Core Viewpoint - The metal industry experienced a significant increase, with a rise of 4.26% on January 6, driven by substantial capital inflow, while the communication sector faced a decline of 0.77% [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.50% on January 6, with 30 out of 31 sectors showing gains, led by the metal and non-banking financial sectors, which increased by 4.26% and 3.73% respectively [1] - The non-banking financial sector saw a net capital inflow of 69.61 billion yuan, while the metal sector followed with an inflow of 58.85 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Capital Flow in the Metal Industry - The metal industry had 138 stocks, with 128 stocks rising and 5 hitting the daily limit, while 9 stocks declined [2] - Notable stocks with significant capital inflow included Zijin Mining, which received 1.029 billion yuan, followed by Huayou Cobalt and Tianqi Lithium with inflows of 549 million yuan and 439 million yuan respectively [2] Group 3: Capital Outflow in the Metal Industry - The metal industry also experienced capital outflows, with 6 stocks seeing outflows exceeding 100 million yuan, led by Baiyin Nonferrous with an outflow of 311.89 million yuan [3] - Other notable outflow stocks included Chifeng Jilong Gold and Tianshan Aluminum, with outflows of 224.87 million yuan and 183.85 million yuan respectively [3]

Group 1 - The energy metals sector increased by 4.11% on January 6, with Huayou Cobalt leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4083.67, up 1.5%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14022.55, up 1.4% [1] - Key stocks in the energy metals sector showed significant price increases, with Huayou Cobalt rising by 8.07% to a closing price of 73.49 [1] Group 2 - The energy metals sector saw a net inflow of 1.878 billion yuan from main funds, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 1.272 billion yuan [2] - Major stocks like Huayou Cobalt and Ganfeng Lithium attracted significant main fund inflows, with Huayou Cobalt receiving 4.43 billion yuan [3] - Retail investors showed a negative trend in several stocks, with notable outflows from Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium [3]

Group 1 - Tianqi Lithium Industries, Inc. experienced a 5% increase in stock price, reaching 59.85 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 4.035 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 4.65%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 98.226 billion CNY [1] - The company, established on October 16, 1995, and listed on August 31, 2010, is located in Chengdu, Sichuan Province, and specializes in the production and sales of lithium concentrate products and lithium compounds and their derivatives [1] - The revenue composition of Tianqi Lithium is as follows: lithium compounds and derivatives account for 50.54%, lithium ore for 49.25%, and others for 0.21% [1] Group 2 - Huatai-PB Asset Management's Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF (510300) is among the top ten circulating shareholders of Tianqi Lithium, having reduced its holdings by 816,800 shares to a total of 17.58 million shares, representing 1.07% of circulating shares [2] - The ETF has generated an estimated floating profit of approximately 50.1029 million CNY today [2] - The Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF was established on May 4, 2012, with a current scale of 425.581 billion CNY, achieving a year-to-date return of 1.9% and a one-year return of 28.32% [2]

Group 1 - The A-share market continues to rise, with copper prices hitting new highs, leading to a strong opening in the non-ferrous sector [1] - The Non-ferrous 50 ETF (159652) has seen a significant increase of over 4%, reaching a new high since its listing, with strong capital inflow exceeding 50 million yuan [1] - Major non-ferrous stocks such as Zijin Mining and China Aluminum have shown substantial gains, with increases of 5.93% and 6.91% respectively [2] Group 2 - Geopolitical tensions have made precious metals a focal point, with COMEX gold rising by 3% and silver by over 7% [3] - The market is closely watching the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report, which is expected to provide guidance on the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy [3] - Supply disruptions in industrial metals are ongoing, with strikes and indefinite shutdowns reported in key mining operations [3] Group 3 - The outlook for the gold market in 2026 is optimistic, driven by expected monetary and fiscal easing from the Federal Reserve and ongoing inflationary pressures [4] - The copper market is influenced by both cyclical and structural factors, with a projected supply-demand gap of approximately 830,000 tons in 2026, leading to potential price increases [6] - The Non-ferrous 50 ETF (159652) is positioned to benefit from a comprehensive exposure to various metal sectors, including gold, copper, aluminum, lithium, and rare earths [5][9] Group 4 - The Non-ferrous 50 ETF (159652) has a leading "gold-copper content" of 45%, with significant representation in copper (31%) and gold (14%) [8] - The ETF's top five constituent stocks have a high concentration of 36%, indicating a strong focus on key strategic metals [9] - Since 2022, the Non-ferrous 50 ETF has outperformed peers with a cumulative return of 86.28%, driven by earnings rather than valuation expansion [13]

