Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index experienced narrow fluctuations, while the ChiNext Index rose over 1% on December 17. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.04 trillion yuan, a decrease of 103.9 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day. A total of 3,724 stocks declined, while 1,578 stocks increased [1][2]. Sector Performance - The lithium battery industry chain led the market gains, with Tianhua New Energy (300390) rising over 13%, Jinyuan Co. (000546) achieving two consecutive limit-ups in four days, and Shengxin Lithium Energy (002240) hitting the daily limit. Hong Kong-listed Tianqi Lithium (002466) and Ganfeng Lithium (002460) both increased by over 5% [3][4]. Lithium Market Insights - On December 17, lithium carbonate futures surged over 7%, reaching a new high since May 2024. Following the shutdown of mining operations by CATL (300750), the "Lithium Capital of Asia," Yichun, plans to cancel 27 mining rights. Analysts noted that lithium carbonate futures prices have risen over 70% from their low point earlier in the year, with market expectations for lithium demand significantly improving following the release of November battery sales data [3][4]. Rare Metals and Other Sectors - The optical module sector saw a significant rebound, with major players like Guangku Technology (300620) leading with over a 5% increase. Rare metal stocks also strengthened, with Zhongtung High-tech (000657) nearing a limit-up and reaching a historical high. Tungsten powder prices increased by 10,000 yuan per ton, now priced at 1 million yuan per ton, reflecting a 216.5% rise since the beginning of the year [5]. New Stock Performance - Muxi Co., known as the "second domestic GPU stock" and the "second most expensive new stock of the year," saw its shares soar over 700%, with a market capitalization nearing 335 billion yuan, surpassing Moer Thread. The stock's price reached 719.8 yuan, with potential profits exceeding 300,000 yuan per share [7]. Precious Metals Update - Silver prices reached a new historical high, with spot silver rising over 3% to 65.86 USD per ounce. The main contract for silver futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by over 4%. Gold also saw a sharp increase, touching 4,320 USD, with the World Gold Council projecting an average annual return of over 5% for gold from 2025 to 2040 [7][8].

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced fluctuations on December 17, with the non-ferrous sector showing strong performance, particularly the Non-ferrous 50 ETF (159652), which rose over 2% in early trading and attracted over 830 million yuan in net subscriptions in the previous day [1] - The Non-ferrous 50 ETF has seen net subscriptions exceeding 650 million yuan over the past 20 trading days, with its latest scale surpassing 3.5 billion yuan, indicating a strong market interest [1] - Key stocks within the Non-ferrous 50 ETF, such as Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium, saw significant gains, with Tianqi Lithium rising over 5% and Ganfeng Lithium over 4% [1] Group 2 - Lithium carbonate futures surged over 8% on December 17, reaching a new high since June 2024, with a cumulative increase of over 37% this year [3] - The Yichun city government plans to revoke mining licenses for 27 mining sites, including the Wuqiao ceramic stone mine, indicating regulatory actions impacting lithium supply [3] Group 3 - The current market dynamics for copper show a slight increase of 0.79% in LME copper prices, with expectations of a 10% reduction in copper smelting capacity to address negative processing fee trends [6] - The copper supply-demand gap is projected to