Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [6] Core Views - The report emphasizes investment opportunities in the soft drink and low-alcohol segments due to new products, low base effects, and the upcoming peak season [4][5][15] - The white liquor sector is recommended with a focus on Moutai and Fenjiu, while the yellow wine sector is under observation for data validation [3][18] - The report identifies four key themes in the consumer goods sector: cost control, new consumption trends, potential performance elasticity in Q2, and thematic expectations [18][22] Summary by Sections Market Performance Review - From May 26 to May 30, the food and beverage sector declined by 1.06%, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.03% [24] - Notable performances included soft drinks (+9.27%), other alcoholic beverages (+7.13%), and beer (+3.22%) [24] White and Yellow Liquor - The white liquor sector saw a decline of 2.76%, attributed to recent regulations and seasonal factors [3] - Shanxi Fenjiu aims for national expansion and product growth, indicating a strategic opportunity during the industry's adjustment phase [3][18] Beer and Beverage - The beer sector increased by 3.22%, supported by seasonal demand and promotional activities [14] - The report highlights the potential of the soft drink and low-alcohol segments, with significant growth in companies like Li Ziyuan and Dongpeng Beverage [15][22] Consumer Goods - The consumer goods sector is recommended based on four main themes: cost control, new consumption, potential performance elasticity, and thematic expectations [18][22] - The report suggests focusing on companies that can leverage these themes, such as Ximai Food and H&H [22] Investment Recommendations - Top picks include soft drinks and low-alcohol products like Li Ziyuan, Chengde Lulou, and Dongpeng Beverage [5][22] - For the white liquor sector, leading companies like Shanxi Fenjiu and Guizhou Moutai are recommended [5][22] - The report also suggests monitoring companies in the consumer goods sector that align with the identified themes [22]

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Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating a positive outlook for key players in the sector [5]. Core Insights - The white liquor industry is experiencing gradual pressure, with a focus on rational targets for 2025. The report emphasizes three main investment lines: leading brands with competitive advantages, high-certainty regional brands, and flexible stocks benefiting from recovery and increased risk appetite [1][2]. - The beer sector shows a slight decline in production, with a 0.6% year-on-year decrease in the first four months of 2025. However, there is potential for recovery in the upcoming peak season, suggesting a favorable investment window [3]. - The report highlights the broad recovery potential in the catering supply space, with leading companies expected to benefit from improved performance and market expansion strategies [4][7]. Summary by Sections White Liquor - The industry consensus is shifting towards stable, high-quality growth with a focus on market share rather than aggressive growth targets. Key strategies include product innovation, market penetration, and international expansion [2]. - Major companies like Guizhou Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu are focusing on maintaining market stability and enhancing their brand presence among younger consumers [2]. Beer and Beverage - The beer production for January to April 2025 was 11.44 million kiloliters, reflecting a slight decline. However, April showed a 4.8% increase in production, indicating potential for recovery [3]. - The beverage sector is characterized by intense competition, but new product launches and recovery in consumer demand are expected to sustain high growth [3]. Catering Supply - The report notes significant opportunities for leading companies in the catering supply sector, particularly with the introduction of new products and expansion into new categories [4][7]. - Companies like Three Squirrels are diversifying their product lines and enhancing their distribution channels to capture more market share [7].