Group 1 - Lithium mining stocks are performing actively, with Ganfeng Lithium (002460)(01772) rising by 4.13% to HKD 55.5 and Tianqi Lithium (002466)(09696) increasing by 3.04% to HKD 54.3 [1] - Lithium carbonate futures have surged, with the main LC2506 contract increasing by over 8%, reaching a peak of CNY 137,760 per ton after breaking the CNY 130,000 per ton mark [1] - The State Council's notification on January 5, 2026, regarding the comprehensive management of solid waste emphasizes the integration of heavy non-ferrous metal mining and selection, which may impact certain mining operations in Jiangxi [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: Chinese Basic Materials - **2026 Outlook**: Expected stable year for Chinese commodity demand with growth rates ranging from -1.3% to +2.0% year-over-year, improving sequentially from 2H25A [1][24] Core Insights and Arguments - **Demand Growth**: - Chinese copper and aluminum demand projected to grow by 2.0% and 0.8% respectively in 2026E, a deceleration from 1H25A but approximately 3% better than 2H25A [21][27] - Demand for lithium is expected to remain strong due to energy storage systems (ESS) [21] - Cement and steel demand under pressure due to weakened infrastructure activities, though government financing may improve conditions [22] - **Supply Dynamics**: - Solid supply/demand balance for most commodities, but strong pricing in 2025 may lead to changes in supply outlook [2] - Supply discipline is challenged in aluminum, while lithium shows signs of accelerated supply response; copper supply is expected to remain tight [2][17] - Anti-involution policies in oversupplied segments may improve industry capacity utilization by 10% [3] - **Acquisitions and Strategic Shifts**: - Increased acquisitions and asset injections by large state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in coal, steel, and other sectors, reflecting strategic repositioning [4] Commodity-Specific Insights - **Cement**: Positive outlook with expected recovery in capacity utilization from 49% to 60% by end of 2026E due to capacity closures [17] - **Coal**: Stable pricing anticipated due to balanced demand and supply [18] - **Copper**: Continued strong pricing expected due to limited supply growth [17] - **Lithium**: Market expected to tighten in 1H26E before easing in 2H26E, with potential for a balanced market depending on supply responses [17] - **Steel**: Margins expected to remain depressed with slower capacity work [17] - **Gold**: Forecasted price to reach US$4,900/oz by Dec-2026, supported by central bank purchases [20] Important but Overlooked Content - **Investment Ratings**: - Positive ratings maintained for Zijin-H/A, CMOC-H/A, and Anhui Conch-H/A; cautious stance on Ganfeng-H/A and Tianqi-H/A [16] - Upgrades for most coal names to NEUTRAL from Sell, indicating a more constructive view on coal [16] - **Market Dynamics**: - The contribution from the property sector to steel and cement demand is now limited, accounting for only 7-8% [22] - Expectations of flat coal demand driven by stable coal-fired power generation [23] - **Key Assumptions for Demand Estimates**: - Infrastructure investment growth projected at 4% for 2026E, with traditional infrastructure expected to grow by 1% [26] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections regarding the Chinese basic materials industry, highlighting both opportunities and risks for investors.

