Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the retail and service sectors, highlighting the potential for growth driven by government policies aimed at boosting consumption [4][7]. Core Insights - The Politburo meeting emphasized the importance of stabilizing employment and promoting consumption, indicating a strategic focus on enhancing domestic demand and supporting the service sector [4][7]. - The report notes a significant increase in service retail sales, with a year-on-year growth of 5.0% in Q1 2025, surpassing the growth rate of goods retail sales [8]. - The introduction of optimized tax refund policies for outbound tourists is expected to enhance the attractiveness of inbound consumption, further stimulating the retail market [14][15]. - Various regions have launched consumption promotion activities, including the distribution of consumption vouchers, which have shown positive results in driving sales during the May Day holiday [16][17]. Summary by Sections Economic Policy and Consumption Promotion - The Politburo meeting proposed a series of policies to expand domestic demand and promote consumption, focusing on stabilizing employment and enhancing service consumption [4][7]. - The report highlights the expected positive impact of these policies on sectors such as tourism, hospitality, and retail, with a particular emphasis on the growth of service consumption [8][9]. Market Performance - During the period from April 28 to May 2, 2025, the social service index decreased by 2.63%, while the retail index fell by 1.72%, indicating a challenging market environment [19]. - The report provides a detailed overview of stock performance within the retail sector, noting significant gains for companies like Maoye Commercial and Xinhua Jin, while others like Tongcheng Holdings and Bubugao faced declines [22][29]. Company Updates - Notable companies in the retail sector, such as Yonghui Supermarket and Dazhong shares, are undergoing transformations to enhance profitability and adapt to changing consumer preferences [4][32]. - The report includes financial performance updates for key companies, indicating varied results across the sector, with some companies experiencing revenue growth while others faced declines [32][34]. Valuation Insights - The report presents valuation metrics for key companies in the retail and service sectors, indicating a weighted average PE ratio for e-commerce companies at 13 for 2025E, suggesting a favorable investment environment [40][41].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to see a gradual recovery in performance throughout 2025, with a focus on high dividend returns to shareholders [8] - The jewelry industry is currently facing significant sales pressure due to rising gold prices, which has impacted the company's performance [8] - The company has reported a significant increase in gross margin, attributed to rising gold prices and improved product mix [8] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 16,290 million, with a decline to 13,891 million in 2024, followed by a recovery to 15,225 million in 2025 [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to decrease from 1,316 million in 2023 to 1,010 million in 2024, with a slight recovery to 1,112 million in 2025 [1] - The latest diluted EPS is forecasted to be 0.92 in 2024, increasing to 1.01 in 2025 [1] Revenue and Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for 2024 is expected to be 20.80%, improving to 26.21% in Q1 2025 [8] - The net profit margin for 2024 is projected at 7.27%, with an increase to 9.43% in Q1 2025 [8] - The company aims for a cumulative cash distribution of at least 50% of its distributable profits over any three consecutive years [8] Channel Performance - Self-operated and e-commerce channels have shown relatively better performance, while the number of terminal stores has decreased [8] - In Q1 2025, self-operated offline revenue was 5.27 billion, e-commerce revenue was 5.34 billion, and franchise revenue was 5.84 billion, reflecting varying performance across product categories [8] Future Outlook - The company anticipates a sequential improvement in performance starting from Q2 2025, supported by a low base effect [8] - The forecast for net profit for 2025 has been adjusted to 11.1 billion, with a new projection for 2027 at 13.1 billion [8]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, with a significant drop in Q1 2025, attributed to high gold prices impacting consumer demand, although online sales showed growth [1][2][3] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 13.891 billion yuan, down 14.73%, and a net profit of 1.010 billion yuan, down 23.25% [1] - Q4 2024 revenue was 3.083 billion yuan, down 18.79%, with a net profit of 155 million yuan, down 29.69% [1] - Q1 2025 revenue was 2.673 billion yuan, down 47.28%, with a net profit of 252 million