Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the pork industry, highlighting that while major pork companies are reporting impressive profits, the capital market remains skeptical, leading to many pork stocks being undervalued or stagnant. The profits are primarily driven by cost reductions rather than price increases or expansion, indicating a lack of long-term growth potential [4][6]. Group 1: Industry Performance - Major pork companies like Muyuan Foods reported a net profit of 10.53 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1169.77%, while Wens Foodstuff achieved a net profit of 3.475 billion yuan, up 159.12% [4]. - Despite these profits, many pork stocks are trading at low levels, with some being labeled as "zombie stocks" that fail to capitalize on market uptrends [4]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The profits reported by these companies are attributed to the decline in prices of key raw materials like corn and soybean meal, along with improved production efficiency, rather than an increase in demand or prices [6]. - The industry is facing a significant oversupply issue, with the number of breeding sows at 40.42 million, exceeding the normal holding capacity by 3.6% as of July 2025 [7]. Group 3: Policy and Market Response - The Chinese government has mandated a reduction of 1 million breeding sows by January 2026 among the top 25 pork producers, aiming to address the oversupply issue [7][9]. - However, the effectiveness of these policies is questioned, as smaller producers may not comply, leading to a potential mismatch in supply reduction efforts [10][13]. Group 4: Financial Viability and Future Outlook - The article notes that the self-breeding model in the pork industry has been profitable since May 2024, but as of September 2025, it has started to incur losses, with an average loss of 24.44 yuan per pig [18]. - The average price of pork has dropped to approximately 12.6 yuan per kilogram, while the average cost of production is around 12.8 yuan per kilogram, indicating that further price declines could lead to cash flow losses and necessitate capacity reductions [18][20]. Group 5: Efficiency and Competitive Landscape - The industry's production efficiency has improved significantly, with the number of weaned piglets per breeding sow increasing by 36% from January 2021 to January 2025 [22]. - Despite a reduction in the number of breeding sows, the overall supply of pork may remain high due to increased efficiency, which could continue to suppress pork prices [20][24]. Group 6: Investment Considerations - The article suggests that investors should focus on three key dimensions when evaluating pork companies: total cost, growth rate, and market valuation [26]. - A table summarizing the 2026 output targets, growth rates, and market valuations of 16 listed pork companies is provided, indicating a diverse landscape where no single company presents a perfect investment opportunity [27].

Market Overview - The aquaculture sector experienced a decline of 0.22% on September 30, with Lihua Co. leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3882.78, up 0.52%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13526.51, up 0.35% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the aquaculture sector included: - *ST Tianshan: Closed at 8.34, up 2.08% with a trading volume of 46,400 shares [1] - Shengnong Development: Closed at 18.03, up 1.75% with a trading volume of 128,900 shares [1] - Jinke Dron: Closed at 16.26, up 0.68% with a trading volume of 107,800 shares [1] - Major decliners included: - Lihua Co.: Closed at 21.71, down 2.91% with a trading volume of 139,700 shares [2] - Juxing Agriculture: Closed at 20.29, down 0.93% with a trading volume of 115,700 shares [2] - New Hope: Closed at 9.80, down 0.41% with a trading volume of 304,900 shares [2] Capital Flow - The aquaculture sector saw a net outflow of 163 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 120 million yuan [2][3] - The capital flow for specific stocks showed: - Muyuan Foods: Net outflow of 16.34 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Huaying Agriculture: Net inflow of 10.62 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Shennong Group: Net inflow of 5.14 million yuan from institutional investors [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Huaxin Securities indicates that Muyuan Foods has a leading advantage in breeding scale and cost in the industry, which will help the company further consolidate its position as an industry leader [1] Summary by Category Sales Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company sold 46.91 million pigs, representing a year-on-year increase of 44.8% [1] - The breakdown of sales includes 38.39 million commercial pigs, 8.29 million piglets, and 225,000 breeding pigs, with year-on-year changes of +32.5%, +168.1%, and -27.9% respectively [1] Revenue Generation - The revenue from pig farming reached 75.45 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 34.7% [1] Competitive Advantage - The company maintains a leading breeding scale and continues to enhance its cost advantages, which strengthens its market competitiveness in the meat sector [1] - The affordable pricing of pork is expected to contribute to significant growth in the company's meat business [1]

来源：环球网 根据签约内容，BAF与牧原股份合作建设并运营高科技楼房养殖场，并配套饲料厂。项目建成达产后， 预计年存栏母猪6.4万头，年可向社会提供优质商品猪160万头；饲料厂年产能约60万吨；总投资金额达 12万亿越南盾（约合人民币32亿元）。 未来，双方将以开放合作、互利共赢为原则，稳步推进项目落地，助力当地经济社会发展，为越南市场 提供更健康、新鲜、优质的猪肉产品，推动越南畜牧业的现代化升级和可持续发展。 9月28日，牧原食品股份有限公司与BAF越南农业股份公司（HOSE: BAF）在越南胡志明市正式签署合 作协议。双方将合作在越南西宁省建设并运营高科技楼房养殖项目，发挥在技术、管理与本地资源上的 互补优势，打造高标准、智能化、绿色化的现代养殖示范，助力提升生物安全与环境友好水平，稳定供 应优质健康的猪肉产品。 ...

