Core Viewpoint - Guosen Securities maintains an "outperform" rating for Pop Mart (09992), highlighting the company's IP operational capabilities and overseas expansion potential, with current performance and valuation at low levels, indicating room for recovery [1] Recent Events - On January 21, the company announced a buyback of 500,000 shares at a price of 192.97 yuan per share, representing 0.0373% of the existing shares [1] - On January 19, the company announced the repurchase and cancellation of 1.4 million shares at a price of 179.60 yuan per share, accounting for 0.1042% of the then-existing shares [1] Management Confidence - Between January 19 and 21, the company management repurchased 1.9 million shares, with 1.4 million already canceled, demonstrating management's confidence in the stock price and the company's future development [2] Product Performance - Recent trends show that the PUCKY Knock Knock series and the Starry People series have sold out on the official website, with significant premiums on second-hand platforms, indicating strong demand [2] - The company is expected to benefit from the upcoming Spring Festival and popular products, enhancing its IP potential [2] IP Development and Overseas Growth - The company's IP creation and operational capabilities continue to be validated, with rapid growth in overseas channels [2] - Initiatives like IP parks and co-branded activities are expected to deepen IP operations, with long-term IP development and commercialization capabilities likely to strengthen [2] - Current performance and valuation are at low levels, suggesting potential for valuation upgrades [2]

每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——国际金价冲破5000美元！7年涨了280%，什么时候才见顶？专家：关键还 看美元，重点关注国际货币体系、降息和科技革命 （记者 曾健辉） 每经AI快讯，德石股份发布公告称，2026年1月23日14:00-15:00，德石股份接受国信证券调研，公司副 总经理、董事会秘书王海斌，证券事务代表张峰参与接待，并回答了投资者提出的问题。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Aibohongsheng (Yangzhou) Equity Investment Fund Partnership (Limited Partnership) has been established with a registered capital of 500 million RMB, focusing on private equity investment, investment management, and asset management activities [1][2]. Group 1: Company Information - The executing partner of the fund is Guoxin Hongsheng Private Fund Management Co., Ltd. [1][2] - The fund was established on January 23, 2026, and is registered as a limited partnership [2]. - The fund's business scope includes private equity investment, investment management, and asset management, which requires registration with the Asset Management Association of China before commencing operations [2]. Group 2: Financial Details - The total investment amount for the fund is 500 million RMB (approximately 75 million USD) [1][2]. - The fund is a collaboration among Guoxin Securities, Yangzhou Yuanchuang Linghang Industrial Investment Co., Ltd., Beijing Aibonuode Investment Management Co., Ltd., and Yangzhou Biomedical Industry Investment Fund (Limited Partnership) [1].

Core Viewpoint - The current hotel industry is at a historical cycle bottom, with stock prices leading the fundamental recovery, suggesting a valuation repair is gradually starting [1] Group 1: Industry Overview - The hotel industry is expected to enter a new normal growth phase, with leading companies showing resilience in performance due to supply-side adjustments and demand policy options [2] - The RevPAR (Revenue per Available Room) for leading hotels is anticipated to rebound as the industry stabilizes, with a shift from occupancy-focused strategies to optimal RevPAR strategies [2] - The hotel REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts) are providing capitalized opportunities for leading companies with operational efficiency advantages [2] Group 2: Company Performance - Leading hotel companies have shown non-linear growth characteristics, driven by cyclical turning points and capital integration, with long-term focus on scale and efficiency [1] - The valuation of leading hotels is influenced by macro supply-demand mismatches, with historical peaks reaching 40-50x during upcycles and dropping to 15-20x during downcycles [1] - Companies like Huazhu have demonstrated significant valuation expansion during mid-upgrade phases, while Atour has shown resilience by leveraging retail business to enhance valuation during industry downturns [1] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The current market dynamics indicate a divergence among companies, with leading firms benefiting from improved pricing power and operational efficiencies [2] - The growth of leisure travel and the decline in business travel demand are contributing to a favorable outlook for the hotel sector, supported by service consumption policies [2] - The ongoing valuation repair phase is characterized by different growth trajectories among leading companies, with Atour and Huazhu leading the charge in performance recovery [3]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic potassium fertilizer prices have increased by 50-100 yuan/ton since the beginning of the year, with current prices at 3300 yuan/ton for domestic 60% white potassium, 3400 yuan/ton for border trade 62% white potassium, and 3500 yuan/ton for port 62% white potassium. The global potassium fertilizer supply and demand are tight, indicating a bullish outlook for the industry over the next 2-3 years [1][2]. Group 1: Domestic Market Analysis - Domestic potassium fertilizer inventory is at a low level, which supports an upward trend in spring planting potassium fertilizer prices. As of January 15, domestic potassium chloride port inventory was 2.51 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 450,000 tons [1]. - The annual potassium fertilizer "big contract" for 2025 was signed at 348 USD/ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2 USD/ton, driven by significant pressure for spring planting supply [1]. - The domestic spring planting consumption accounts for approximately 50% of the annual total, and with low inventory levels, there is potential for prices to rise unexpectedly [1]. Group 2: Global Market Dynamics - The global potassium fertilizer market is experiencing a high-price and tight balance phase, with strong demand from China, India, and Brazil, and low inventory levels contributing to significant price increases [2]. - The supply side is constrained, with no new production capacity expected in 2025, and only limited capacity additions projected for 2026-2027. The cost support for new capacities in Belarus and Canada is above 250 USD/ton FOB [2]. - The nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizer markets are facing supply disruptions, leading to increased price levels, while potassium fertilizer remains a cost-effective option, with current CFR prices in Brazil and Southeast Asia at 360-380 USD/ton [2].

