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2025年四季度非银板块基金持仓分析:保险券商均获增配,看好居民资金入市下的非银机会
GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES· 2026-01-23 14:12
Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to the industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in the non-bank financial sector [5][14]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the non-bank sector is currently underweight by 3.08 percentage points, despite an increase in holdings during the fourth quarter of 2025. It emphasizes the potential for profit improvement and low valuations in non-bank stocks due to the influx of household funds into the market [3][5]. - The report notes a significant increase in the allocation to the insurance sector, with the proportion rising from 1.03% to 2.13%, while the insurance index saw a substantial increase of 23.42% in the fourth quarter [5][8]. - The report suggests that the brokerage sector has also received increased allocations, with public fund holdings rising from 0.85% to 1.08%, although it remains underweight by 2.30 percentage points [5][8]. Summary by Sections Non-Bank Sector - The non-bank sector remains underweight overall by 3.08 percentage points, with a positive outlook for long-term capital inflows and wealth management opportunities [5][8]. - Specific recommendations include increasing holdings in companies such as Jiufang Zhituo Holdings, Tonghuashun, Guoxin Securities, and others, as they are expected to benefit from the ongoing market dynamics [5][8]. Insurance Sector - The insurance sector's allocation has increased significantly, with a focus on low-valuation stocks as capital continues to flow into the market. The report recommends increasing holdings in China Life, Ping An, and China Pacific Insurance [5][8]. Brokerage Sector - The brokerage sector has seen a rise in public fund holdings, with notable increases in individual stocks like CITIC Securities and Huatai Securities. The report suggests that the retail business share is likely to improve, making these stocks attractive [5][8]. Financial Technology and Diversified Finance - The report indicates a decrease in the allocation to diversified finance and financial technology sectors, but highlights potential investment opportunities in companies like Lakala and Yuexiu Financial Holdings due to ongoing policy support and technological advancements [5][8].
国信证券:新能源车险长期增长空间与战略价值明确 传统龙头更有望享受超额成长
智通财经网· 2026-01-23 07:54
新能源车险高增长背后是当前"高成本、高赔付"压力,其根源在于新能源汽车与传统燃油车在风险结构 上的本质差异 以电池、电机、电控为核心的"三电系统"成本高昂且维修壁垒高,其风险是传统精算模型未曾充分定价 的。智能化部件的引入使得事故责任认定复杂化,同时年轻化、高频使用的车主结构也导致了更高的出 险频率。2024 年行业承保亏损达57 亿元的数据,直观显示出传统车险模式与新能源汽车结构性特征之 间的深刻错配。 智通财经APP获悉,国信证券发布研报称,新能源车险赛道正从初期粗放增长迈向以科技与生态为核心 的高质量竞争阶段。尽管短期盈利承压,但其长期增长空间与战略价值明确。该行认为应重点关注相应 企业在数据科技领域投入领先、与头部新能源主机厂绑定深入、以及在国际化布局上具备先发优势和清 晰路径的头部保险机构。以"老三家"为代表的险企更有可能将当前的规模与场景优势,转化为长期的风 险定价与成本管控能力,从而穿越周期,分享行业结构性变革带来的超额成长。该行建议关注车险业务 结构性重构机遇下头部财险公司的投资机会。 国信证券主要观点如下: 产业周期看财险:我国新能源车险已步入"量价齐升"的黄金发展期 在"双碳"目标的国家战 ...
国信证券:新能源车险进入高质量竞争阶段 数据科技与产业绑定是关键
智通财经网· 2026-01-23 04:08
智通财经APP获悉,国信证券发布研报称,新能源车险赛道正从初期粗放增长迈向以科技与生态为核心 的高质量竞争阶段。尽管短期盈利承压,但其长期增长空间与战略价值明确。该行认为应重点关注相应 企业在数据科技领域投入领先、与头部新能源主机厂绑定深入、以及在国际化布局上具备先发优势和清 晰路径的头部保险机构。 国信证券主要观点如下: 行业盈利模型亟待重构,风险减量、生态融合、标准出海三大核心方向构建竞争壁垒,龙头效应凸显 一是近年来以头部"老三家"为代表的险企大力发展风险减量服务的风险管理体系,赋能业务发展,优化 风控水平。平安产险通过此类技术累计实现减损超百亿元;人保财险则通过"万象云"平台提供动态风险 画像与预警,推动风控从"事后理赔"转向"事前预防"。二是与主机厂的生态融合,以破解数据孤岛与维 修成本难题。车企通过设立或收购保险机构深度介入,而险企则与主机厂在数据共享、维修网络共建等 方面开展战略合作,关系从零和博弈转向共生共赢。最后,跟随中国汽车产业链出海,开辟第二增长曲 线。以人保财险依托安盛网络为比亚迪欧洲车主提供本地化服务为典型,中国险企正以"前端合作、中 台赋能、后台再保"的模式,伴随国产新能源汽车的全 ...