widen, with increasing demand driven by traditional sectors and emerging technologies like AI, which is expected to significantly boost copper demand [16] Group 4 - The precious metals market is witnessing historical highs, with silver prices surpassing $65 per ounce and gold prices reaching over $4,320 per ounce, driven by strong investment demand and low inventory levels [5] - The financial attributes of gold, silver, and copper are expected to strengthen amid global inflation expectations and concerns over the US dollar's credit risk, making them attractive for investors seeking to hedge against uncertainty [12] Group 5 - The Non-ferrous 50 ETF (159652) is positioned to benefit from a super cycle in non-ferrous metals, covering a wide range of metals including gold, copper, aluminum, lithium, and rare earths, with a focus on strategic assets [26] - The ETF's composition shows a leading concentration in gold and copper, with copper accounting for 31% and gold for 14%, indicating a strong alignment with market trends [28]

Group 1 - The A-share market for lithium mining stocks has shown strong performance, with several companies reaching their daily price limit [1] - Notable gainers include Shengxin Lithium Energy, Dazhong Mining, and Jinyuan Co., which all hit the daily limit [1] - Other companies such as Yalake Co. and Guocheng Mining saw increases of over 7%, while Zhongmin Resources, Rongjie Co., and Yahua Group rose by more than 6% [1] Group 2 - Tianqi Lithium, Tibet Mining, Tibet City Investment, and Ganfeng Lithium all experienced gains exceeding 5% [1]

Core Insights - The rare metals sector in the A-share market experienced significant gains, with several stocks reaching new highs and notable increases in share prices [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Zhongtung High-tech reached its daily limit and set a historical high, with a price increase of 9.79% and a total market capitalization of 65.2 billion [2] - Zhongmin Resources and Xiamen Tungsten both saw price increases exceeding 6%, with year-to-date gains of 89.47% and 122.63% respectively [2] - Other notable performers included Yahua Group, Tianqi Lithium, and Tibet Mining, all of which recorded price increases of over 5% [1][2] Group 2: Market Capitalization and Year-to-Date Gains - The total market capitalization of the top rare metal stocks varied, with Ganfeng Lithium leading at 131.7 billion, followed by Tianqi Lithium at 86.8 billion [2] - Year-to-date performance showed substantial growth across the sector, with Zhongtung High-tech leading at 214.71% increase, indicating strong investor interest and market confidence [2]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market for rare metal stocks has seen a significant rally, with several companies reaching new highs and experiencing substantial gains [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Zhongtung High-tech reached its daily limit and set a historical high [1] - Zhongmin Resources, Xiamen Tungsten, and Rongjie Co. all increased by over 6% [1] - Yahua Group, Tianqi Lithium, Tibet Mining, and Zhangyuan Tungsten all rose by over 5% [1] - Ganfeng Lithium, Dongfang Tantalum, and Yongxing Materials increased by over 4% [1]

锂矿概念17日盘中强势拉升，截至发稿，天华新能涨超13%，金圆股份涨停，盛新锂能涨超7%，天齐 锂业涨近5%。 有分析指出，当前碳酸锂期货格较年内低点已经上涨超70%。随着11月份电池销量数据的出炉，市场对 于碳酸锂的需求预期已经大幅扭转。 中信建投证券指出，12月本为传统消费淡季，但下游需求远超预期，季节性因素淡化，锂价预计维持高 位。据SMM统计，供给端，11月碳酸锂及氢氧化锂环比增长3%、2%，预计12月增量有限，基于江西锂 云母复产的乐观预期下，碳酸锂仅环比增幅3%，氢氧化锂则预计12月环比下降3%。需求端，订单火热 现象将持续至年末，11月磷酸铁锂及三元材料分别环比增长4.7%、下降0.2%，12月订单饱满，铁锂需 求环比持平，三元环比回落6.7%。月度平衡角度，11月市场短缺万吨以上，预计12月缺口收窄，但或 仍缺口5000吨以上，因此12月保持去库预期，价格有望维持高位。库存端，碳酸锂库存已降至12万吨以 下，其中锂盐厂库存从年中的近6万吨降至2.4万吨，待明年二季度需求旺季，库存水平难以支撑需求， 需求将再度赋予价格弹性。 ...