Core Viewpoint - The article chronicles the evolution of Guosen Securities, highlighting its survival and growth amidst the turbulent history of China's securities industry, contrasting its journey with that of other firms that have failed or been absorbed. Group 1: Historical Context - In the early 1990s, Shenzhen was a hub of financial opportunity, with numerous securities firms emerging, including notable ones like Tequ Securities and Bank of China Securities [1][2] - Guosen Securities, originally known as Shenzhen International Trust Investment Company, faced near bankruptcy in 1987 but was revived under the leadership of Li Nanfeng [2][4] - Unlike its contemporaries, Guosen managed to survive the industry's consolidation and became a significant player after the separation of trust and securities in 1994 [4][24] Group 2: Leadership and Strategy - The transformation of Guosen into a national securities firm was spearheaded by Hu Guanjin in 1996, who implemented cost-cutting and revenue-generating strategies [6][25] - Hu Guanjin introduced a performance-based culture, including a "last place elimination" policy, which linked employee compensation to performance [7][26] - Hu Jizhi, who succeeded Hu Guanjin in 2002, further revolutionized the firm by adopting a "quasi-entrepreneurial" model, allowing each department to operate as an independent profit center [8][27] Group 3: Performance and Growth - By leveraging its 68 branches, Guosen achieved a top-five trading volume nationally, despite having significantly fewer branches than competitors like Galaxy Securities [8][27] - The firm was also a pioneer in offering high salaries to attract top talent, with a notable advertisement in 2004 offering a chief analyst position at an annual salary of 500,000 yuan [9][29][30] - This high compensation strategy attracted many leading analysts, rapidly enhancing Guosen's research capabilities [9][31] Group 4: Challenges and Ethical Concerns - The aggressive incentive structure turned Guosen into a "settlement center," where employees focused solely on personal financial gain, often at the expense of long-term company loyalty [13][34] - Following the implementation of the sponsorship system in 2004, Guosen expanded its investment banking division significantly, but this growth also led to ethical issues and scandals [15][36] - The firm faced significant challenges, including the tragic suicide of its CEO Chen Hongqiao in 2015, which highlighted the pressures within the industry [16][37] Group 5: Current Status and Industry Reflection - Guosen Securities has evolved into a large, stable state-owned enterprise, contrasting sharply with the once vibrant and competitive landscape of the 1990s [17][38] - The firm’s survival amidst the collapse of many competitors reflects a broader narrative of the Chinese securities industry's transformation from chaotic growth to regulated stability [18][38]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report indicates a significant improvement in market trading volume and new fund issuance at the beginning of 2026, which is favorable for the fundamentals of financial IT and brokerage sectors. Brokerage firms are expected to continue rapid growth in their brokerage business, while investment banking, asset management, and overseas expansion are likely to enhance the return on equity (ROE) of leading brokerage firms. The insurance sector has also seen a strong start in both individual and bank-insurance channels, with a continued trend of deposit migration, suggesting a positive outlook for the insurance sector in the spring market [4][6]. Summary by Sections Brokerage Sector - Daily average trading volume for stock funds reached 3.44 trillion, down 16% week-on-week; however, the average trading volume since the beginning of 2026 is 3.64 trillion, a 105% increase compared to Q1 2025 [4] - New stock and mixed fund issuance in January 2026 totaled 44.3 billion, a 56% year-on-year increase [4] - The "Public Fund Performance Benchmark Guidelines" was officially released on January 23, 2026, establishing stricter standards for benchmark selection and changes, enhancing performance evaluation and compensation management systems [4] Insurance Sector - The fourth quarter of 2025 saw a stable research value for ordinary life insurance products at 1.89%, slightly down from 1.90% in the previous quarter, indicating a trend towards stability [6] - The individual insurance channel is under pressure due to various factors, but the strong start in 2026 is expected to improve new policy growth, aided by favorable market conditions [6] - The stabilization of long-term interest rates and a favorable equity market are expected to enhance net assets and profitability for insurance companies, with a potential valuation recovery towards 1x PEV for leading firms [6] Recommended Stocks - Recommended stocks include Guangfa Securities, Guotai Junan, Huatai Securities, and China International Capital Corporation H, as well as China Life, China Pacific Insurance, and Ping An Insurance [7]

