智通财经APP获悉，7月29日，国家邮政局召开快递企业座谈会，就依法依规治理行业"内卷式"竞争， 强化农村地区领取快件违规收费等突出问题整治。会议指出，党的十八大以来，我国快递行业持续快速 发展。各企业负责人要进一步增强大局意识，认真贯彻落实党中央、国务院工作部署，紧跟时代步伐， 引领业态发展，积极推动解决"内卷式"竞争和农村地区领取快件违规收费等突出问题，维护好行业良好 发展业态。快递企业总部要履行好主体责任，创新经营模式，努力提升农村地区快递服务的适应性和可 持续性。 北京国家邮政局召开快递企业座谈会强调 本文编选自"国家邮政局"微信公众号，智通财经编辑：刘家殷。 维护行业良好发展业态 促进快递业高质量发展 会议强调，要积极推进行业党建"两个覆盖"工作，进一步完善快递业党建工作体制机制，强化党建对行 业治理和企业管理的政治引领和规范促进作用。 市场监管司通报了上半年行业市场监管有关情况。中通、圆通、韵达、申通、极兔等快递企业相关负责 人围绕会议主题进行交流并提出意见和建议。 原文如下： 国家邮政局市场监管司有关负责人，中通、圆通、韵达、申通、极兔等快递企业相关负责人参加会议。 7月29日，国家邮政局召开快 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the express delivery industry [8]. Core Insights - The express delivery industry is expected to experience a "de-involution" phase, with significant policy catalysts anticipated in the upcoming months. The transition from the off-peak to peak season is expected to enhance the pricing power of express companies [2][11]. - The pricing increase duration is projected to be between 2 to 4 months, with a price increase of 0.06 to 0.30 yuan per ticket expected during the peak season. The profit per ticket is anticipated to improve by 0.01 to 0.10 yuan in Q4 [2][11]. - The average profit elasticity for e-commerce express delivery is expected to reach double digits, with second-tier express companies showing even more significant profit elasticity [2][11]. Summary by Sections Event Description - The report discusses the recent meeting of the State Post Bureau, which emphasized the need to combat "involution" in the express delivery sector. It addresses three main questions: the timing and sustainability of the current "de-involution," the profit elasticity for core enterprises, and the tools available for this process [6]. Pricing Dynamics - The report analyzes historical pricing trends, indicating that the current "de-involution" phase may be catalyzed by policy changes, with pricing increases expected to last longer than in 2024 but shorter than in 2021. The report references past data to illustrate potential outcomes [11][20]. Profit Elasticity - The report provides a detailed analysis of profit elasticity for major express companies, projecting that if the industry begins to raise prices in August and continues until December, the net profit for companies like Zhongtong, Yunda, and Shentong could reach 95.8 billion, 40.6 billion, and 17.4 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding profit elasticities of 6.5%, 12.7%, and 27.9% [20][21]. Tools for "De-involution" - The report identifies two main strategies for achieving "de-involution": regulatory measures to curb price wars and encouraging mergers and acquisitions among leading companies to optimize competition. The acquisition of Danbird Logistics by Shentong Express is highlighted as a significant step towards improving market dynamics [25][26]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests actively seizing opportunities presented by the "de-involution" phase, recommending companies such as YTO Express, Shentong Express, Zhongtong Express, Jitu Express, and Yunda [21].