Group 1 - The lithium mining sector saw a significant increase, with related indices rising nearly 5% as of the report date [1] - Notable stock performances included Guocheng Mining and Jinyuan Co., both hitting the daily limit up, while Tianhua New Energy surged over 10% [1] - The lithium index reached 6504.79, marking a 4.79% increase [2] Group 2 - Lithium carbonate futures experienced a rise of over 6%, reaching 107,500 yuan per ton, the highest since May 2024, with a year-to-date increase of nearly 40% [3][4] - The trading volume for lithium carbonate futures was reported at 362,400 contracts, indicating strong market activity [4]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index opened up 0.03%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 0.09%. Lithium mining stocks were active, with Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium both increasing by over 3%. The automotive sector saw a pullback, with Xpeng Motors declining by nearly 1% [1] - Galaxy Securities suggests that the Hong Kong stock market is expected to trend upwards due to a loose liquidity environment and favorable policies. Key sectors to focus on include technology, which is seen as a long-term investment theme, and consumer sectors that may receive significant policy support [1] - According to浦银国际, the market is likely to maintain a volatile trend in the short term, with potential rotation in investment styles. The lack of new catalysts and uncertainties regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts next year may lead to increased market fluctuations [1] Group 2 - Huatai Securities believes that the current market has limited downside potential, but the chances for upward movement are not yet favorable. Market sentiment indicators remain in a pessimistic range, indicating a bottoming phase [2] - Future market catalysts may arise from three expected differences: 1) Renminbi appreciation could lead to significant changes in capital flows; 2) Concerns about exchange rate appreciation and high export baselines may persist, but there is an expectation of resilience in exports due to a stable Sino-U.S. relationship in the first half of next year; 3) Breakthroughs in domestic technology may pave an independent path [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Global geopolitical conflicts drive up the risk - aversion sentiment, the People's Bank of China continuously buys gold, and the Fed is still in the interest - rate cut channel, so the gold price is supported. Suggestions are to focus on Zijin Mining and Shandong Gold [5]. - The raw material for copper is in short supply, and the copper price is more likely to rise than fall. Suggestions are to focus on Zijin Mining and Tongling Nonferrous Metals [5]. - For electrolytic aluminum, supply is restricted, new - energy demand contributes to the increase, and the situation of weak supply and strong demand continues. In terms of profit, the alumina production capacity will be gradually released in 2025, the alumina price will continue to decline, and the profit is expected to recover. Suggestions are to focus on Shenhuo Co., Ltd., Yunnan Aluminum Co., Ltd., and Tianshan Aluminum Co., Ltd. [5]. - For energy metals, there are frequent reports of production cuts from overseas supply - side, and signals of production cuts or shutdowns in the whole industry will continue to appear. The lithium price has bottomed out and rebounded as the in - depth integration of production capacity has begun. Suggestions are to focus on Ganfeng Lithium Co., Ltd., Tianqi Lithium Corporation, and Huayou Cobalt Co., Ltd. [5]. - China tightens the tungsten supply, and the market continues to rise with reduced volume. Relevant companies are China Tungsten High - tech Co., Ltd. and Xiamen Tungsten Co., Ltd. [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Trend**: Since 2024, the gold price has repeatedly hit new highs. In different quarters from 24Q3 to 25Q3, various factors such as Fed's interest - rate cuts, geopolitical conflicts, inflation, and tariff policies have affected the gold price. In the future, geopolitical, tariff policy changes, market risk preferences, and interest - rate cuts will still impact the gold price [8][13]. - **Supply and Demand**: Gold supply is stable, while global central banks are increasing their gold purchases. In 25Q3, central bank gold - buying demand was 219.85 tons, a 10.2% increase year - on - year. The People's Bank of China restarted the gold - buying channel in November 2024 and has continuously increased its gold holdings [14][21]. - **Stock Recommendations**: Suggestions are to focus on Chifeng Gold, Shandong Gold, Shanjin International, and Zijin Mining. These companies have certain scales and performance flexibility. For example, in the first half of 2025, Shandong Gold's net profit attributable to shareholders was 28.08 billion yuan, a 102.98% year - on - year increase; Chifeng Gold planned to produce 16.0 tons