liquor segment, while top brands continue to show growth [1] - Beer stocks have rebounded in Q1 after a decline last year, with companies like Yanjing Beer and Zhujiang Beer reporting high growth in profits [1] Company Performance - Wuliangye reported a revenue of 89.175 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7.09%, with a net profit of 31.853 billion yuan, up 5.44% [1] - Gujing Gongjiu achieved a revenue of 23.578 billion yuan in 2024, growing 16.41% year-on-year, and a net profit of 5.517 billion yuan, up 20.22% [2] - Luzhou Laojiao's revenue for 2024 was 31.196 billion yuan, a 3.19% increase, with a net profit of 13.473 billion yuan, up 1.71% [3] - Yanjing Beer reported a revenue of 3.827 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a 6.69% increase, with a net profit of 165 million yuan, up 61.10% [4] - Zhujiang Beer achieved a revenue of 1.227 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a 10.69% increase, with a net profit of 157 million yuan, up 29.83% [4] - Laobai Gan Jiu reported a revenue of 5.358 billion yuan for 2024, a 1.9% increase, with a net profit of 787 million yuan, up 18% [5] - Tianyoude Jiu's revenue for 2024 was 1.255 billion yuan, a 3.7% increase, but net profit fell by 53% to 42.135 million yuan [7] - Zhangyu A reported a revenue of 811 million yuan in Q1 2025, a slight increase of 0.01%, with a net profit of 159 million yuan, up 0.21% [8] Market Dynamics - The liquor industry is experiencing a significant differentiation between leading brands and others, with some companies facing delisting risks due to poor performance [1] - The overall liquor market is still in a period of adjustment, with increased competition and declining production [7] - Guizhou province's liquor manufacturing sector saw a growth of 6.6% in Q1 2025, contributing to the overall economic growth of the region [16] - The import of wine has rebounded to become the top category, while the import value of spirits has decreased significantly [17]

Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 5.73 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.6% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 was 810 million yuan, up 29.9% year-on-year [1] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 1.23 billion yuan, reflecting a 10.7% increase compared to the same period last year [1] Financial Performance - In 2024, the beer sales volume reached 1.44 million tons, a 2.6% increase year-on-year, outperforming the industry average [1] - The average price per ton of beer increased by 4.3% year-on-year, driven by the strong performance of the premium product 97 Pure Draft [1] - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 46.3%, influenced by product structure upgrades and a decrease in raw material costs [1] Profitability and Cost Management - The net profit margin for 2024 was 14.1%, with a non-recurring net profit margin of 13.3%, both showing improvements of 2.5 and 2.9 percentage points year-on-year, respectively [1] - In the first quarter of 2025, the sales volume was 295,000 kiloliters, marking an 11.7% increase year-on-year [2] - The cost per kiloliter of beer decreased by 5.8% year-on-year, attributed to lower raw material prices and improved procurement management [2] Future Outlook - The company has raised its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting revenues of 6.13 billion, 6.51 billion, and 6.88 billion yuan, respectively [3] - The net profit forecasts for the same period are 970 million, 1.09 billion, and 1.21 billion yuan, indicating growth rates of 19.6%, 12.1%, and 11.0% year-on-year [3] - The current price-to-earnings ratios are projected to be 24, 22, and 20 for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [3] Market Position - The company is expected to continue experiencing strong growth in its premium product segment and gain market share in Guangdong province [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Add" [5] Core Views - The company has maintained a high net profit growth rate, with revenue growth improving compared to the same period last year. In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1.227 billion yuan (YoY +10.69%), an increase from the previous year's growth of +7.05%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 157 million yuan (YoY +29.83%), although this was a decrease from the previous year's growth of +39.37%. The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 145 million yuan (YoY +39.4%), down from +45.79% in the same period last year [2][3] - Both gross margin and net margin have improved, while selling expense ratio and management expense ratio have slightly decreased. In Q1 2025, the gross margin was 45.00% (YoY +2.87 percentage points), and the net margin was 13.16% (YoY +1.79 percentage points). The selling expense ratio, management expense ratio, R&D expense ratio, and financial expense ratio were 15.78%, 7.78%, 3.17%, and -3.34%, respectively, showing a decrease of -0.84 percentage points and -0.25 percentage points [2][3] - The company is expected to continue its high-end product strategy, which is anticipated to sustain steady growth. The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025-2027 is 951 million, 1.021 billion, and 1.110 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 17.43%, 7.29%, and 8.72% [3][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 1.227 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.69%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 157 million yuan, up 29.83% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 145 million yuan, reflecting a 39.4% increase [2][3] - The beer price per ton was 4,164.19 yuan, a slight decrease of 0.86% year-on-year, while beer sales volume reached 294,600 tons, an increase of 11.66% [2][3] Profit Forecast - The updated profit forecast for the company indicates net profits of 951 million yuan in 2025, 1.021 billion yuan in 2026, and 1.110 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding EPS of 0.43, 0.46, and 0.50 yuan per share [3][4] Valuation Metrics - As of April 24, the closing price was 10.11 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 22.377 billion yuan. The corresponding PE ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 24, 22, and 20 times, respectively [5][4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Add" [5][3] Core Views - The company has maintained a high net profit growth rate, with revenue growth improving compared to the same period last year. In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1.227 billion yuan (YoY +10.69%), an increase from the previous year's growth of +7.05%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 157 million yuan (YoY +29.83%), although this was a decrease from the previous year's growth of +39.37% [2][3] - The gross margin and net margin have both improved, while the sales expense ratio and management expense ratio have slightly decreased. In Q1 2025, the gross margin was 45.00% (YoY +2.87 percentage points), and the net margin was 13.16% (YoY +1.79 percentage points) [2][3] - The company is expected to continue its high-end product strategy, which is anticipated to sustain steady growth. The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025-2027 is 951 million, 1.021 billion, and 1.110 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.43, 0.46, and 0.50 yuan per share [3][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 1.227 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.69%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 157 million yuan, up 29.83% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 145 million yuan, reflecting a 39.4% increase [2][3] - The beer price per ton slightly decreased to 4,164.19 yuan/ton, down 0.86% year-on-year, while beer sales volume increased by 11.66% to 294,600 tons [2][3] Profitability Metrics - The company's gross margin improved to 45.00%, and the net margin increased to 13.16%. The sales expense ratio was 15.78%, the management expense ratio was 7.78%, and the R&D expense ratio was 3.17% [2][3] Earnings Forecast - The updated earnings forecast for the company indicates net profits of 951 million yuan in 2025, 1.021 billion yuan in 2026, and 1.110 billion yuan in 2027, with expected growth rates of 17.43%, 7.29%, and 8.72%, respectively [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong Q1 2025 performance with revenue of 1.23 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 157 million, up 29.8% year-on-year, driven by effective marketing and improved market conditions in Guangdong [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved beer sales of 295,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 11.7%, outperforming the overall industry which saw a decline of 2.2% [2] - The revenue per ton of beer was 4,164.2 yuan, a slight decrease of 0.9% year-on-year, influenced by promotional activities and the timing of the Spring Festival [2] Group 2: Profitability and Cost Management - The gross margin increased by 2.9 percentage points to 45.0%, supported by a decrease in raw material costs, particularly barley, which led to a 5.8% reduction in cost per ton of beer [3] - The net profit margin reached 12.8%, up 1.9 percentage points year-on-year, reflecting improved operational efficiency and effective marketing strategies [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from a strong brand presence and consumer recognition in Guangdong, with high-end products like 97 Pure Draft continuing to drive growth [2] - Projections for 2025-2027 indicate an EPS of 0.45, 0.52, and 0.60 yuan respectively, with a net profit CAGR of 23%, surpassing the industry average [3]