yuan, down 26.12% [1] Product Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from gold jewelry was 11.439 billion yuan, accounting for 82.35%, down 16.62% [2] - Revenue from embedded jewelry was 758 million yuan, accounting for 5.46%, down 17.36% [2] - Other jewelry revenue increased to 601 million yuan, accounting for 4.33%, up 66.70% [2] - Brand usage fee revenue was 706 million yuan, accounting for 5.08%, down 18.13% [2] - Other business revenue was 387 million yuan, accounting for 2.78%, down 10.05% [2] Sales Model Analysis - Self-operated (offline) revenue was 1.744 billion yuan, accounting for 12.55%, up 7.80%, with an average of 343 stores [2] - E-commerce (online) revenue was 2.795 billion yuan, accounting for 20.12%, up 11.42% [2] - Franchise revenue was 9.187 billion yuan, accounting for 66.13%, down 23.26%, with an average of 4,798 stores [3] Market Outlook - The company is expected to strengthen its main brand while building a diverse sub-brand matrix to capture market share [3] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 15.106 billion yuan, 16.698 billion yuan, and 18.421 billion yuan, with net profits of 1.108 billion yuan, 1.237 billion yuan, and 1.377 billion yuan respectively [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to see a gradual recovery in performance throughout 2025, following a challenging 2024 due to pressures in the gold jewelry industry [8] - The company has a strong dividend policy, committing to distribute at least 50% of its cumulative distributable profits in cash over any three consecutive years [8] - Despite a decline in revenue and net profit in 2024, the company anticipates a return to growth in 2025, with quarterly improvements expected starting from Q2 2025 [8] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 13.89 billion yuan, a decrease of 14.73% year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.01 billion yuan, down 23.25% [8] - For Q1 2025, revenue is expected to be 2.673 billion yuan, reflecting a 47.3% decline year-on-year, with a net profit of 252 million yuan, down 26.1% [8] - The gross margin improved significantly, with 2024 gross margin at 20.80% (up 2.6 percentage points) and Q1 2025 gross margin at 26.21% (up 10.6 percentage points) [8] - The company’s net profit margin for 2024 is 7.27%, slightly down from the previous year, while Q1 2025 shows an increase to 9.43% [8] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue is expected to grow to 15.23 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 9.60%, and net profit is projected to reach 1.11 billion yuan, up 10.07% [1][8] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 1.01 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 12.84 based on the latest diluted EPS [1][8] Market Data - The closing price of the stock is 13.03 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 14.28 billion yuan [5] - The company has a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 2.16 and a net asset value per share of 6.03 yuan [5][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the near term [2][6]. Core Insights - The company is focusing on strengthening its main brand, Zhou Dasheng, while building a diverse sub-brand matrix to capture market share. Despite the pressure on the gold consumption market, the revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 15.106 billion, 16.698 billion, and 18.421 billion respectively, with corresponding net profits of 1.108 billion, 1.237 billion, and 1.377 billion, leading to a projected PE ratio of 13x, 12x, and 10x [2][15]. Financial Summary - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 138.91 billion, a decrease of 14.73%, and a net profit of 10.10 billion, down 23.25%. The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 30.83 billion, down 18.79%, and a net profit of 1.55 billion, down 29.69% [4][11]. - The revenue breakdown for 2024 shows that the main product, gold jewelry, generated 114.39 billion, accounting for 82.35% of total revenue, while other segments like embedded jewelry and brand usage fees also contributed [5][12]. - The company’s gross margin improved to 20.80% in 2024, up 2.66 percentage points, attributed to a higher proportion of self-operated business and a decrease in low-margin gold products [14]. Business Strategy - The company is enhancing its multi-brand strategy, with a total of 5,008 stores by the end of 2024, including 4,655 franchise stores and 353 self-operated stores. The focus is on integrating channel resources and optimizing store layouts to strengthen the main brand while promoting sub-brands [15][12]. - The sub-brands include "Zhou Dasheng X National Treasure," which targets high-end channels, "Zhou Dasheng Classic," focusing on cultural heritage, and "Zhuanzhuge," which will launch in the second half of 2024, emphasizing low investment and high returns [15].