国信证券:汽车行业总量红利消退 AI迭代催生产业升级与投资新机遇
智通财经网· 2026-01-23 02:36
智通财经APP获悉,国信证券发布研报称,汽车行业在AI大模型快速迭代带来变革机遇的同时,也面临 着总量红利逐步消退的压力,行业景气度与板块估值之间的关联逻辑也因此更趋复杂。把握产业升级机 遇,看好AI进展带来的产业升级投资机遇。看好在人工智能技术升级迭代下汽车从传统制造向具身智 能的产业升级趋势。 国信证券主要观点如下: 汽车行业景气度(总量增速)与汽车板块估值的关系如何? 当前汽车行业既面临总量红利逐步消退的压力,又迎来AI大模型快速迭代的变革机遇,行业景气度与 板块估值的关联逻辑更趋复杂。为此,该行采用定性和定量分析相结合的方式,系统性探究汽车行业景 气度与汽车板块估值的关系,提供低增速时代下汽车行业的投资策略和分析框架。 汽车板块估值和景气度有关系吗?有关系且估值前置于景气度 复盘20年汽车历史,但凡高景气度(销量高增长)的年份,汽车板块行情表现一定提升(但并非每次汽 车板块行情的提振都来自于高景气度)。长期看,板块估值和景气度存在正相关关系,同时拟合分析下 来汽车板块月度估值相对月度销量增速有1个月左右的领先性,当前汽车估值隐含未来销量增速预期。 高估值一定由高景气度驱动吗?不一定,景气度是估值的充分 ...
摩根恒生生物科技交易型开放式指数证券投资基金基金份额发售公告
Shang Hai Zheng Quan Bao· 2026-01-22 18:55
Group 1 - The fund being discussed is the Morgan Hang Seng Biotechnology Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF), which is a type of open-ended index securities investment fund [1][2][25]. - The fund's initial offering price is set at RMB 1.00 per share, and the subscription period is from January 26, 2026, to February 6, 2026 [3][5][29]. - The maximum fundraising limit for the fund is RMB 2 billion, and if this limit is reached, the fundraising will close early [5][6]. Group 2 - The fund is managed by JPMorgan Asset Management (China) Limited, with Guosen Securities Co., Ltd. serving as the custodian [2][26][55]. - The fund targets individual investors, institutional investors, qualified foreign investors, and other investors permitted by laws and regulations [2][23]. - The fund aims to passively track the performance of the Hang Seng Biotechnology Index, which reflects the overall performance of the largest 30 biotechnology companies listed in Hong Kong [9][10][24]. Group 3 - Investors can subscribe to the fund through online cash subscription or offline cash subscription methods [7][32]. - The fund's subscription fees are structured such that there are no fees for offline cash subscriptions, while online subscriptions may incur a fee of up to 0.3% [33][34]. - Investors must have a securities account to participate in the fund's subscription, specifically an A-share account or a fund account [37][38].
国信证券:AI应用加速落地 传媒板块迎投资机遇
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-22 09:32
Group 1: Core Insights - The media industry saw an overall increase of 3.44% from January 12 to January 16, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which decreased by 0.57% [1][6] - Key stocks that performed well include Yidian Tianxia, Liou Co., People’s Daily, and Vision China, while ST Fanli, Beitou Technology, and Dongguang Media led the declines [1][6] Group 2: AI Technology Breakthroughs and Applications - Global AI technology is experiencing a significant breakthrough and application surge, with Bilibili launching an all-in-one AI marketing tool "Hualibida" for streamlined advertising [2][9] - Google’s Veo 3.1 has undergone a major upgrade, enhancing its video generation capabilities, while OpenAI released the more powerful GPT-5.2 Codex programming model, improving safety and reliability [2][9] - The Qianwen APP has launched over 400 new features, covering various scenarios such as food delivery, ticket booking, shopping, and AI tutoring [2][9] Group 3: Industry Data Highlights - The domestic film box office reached 259 million yuan from January 12 to January 17, with "The Hidden Kill," "Zootopia 2," and "Avatar 3" being the top three films [3][10] - Popular variety shows include "Riding the Wind 2026" and "Voice of Life: The Youth Season," while the gaming market continues to see strong performances from titles like "Whiteout Survival" and "Gossip Harbor" [3][10] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on three main lines of opportunity driven by AI applications and commercialization, particularly in the AI marketing sector, AI comic and multimodal applications, and the gaming and publishing sectors [4][8][11] - Specific companies to watch include Zhejiang Shusu Culture, Zhongwen Online, Giant Network, and People’s Daily, among others [8][11][13]
调研速递|世嘉科技接待国信证券、天弘基金等机构调研 详解主营业务及对外投资进展
Xin Lang Zheng Quan· 2026-01-22 08:53