Core Insights - The report maintains a positive outlook on the pig farming industry, recommending continued investment in pig farming despite recent price declines due to supply pressures [1][7][21] - The report highlights a significant drop in pig prices, with the average price for market pigs at 12.67 yuan/kg, down 3.65% week-on-week [7][32][33] - The report indicates ongoing losses in pig farming, with self-breeding and purchased pig farming yielding losses of 74.11 yuan/head and 236.57 yuan/head respectively [7][37] Industry Overview - The agricultural sector index has decreased by 1.97% week-on-week, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index increased by 1.07% [11] - Since January 2, 2025, the agricultural sector has seen a total increase of 16.95%, compared to a 15.63% increase in the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index [12][11] - The report notes that the pig farming sector is currently in a downward cycle, with supply pressures gradually being released [21] Pig Farming Data Tracking - The number of breeding sows has slightly decreased by 0.80% month-on-month in August, indicating a potential reduction in future supply [22][7] - The average weight of market pigs at the time of sale is reported at 128.55 kg [22][8] - The report emphasizes that the current breeding and purchasing sentiment is declining due to stricter environmental regulations and market conditions [17][21] Poultry Farming Data Tracking - The average price for white feathered chickens is reported at 6.90 yuan/kg, with a slight increase of 0.29% week-on-week [38][41] - The report notes that the poultry industry is facing uncertainties due to ongoing outbreaks of avian influenza in overseas markets [38][39] Animal Health Data Tracking - The demand for animal health products is expected to rebound, with significant growth in vaccine approvals and product launches [46] - The report highlights that the industry is seeing a recovery in sales, with some vaccines showing substantial year-on-year growth [46] Seed Industry Data Tracking - The average prices for wheat, soybean meal, and corn have shown slight increases, indicating a potential upward trend in agricultural input costs [50] - The report emphasizes the importance of food security and the need for advancements in agricultural biotechnology [50] Pet Industry Data Tracking - Pet food exports have decreased by 15.5% year-on-year, with a total export value of 834 million yuan in August 2025 [55][56] - Domestic sales of pet food continue to grow, with significant increases reported on e-commerce platforms [57] - The report suggests that companies with strong domestic sales and innovative product offerings are likely to gain market share [59]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the recommended stocks in the consumer sector, indicating a positive outlook for their performance over the next 12 months [10][11][12][13][16][21][22]. Core Insights - The report highlights nine advantageous sectors within the consumer industry, including agriculture, retail, social services, automotive, textiles and apparel, light industry, food, home appliances, and pharmaceuticals, with specific stock recommendations for each sector [3][6]. - The recommended stocks are expected to benefit from various growth drivers, including market expansion, product innovation, and operational efficiency improvements [10][11][12][13][16][21][22]. Summary by Sector Agriculture - Recommended Stock: Muyuan Foods (牧原股份) - Expected net profits for 2025-2027 are projected at 227.9 billion, 413.8 billion, and 447.7 billion respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 13, 7, and 6 [10][25]. Retail - Recommended Stock: Shangmei Co., Ltd. (上美股份) - Expected net profits for 2025-2027 are projected at 10.9 billion, 13.6 billion, and 16.4 billion respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 33, 27, and 22 [11][25]. Social Services - Recommended Stock: Core International (科锐国际) - Expected net profits for 2025-2027 are projected at 2.95 billion, 3.68 billion, and 4.60 billion respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 20, 16, and 13 [12][25]. Automotive - Recommended Stock: Xusheng Group (旭升集团) - Expected net profits for 2025-2027 are projected at 4.6 billion, 6.2 billion, and 7.7 billion respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 39, 29, and 23 [13][25]. Textiles and Apparel - Recommended Stock: Bosideng (波司登) - Expected net profits for 2025-2027 are projected at 39.3 billion, 43.5 billion, and 47.5 billion respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 