Summary of Zhongmin Resources Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - The conference call pertains to Zhongmin Resources, focusing on the lithium and copper mining sectors, as well as small metals like gallium and germanium. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Cost Structure and Reduction Measures** - The total cost of lithium carbonate is approximately 68,000 RMB/ton, with production costs around 50,000 RMB/ton. Cost reduction measures could lower costs by about 10,000 RMB/ton, with most measures already implemented to enhance profitability [2][5]. 2. **Lithium Exploration Revenue Growth** - Lithium exploration business generated 350 million RMB in revenue in Q1, with a gross profit of 230 million RMB, reflecting over 90% year-on-year growth. The new beneficiation plant in Zimbabwe is expected to increase capacity steadily throughout the year [2][3]. 3. **Copper Mining Project Timeline** - The copper mining project is scheduled to commence production in July 2026, aiming for an emergency capacity of 60,000 tons. The company plans to expand copper production capacity to over 100,000 tons within 3-5 years [2][3][20]. 4. **Gallium and Germanium Business Outlook** - The gallium and germanium business is expected to achieve qualified product sales by Q4 this year, with overseas market prices approximately 1.5 times higher than domestic prices. The company plans to increase production annually [2][4]. 5. **Production and Profitability Expectations** - The total production for the year is expected to reach around 900 tons, with gross profit anticipated to increase slightly from last year's 1.1 billion RMB. The company has refrained from raising prices this year to ease market sentiment, but moderate price increases may occur next year [2][10]. 6. **Small Metals Development Plans** - The company holds various mining rights for tantalum, niobium, and rare earths, with plans to gradually develop small metals with price advantages, particularly in high-tech applications [3][13][16]. 7. **Capital Expenditure and Project Focus** - The company faces significant capital expenditure pressures, with total investments around 1 billion USD. Short-term simultaneous project development is challenging, leading to a focus on existing resource projects [2][15][33]. 8. **Market Demand for Cesium** - The demand for cesium and its derivatives is expected to grow, particularly in high-tech fields. The global cesium market is projected to expand from approximately 2,000 tons to 4,000-5,000 tons [3][16]. 9. **Taxation and Cost Reduction Potential** - Current taxation is relatively low, with resource tax based on a 7% rate of export prices. As export prices decline, the tax burden is also decreasing [8][9]. 10. **Future Development Strategy** - The company aims to leverage its technical advantages in geological exploration and expand into other metals, including tantalum, beryllium, and rare earths, while focusing on the African market [37][38]. Additional Important Information - The company is transitioning a 50 MW solar project to focus on core operations, divesting low-efficiency assets to enhance investment returns [18]. - The copper mining project is progressing as planned, with a goal to double production within five years [22]. - The company has completed product certifications with CNOOC, aiming to expand its market presence in China [17]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the conference call, highlighting the company's strategic direction, financial performance, and market outlook.

Core Viewpoint - The Shenzhen Upstream Industry Index has shown a recent increase, indicating potential investment opportunities in the upstream sector of the market [1] Group 1: Index Performance - The Shenzhen Upstream Industry Index rose by 1.32%, closing at 3951.01 points, with a trading volume of 16.078 billion yuan [1] - Over the past month, the index has increased by 5.14%, while it has decreased by 4.57% over the last three months and is down 0.09% year-to-date [1] Group 2: Index Composition - The Shenzhen Upstream Industry Index is composed of companies from the upstream, midstream, and downstream sectors, providing diverse investment options for investors [1] - The index is based on a reference date of December 31, 2002, with a base point of 1000.0 [1] Group 3: Top Holdings - The top ten weighted stocks in the Shenzhen Upstream Industry Index include: - Ganfeng Lithium (5.27%) - Shanjin International (4.81%) - Yun Aluminum (4.64%) - Tianqi Lithium (4.54%) - Shenhuo Co. (4.0%) - Feilihua (3.7%) - Tongling Nonferrous Metals (3.66%) - China Rare Earth (3.62%) - Zhongmin Resources (3.17%) - Tianshan Aluminum (3.13%) [1] Group 4: Sector Allocation - The sector allocation of the index holdings is as follows: - Industrial metals: 34.91% - Rare metals: 32.53% - Precious metals: 10.22% - Coal: 6.42% - Other non-metal materials: 5.57% - Oil and natural gas: 3.86% - Other nonferrous metals and alloys: 3.39% - Oil and gas extraction and field services: 3.10% [2] Group 5: Sample Adjustment - The index samples are adjusted semi-annually, with adjustments occurring on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December each year [2] - The sample adjustment typically does not exceed 20%, with special circumstances allowing for temporary adjustments [2]