Core Viewpoint - The beer companies Yanjing Beer and Zhujiang Beer continue to experience significant growth in the first quarter, benefiting from the emerging 8 yuan price segment, indicating a shift in consumer preferences and market dynamics [2][3][4]. Company Performance - Yanjing Beer reported a revenue of approximately 38.27 billion yuan in Q1, a year-on-year increase of 6.69%, with a net profit of about 1.65 billion yuan, up 61.1% [2]. - Zhujiang Beer achieved a revenue of around 12.27 billion yuan in Q1, reflecting a 10.69% year-on-year growth, and a net profit of approximately 1.57 billion yuan, which is a 29.83% increase [2]. - Yanjing Beer’s sales expenses surged by 40.03% to 5.99 billion yuan, attributed to increased market investments [2]. - Zhujiang Beer maintained lower sales expenses, which increased by only 4.89% to 1.94 billion yuan, contributing to its competitive net profit [3]. Market Dynamics - The 8 yuan price segment is increasingly replacing traditional 3 to 5 yuan products, potentially becoming the new mainstream price range in the beer industry [4]. - The market share for Yanjing Beer in North China exceeds 53%, while Zhujiang Beer dominates the South China market with over 90% [3]. - The beer industry is witnessing a structural shift from a "bottom-heavy" to a "pyramid" sales model, with a focus on products priced above 8 yuan [4]. Competitive Landscape - Major players like Budweiser APAC and China Resources Beer are shifting their resources towards the 8 to 10 yuan price segment, indicating increased competition for Yanjing and Zhujiang Beer [4].

Core Viewpoint - The first quarter of 2025 saw significant performance differences between beer and wine companies, with Yanjing Beer and Zhujiang Beer showing strong growth in revenue and profit, while Zhangyu A experienced only marginal growth in both metrics [1][4]. Group 1: Yanjing Beer Performance - Yanjing Beer reported a revenue of approximately 38.27 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.69% [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was about 1.65 billion yuan, reflecting a substantial year-on-year growth of 61.1% [3]. - The company achieved a beer sales volume of 995,000 kiloliters, with its flagship product, Yanjing U8, maintaining a growth rate exceeding 30% [1]. Group 2: Zhujiang Beer Performance - Zhujiang Beer recorded a revenue of approximately 12.27 billion yuan, which is a year-on-year increase of 10.69% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was around 1.57 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 29.83% [2]. - Despite Yanjing Beer having over three times the revenue of Zhujiang Beer, the net profit difference was only 800 million yuan [2]. Group 3: Zhangyu A Performance - Zhangyu A reported a revenue of approximately 8.11 billion yuan, with a minimal year-on-year increase of 0.01% [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was about 1.59 billion yuan, indicating a slight year-on-year growth of 0.21% [4]. - The net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses was approximately 1.53 billion yuan, which represents a year-on-year decline of 0.82% [4]. Group 4: Shareholder Information - As of the first quarter of 2025, the total number of ordinary shareholders for Yanjing Beer, Zhujiang Beer, and Zhangyu A were approximately 43,000, 26,000, and 43,000 respectively [7]. - There was a notable decline in the number of ordinary shareholders for all three companies compared to the first quarter of 2024, with Yanjing Beer and Zhujiang Beer experiencing reductions of over 30% [7].

证券代码：002461 证券简称：珠江啤酒 公告编号：2025-014 广州珠江啤酒股份有限公司 第四届董事会第八十三次会议决议公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证公告内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假记 载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 广州珠江啤酒股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）第四届董事会第八十三 次会议于 2025 年 4 月 24 日以通讯方式召开，会议由王志斌董事长召集。召开 本次会议的通知及相关资料已于 2025 年 4 月 14 日通过电子邮件等方式送达各 位董事。本次会议应到董事 9 人（其中独立董事 3 人），实到董事 9 人。会议 由王志斌董事长主持，符合《公司法》及公司章程的有关规定。与会董事经认 真讨论，审议通过了以下议案： 一、审议通过《关于公司 2025 年第一季度报告的议案》。 《公司 2025 年第一季度报告》刊登于 2025 年 4 月 25 日《中国证券 报》、《证券时报》以及巨潮资讯网。本议案已经公司董事会审计委员会审议 通过。 表决结果：同意 9 票，反对 0 票，弃权 0 票，赞成票数占董事会有效表决 权的 100%审议通过此项议案。 二、审议通过《关于选举程衍俊先生为公司副董事 ...

Core Viewpoint - Zhujiang Beer reported a strong performance in Q1 2025, with significant growth in both revenue and net profit, indicating a positive trend in the company's financial health [1] Financial Performance - The company achieved an operating revenue of 1.227 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.69% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 157 million yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 29.83% [1] - Basic earnings per share were reported at 0.0709 yuan [1]