12, 11, and 10 [16][25]. Light Industry - Recommended Stock: Pop Mart (泡泡玛特) - Expected net profits for 2025-2027 are projected at 2.35 billion, 8.38 billion, and 12.19 billion respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 35.7, 31.6, and 21.9 [17][25]. Food - Recommended Stock: Qianhe Flavoring (千禾味业) - Expected net profits for 2025-2027 are projected at 0.50 billion, 0.42 billion, and 0.53 billion respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 24.1, 26.9, and 21.4 [18][25]. Home Appliances - Recommended Stock: Roborock (石头科技) - Expected net profits for 2025-2027 are projected at 20.47 billion, 28.87 billion, and 34.24 billion respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 26, 19, and 16 [21][25]. Pharmaceuticals - Recommended Stock: Junshi Biosciences (君实生物) - Expected net profits for 2025-2027 are projected at -1.30 billion, -0.91 billion, and -0.34 billion respectively, with a PE ratio of 66.3 for 2027 [22][25].

Group 1 - The pork concept sector declined by 0.54%, ranking among the top declines in the concept sectors, with major declines seen in companies like Jingji Zhino, Longda Meishi, and Aonong Biological [1] - Among the 11 stocks that rose, Tianyu Biological, Ronioushan, and New Hope saw increases of 1.49%, 1.27%, and 1.03% respectively [1] - The pork concept sector experienced a net outflow of 292 million yuan, with 21 stocks seeing net outflows, and 9 stocks with outflows exceeding 10 million yuan [2] Group 2 - The leading net outflow was from Muyuan Foods, with a net outflow of 208 million yuan, followed by Aonong Biological, Guangming Meat Industry, and Haida Group with net outflows of 31.48 million yuan, 17.91 million yuan, and 16.87 million yuan respectively [2] - The stocks with the highest net inflows included Wens Foodstuff, Jingji Zhino, and Dabeinong, with net inflows of 33.06 million yuan, 14.71 million yuan, and 12.52 million yuan respectively [2] - The pork concept sector's outflow list highlighted Muyuan Foods, Aonong Biological, Guangming Meat Industry, and Haida Group as the top four companies with significant outflows [2][3]

Core Insights - The aquaculture sector saw a slight increase of 0.14% on September 29, with Tianyu Biological leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3862.53, up 0.9%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13479.43, up 2.05% [1] Aquaculture Sector Performance - Tianyu Biological (603717) closed at 8.87, up 1.49% with a trading volume of 107,100 shares and a transaction value of 93.82 million yuan [1] - Huaying Agriculture (002321) closed at 2.98, up 1.36% with a trading volume of 583,200 shares and a transaction value of 172 million yuan [1] - Luoniushan (000735) closed at 6.36, up 1.27% with a trading volume of 182,200 shares and a transaction value of 115 million yuan [1] - Other notable performers include Shengnong Development (002299) at 17.72 (+1.14%), New Hope (000876) at 9.84 (+1.03%), and Muyuan Foods (002714) at 53.00 (+1.01%) [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The aquaculture sector experienced a net outflow of 265 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 1.91 million yuan [2] - Notable net inflows from retail investors were observed in New Hope (000876) with 7.82 million yuan and Huaying Agriculture (002321) with 6.16 million yuan [3] - Conversely, Wens Foodstuffs (300498) faced a significant net outflow of 39.40 million yuan from institutional investors [3]

Summary of the Pig Farming Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The pig farming industry has undergone three significant phases over the past decade: the embryonic phase (2012-2016), the growth phase (2014-2016), and the maturity phase (2016 to present) [2][4][16] - Market understanding, corporate strategies, and stock performance have varied significantly across these phases [2] Key Insights and Arguments - Early stock prices were directly influenced by pig prices, but later investors began to anticipate price changes, as seen in late 2018 to early 2019 when expectations of reduced capacity drove stock prices up [2][9] - The ability to grasp cyclical trends is crucial for corporate growth; companies like Muyuan Foods focus on key variables such as the number of breeding sows to enhance predictive capabilities [2][10] - African swine fever has led to reduced supply, altering the supply-demand relationship and prompting investors to adopt data-driven analysis and cyclical judgment for investment decisions [11] - Muyuan Foods' low-cost expansion strategy allows it to