Group 1 - Lithium stocks experienced a decline, with Tianqi Lithium (002466) down 3.49% at HKD 47.02 and Ganfeng Lithium (002460) down 2.43% at HKD 47.44 [1] - Since October, the price of lithium carbonate has been on the rise, surpassing HKD 80,000 and HKD 90,000, reaching a peak of HKD 102,500 per ton on November 19, marking a new high since June 2024 [1] - The total monthly production of lithium carbonate continued to increase in November, with a month-on-month growth of 3% and a year-on-year increase of 49%, indicating ongoing domestic supply expansion [1] Group 2 - Guoyuan Futures released a report indicating that while market expectations for December demand remain positive, the actual demand performance is falling short of expectations due to inventory levels and production schedules in the downstream sector [1] - The report suggests that with a significant amount of lithium salt inventory still held by downstream players, combined with high lithium prices and year-end inventory reduction needs, the support for lithium prices from the demand side may weaken, leading to a potential short-term downward trend in lithium prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below 3900 points, while the Nonferrous 50 ETF (159652) saw a drop of 1.57%, with significant buying interest emerging during the dip [1][3]. Market Performance - The Nonferrous 50 ETF (159652) index components mostly retreated, with Tianqi Lithium and other stocks dropping over 3%, while Northern Rare Earth and Huayou Cobalt fell more than 2% [3]. - Key stocks in the Nonferrous 50 ETF include Zijin Mining (-1.50%), Northern Rare Earth (-2.75%), and Tianqi Lithium (-3.39%), among others, indicating a general downturn in the sector [4]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. manufacturing sector continues to decline, with the ISM reporting a contraction for the ninth consecutive month, which may influence global market sentiment [5]. - Bank of America forecasts a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, with further cuts expected in mid-2026, potentially impacting investment flows into commodities [5]. Precious Metals Market - Silver prices have surged, with a year-to-date increase of over 94%, driven by supply shortages and rising industrial demand, particularly in photovoltaics and electric vehicles [5][6]. - The market anticipates continued support for precious metals due to expectations of Fed rate cuts and liquidity easing, which could further elevate gold and silver prices [7]. Industrial Metals Outlook - The copper market faces production disruptions due to frequent accidents at major mines, leading to a downward revision of global copper output forecasts [8]. - Codelco's significant price increase for refined copper contracts highlights the tightening supply situation, with potential implications for copper prices moving forward [8]. Investment Opportunities - The Nonferrous 50 ETF (159652) is positioned to benefit from a super cycle in metals, with a diversified exposure to gold, copper, aluminum, lithium, and rare earths [9]. - The ETF's composition shows a leading "gold-copper content" of 46%, indicating a strong strategic positioning within the sector [11]. - The ETF has demonstrated superior performance with a cumulative return leading its peers since 2022, driven by earnings rather than valuation expansion [12][13].

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 | 截至月份: | 2025年11月30日 | | | | | 狀態: 新提交 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 | | | | | | | | | | 公司名稱: | 天齊鋰業股份有限公司 | | | | | | | | | 呈交日期: | 2025年12月1日 | | | | | | | | | I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 不適用 | | | | | | | | | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 H | | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | 是 | | + | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 09696 | 說明 | | | | | | | | 增加多櫃檯證券代號 | | | | | | | | | | 手動填寫 | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | 面值 | | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | 164,122,200 | RMB | | 1 RMB | | | 164,1 ...