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a strong performance in the non-ferrous metals sector, with the industry index rising by 1.94% and individual stocks like Huayou Cobalt and Zhongkuang Resources showing significant gains [1] - Huayou Cobalt is expected to achieve a net profit of 5.85 billion to 6.45 billion yuan for the fiscal year 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 40.8% to 55.24% [1] - The overall upward trend in non-ferrous metals is attributed to rising geopolitical tensions and loose liquidity, with copper futures reaching a historic high of $13,000 per ton and aluminum prices surpassing $3,000 per ton for the first time in over three years [1] Group 2 - According to Fangzheng Securities, the short-term global copper inventory is expected to continue adjusting, with supply shortages in copper mines reinforcing the upward price trend [2] - The aluminum sector is anticipated to benefit from low alumina prices, leading to an expansion in profit margins, while the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts may further support aluminum prices [2] - The report emphasizes the importance of supply-driven factors in cobalt pricing, particularly in relation to the Democratic Republic of Congo's efforts to secure pricing power [2] Group 3 - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the non-ferrous metals industry index account for 51.65% of the index, with major companies including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Huayou Cobalt [3]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index opened up by 0.59%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 0.79%, with active performance in insurance stocks, lithium mining stocks, and tech stocks [1] - Guotai Junan Securities believes that the current rise in Hong Kong stocks is supported by fundamentals, with signs of structural recovery in profitability starting from the second half of 2024, driven by stabilization in both domestic and external demand [1] - The weighting of new economy-related stocks in the Hang Seng Index has increased from 17% to nearly 50%, indicating a shift towards hard technology sectors such as AI applications, new energy, and semiconductors [1] Group 2 - Guolian Minsheng Securities forecasts that the domestic economy will experience a weak recovery in 2026, benefiting Hong Kong stocks, with an expected inflow of 630 billion to 1,050 billion HKD from southbound funds [2] - The performance of Hong Kong stocks during the New Year holiday is expected to influence the A-share market post-holiday, with a historical correlation coefficient of about 0.5 between the Hang Seng Index's performance during this period and the subsequent performance of the Shanghai Composite Index [2]

客户端 美股周一大幅向好，科技股展现强势，道指再创历史新高，三大指数均录得升幅收市。美元反复偏软， 美国十年期债息回落至4.16厘水平，金价大幅走高，油价表现亦向上。 今日港股三大指数集体高开，恒指开盘涨0.59%，报26502.40点，恒科指涨0.79%，国企指数涨0.48%。 盘面上，科网股涨多跌少，百度、网易、快手、哔哩哔哩、京东涨超1%，阿里巴巴跌超1%；电力设备 股高开，亿华通涨超4%；锂电池股活跃，天齐锂业涨超3%；保险股延续涨势，友邦保险涨超2%；汽车 股多数上涨，理想汽车涨超1%。 | 名称 | 最新价 | 涨跌幅 √ | | --- | --- | --- | | 但生科技指数 | 5787.01 | +0.79% | | 800700 | | | | 恒生指数 | 26502.40 | +0.59% | | 800000 | | | | 国企指数 | 9192.41 | +0.48% | | 800100 | | | 责任编辑：郝欣煜 美股周一大幅向好，科技股展现强势，道指再创历史新高，三大指数均录得升幅收市。美元反复偏软， 美国十年期债息回落至4.16厘水平，金价大幅走高，油价表现亦向上 ...

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 | 截至月份: | | 2025年12月31日 | | | | | 狀態: 新提交 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 | | | | | | | | | | | | 公司名稱: | | 天齊鋰業股份有限公司 | | | | | | | | | | 呈交日期: | | 2026年1月5日 | | | | | | | | | | I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 不適用 | | | | | | | | | | | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | | 股份類別 H | | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | 是 | | | + | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 09696 | | 說明 | | | | | | | | | 增加多櫃檯證券代號 | | | | | | | | | | | | 手動填寫 | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | 面值 | | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | | 上月 ...