Industry Overview - The gold market in China is experiencing increased volatility, with domestic brand gold jewelry prices around 1000 RMB per gram as of May 1 [1][4] - Consumer interest in gold purchases is influenced by cultural practices, particularly the tradition of buying gold jewelry as part of wedding preparations [1] Consumer Behavior - Many consumers are currently purchasing gold jewelry primarily due to wedding needs, with a noticeable decline in gift purchases compared to the Spring Festival [1] - A significant number of consumers are adopting a wait-and-see approach regarding gold purchases due to price fluctuations [8] Consumption Data - According to the China Gold Association, the national gold consumption in Q1 2025 was 290.492 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.96%. Specifically, gold jewelry consumption fell by 26.85% to 134.531 tons, while gold bars and coins saw a 29.81% increase [8] - Revenue reports from major companies indicate a decline in sales, with China Gold's Q1 revenue at 11.003 billion RMB, down 39.71%, and Lao Feng Xiang's at 17.521 billion RMB, down 31.64% [8] Company Performance - Some companies reported positive performance despite the overall decline; Cai Bai Co. achieved a Q1 revenue of 8.222 billion RMB, up 30.18%, and a net profit of 320 million RMB, up 17.32% [8] - Chao Hong Ji reported a Q1 revenue of 2.252 billion RMB, an increase of 25.36% [8] Market Trends - The younger consumer demographic (post-80s, 90s, and 00s) is increasingly driving demand for gold jewelry, with a focus on innovative designs and high craftsmanship [9] - The World Gold Council indicates a shift in consumer decision-making towards self-value realization, with consumers willing to pay a premium for products that align with personal aesthetics [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][4][13] Core Views - The company's operating performance is under pressure due to rising gold prices, with a significant decline in revenue and net profit for 2024 and Q1 2025. Revenue for 2024 was 13.89 billion yuan, down 14.7% year-on-year, and net profit was 1.01 billion yuan, down 23.2% year-on-year. For Q1 2025, revenue was 2.67 billion yuan, down 47.3%, and net profit was 252 million yuan, down 26.1% [4][5] - The company is expected to see a recovery in profitability from 2025 to 2027, with projected net profits of 1.15 billion yuan, 1.36 billion yuan, and 1.59 billion yuan respectively. The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 12.4, 10.5, and 9.0 for 2025-2027 [4][5] - The company is focusing on optimizing its brand matrix and channel structure to enhance growth potential, despite current challenges [4][6] Financial Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 138.91 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 14.7%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 10.10 billion yuan, down 23.2% [4][7] - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 26.73 billion yuan, a decrease of 47.3%, and a net profit of 2.52 billion yuan, down 26.1% [4][5] - The company’s gross margin for Q1 2025 was 26.2%, an increase of 10.6 percentage points, attributed to a decrease in the proportion of low-margin gold products [5][6] Channel and Brand Strategy - The company plans to optimize its channel structure and brand matrix in 2025, with a focus on enhancing its direct sales channels, which have shown resilience. In 2024, the company opened 663 new stores, ending the year with a total of 5008 stores [6][7] - The brand strategy includes the rebranding of multiple brands and strengthening partnerships, such as "Zhou Dasheng X National Treasure" and "Zhou Dasheng Classic" [6][7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's operating performance is under pressure due to rising gold prices, with revenue for 2024 expected to be 13.89 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.7%, and a net profit of 1.01 billion yuan, down 23.2% [4] - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 2.67 billion yuan, a significant decline of 47.3%, and a net profit of 252 million yuan, down 26.1% [4] - The company is expected to reshape its multi-brand positioning, which is anticipated to drive future growth momentum, with a reasonable current valuation [4] Financial