Core Insights - The lithium industry has experienced significant oversupply since 2023, with supply growth outpacing demand growth, leading to a decline in lithium prices from a peak of 590,000 to 60,000, resulting in some high-cost projects in Australia being shut down and major companies incurring losses [4] - Starting in 2025, energy storage demand is expected to exceed expectations, becoming the second growth curve for lithium demand, with projected demand for lithium carbonate reaching 345,000 tons in 2025 and potentially exceeding 500,000 tons next year, a tenfold increase compared to 50,000 tons in 2021 [4] - The year 2026 is anticipated to be a watershed year for supply-demand reversal in the industry, with new applications in electric heavy trucks and ships, as well as technological advancements, likely to drive growth in power battery shipments [4] - The nickel industry has seen a continuous increase in supply due to investments by several Chinese companies in Indonesia, with supply expected to reach 2.2 million tons in 2024, accounting for 59% of global supply, while demand remains primarily driven by stainless steel [4] - The cobalt industry is experiencing a tightening supply due to the Democratic Republic of Congo's quota system, which has effectively raised cobalt prices [4] Lithium Industry - The lithium industry is currently in a state of supply-demand balance, with inventory levels decreasing [12] - The production of lithium iron phosphate batteries has seen significant growth, with a year-on-year increase of 65% in output [21] - The demand for lithium is projected to reach 195,000 tons in 2026, with supply at approximately 197,700 tons, indicating a narrowing surplus [37] - Major companies to watch include Ganfeng Lithium, Tianqi Lithium, and Yahua Group, which are expected to see rapid growth in their own mining operations [47] Nickel Industry - Nickel prices have been fluctuating since 2025, with LME and domestic inventories at high levels, indicating a supply surplus [50][56] - The overall supply of refined nickel in China is expected to be in surplus in 2025, with a projected supply of 379,000 tons against a demand of 361,000 tons [59] - Companies with a competitive edge in Indonesia, such as Huayou Cobalt and Liqin Resources, are recommended for investment [67] Cobalt Industry - Cobalt prices have been gradually increasing since the Democratic Republic of Congo's ban on mining exports, with the price of electrolytic cobalt reaching 405,000 yuan per ton [75] - Domestic cobalt salt production has increased, while imports of cobalt intermediate products have declined [78] - Investment opportunities in the cobalt sector include companies like Huayou Cobalt and Luoyang Molybdenum [72]

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年11月30日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 天齊鋰業股份有限公司 呈交日期: 2025年12月1日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | H | | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 09696 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 164,122,200 | RMB | | | 1 RMB | | 164,122,200 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | 0 | | | | RMB | | 0 | | 本月底結存 | | | 164,122,200 | RMB | | | 1 RMB | | 164,122,200 | 1. 因本公司是於中華人民共 ...

| 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000408 | 藏格矿业 | 62.92 | 3.52% | 30.88万 | | 19.60亿 | | 600711 | 盛屯矿业 | 12.58 | 1.94% | 208.04万 | | 26.48亿 | | 301219 | 腾远钻业 | 62.61 | 1.29% | 6.73万 | | 4.22亿 | | 605376 | 博迁新材 | 49.56 | 0.59% | 2.85万 | | 1.42亿 | | 603799 | 华友钻业 | 62.11 | 0.45% | 58.38万 | | 36.62亿 | | 300618 | 塞锐钻业 | 44.35 | 0.34% | 8.90万 | | 3.98亿 | | 002460 | 赣锋锂业 | 62.55 | 0.00% | 52.12万 | | 32.78亿 | | 002466 | 天齐锂业 | 54.62 | -0.75% | 53.22万 | | 29.34 ...

Core Viewpoint - Tianqi Lithium Industries has shown significant stock performance with a year-to-date increase of 70.15%, reflecting strong market interest and investment activity [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Tianqi Lithium reported a revenue of 7.397 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 26.50%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 180 million yuan, marking a substantial increase of 103.16% [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 7.868 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 7.137 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Stock Market Activity - As of December 1, Tianqi Lithium's stock price reached 56.15 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 764 million yuan and a turnover rate of 0.93%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 92.153 billion yuan [1]. - The stock has seen a net inflow of 18.789 million yuan from major funds, with significant buying activity from large orders [1]. Shareholder Structure - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders increased to 310,100, with an average of 4,759 shares held per shareholder, a decrease of 12.68% from the previous period [2][3]. - The top ten circulating shareholders include significant institutional investors, with Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited holding 68.159 million shares, an increase of 3.3416 million shares from the previous period [3].

