Core Points - In September 2025, A-share listed companies in China executed 15 private placements, marking a 200% year-on-year increase, with total funds raised amounting to approximately 144.71 billion yuan, a staggering 10,359% increase year-on-year [1][2] - A total of 33 private placement proposals were disclosed in September 2025, with a proposed fundraising scale of approximately 32.6 billion yuan, reflecting a 37.45% year-on-year increase [1][7] Company Summaries - China Shipbuilding ranked first in actual fundraising, raising 114.77 billion yuan by issuing 3.053 billion shares at a price of 37.59 yuan per share, with funds intended for the merger with China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation [4][5] - ChipLink Integrated raised 5.307 billion yuan through the issuance of approximately 1.314 billion shares at 4.04 yuan per share, with the funds aimed at acquiring 72.33% equity in ChipLink Integrated Circuit Manufacturing (Shaoxing) Co., Ltd. [4][5] - Guosen Securities raised 5.192 billion yuan by issuing shares at 8.25 yuan per share, with the net proceeds intended for the acquisition of 96.08% of Wanhe Securities [4][5] Industry Analysis - The industrial sector led the private placements with 5 instances, raising a total of approximately 122.44 billion yuan, followed by the information technology sector with 4 placements, and the materials sector with 2 placements [6][7] - The information technology and industrial sectors each disclosed 8 private placement proposals in September 2025, with the information technology sector proposing a total fundraising amount exceeding 6.9 billion yuan [14][15]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - This week, the China Securities REITs Index declined by 0.3%. The average weekly price changes of property - type REITs and franchise - type REITs were - 0.3% and - 0.1% respectively. In terms of the comparison of weekly price changes of major indices, China Securities All - Bond Index > China Securities Convertible Bond Index > China Securities REITs Index > CSI 300 Index. Most sectors ended in the red, with municipal facilities and ecological environmental protection leading the gains. As of October 10, the dividend yield of property REITs was 86BP higher than the average dividend yield of China Securities Dividend - paying Stocks, and the spread between the average internal rate of return of franchise - type REITs and the 10 - year government bond yield was 207BP. The first foreign - funded consumer REIT was officially listed, which is a benchmark case for the internationalization, diversification, and specialization of China's public offering REITs market [1]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Secondary Market Trends - **Index Performance**: As of October 10, 2025, the closing price of the China Securities REITs (closing) Index was 826.77 points, with a weekly change of - 0.3%, performing worse than the China Securities All - Bond Index (+0.1%) and the China Securities Convertible Bond Index (0.0%), but better than the CSI 300 Index (- 0.5%). Year - to - date, the ranking of price changes of major indices was: CSI 300 (+17.3%) > China Securities Convertible Bond (+17.0%) > China Securities REITs (+4.7%) > China Securities All - Bond (+0.1%). In the past year, the return rate of the China Securities REITs Index was 5.4% with a volatility of 7.2%. Its return rate was lower than that of the CSI 300 Index and the China Securities Convertible Bond Index, but higher than that of the China Securities All - Bond Index; its volatility was lower than that of the CSI 300 Index and the China Securities Convertible Bond Index, but higher than that of the China Securities All - Bond Index [2][6]. - **Market Capitalization and Turnover**: The total market capitalization of REITs decreased to 220.3 billion yuan on October 10, a decrease of 700 million yuan from the previous week. The average daily turnover rate for the whole week was 0.31%, a decrease of 0.11 percentage points from the previous week [2][10]. - **Sector Performance**: Most sectors ended in the red. From the perspective of different project attributes, the average weekly price changes of property - type REITs and franchise - type REITs were - 0.3% and - 0.1% respectively. From the perspective of different project types, most REITs sectors ended in the red, with municipal facilities and ecological environmental protection leading the gains. The top three REITs in terms of weekly price increase were E Fund Guangzhou Development Zone High - tech Industrial Park REIT (+1.93%), Huatai Zijin Nanjing Jianye Industrial Park REIT (+1.35%), and China Asset Management Jinyu Intelligent Manufacturing Factory REIT (+1.03%) [1][3][17]. - **Trading Activity**: Among different project types, new infrastructure REITs had the highest average daily turnover rate this week, with an average daily turnover rate of 0.7%. Consumer infrastructure REITs had the highest proportion of trading volume this week, accounting for 24.9% of the total REITs trading volume. In terms of capital flow of different REITs products this week, the top three in terms of net inflow of main funds were CICC Principal Agricultural REIT (8.79 million yuan), China Asset Management China Resources Commercial REIT (4.45 million yuan), and Southern Runze Technology Data Center REIT (3.29 million yuan) [3][24][25]. Primary Market Issuance - As of October 10, 2025, there was 1 REIT product in the "accepted" stage, 1 in the "declared" stage, 1 in the "inquired" stage, 4 in the "feedback received" stage, 7 in the "approved and awaiting listing" stage, and 12 first - issued