Core Viewpoint - The dairy industry is undergoing a capacity adjustment and destocking process, with a clear direction influenced by policy support, leading to potential stabilization of milk prices in the second half of the year [1] Group 1: Milk Price Cycle - The milk price cycle is influenced by multiple factors including capacity, demand, and imports, creating a cyclical relationship where milk prices affect farming profits, which in turn influence capacity [1] - Since 2008, the milk price has experienced three downward cycles and two upward cycles, with significant events like the melamine incident in 2008 impacting prices [1] Group 2: Industry Losses and Capacity Adjustment - The fresh milk price decline in 2024 has led to severe losses for farms, with a continuous destocking trend observed [2] - In 2024, the total raw milk production is projected to be 40.79 million tons, a decrease of 2.8% year-on-year, with a 4.5% decline in the number of Holstein cows [2] Group 3: 2025 Outlook - The current milk price adjustment cycle has lasted over three years, with over 80% of the industry facing losses, indicating a more severe situation than previous cycles [3] - Despite ongoing losses, policies such as fertility subsidies and student milk promotions are expected to marginally boost dairy product demand, leading to a potential stabilization of raw milk prices in the second half of 2025 [3] Group 4: Milk Price and Dairy Company Stock Performance - Historical data shows a high correlation between milk price fluctuations and stock price movements of upstream dairy companies, with stock prices often reacting ahead of milk prices [4] - During periods of rising milk prices, upstream companies are expected to benefit directly, while downstream dairy companies may experience stock price changes driven by their product structure upgrades and market expectations [4]

Investment Rating - The report rates the food and beverage industry as "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - The dairy price is expected to stabilize in the second half of 2025 after a prolonged adjustment cycle lasting over three years, with over 80% of the industry facing losses [6][60] - The report highlights the cyclical nature of raw milk prices influenced by production capacity, demand, and imports, with significant historical fluctuations noted [6][19] - The report emphasizes the correlation between raw milk prices and the stock prices of upstream dairy companies, suggesting that stock prices may react ahead of milk prices during cyclical changes [6][35] Summary by Sections 1. Raw Milk Price Cycle - The raw milk price is influenced by multiple factors including production capacity, demand, and imports, creating a cyclical pattern [6][19] - The dairy industry is characterized by a long breeding cycle for dairy cows, leading to delayed responses in production capacity adjustments [18][19] - Historical data shows three downward cycles and two upward cycles in raw milk prices since 2008, with significant events impacting demand and prices [19][26] 2. 2025 Outlook - The industry is currently facing severe losses, with a continued trend of dairy cow capacity reduction expected [60][62] - Policy support is anticipated to improve dairy product demand, contributing to a gradual stabilization of milk prices in the latter half of 2025 [60][64] - The report forecasts that as the supply-demand balance improves, raw milk prices may stabilize, benefiting upstream dairy companies [60][62] 3. Correlation Between Milk Prices and Dairy Company Stocks - The report notes a high correlation between raw milk prices and the stock prices of upstream dairy companies, indicating that stock prices may respond more quickly to changes in market conditions [6][35] - The performance of downstream dairy companies is also influenced by their product structure and market expectations, which can affect their stock prices during different price cycles [6][35] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading dairy companies such as Modern Dairy and Yurun Dairy, as well as major dairy enterprises like Yili and New Dairy, which are expected to benefit from the stabilization of milk prices [6][60]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement details the progress of the exchange of convertible bonds issued by New Hope Investment Group, which has led to changes in shareholding percentages of the company, New Hope Dairy Co., Ltd. [1][2][3] Group 1: Convertible Bond Issuance - New Hope Investment Group issued a non-public offering of convertible bonds, with a total issuance size of 500 million RMB, and the bonds are set to be exchanged for A-shares of the company [1]. - The exchange period for the bonds is from May 14, 2024, to November 9, 2026 [1]. Group 2: Shareholding Changes - As of April 9, 2025, bondholders have exchanged 8,405,834 shares, reducing New Hope Investment Group's total shareholding from 80.68% to 79.70% [2]. - From April 10 to April 17, 2025, an additional 6,553,462 shares were exchanged, further decreasing the shareholding to 79.70% [2]. - From April 18 to May 20, 2025, bondholders exchanged 8,576,576 shares, resulting in a new total shareholding of 77.95% for New Hope Investment Group [3]. Group 3: Compliance and Governance - The changes in shareholding do not trigger a mandatory tender offer and comply with relevant regulations, including the Securities Law and the Management Measures for the Acquisition of Listed Companies [7]. - The rights associated with the exchanged shares remain intact, and there are no restrictions on voting rights or transferability [7]. - The company’s control structure and governance will not be affected by these changes [7].