remain profitable during periods of declining pig prices by increasing output to offset lower per-head profits [2][13][14] Investment Logic - The investment logic in the pig farming sector can be summarized by two core elements: cycles and growth [3] - The sector has experienced increasing competition, leading to a more aggressive trading environment and a focus on replicating successful business models [3][18] Industry Phases 1. **Embryonic Phase (2012-2016)**: Limited market understanding and low research value; characterized by passive acceptance [4][7] 2. **Growth Phase (2014-2016)**: Emergence of more pure breeding companies and a complete industry chain; stock prices showed high correlation with pig prices [7][16] 3. **Maturity Phase (2016-present)**: The industry reached its peak with leading companies like Muyuan and Wens showing strong performance; stock prices closely tied to market conditions [7][16] Stock Price Trends - Stock prices in the pig farming sector have shown distinct phases, initially driven by new stock effects and later influenced by market transparency and predictive capabilities [9] - For instance, stock prices rose in anticipation of future price increases despite current low prices due to expected capacity reductions [9] Factors Influencing Corporate Growth - Key factors for corporate growth include the ability to understand cyclical factors and optimize production efficiency, especially in light of strict environmental policies [10][12] Environmental Policy Impact - Strict environmental policies have accelerated industry consolidation and improved overall production efficiency, benefiting larger companies that can adapt [12] Muyuan Foods' Profitability - Muyuan Foods maintained profitability during price declines due to its low-cost strategy, allowing it to offset reduced profits per head by increasing overall output [13] Growth Logic of Muyuan Foods - Muyuan's growth logic is centered on low costs and output volume, which directly impacts its return on equity (ROE) and overall profitability [14] Recommendations for Investment - The recommendation to invest in the pig farming sector in September 2021 was based on anticipated capacity reductions and a subsequent price increase, highlighting a contrarian investment strategy [15] Future Trends for Leading Companies - Leading companies are transitioning from low-cost expansion to focusing on cyclical value creation, indicating a shift towards long-term sustainable growth strategies [21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong buy rating for several companies in the pig farming industry, including Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others [2]. Core Insights - The pig price is experiencing a downward trend due to seasonal demand weakness and government policies aimed at reducing sow production capacity, which may support prices as consumption enters a peak season [1][6]. - The report highlights that the industry is in a capacity release phase, with significant increases in the number of pigs being marketed, while the sales of piglets are seasonally declining [1][6]. - The report emphasizes the importance of cost advantages and strong performance capabilities of leading companies, recommending specific firms for investment [1][6]. Summary by Sections Pig Price Fluctuations and Production Capacity - Pig prices are on a downward trend, with the average price in August 2025 at 13.8 CNY/kg, down 32% year-on-year and 5.6% month-on-month [10]. - The average profit for self-bred pigs in August 2025 is reported at 36.8 CNY per head, a significant decline of 94% year-on-year and 64% month-on-month [14]. - The number of breeding sows decreased by 0.1% month-on-month, indicating a trend of capacity reduction in the industry [14]. Market Supply and Demand - In August 2025, 15 listed pig companies collectively marketed 15.21 million pigs, a year-on-year increase of 23% [32]. - The sales of piglets decreased to 1.21 million heads, reflecting a seasonal decline [32]. - The average weight of marketed pigs fell to 121 kg, down 0.5% year-on-year and 1.3% month-on-month [48]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with clear cost advantages and strong performance, specifically recommending Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff Group, while also suggesting to monitor other companies like Shennong Group and DeKang Agriculture [1][6]. - The report anticipates that the supply-side reforms in the pig farming industry may lead to improved cash flow for leading companies, enhancing their intrinsic value [1][6].