products that had been listed on the exchange [27]. Valuation Tracking - **Valuation Metrics**: REITs have both bond - like and stock - like characteristics. From the bond - like perspective, the annualized cash distribution rate is concerned, and as of October 10, the average annualized cash distribution rate of public offering REITs was 6.5%. From the stock - like perspective, the relative net value premium rate, IRR, and P/FFO are used to judge the valuation of REITs. The relative net value premium rate reflects the relationship between the market value and the fair value of the fund, similar to the PB indicator of stocks; IRR is the internal rate of return calculated by the cash - flow discount method; P/FFO is the current price divided by the cash flow generated from operations. The relative net value premium rate is a long - term perspective, while P/FFO is a short - term perspective [29]. - **Valuation Comparison**: Property - type REITs focus on dividend yield, while franchise - type REITs focus on internal rate of return. As of October 10, 2025, the dividend yield of property REITs was 86BP higher than the average dividend yield of China Securities Dividend - paying Stocks, and the spread between the average internal rate of return of franchise - type REITs and the 10 - year government bond yield was 207BP [32]. Industry News - On September 29, the first foreign - funded consumer REIT, Huaxia CapitaLand Commercial REIT, sponsored by CapitaLand Investment headquartered in Singapore, was successfully listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange. The fund was planned to raise 2.2872 billion yuan, and the cumulative subscription funds before proportional allocation exceeded 309.17 billion yuan. The effective subscription multiples of public investors and offline investors reached 535.2 times and 252.6 times respectively [4][38]. - Huaxia CNOOC Commercial REIT will be officially offered for sale from October 13 to October 14, 2025, with an offering price of 5.281 yuan per share and a planned total fundraising of 1.5843 billion yuan. The underlying asset, Foshan Yingyuehu Ring Mall, is a benchmark self - held property of CNOOC in the mature operation stage, with significant location advantages [38].

Core Insights - The report from Guosen Securities indicates a significant increase in long-term contract prices for mainstream refrigerants in Q4, with R32 rising to 60,200 CNY/ton, an increase of 9,600 CNY/ton or 18.97%, and R410A increasing to 53,200 CNY/ton, up by 3,600 CNY/ton or 7.26% [1][2] Price Trends - R32 shows strong performance with increasing foreign trade demand due to the release of domestic air conditioning companies' overseas capacity and the need for environmentally friendly refrigerants, leading to a tight market and higher pricing [3] - The external trade price for R32 has been raised to 62,000 CNY/ton, while domestic prices have increased to a range of 61,000-63,000 CNY/ton [3] - R134a prices have also risen, with the price range now at 53,000-54,000 CNY/ton due to ongoing quota consumption [3] Production and Export Trends - According to industry reports, air conditioning production for domestic sales is expected to grow in the first half of 2025, with strong performance anticipated due to seasonal demand and new policies [4] - However, there is a projected decline in production for household air conditioners in September and October 2025, influenced by high base effects from the previous year and reduced production expectations [4] - Export data shows a cumulative export of 47.81 million units from January to August 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.0%, although a downward trend has been observed since May [4] Monthly Production Adjustments - Production forecasts for October to December 2025 indicate a decrease in production, with October's production at 5.565 million units, down 11.5% year-on-year, but with adjustments showing an increase from previous predictions [5] - Export production for October is projected at 596,000 units, down 9.4% year-on-year, with improvements in the decline rate for November and December [5] Demand Drivers - The development of AI technology and the shift towards liquid cooling solutions in data centers are expected to drive demand for upstream fluorinated liquids and refrigerants, as traditional cooling methods reach their limits [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the securities industry [3][8]. Core Views - The securities sector is expected to see a recovery in performance due to active market trading in the third quarter, with valuations currently at reasonable levels, indicating potential for valuation recovery [8][28]. - The average daily stock trading volume in the two markets reached 25,869 billion yuan, a significant increase of 19% week-on-week, reflecting a strong recovery in trading activity post-holiday [6][15]. - In September, the equity financing scale reached 43.