Summary of Earnings Estimates for China Commodities Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China commodities** sector, specifically covering various sub-sectors including steel, coal, cement, aluminum, copper, gold, EV metals, paper, and agriculture. Key Points in Earnings Estimates Revisions - **General Update**: Earnings estimates for China commodities have been refreshed to reflect mark-to-market price changes for Q3 2025 and the current quarter. Target price changes range from -5% to +5%, with investment ratings remaining unchanged. The changes are not viewed as material, and the overall investment thesis remains intact [1][2]. Steel Sector - **Baosteel and Maanshan-H/A**: Earnings estimates cut by 3% to 5%. Loss estimates for Angang-H/A increased by 4% for 2025E [9]. Coal Sector - **Shenhua-H/A, Yankuang-H/A, Chinacoal-H/A**: Earnings estimates updated by -3% to +5% for 2025-27E based on recent coal price trends. Chinacoal-H/A target price adjusted to HK$6.5 from HK$6.4, maintaining a Sell rating [9]. Cement Sector - **CNBM, WCC, BBMG-H/A, Conch-H/A, CRBMT**: Earnings estimates updated by -5% to +3% for 2025-27E, reflecting recent unit gross profit trends [9]. Aluminum Sector - **Chalco-H/A and Hongqiao**: Earnings estimates adjusted by -5% to +5% for 2025-27E based on mark-to-market aluminum and alumina prices. Hongqiao target price fine-tuned to HK$20.0 from HK$19.6, maintaining a Neutral rating [9]. Base Metals (Copper and Gold) - **Zijin-H/A, JXC-H/A, CMOC-H/A, MMG, Zhaojin**: Earnings estimates updated by -5% to +5% for 2025-27E to reflect mark-to-market prices of copper and other metals [9]. EV Metals - **Huayou and GEM**: Earnings estimates adjusted by -3% to +5% for 2025-27E based on mark-to-market nickel/cobalt prices and cathode spreads. Huayou's target price fine-tuned to Rmb32.6 from Rmb32.4, maintaining a Sell rating [9]. Paper Sector - **ND Paper and Sun Paper**: Earnings estimates updated by 0% to 2% for 2025-27E to reflect mark-to-market paper prices [10]. Agriculture Sector - **Hog and Feed Coverage**: Earnings estimates revised by -5% to +3% for companies like Wens, New Hope, Haid, and Dabeinong, incorporating mark-to-market hog and feed prices. For animal health and conventional seeds, estimates revised by -5% to -2% [10][13]. Target Price Methodologies and Risks - **Cement Companies**: Target prices based on historical P/B vs. ROE correlations. Key risks include weaker-than-expected construction demand and slower unauthorized cement capacity exit [14]. - **Base Metals**: Target prices based on historical P/B vs. ROE correlations. Key risks include lower commodity prices and operational risks [14]. Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of considering these estimates as part of a broader investment decision-making process, highlighting potential conflicts of interest due to Goldman Sachs' business relationships with covered companies [3]. This summary encapsulates the key updates and insights from the earnings estimates for the China commodities sector, providing a comprehensive overview of the changes and their implications for investors.

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [4] Core Insights - The UK government plans to introduce a $2 billion electric vehicle subsidy program to accelerate the adoption of electric vehicles [13] - Tianqi Lithium has made significant progress in the production of lithium sulfide, with costs expected to drop to 60% of the industry average [14][15] - Longpan Technology has secured a major order for 1.3 million tons of lithium iron phosphate from Chuangneng New Energy, significantly increasing its revenue potential [16] - The first large-capacity all-solid-state battery pilot production line in China has been completed, marking a technological milestone [18][19] Summary by Sections Lithium Battery Sector - The battery industry index rose by 3.14%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 1.5 percentage points, with significant gains from key companies like Longpan Technology and Penghui Energy [11] - The UK plans a £1.5 billion subsidy to boost electric vehicle sales, which has already seen over 35,000 owners switch to electric vehicles since July [13] - Tianqi Lithium's new production process for lithium sulfide is expected to reduce costs significantly, enhancing its competitive edge [14][15] - Longpan Technology's order increase from 150,000 tons to 1.3 million tons of lithium iron phosphate is projected to generate over 45 billion yuan in sales [16][17] Energy Storage Sector - The National Development and Reform Commission has announced that new energy storage plants will not be included in the pricing of transmission and distribution costs, promoting the sector's growth [22][23] - The Hubei province aims to reach 5GW of new energy storage capacity by 2027, with a focus on new energy storage technologies [28][29] Power Equipment Sector - The results of the pricing competition for electricity mechanisms across 11 provinces have been released, with Shanghai leading in pricing [30] - The bidding for three high-voltage direct current projects has commenced, indicating ongoing infrastructure development [31][32] Photovoltaic Sector - The price of polysilicon remains stable, while the price of silicon wafers has decreased, reflecting a challenging market environment [33][34] - The global market for polysilicon is dominated by Chinese manufacturers, with four companies expected to account for 65% of global production by 2024 [39] Wind Power Sector - Recent approvals and bidding progress for offshore wind projects in various regions indicate a steady pace of development in China's offshore wind sector [43][44] - The UK is advancing its offshore wind projects, with significant milestones achieved in the Dogger Bank project [47]

Tianqi Lithium Corp. Chief Executive Officer Frank Ha is keeping the door open to the possibility of taking a case against Chile’s SQM to an international tribunal https://t.co/0rBMIIQbRv ...