Group 1 - The core business of the company is divided into two main segments: mobile communication equipment and precision box systems [2] - The mobile communication equipment segment includes RF devices and antennas, primarily serving outdoor macro base stations with clients like ZTE, Ericsson, and others [2] - The precision box systems segment covers elevator car systems and other specialized equipment, utilized in various industries including elevator manufacturing and medical devices, with notable clients such as Schindler and Thermo Fisher [2] Group 2 - The company currently holds a 20% stake in the target company, with plans to increase its share and achieve control still in the planning stage [3] - The investment will provide financial support for the target company's expansion, facilitate customer resource sharing, and utilize excess production capacity [4] - The target company specializes in optical communication technology, focusing on the R&D, production, and sales of optical communication products, including optical modules and active optical cables [5]
国信证券:首次覆盖创新实业(02788)给予“优于大市”评级 海外项目助力产能高增长
智通财经网· 2026-01-22 07:49
蒙东1750MW绿电并网后,煤电成本优势转变为绿电成本优势,同时实现低碳和降本两个目标 公司1750MW风电光伏项目预计2026年全部并网,发电成本在0.10-0.18元/度,远低于燃煤自备电厂。全 部并网后,绿电年发电量超过55亿度,占公司电解铝用电量50%,公司用电结构将有一半来自低成本绿 电,一半来自低成本褐煤发电,电费降至0.25元/度含税价以下,公司电解铝成本将大幅下降,成本优 势更突出。 公司将在沙特建设50万吨电解铝 智通财经APP获悉,国信证券发布研报称,通过多角度估值,考虑到创新实业(02788)未来5年业绩高增 长,给予公司2026年12-15倍PE估值,得到公司的合理估值区间为32.5-40.7元人民币,对应675-844亿元 市值,相较当前市值有24%-55%溢价空间。首次覆盖给予"优于大市"评级。 国信证券主要观点如下: 背景 公司是一家氧化铝和电解铝生产企业,电解铝营收占比90%。公司成立于2012年,十几年间在蒙东霍林 河建成6330MW燃煤自备电机组和78.8万吨电解铝产能,在山东滨州建成300万吨氧化铝产能,于2025 年11月在港交所上市。 产能地理位置优越,盈利能力行业领 ...
国信证券:首次覆盖创新实业给予“优于大市”评级 海外项目助力产能高增长
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2026-01-22 07:47
国信证券发布研报称,通过多角度估值,考虑到创新实业(02788)未来5年业绩高增长,给予公司2026年 12-15倍PE估值,得到公司的合理估值区间为32.5-40.7元人民币,对应675-844亿元市值,相较当前市值 有24%-55%溢价空间。首次覆盖给予"优于大市"评级。 公司1750MW风电光伏项目预计2026年全部并网,发电成本在0.10-0.18元/度,远低于燃煤自备电厂。全 部并网后,绿电年发电量超过55亿度,占公司电解铝用电量50%,公司用电结构将有一半来自低成本绿 电,一半来自低成本褐煤发电,电费降至0.25元/度含税价以下,公司电解铝成本将大幅下降,成本优 势更突出。 公司将在沙特建设50万吨电解铝 国信证券主要观点如下: 公司凭借下游深加工业务优势,成功在沙特落地铝产业链项目,一期50万吨电解铝预计2027年左右投 产。沙特电费低廉,高耗能行业电费仅3.2美分/度,相当于国内新疆燃煤自备电成本,电解铝项目成本 优势显著,给公司带来长期成长空间,是电解铝行业稀缺成长标的。 盈利预测:公司电解铝产量持续提升,绿电并网进一步降本,充分享受铝价上涨所带来的利润弹性,预 计2025-2027年归属母 ...
国信证券:维持周大福“优于大市”评级 销售增长进一步加速
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2026-01-22 03:44
Core Viewpoint - Guotai Junan Securities maintains an "outperform" rating for Chow Tai Fook (01929), raising the company's net profit forecast for the fiscal years 2026-2028 to HKD 86.37 billion, 96.46 billion, and 105.59 billion respectively, reflecting a positive outlook driven by the increasing proportion of high-margin jewelry products [1] Recent Events - The company reported its unaudited key operating data for October to December 2025, showing an overall retail value growth of 17.8% year-on-year, accelerating from a 4.1% growth in the previous quarter [1] - Retail value growth in mainland China was 16.9%, while Hong Kong, Macau, and other markets saw a growth of 22.9% [1] Retail Performance - Same-store sales in mainland China increased by 21.4%, accelerating by 13.8 percentage points from the previous quarter; franchise stores reported a 26.3% increase, accelerating by 17.7 percentage points [2] - In Hong Kong and Macau, same-store sales grew by 14.3%, with an acceleration of 8.1 percentage points from the previous quarter [2] - High-margin priced jewelry continues to lead growth, with retail value in mainland China increasing by 59.6%, contributing 40.1% to total retail value, an increase of 10.7 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company closed 228 stores during the quarter, ending with a total of 5,813 stores, but expects a reduction in store closures by fiscal year 2027, along with contributions from overseas market expansion [2] Product Innovation and Channel Optimization - In the context of rising gold prices, the company has leveraged product innovation and channel optimization to capture growth in priced gold jewelry, which has been a key driver of same-store sales growth [3] - Products priced by weight have also performed well due to pent-up demand and the year-end peak season [3] - The company plans to continue investing in research and design to strengthen its portfolio of high-margin priced products, while optimizing store structure and introducing new store formats to boost same-store sales and achieve sustained performance growth [3]