Summary - The total market capitalization of the company is 142.80 billion yuan, with a circulating market capitalization of 141.97 billion yuan [1] - The company's total revenue for 2023 was 16.29 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 46.5% [7] - The projected revenue for 2025 is 15.30 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.1% [7] - The projected net profit for 2025 is 1.15 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 14.0% [7] - The company's EPS for 2025 is expected to be 1.05 yuan, with a P/E ratio of 12.4 times [4][7] Channel and Brand Strategy - The company plans to optimize its channel structure and brand matrix in 2025, with a focus on enhancing its direct sales channels [6] - In 2024, the company opened 663 new offline stores, bringing the total to 5,008, although the franchise channel faced challenges [6] - The company is actively working on its multi-brand positioning, including collaborations with "National Treasure" and strengthening its brand matrix [6]

Group 1 - Domestic gold jewelry prices continue to decline, with some falling below 1,000 yuan per gram [1] - Multiple gold jewelry brands reported a decrease in the price of 24K gold jewelry, with prices dropping by 13 yuan per gram to 1,009 yuan per gram [1] - Specific brands such as Laomiao and Caibai saw price reductions of 21 yuan per gram to 995 yuan per gram and 10 yuan per gram to 998 yuan per gram, respectively [1][3] Group 2 - The current prices for various brands of 24K gold jewelry are as follows: Zhou Dasheng at 1,009 yuan per gram, Caibai at 998 yuan per gram, and Chao Hongji at 1,022 yuan per gram [3] - TSL and Jin Zun brands are also priced at 1,009 yuan per gram, while Zhou Liufu is at 1,022 yuan per gram [3]

Group 1: Zhou Dasheng - Zhou Dasheng's operations in 2024 and Q1 of this year are impacted by gold price fluctuations, prompting the company to adopt various measures [1] - The company is enhancing research and development of gold and non-gold products, diversifying product offerings, adjusting brand matrix, and advancing retail models and digital transformation [1] - Gross margin improvement is attributed to the increase in self-operated business proportion and product mix optimization, with gold inventory accounting for 70% of total inventory, of which 20% is gold leasing [1] - The "National Treasure" brand will be upgraded to "National Treasure Cultural Collection Gold Products Leader," focusing on comprehensive enhancements in brand, product, and operations [1] - Zhou Dasheng's classic positioning is in the intangible cultural heritage sector, with the "Zhuge Pavilion" adopting a light asset, high gross margin, and high turnover model [1] - 30% of franchise stores are located in first and second-tier cities, while 70% are in third-tier and below cities, with the initial investment in inventory accounting for 90% of store opening costs [1] Group 2: Jin Zai Food - Jin Zai Food reported Q1 2025 revenue of 595 million, a year-on-year increase of 10.27%, with a net profit of 67.55 million [2] - The company is successfully expanding offline channels, with rapid growth in snack specialty channels and stable growth in circulation channels, while online channels have seen a slight decline [2] - The quail egg business is expected to achieve double-digit growth in 2024, with the company implementing differentiated, branded, and long-term development strategies, launching the "Seven Doctors" brand and innovative products [2] - Overseas sales revenue reached approximately 34 million, a 90% year-on-year increase, focusing on breakthroughs in the Southeast Asian market with products tailored to local tastes [2] - Growth in the bean products segment is driven by quality upgrades of traditional dried tofu and the introduction of new products like "Zhou Fresh Fresh" short-shelf-life dried tofu and fresh mixed shaking dried tofu [2] - The deep-sea eel fish segment continues to grow rapidly, achieving double-digit growth in Q1, with a focus on core category research and innovation, as well as expanding new channels and blank points [2] - The company aims to enhance quail egg gross margins through supply chain optimization, innovative product launches, increased brand investment, and improved capacity utilization [2]