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 109%, indicating robust activity in the investment banking sector [7][20]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The report notes that during the first week after the holiday, the securities sector performed actively, with the broker index rising by 0.5%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1 percentage point [5][10]. - The broker index's price-to-book ratio stands at 1.48x, maintaining a level consistent with the previous week and within the 48th percentile of the past decade [5][10]. Industry Weekly Data - **Brokerage Business**: The average daily stock trading volume in September was 23,927 billion yuan, reflecting a month-on-month growth of 5% and a year-on-year increase of 154% [6][15]. - **Investment Banking**: In September, 28 companies engaged in equity financing, with a total financing scale of 437 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 109% [7][20]. - **Capital Intermediation**: As of October 10, the margin trading balance reached 24,456 billion yuan, a 2.1% increase from the previous period, continuing to set new highs for the year [7][23]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on internet brokers with strong beta attributes, such as Zhina Compass, and recommends attention to Jiufang Zhitu Holdings in the Hong Kong market due to their strong performance certainty amid active trading [8][28].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The non-bank financial sector has experienced an excess decline compared to the overall A-share index since late August, with valuations and institutional holdings at low levels. The brokerage sector shows good performance prospects, while the insurance sector has certain dividend attributes. The non-bank financial sector is seen as having both offensive and defensive characteristics, and there are strategic opportunities for investment in the brokerage sector, particularly in undervalued life insurance stocks and high dividend yield companies like Jiangsu Jinzu [5] Summary by Sections Brokerage Sector - The average daily trading volume of stock funds reached 3.19 trillion yuan, up 15.9% month-on-month. In September, 2.94 million new A-share accounts were opened, a year-on-year increase of 61% and a month-on-month increase of 11%. The total number of new accounts opened from January to September reached 20.15 million, up 50% year-on-year [6] - The adjustment of margin financing collateral ratios is a routine measure and primarily affects new financing scales without impacting existing stock. The brokerage sector's performance in Q3 is expected to show a year-on-year growth of 53.1% in net profit attributable to the parent company, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1% [6] - The report recommends three main lines of brokerage stocks: Guosen Securities, which benefits from retail advantages and the Hainan cross-border asset management pilot; Huatai Securities and CICC, which excel in overseas and institutional business; and GF Securities and Dongfang Securities H, which have significant wealth management advantages [6] Insurance Sector - The implementation of the "reporting and operation integration" policy for non-auto insurance business is expected to lead to a decline in the comprehensive cost ratio (COR) for property insurance companies. The regulatory measures are anticipated to guide the industry towards more standardized development and lower insurance rates [7] - Long-term interest rates remain stable, alleviating net asset pressures, while the expected return on equity assets is boosted, leading to a potential improvement in the interest margin for insurance companies in the medium to long term. The report recommends undervalued stocks such as China Pacific Insurance and Ping An Insurance [7] Recommended and Beneficiary Stocks - Recommended stocks include Huatai Securities, GF Securities, Guosen Securities, Dongfang Securities H, CICC H, Dongfang Caifu, Guotai Junan; China Pacific Insurance, Ping An Insurance; Jiangsu Jinzu, Hong Kong Stock Exchange [8]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guosen Securities suggests that the opportunity for the third wave of gold may be triggered by a peak in the overseas artificial intelligence technology wave, but currently, there are no signs of this occurring [1][5]. Group 1: Gold as an Asset Class - Gold plays a crucial role in asset allocation for diversification and risk hedging, with optimal allocation ratios being a topic of market interest [1]. - Ray Dalio suggests a reasonable allocation of 15% for gold, while Jeffrey Gundlach believes it could be as high as 25%, especially in the context of high inflation and government debt [1]. - The report emphasizes that holding cash and bonds is not an effective wealth preservation strategy in the current economic environment, making gold a valuable independent asset [1]. Group 2: Historical Performance and Allocation Strategies - A simple rebalancing model indicates that since 2013, a portfolio with a 25% allocation to stocks and bonds has underperformed compared to a portfolio heavily weighted in gold, which has shown a net value of 5.84 [2]. - For household asset allocation, a gold allocation of 2-10% is deemed appropriate, with historical data showing that a 10% allocation resulted in a cumulative return of 138.50% compared to 126.10% for portfolios without gold [3]. Group 3: Institutional Asset Management - For institutional asset management products, gold allocation can be increased to over 10%, with optimal allocation averaging 18% based on mean-variance optimization from 1972 to 2014 [4]. - Gold has demonstrated robust performance in various inflation environments, particularly when annual inflation exceeds 5%, and it shows positive or low negative correlation during downturns in stock, bond, and commodity markets [4]. Group 4: Current Market Outlook - Guosen Securities maintains a positive long-term outlook for gold, citing insufficient global safe-haven assets post the Ukraine crisis and concerns over the credibility of the Federal Reserve [5]. - The report notes that the third wave opportunity for gold may arise from a shift in capital flows due to a peak in the AI technology sector, although no such signals have been observed yet [5].