Group 1 - The domestic express delivery industry is accelerating consolidation, with Shentong Express announcing the acquisition of 100% equity in Zhejiang Daniao Logistics for 362 million yuan [1] - After the transaction, Daniao Logistics will become a wholly-owned subsidiary of Shentong Express and will be included in the company's consolidated financial statements [1] - Daniao Logistics, established by Cainiao in 2019, provides services such as collection, transit delivery, and reverse returns across approximately 300 cities in China, with an average daily business volume exceeding 4 million orders for 2024 and the first four months of 2025 [1] Group 2 - Despite its extensive network of 59 distribution centers and over 2,600 outlets, Daniao Logistics has struggled with profitability, reporting a net loss of 230 million yuan from January to April this year due to seasonal business volume declines and industry price reductions [1][2] - Shentong Express aims to enhance service quality and optimize product structure through this acquisition, targeting high-end delivery markets and emerging scenarios such as regional delivery and instant retail [2] - The State Post Bureau has been encouraging mergers and acquisitions in the express delivery sector, leading to increased consolidation activities within the industry, including significant acquisitions by competitors like JD Logistics and SF Express [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the transportation industry [4][6][7]. Core Views - The "anti-involution" policy in the express delivery sector is expected to ease competition, with Shentong Express planning to acquire Dan Niao Logistics [3][54]. - The shipping industry is anticipated to see a bottoming out of oil transportation rates during the summer, with potential upward pressure on rates due to supply constraints and demand changes [1][22][23]. - The aviation sector is experiencing a decline in flight volumes, but the domestic passenger market is expected to continue optimizing supply and demand dynamics through 2025 [2][37][46]. Summary by Sections Shipping Sector - In July, crude oil entered the off-season, leading to a softening of oil freight rates, with expectations for a bottoming out during the summer [1]. - The current supply situation is relatively tight, and marginal changes in demand could significantly impact freight rates [1][22]. - Recommendations include China Merchants Energy and China Merchants Shipping, with a focus on China Merchants South Oil [1]. Aviation Sector - The overall and domestic passenger flight volumes have decreased by 1.5% and 1.4% respectively compared to the previous week, but remain above 2019 levels [2][37]. - The average ticket price for domestic routes has dropped by 8.0% year-on-year, while passenger load factors have improved slightly [2][37]. - Investment recommendations include closely monitoring ticket price performance during the peak summer season, with a focus on China National Aviation, Eastern Airlines, Southern Airlines, and Spring Airlines [2][46]. Express Delivery Sector - The "anti-involution" policy has been implemented to combat excessive competition, with price increases already observed in regions like Yiwu [3][53]. - The introduction of unmanned logistics vehicles is expected to reduce costs significantly for leading companies like SF Express and Zhongtong Express [3][61]. - Investment suggestions include SF Express, Zhongtong Express, YTO Express, and Shentong Express, with a focus on the impact of the "anti-involution" policy [3][63]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts and Investment Ratings - China Merchants Energy, China Merchants Shipping, SF Express, Zhongtong Express, and YTO Express are all rated as "Outperform" [7]. - SF Express is expected to maintain a growth rate of 15-20% over the next two years, with a PE ratio of approximately 20 times in 2025 [3][63]. - China Merchants Shipping reported a 20.1% year-on-year increase in revenue for Q1 2025, indicating strong performance [27].

证券之星消息，7月29日物流板块较上一交易日下跌0.04%，音飞储存领跌。当日上证指数报收于 3609.71，上涨0.33%。深证成指报收于11289.41，上涨0.64%。物流板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 002468 | 申通快递 | 14.64 | 3.68% | 80.13万 | 11.35 亿 | | 603871 | 嘉友国际 | 11.62 | 3.20% | 22.26万 | 2.53亿 | | 872351 | や米濃海 | 29.79 | 2.02% | 2.39万 | 7008.63万 | | 603056 | 德邦股份 | 16.15 | 1.19% | 18.94万 | 3.03亿 | | 601598 | 中国外运 | 5.41 | 1.12% | 22.91万 | 1.24亿 | | 603569 | 长久物流 | 7.98 | 0.50% | 5.85万 | 4632.38万 | | 600787 | 中储股份 | 6.01 ...