Core Viewpoint - Company held an earnings briefing on May 9, 2025, to discuss its financial performance and strategic direction for 2024 and beyond [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 5.364 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 757 million yuan, with a basic earnings per share of 1.0498 yuan [3]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 1.536 billion yuan and a net profit of 135 million yuan, with a basic earnings per share of 0.1868 yuan [3]. - As of December 31, 2024, total assets were 17.193 billion yuan, and net assets attributable to shareholders were 12.181 billion yuan [3]. Business Segments - The rare light metal (cesium and rubidium salt) segment saw significant growth, with a revenue of 1.395 billion yuan in 2024, up 24.16% year-on-year, and a gross profit of 1.092 billion yuan, up 50.98% [4]. - The cesium and rubidium fine chemical business generated 728 million yuan in revenue, while the formic acid cesium business brought in 667 million yuan [4]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on enhancing its copper production capabilities, aiming for an integrated capacity of 60,000 tons per year at the Kitumba copper mine by 2025 [5]. - The company sold the Kachihishi copper mine to a third party to allocate funds for other project developments [6]. - The Tsumeb smelter in Namibia contains 746.21 tons of germanium, with ongoing projects to extract and utilize these resources [7][8]. Future Growth Drivers - The company plans to develop a multi-metal resource pool focusing on new energy metals, bulk metals, and rare strategic metals, with an emphasis on lithium and copper [10]. - The company aims to complete the construction of a multi-metal recycling project with a designed capacity for germanium and gallium, which is expected to provide new profit growth points [9]. Industry Outlook - The lithium and cesium-rubidium sectors are expected to continue showing resilience and sustainable growth despite complex supply-demand dynamics [11]. - The company reported a significant increase in lithium salt sales, reaching 39,477 tons in 2024, up 164% year-on-year [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for several companies including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Yunnan Aluminum, Huayou Cobalt, and others [4][7]. Core Views - The macroeconomic environment shows mixed signals with U.S. non-farm employment exceeding expectations while GDP contracted, leading to concerns about economic stagnation. However, domestic monetary easing measures are expected to support industrial metal prices [2][3]. - The report highlights a shift in the supply-demand balance for cobalt and lithium, with cobalt prices expected to rise due to supply constraints, while lithium prices are under pressure from high inventory levels [3]. - Precious metals are viewed positively due to increased geopolitical tensions and ongoing central bank gold purchases, which are expected to support gold prices in the medium to long term [3]. Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - Copper: The SMM import copper concentrate index decreased by $43.11 per dry ton, indicating a tightening supply situation. The operating rate of copper cable enterprises fell to 83.49%, reflecting weak demand [2]. - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity remains stable, with a notable decrease in social inventory by 16,000 tons, indicating a shift from accumulation to depletion [2]. - Zinc: The report notes fluctuations in zinc prices influenced by macroeconomic factors and trade uncertainties, with LME zinc prices recorded at $2,601 per ton [2][47]. Energy Metals - Cobalt: The report indicates ongoing supply tightness due to Congo's export ban, with prices expected to enter a new upward phase as inventory levels decrease [3]. - Lithium: Demand remains weak with downstream material manufacturers waiting for further price declines, while supply remains high, leading to continued downward pressure on prices [3]. Precious Metals - Gold: The report notes that the Chinese central bank has increased its gold reserves for six consecutive months, supporting a bullish outlook for gold prices amid rising geopolitical tensions [3]. - Silver: Although silver prices have declined, they are expected to rebound more significantly than gold if gold prices increase, due to silver's industrial applications [3]. Key Companies and Forecasts - The report provides earnings forecasts and valuations for key companies, with Zijin Mining projected to have an EPS of 1.57 in 2025 and a PE ratio of 11 [4]. - Other recommended companies include Luoyang Molybdenum, Yunnan Aluminum, and Huayou Cobalt, with similar positive outlooks on their earnings and valuations [4].

Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of CNY 5.364 billion and a net profit of CNY 757 million, with a basic earnings per share of CNY 1.0498 [3] - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of CNY 1.536 billion and a net profit of CNY 135 million, with a basic earnings per share of CNY 0.1868 [4] Rare Metals Business - The rare light metal (cesium and rubidium salt) segment generated a revenue of CNY 1.395 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 24.16%, with a gross profit of CNY 1.092 billion, up 50.98% [5] - The cesium and rubidium fine chemical business contributed CNY 728 million in revenue, while the formic acid cesium business generated CNY 667 million [5] Copper Production Plans - The company aims to complete a copper production capacity of 60,000 tons per year by 2025, focusing on the Kitumba copper mine [6] - The Kachihishi copper mine has an estimated copper metal content of 60,000 tons and has been sold to a third party for further project funding [6] Geochemical Resources - The Tsumeb smelter in Namibia contains 746.21 tons of germanium with an average grade of 253.51 g/t, and a multi-metal recycling project is underway to enhance resource value [7] - The project aims to produce 33 tons of germanium ingots, 11 tons of industrial gallium, and 10,900 tons of zinc ingots annually [7] Future Growth Drivers - The company plans to develop a competitive landscape driven by new energy metals, bulk metals, and rare strategic metals, with a focus on lithium and copper [8] - The lithium salt sales reached 39,477 tons in 2024, a 164% increase year-on-year, supported by resource advantages and cost-reduction strategies [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and profit in the cesium and rubidium segment, while lithium salt production costs are decreasing [2] - The company achieved a revenue of 5.36 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 10.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 760 million yuan, down 65.7% year-on-year [6][12] - The company’s self-supplied lithium ore advantage is becoming more prominent, with lithium salt sales from its own mines reaching 39,477 tons, a year-on-year increase of 164% [7] - The rare light metal (cesium and rubidium) segment saw a revenue increase of 24.16% year-on-year, with gross profit rising by 50.98% [8] - The company is expanding its copper resource layout, having acquired a 65% stake in the Kitumba copper mine project in Zambia [8] Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 78.1%, and a net profit of 210 million yuan, up 53.0% year-on-year [6] - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 1.54 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.4%, but a net profit decrease of 47.4% year-on-year [6] - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 869 million, 1.55 billion, and 1.99 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 24, 14, and 11 times [9] Production Capacity - By the end of 2024, the company had a total of 4.18 million tons per year of mining capacity and 66,000 tons per year of battery-grade lithium salt production capacity [7]

Core Viewpoint - The rapid decline in lithium salt prices is seen as a necessary phase for market clearing, with significant implications for upstream mining companies as operational pressures increase [1] Supply - The cost of lithium mining has decreased significantly, leading to a drop in Australian lithium prices, which fell to $743 per ton, a 9% decrease since April [1] - Some Australian mines reported substantial reductions in production costs, with Marion lithium mine's Q1 FOB cost dropping to 708 AUD/ton from 1076 AUD/ton in the second half of 2024 [1] - The overall cost reduction in lithium mining is expected to continue, but the survival space for Australian mines is shrinking due to lower lithium prices [1] Inventory - As of April 30, China's lithium carbonate inventory reached 96,000 tons, the highest level since 2021, indicating a supply surplus in the market [2] - The inventory held by smelters and downstream sectors also reached record highs, with smelters holding 51,000 tons and downstream holding 45,000 tons [2] Production - The rapid decline in lithium salt prices has led to a cost inversion for lithium salt refining companies, with production cash costs exceeding market prices [3] - In April, China's lithium carbonate production fell to 74,000 tons, a 7% decrease month-on-month, while lithium hydroxide production decreased by 1% to 25,000 tons [3] - The reduction in production is expected to intensify as the cost inversion deepens, particularly affecting higher-cost mining operations [3] Demand - Demand for lithium salts is primarily driven by the electric vehicle and energy storage battery markets, with a 42% year-on-year increase in China's new energy vehicle wholesale sales in the first four months of 2025 [4] - Global energy storage installations are projected to grow by 36% in 2025, reaching 216 GWh [4] - Despite some preemptive inventory accumulation due to tariff expectations, the overall growth rate for lithium salt demand remains robust and is expected to outpace supply growth [4]