Core Viewpoint - The macroeconomic research by Guosen Securities indicates that following the U.S. government's announcement of "reciprocal tariffs," the U.S. dollar index has weakened significantly, while global risk aversion has increased, driving up gold prices. The uncertainty in trade has led to a bleak global growth outlook, with commodities generally declining, particularly global pricing varieties experiencing larger drops than domestic ones [1][3]. Trade Relations - As the fourth quarter approaches, China and the U.S. are set to enter a new round of intensive negotiations regarding trade issues. The medium to long-term uncertainty in trade relations between the two countries remains high. A review of the key events from the first round of trade confrontations in April-May this year can provide insights into potential market fluctuations in the next phase [2]. - In April, the Trump administration initiated a trade war by imposing a 34% "reciprocal tariff" on Chinese goods. Following China's response, the U.S. increased tariffs to 125% within a few days. By May, under internal pressure, the U.S. softened its stance and expressed willingness to resolve trade disputes through diplomatic channels, leading to a temporary easing of tensions [2]. Dollar and Commodities - The announcement of "reciprocal tariffs" has led to a significant decline in the U.S. dollar index. Concurrently, global risk aversion has surged, further boosting gold prices. The uncertain trade environment has resulted in a pessimistic global growth outlook, with commodities generally weakening, especially global pricing varieties experiencing more significant declines than domestic ones [3]. - Looking ahead, under the trade conflict, gold prices are more likely to rise while other commodities remain weak. The impacts of trade policy conflicts tend to clear in the short term, potentially leading to overshooting opportunities. It is noteworthy that current trade negotiations are primarily focused on U.S.-China relations, differing from the broader global impact of the April tariff announcements [3]. Bond Market Outlook - The bond market is expected to see a phase of rebound due to fundamental pressures. During the April trade tensions, bond yields fell by 18 basis points. Historical experiences suggest that sudden tariff and sanction events lead to rapid pricing in the bond market. Following the tariff policy announcement, the bond market experienced fluctuations exceeding 5 basis points within two trading days, but the impact diminished significantly as trade sanctions escalated [4][5]. - Looking forward, the probability of a bond market rebound in October appears higher. Economic pressures in July and August suggest that monetary policy may continue to ease. Additionally, the current 10-1 yield spread of 40 basis points is above the historical median, reflecting a relatively neutral economic outlook, with limited upward pressure on long-term yields under stable monetary policy conditions [5].

Core Insights - The report indicates that despite the recent escalation in trade tensions, the medium-term outlook for the A-share market remains positive, with a focus on a style rebalancing towards traditional value sectors in Q4, such as real estate, brokerage, and consumer stocks [3][4][6]. Impact of Trade Tensions - The report highlights that the recent threats of tariffs from the U.S. have led to significant declines in major U.S. stock indices, with the Dow Jones falling by 878.82 points (1.90%), the S&P 500 down by 182.60 points (2.71%), and the Nasdaq dropping by 820.20 points (3.56%) on October 10 [3][4]. - The report notes that Trump's statements regarding potential tariffs, including a proposed 10% baseline tariff on all imports and up to 60% on goods from China, have heightened concerns about global trade tensions and inflation [4]. A-share Market Resilience - The report references past instances where A-shares experienced significant declines due to trade tensions, such as a 7.34% drop in the Shanghai Composite Index in April 2025, but subsequently rebounded due to supportive domestic monetary policies [5][6]. - It emphasizes that the current policy environment remains conducive to a bullish outlook for A-shares, with expectations for policy measures to counteract price declines [5]. Style Rebalancing in Q4 - The report observes a notable shift from technology stocks to value stocks in the A-share market, with the ChiNext and STAR 50 indices falling by 5.61% and 4.55%, respectively, while real estate and brokerage indices saw slight increases [6]. - Historical comparisons are made to previous market phases, indicating that increased volatility often accompanies a shift back to value stocks, as seen in the second phase of the 1999 bull market and during periods of heightened volatility in 2020 [6].