Core Viewpoint - Shentong Express plans to acquire 100% of Zhejiang Daniao Logistics for 362 million yuan, marking a strategic move to enhance its high-end market presence and improve quality express delivery services [2][4]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - The acquisition will be executed by Shentong's wholly-owned subsidiary, with the transaction involving three parties from Alibaba Group [3]. - The valuation of Daniao Logistics reflects a 68.41% increase based on asset-based assessment, attributed to its high leverage and asset-liability ratio [3]. - A three-year impairment compensation commitment has been established to protect Shentong's interests [4]. Group 2: Business Context - Daniao Logistics, originally part of Alibaba's logistics ecosystem, focuses on quality express delivery and reverse logistics, operating 59 distribution centers and over 2,600 service points across 300 cities [6][7]. - In 2024, Daniao Logistics is projected to achieve 12.35 billion yuan in revenue with a net profit of 20.11 million yuan, indicating a micro-profit status due to its growth phase [6]. Group 3: Market Reaction and Strategic Implications - Following the acquisition announcement, Shentong's stock price fell by 6.74%, reflecting investor concerns about the transaction and upcoming changes in shareholding [8][9]. - The acquisition occurs just five months before Alibaba's option to exercise its share purchase rights, which has been a focal point for investors [9]. - Shentong aims to differentiate itself in the competitive express delivery market, targeting a strategic goal of becoming a leading economic express service provider in China [10].

Group 1 - Shentong plans to acquire 100% equity of Daniao Logistics for 362 million yuan, which is the operating entity of Cainiao's domestic express service [1] - Daniao Logistics operates 59 distribution centers and over 2,600 outlets, processing over 4 million high-value orders daily, with revenues of 12.351 billion yuan and 2.965 billion yuan for 2024 and the first four months of 2025 respectively [2] - The acquisition is expected to accelerate the establishment of a quality express network for Shentong, capturing opportunities in regional delivery and instant retail [2] Group 2 - Cainiao's decision to sell Daniao is part of a strategic focus on core businesses, allowing it to allocate more resources to international logistics, overseas express, global supply chain, and logistics technology [2] - The domestic express market is becoming increasingly competitive, and integrating Daniao with socialized network express companies may unlock growth potential [2] - Cainiao has established a significant presence in international logistics, with a cross-border parcel network covering over 200 countries and regions, and processing over 1.5 billion cross-border parcels annually [4] Group 3 - The international logistics market is expanding, with China's cross-border e-commerce imports and exports reaching approximately 1.32 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 5.7% [3] - The number of Chinese enterprises engaged in import and export has surpassed 628,000, marking a historical high, with private enterprises accounting for a significant portion of this growth [3] - Cainiao's logistics capabilities are enhanced by its technological advancements, such as RFID technology, which improves processing efficiency by 30% compared to traditional methods [9][10]

昨日基金共对19家公司进行调研，扎堆调研申通快递、太力科技、沪电股份等。 证券时报·数据宝统计，7月25日共25家公司被机构调研，按调研机构类型看，基金参与19家公司的调研 活动。申通快递最受关注，参与调研的基金达12家；太力科技、沪电股份等分别获5家、4家基金集体调 研。 基金参与调研的公司中，按所属板块统计，深市主板公司有10家，创业板公司有4家，沪市主板公司有2 家，科创板公司有3家。所属行业来看，基金调研的公司共涉及12个行业，所属电子行业最多，有4家公 司上榜；基础化工、国防军工等紧随其后，分别有2家、2家公司上榜。 从基金调研公司的A股总市值统计，总市值在500亿元以上的共有3家，其中总市值超千亿元的有三峡能 源等，总市值不足100亿元的有11家，分别是江苏华辰、威力传动、太力科技等。 业绩方面，基金调研公司中，公布上半年业绩预告的共有5家，业绩预告类型来看，预增有2只。以净利 润增幅中值来看，净利润增幅最高的是利尔化学，预计净利润中值为2.70亿元，同比增幅为190.62%。 （数据宝） 7月25日基金调研公司一览 | 代码 | 简称 | 基金家数 | 最新收盘价（元） | 近5日涨跌幅（%） ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the express delivery industry [1] Core Insights - The express delivery industry is experiencing a trend of "anti-involution," leading to a revaluation of its value [3] - The report emphasizes the importance of regulatory actions in stabilizing the industry and improving profitability [3] - Short-term price improvements are expected, with potential for further increases during peak seasons [3] Summary by Sections 1. Review of 2021's "Anti-Involution" - In 2021, the express delivery industry saw a significant policy push to protect courier rights, leading to price increases and improved profitability [3][19] - The average price per ticket for the "Tongda" system increased by approximately 0.6 yuan from the low point in August 2021 to January 2022 [3] - By Q4 2021, YTO Express reported a net profit of 1.15 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 202% [3] 2. Current Industry Dynamics - After 2023, the industry has re-entered a phase of price competition due to increased capacity and market share strategies, leading to profitability nearing historical lows [3][39] - The National Postal Administration has clearly opposed "involution-style" competition, indicating a regulatory environment similar to that of 2021 [3][65] - The report suggests monitoring regulatory developments in key production areas like Yiwu and Guangdong for potential price adjustments [3] 3. Short-term and Long-term Outlook - Short-term price improvements are anticipated, particularly in traditionally low-price cities, with potential for broader price increases in peak seasons [3][69] - The report forecasts a shift from price wars to value competition, which could enhance long-term profitability for leading express companies [3][69] - Investment recommendations include focusing on A-shares such as Shentong Express, YTO Express, and Yunda Express, as well as H-shares like Jitu Express and ZTO Express [3] 4. Financial Performance Metrics - In Q1 2025, the net profit per ticket for major companies like Zhongtong, YTO, Yunda, and Shentong fell close to or below historical lows [50] - The report highlights significant cash flow pressures, with some companies experiencing cash flow performance worse than the bottom of 2021 [50] - The report provides elasticity calculations indicating that price increases could significantly enhance profitability for express companies [70]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report highlights the ongoing consolidation in the express delivery sector, with Shentong Express planning to acquire Daniao Logistics for 362 million yuan, aiming to enhance its market position and differentiate itself from competitors [5] - The report emphasizes the recovery in air travel demand and the potential for long-term growth in the aviation sector, driven by macroeconomic improvements and a favorable supply-demand dynamic [13] - The shipping market is expected to benefit from rising oil transport demand due to OPEC+ production increases and a favorable interest rate environment, with a positive outlook for dry bulk shipping as well [14] Summary by Sections Express Delivery - Shentong Express is set to acquire Daniao Logistics for 362 million yuan, which is expected to enhance its market share by 0.8 percentage points and improve brand influence [5] - The express delivery sector shows resilient demand, with terminal prices at historical lows, limiting further downside [13] - Key companies to watch include Zhongtong Express, YTO Express, and SF Express, which are expected to benefit from cyclical recovery and cost control [13] Aviation - The aviation sector is experiencing low long-term supply growth, but demand is anticipated to benefit from macroeconomic recovery, leading to a favorable supply-demand balance [13] - The report notes that the overall passenger transport volume in civil aviation reached 370 million in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 6% [7] - Key companies to focus on include China Southern Airlines, Air China, and HNA Group [13] Shipping - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) reached a new high of 2258 points, up 119% year-to-date, driven by improved consumption expectations and seasonal factors [9] - The report suggests a positive outlook for oil transportation due to OPEC+ production increases and a favorable interest rate environment [14] - Companies to watch include China Merchants Energy Shipping and COSCO Shipping [14] Ports - China's port cargo throughput increased by 2.43% week-on-week, reaching 26.677 million tons, while container throughput rose by 2.61% to 6.64 million TEU [12][77] - The report highlights the stable cash flow and growth potential of port operations, suggesting a focus on companies like Tangshan Port and Qingdao Port [14] Road and Rail - National logistics operations are running smoothly, with rail freight volume increasing by 1.11% and highway freight traffic up by 0.67% [12] - The report indicates that road passenger traffic decreased by 3.92%, while freight volume increased by 2.86% [45]