Core Insights - The electric vehicle sector showed a recovery in Q1 2025 after a decline in Q4 2024, with significant improvements in revenue and net profit [1][2][4] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the sector's revenue reached 790.2 billion yuan, reflecting a 9% increase year-on-year but a 26% decrease quarter-on-quarter [1][2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders in Q1 2025 was 40.9 billion yuan, marking a 38% increase year-on-year and a 41% increase quarter-on-quarter [1][2] - The gross margin in Q1 2025 was 17%, a slight decrease of 1 percentage point year-on-year but an increase of 4 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [4] Group 2: Profit Contribution by Segment - In Q1 2025, the profit contribution from batteries was 38%, down 4 percentage points year-on-year, while the contribution from complete vehicles was 37%, down 7 percentage points [1][2] - The profit share from midstream materials remained stable at 8%, while lithium carbonate saw a 10% increase in profit contribution to 4% [1][2] Group 3: Market Trends and Outlook - The overall market for electric vehicles remained robust, with global sales reaching 5.82 million units in Q4 2024, a 33% increase year-on-year [2] - The industry is expected to grow by 25% in 2025, driven by a 25% increase in domestic electric vehicle sales and more than double growth in emerging markets and Europe for energy storage [4][5] - The report highlights a positive outlook for leading battery manufacturers and material suppliers, with specific recommendations for companies like CATL, BYD, and others [5]

Performance Overview - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 5.364 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.80%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 757 million yuan, down 65.72% [1] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 5.00 yuan for every 10 shares, with a dividend yield of 1.73% as of April 24, 2025 [1] - In Q1 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 1.536 billion yuan, an increase of 36.37% year-on-year but a decrease of 14.38% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 135 million yuan, down 47.38% year-on-year and 36.19% quarter-on-quarter [1] Impact of Lithium Price Decline - The overall revenue decline in 2024 was primarily due to the drop in lithium prices, with the lithium battery raw material development and utilization business generating revenue of 3.129 billion yuan, down 26.25% [2] - The average spot price of lithium carbonate fell by 65.0% year-on-year to 90,510 yuan/ton, with a further decline of approximately 22.6% from the beginning of the year [2] - The company achieved lithium salt sales of 42,649 tons, an increase of 145.01%, with self-owned mines contributing 39,477 tons, up 164% [2] Profitability Trends - In 2024, the company's gross margin and net margin were 32.75% and 14.05%, respectively, with significant declines of 22.06 percentage points and 22.57 percentage points [2] - The gross margin for the lithium battery raw material business dropped by 39.15 percentage points to 18.62%, primarily due to falling lithium prices [2] - The rare light metals resource development business saw a gross margin increase of 13.91 percentage points to 78.29%, attributed to higher product prices [2] Resource Integration and Development - The company has a total of 418,000 tons/year of mining capacity and 66,000 tons/year of battery-grade lithium salt capacity [3] - Plans include completing the construction of a 1 million tons/year lithium mine in Canada by 2025 and a 30,000 tons/year integrated mining and processing facility in Africa by 2026 [3] - The company acquired a 65% stake in the Kitumba copper mine in Zambia, with a design scale of 3.5 million tons/year, and plans to start construction of the smelting project in May 2025 [3] Investment Outlook - As a leading lithium and rare salt producer, the company aims to enhance resource self-sufficiency and reduce production costs through acquisitions and mining [4] - The company is expected to achieve operating revenues of 5.65 billion, 7.24 billion, and 10.84 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 5.3%, 28.2%, and 49.8% respectively [4] - Projected net profits for the same period are 930 million, 1.25 billion, and 1.95 billion yuan, with growth rates of 23.1%, 34.5%, and 55.7% respectively [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Huayou Cobalt [4][5]. Core Insights - Industrial metals are experiencing a rebound in prices due to ongoing inventory depletion, with LME aluminum, copper, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin prices showing increases of +1.11%, +0.83%, +0.57%, +1.28%, +0.35%, and +1.79% respectively [1][2]. - The report highlights the impact of macroeconomic factors, including concerns over economic slowdown and uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariffs, which have led to increased market volatility [2]. - Key recommendations include companies such as Luoyang Molybdenum, Zijin Mining, and Huayou Cobalt, among others, indicating strong potential for investment [2][3]. Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - The report notes a significant decrease in inventory levels for copper, with SMM social inventory dropping below 130,000 tons, indicating a tight supply situation [2][38]. - Aluminum production is recovering due to domestic restarts and new projects, with a notable inventory reduction of 71,000 tons driven by pre-holiday stocking [2][21]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing tightness in the cobalt market due to export bans from the Democratic Republic of Congo, which is expected to lead to price increases [3][54]. Precious Metals - Gold prices have recently declined due to reduced demand for safe-haven assets amid optimistic trade negotiations between the U.S. and China, while silver prices have shown resilience due to its industrial applications [3][66]. - The report anticipates a long-term upward trend in gold prices driven by de-dollarization and ongoing geopolitical tensions, despite short-term fluctuations [3][66]. Key Company Performance - The report provides earnings forecasts and valuations for key companies, with Zijin Mining projected to have an EPS of 1.21 yuan in 2024, and a PE ratio of 14 times [4]. - Other companies such as Huayou Cobalt and Luoyang Molybdenum are also highlighted for their strong earnings potential and favorable market conditions [4][5].