Core Insights - The report highlights the performance tracking of Guosen Securities' active quantitative strategies, indicating that the "Growth and Steady" portfolio has achieved a year-to-date return of 62.19% [1][12][39]. Summary by Sections Excellent Fund Performance Enhancement Portfolio - This portfolio aims to outperform the median return of actively managed equity funds, with a year-to-date absolute return of 29.30% and a relative excess return of -4.01% against the mixed equity fund index [1][23][17]. - The portfolio's performance for the week was -0.98%, with a relative excess return of 0.54% compared to the mixed equity fund index [1][23][16]. Expected Selection Portfolio - The expected selection portfolio has achieved a year-to-date absolute return of 47.41% and a relative excess return of 14.10% against the mixed equity fund index [1][31][29]. - For the week, the portfolio's absolute return was 0.22%, with a relative excess return of 1.74% [1][31][16]. Broker's Golden Stock Performance Enhancement Portfolio - This portfolio has a year-to-date absolute return of 34.07% and a relative excess return of 0.76% against the mixed equity fund index [1][38][34]. - The weekly performance showed an absolute return of -1.51% with a relative excess return of 0.01% [1][38][16]. Growth and Steady Portfolio - The growth and steady portfolio has achieved a year-to-date absolute return of 54.84% and a relative excess return of 21.53% against the mixed equity fund index [1][42][39]. - For the week, the portfolio's absolute return was -0.08%, with a relative excess return of 1.44% [1][42][16]. Performance Monitoring of Public Funds - The report provides insights into the distribution of stock and actively managed fund returns, indicating that 55% of stocks rose while 45% fell during the week, with a median return of 0.41% for stocks and -1.63% for actively managed funds [1][46][43]. - Year-to-date, the median return for stocks was 22.40%, with 83% of stocks rising, while actively managed funds had a median return of 31.74%, with 98% rising [1][46][43].

Core Viewpoint - The report tracks the performance of various active quantitative strategies, highlighting their absolute and relative returns against benchmarks, specifically focusing on the "Excellent Fund Performance Enhancement Portfolio," "Super Expected Selection Portfolio," "Brokerage Golden Stock Performance Enhancement Portfolio," and "Growth Stability Portfolio" [2][3][5]. Group 1: Performance Overview - The "Excellent Fund Performance Enhancement Portfolio" achieved an absolute return of -0.98% this week and a year-to-date return of 29.30%, with a relative excess return of 0.54% against the mixed equity fund index [1][9]. - The "Super Expected Selection Portfolio" recorded an absolute return of 0.22% this week and 47.41% year-to-date, outperforming the mixed equity fund index by 1.74% [1][17]. - The "Brokerage Golden Stock Performance Enhancement Portfolio" had an absolute return of -1.51% this week and 34.07% year-to-date, with a slight excess return of 0.01% against the mixed equity fund index [1][18]. - The "Growth Stability Portfolio" posted an absolute return of -0.08% this week and 54.84% year-to-date, outperforming the mixed equity fund index by 1.44% [1][28]. Group 2: Strategy Summaries - The "Excellent Fund Performance Enhancement Portfolio" aims to benchmark against the median return of public active equity funds, utilizing quantitative methods to enhance performance based on the holdings of top-performing funds [5][32]. - The "Super Expected Selection Portfolio" selects stocks based on positive earnings surprises and analyst upgrades, focusing on both fundamental and technical criteria to build a robust portfolio [11][39]. - The "Brokerage Golden Stock Performance Enhancement Portfolio" leverages the brokerage golden stock pool, optimizing the selection to maintain alignment with the performance of public equity funds [14][43]. - The "Growth Stability Portfolio" employs a two-dimensional evaluation system for growth stocks, prioritizing those with upcoming earnings announcements to capture potential excess returns [21][47].