Core Conclusion - This week, broad-based ETFs experienced concentrated redemptions, and the inflow of leveraged funds slowed down, leading the market into a phase of volatility and consolidation [1][5] - Historically, signals indicating the end of spring rallies often include substantial policy tightening, unexpected external shocks, and deteriorating fundamentals [2][6] - Current policies aim to support market stability and growth, suggesting that the spring rally is not over, with a balanced structural allocation recommended, particularly favoring technology and AI applications, while also paying attention to cyclical sectors, real estate, and consumer services [1][5][7] Market Liquidity and ETF Redemptions - Recent changes in A-share liquidity show marginal shifts, with the minimum margin requirement for financing raised from 80% to 100%, resulting in a slowdown of leveraged fund inflows [1][6] - Broad-based ETFs have seen significant net redemptions, totaling over 500 billion since mid-January, with the CSI 300 index ETF experiencing net redemptions of 325.9 billion and the CSI 1000 index ETF seeing 81.9 billion in redemptions [1][6] Historical Context of Spring Rallies - The end of spring rallies is often signaled by substantial policy tightening, as seen in historical examples such as the increase in stamp duty in May 2007 and regulatory changes in March 2017 [2][6] - External shocks, such as the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis and the recent COVID-19 pandemic, have also led to abrupt market declines [2][6] - Deteriorating fundamentals, such as lower-than-expected economic targets or industrial profit growth, can contribute to the end of spring rallies [2][6] Future Market Outlook - Current policies remain supportive, with liquidity still relatively abundant, and industry and thematic ETF subscriptions remain active despite the increase in margin requirements [7] - The ongoing spring rally is viewed as part of a broader bull market that began in 2024, with expectations for further policy support to boost macroeconomic performance [3][7] - The technology sector, particularly driven by AI applications, is expected to remain a key focus, with opportunities also present in value sectors such as resources and real estate [3][7]

Group 1: Market Impact - The 40-year Japanese government bond yield surpassed 4% on January 20, marking a historical high, with a single-day increase exceeding 25 basis points[1] - Japan's fiscal policy changes, including a supplementary budget expected to increase annual deficits by approximately 5 trillion yen, have raised concerns about sovereign credit risk[13] - The rise in Japanese bond yields has led to a significant capital repatriation effect, decreasing the attractiveness of U.S. Treasuries for Japanese investors[14] Group 2: Asset Performance - From January 17 to January 24, the CSI 300 index fell by 0.63%, the Hang Seng index decreased by 0.36%, and the S&P 500 also dropped by 0.36%[15] - The U.S. dollar index declined by 1.88%, while the offshore yuan appreciated by 0.27% during the same period[15] - Gold prices increased by 7.27%, and silver prices rose by 9.04%, indicating a shift towards precious metals amidst market volatility[15] Group 3: Inventory and Positioning - The latest oil inventory stood at 44,684 million tons, an increase of 44,935 million tons from the previous week[26] - The latest week saw a decrease in long positions in the U.S. dollar by 1,926 contracts, while short positions increased by 762 contracts[31] - The gold ETF size rose to 34.93 million ounces, up by 30,000 ounces from the previous week[31]

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月24日 主动量化策略周报 微盘股领涨，四大主动量化组合本周均战胜股基指数 核心观点 金融工程周报 国信金工主动量化策略表现跟踪： 本周，优秀基金业绩增强组合绝对收益 1.95%，相对偏股混合型基金指数超 额收益 0.30%。本年，优秀基金业绩增强组合绝对收益 9.49%，相对偏股混 合型基金指数超额收益 1.35%。今年以来，优秀基金业绩增强组合在主动股 基中排名 35.77%分位点（1331/3721）。 本周，超预期精选组合绝对收益 4.65%，相对偏股混合型基金指数超额收益 3.00%。本年，超预期精选组合绝对收益 13.46%，相对偏股混合型基金指 数超额收益 5.33%。今年以来，超预期精选组合在主动股基中排名 14.97% 分位点（557/3721）。 本周，券商金股业绩增强组合绝对收益 2.96%，相对偏股混合型基金指数超 额收益 1.31%。本年，券商金股业绩增强组合绝对收益 10.04%，相对偏股 混合型基金指数超额收益 1.91%。今年以来，券商金股业绩增强组合在主动 股基中排名 31.77%分位点（1182/3721）。 本周，成长稳健组合绝对收益 5. ...