证券代码：002946 证券简称：新乳业 公告编号：2025-027 债券代码：128142 债券简称：新乳转债 新希望乳业股份有限公司（以下简称"本公司"或"公司"）股东新希望投 资集团有限公司（以下简称"新投集团"）发行的"新希望投资集团有限公司 2023 年面向专业投资者非公开发行可交换公司债券（第一期）"预备用于交换 的股票为本公司 A 股股票。 2023 年 11 月 14 日，新投集团完成"新希望投资集团有限公司 2023 年面 向专业投资者非公开发行可交换公司债券（第一期）"的发行，债券简称为"23 新乳 EB"，债券代码为"117213.SZ"，发行规模人民 5.00 亿元，债券期限为 3 年，票面利率为 0.60%，到期赎回价格为 106 元/张。根据有关规定，结合《新 希望投资集团有限公司 2023 年面向专业投资者非公开发行可交换公司债券（第 一期）募集说明书》约定，"23 新乳 EB"换股期自发行结束之日起满 6 个月后 的第 1 个交易日起至债券到期日前 1 个交易日止，即 2024 年 5 月 14 日至 2026 年 11 月 9 日。 2025 年 4 月 10 日，本公司收到 ...

2、股东大会召集人：新希望乳业股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"或"本 公司"）董事会 公司第三届董事会第十五次会议审议通过了《关于提请召开公司 2024 年年 度股东大会的议案》，同意召开本次股东大会。 3、会议召开的合法、合规性：本次股东大会会议召开符合有关法律、行政 法规、部门规章、规范性文件、深圳证券交易所业务规则和《公司章程》的规定。 证券代码：002946 证券简称：新乳业 公告编号：2025-026 债券代码：128142 债券简称：新乳转债 新希望乳业股份有限公司 关于召开2024年年度股东大会的通知 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完 整，没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 一、召开会议的基本情况 1、股东大会届次：2024 年年度股东大会 4、会议召开的时间 （1）现场会议召开时间：2025 年 6 月 10 日（星期二）13:00。 （2）网络投票时间： 通过深圳证券交易所交易系统进行网络投票的具体时间为 2025 年 6 月 10 日 9:15-9:25、9:30-11:30 和 13:00-15:00； 通过深圳证券交易所互联网投票系统投票的具体时间为：2025 年 ...

Group 1 - The company, New Hope Dairy Co., Ltd., has convened its third board meeting to approve the proposal for the 2024 annual general meeting of shareholders [3][5] - The annual general meeting is scheduled for June 10, 2025, with specific times allocated for on-site and online voting [3][4] - Shareholders must choose between on-site voting and online voting, with provisions for proxy voting [4][5] Group 2 - The meeting will review several proposals, including the financial statements for 2024 and the remuneration plans for directors and senior management for 2025 [5][9] - Shareholders must register for the meeting, providing necessary identification and documentation [6][8] - The company has outlined the procedures for online voting through the Shenzhen Stock Exchange systems [8][9]

券 新希望乳业股份有限公司 证券代码：002946 证券简称：新乳业 公告编号：2025-026 债 关于召开2024年年度股东大会的通知 3、会议召开的合法、合规性：本次股东大会会议召开符合有关法律、行政 法规、部门规章、规范性文件、深圳证券交易所业务规则和《公司章程》的规定。 4、会议召开的时间 （1）现场会议召开时间：2025 年 6 月 10 日（星期二）13:00。 （2）网络投票时间： 通过深圳证券交易所交易系统进行网络投票的具体时间为 2025 年 6 月 10 日 9:15-9:25、9:30-11:30 和 13:00-15:00； ： 1 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完 整，没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 2 8 一、召开会议的基本情况 1 1、股东大会届次：2024 年年度股东大会 4 2、股东大会召集人：新希望乳业股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"或"本 公司"）董事会 2 债券简称：新乳转债 公司第三届董事会第十五次会议审议通过了《关于提请召开公司 2024 年年 度股东大会的议案》，同意召开本次股东大会。 通过深圳证券交易所互联网投票系统投票的具体时间为： ...