of gold in 2025; Shanjin International's revenue and profit increased significantly; Zijin Mining's net profit attributable to shareholders was 233 billion yuan, a 54% year - on - year increase [22][23]. Copper - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The supply of copper ore is tight, which leads to the increase of copper price and compresses the profit of the smelting end. The copper concentrate treatment and refining charges (TC) have been declining since 2024, reaching - 43.08 US dollars/ton as of December 12, 2025. The difference between LME and COMEX copper inventories has widened, resulting in a short - term regional mismatch in copper supply [26][30]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Supply**: The domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is approaching the ceiling, and the output growth is restricted by power - rationing policies. Overseas, power supply is tight, and there are frequent shutdown events, leading to supply shortages [41]. - **Demand**: From January to October 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum demand was 38.7697 million tons, a 5.72% year - on - year increase. The demand for aluminum in the automotive and photovoltaic industries is increasing. Aluminum - bodied new - energy vehicles can increase cruising range and reduce battery costs, and the photovoltaic industry is booming under policy support [42][48]. - **Cost and Profit**: The domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity restricts the demand for alumina, and with the release of new production capacity, alumina is in oversupply. The decline in alumina price is beneficial to the profit of the electrolytic aluminum sector. Suggestions are to focus on Shenhuo Co., Ltd., Yunnan Aluminum Co., Ltd., and Tianshan Aluminum Co., Ltd. [51][52]. Lithium - **Price and Market**: The price of lithium carbonate has bottomed out and rebounded. The market is generally optimistic about the demand for lithium carbonate next year. With the gradual increase in supply, both supply and demand are booming, and the industry profit is gradually improving [56]. - **Stock Recommendations**: Suggestions are to focus on Tianqi Lithium Corporation, Ganfeng Lithium Co., Ltd., Zhongkuang Resources Co., Ltd., Yongxing Special Materials Co., Ltd., and other companies. The performance and profit expectations of these companies vary [60]. Tungsten - **Supply**: China tightens the tungsten supply, and the global supply is restricted. Regulatory strengthening and declining ore grades affect production capacity release, and supply is generally tight. In April 2025, the Ministry of Natural Resources of China issued the first - batch tungsten ore mining total - volume indicator of 58,000 tons [62][66]. - **Stock Recommendations**: Suggestions are to focus on Xiamen Tungsten Co., Ltd., Zhangyuan Tungsten Co., Ltd., China Tungsten High - tech Co., Ltd., Xianglu Tungsten Co., Ltd., and Jiangxi Tungsten Equipment Co., Ltd. [67].

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metals industry is expected to enter a new upward cycle, driven by macroeconomic recovery, supply chain disruptions, and liquidity easing from the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, which will enhance metal prices and industry performance [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of December 16, 2025, the non-ferrous metals industry index (399395) showed mixed performance among its constituent stocks, with Zhongtung High-tech (000657) leading the gains at 3.05%, followed by Yahua Group (002497) at 2.25%, and Xiamen Tungsten (600549) at 0.59% [1]. - The overall market is experiencing a pullback, but funds are strategically positioning in the non-ferrous sector [1]. Group 2: Future Outlook - According to China Galaxy Securities, the industry is expected to stabilize in 2024, with macroeconomic expectations improving in 2025, alongside supply chain disruptions due to resource control policies in other countries [1]. - The anticipated liquidity easing from the Federal Reserve's rate cuts is expected to drive up non-ferrous metal prices and enhance the profitability of non-ferrous metal companies, continuing the upward trend in the industry [1]. - The narrative around copper supply remains positive, and cobalt prices are expected to rise under policy adjustments in the Democratic Republic of Congo [1]. - The strategic value of rare earths is increasing, with a favorable supply-demand balance [1]. Group 3: ETF and Index Information - The non-ferrous ETF (159880) closely tracks the non-ferrous metals industry index, which includes 50 prominent securities in the sector, reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in the non-ferrous metals industry [2]. - As of November 28, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the non-ferrous metals industry index accounted for 52.34% of the index, including companies like Zijin Mining (601899) and China Aluminum (601600) [2].