Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The short - term upward trend of cotton prices has paused due to the clear increase in cotton production in 2025. However, the expectation of a potential reduction in cotton planting areas in 2026 at home and abroad is rising, and the solidified cost of seed cotton acquisition provides strong support. The demand side is favorable, with sufficient orders from Xinjiang yarn mills, high - end yarns in short supply, higher textile operating rates than last year, and enterprises restocking as needed. The easing of Sino - US tariffs benefits textile exports, and the significant increase in cotton yarn imports in November also provides strong support for export demand [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Zhengzhou cotton contract was 14,435 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan; the closing price of the main cotton yarn contract was 20,490 yuan/ton, a decrease of 95 yuan. - The net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was - 177,376 lots, an increase of 13,493 lots; the net position of the top 20 in cotton yarn futures was - 2268 lots, an increase of 219 lots. - The position volume of the main cotton contract was 868,630 lots, a decrease of 35,230 lots; the position volume of the main cotton yarn contract was 21,389 lots, a decrease of 1,813 lots. - The number of cotton warehouse receipts was 5,085, an increase of 232; the number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 19, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) was 15,541 yuan/ton, an increase of 224 yuan; the China Yarn Price Index for pure - cotton carded 32 - count yarn was 21,140 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) was 12,932 yuan/ton, an increase of 34 yuan; the China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:sliding - scale duty) was 13,928 yuan/ton, an increase of 12 yuan. - The arrival price of the imported cotton yarn price index for pure - cotton carded 32 - count yarn was 21,036 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan; the arrival price of the imported cotton yarn price index for pure - cotton combed 32 - count yarn was 22,285 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area was 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output was 6160 thousand tons, an increase of 540 thousand tons [2]. Industry Situation - The cotton - yarn price difference was 5,599 yuan/ton, a decrease of 224 yuan. - The industrial inventory of cotton nationwide was 850 thousand tons, an increase of 65 thousand tons; the monthly import volume of cotton was 120 thousand tons, an increase of 30 thousand tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn was 150,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons. - The profit from imported cotton was 1,613 yuan/ton, an increase of 212 yuan; the commercial inventory of cotton nationwide was 468360 thousand tons, an increase of 175300 thousand tons. - The inventory days of yarn were 26.33 days, an increase of 0.21 days; the inventory days of grey fabric were 32.34 days, an increase of 0.37 days [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of cloth was 2.81 billion meters, an increase of 0.19 billion meters; the monthly output of yarn was 2.039 million tons, an increase of 0.038 million tons. - The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories was 11,593,686 thousand US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products was 12,275,733,101,731.408 thousand US dollars [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option for cotton was 12.57%, an increase of 3.13%; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option for cotton was 12.54%, an increase of 3.07%. - The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton was 7.95%, an increase of 2.73%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton was 7.28%, an increase of 1.07% [2]. Industry News - In 2025, the national cotton sowing area was 2,979.2 thousand hectares, an increase of 140.9 thousand hectares or 5.0% compared to 2024. The sowing area in Xinjiang was 3,887.5 million mu, an increase of 215.6 million mu or 5.9%. - The national cotton unit - area yield was 2,229.0 kg/ha, an increase of 57.4 kg/ha or 2.6% compared to 2024. - The national cotton total output was 6.641 million tons, an increase of 477 thousand tons or 7.7% compared to 2024. - According to the USDA report, for the week ending December 11, 2025/26, the net export sales of US upland cotton increased by 304,700 bales, a 99% increase from the previous week and a 95% increase from the average of the previous four weeks. The export shipment volume was 134,400 bales, a 32% increase from the previous week and a 17% increase from the average of the previous four weeks [2].

铝类产业日报 2025/12/29 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 最新 环比 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 主力-连二合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) | 22,570.00 -110.00 289,226.00 | +165.00↑ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) +25.00↑ 主力-连二合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) -10415.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:氧化铝(日,手) | 2,751.00 -122.00 396,675.00 | -42.00↓ +2.00↑ +68059.00↑ | | | LME铝注销仓单(日,吨) | 73,225.00 | 0.00 库存:氧化铝:合计(周,万吨) | 196,972.00 | -594.00↓ | | 期货市场 | LME电解铝三个月报价（日，美元/吨） | 2,956.50 | +15.50↑ LME铝库存（日，吨） | 521,050.00 | +1450.00↑ | | | 沪铝前20名净 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - The mid - term logic of the overall rise of precious metals remains unchanged. However, due to the recent continuous and rapid price increase and significant market fluctuations, silver prices may deviate significantly from fundamental factors. There is a need to be vigilant against the risk of technical corrections. This week, opportunities for the repair of the gold - silver ratio can be focused on. The London gold is expected to face resistance at $4500 per ounce and support at $4300 per ounce. The London silver is expected to have resistance at $80 per ounce and support at $70 per ounce [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract is 1007.180 yuan per gram, a decrease of 9.1 yuan. The closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract is 18201 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 107 yuan. The main contract positions of Shanghai gold are 166022 hands, a decrease of 14690 hands. The main contract positions of Shanghai silver are 5670 hands, a decrease of 3274 hands. The main contract trading volume of Shanghai gold is 345222 hands, an increase of 120634 hands. The main contract trading volume of Shanghai silver is 1442771 hands, an increase of 457513 hands. The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai gold is 97704 kilograms, an increase of 12 kilograms. The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai silver is 796739 kilograms, a decrease of 22692 kilograms [1] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange is 1004.00 yuan, a decrease of 3.00 yuan. The spot price of Huatong No.1 silver is 19100.00 yuan, an increase of 623.00 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract is 899.00 yuan per gram, a decrease of 3.18 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai silver main contract is 730.00 yuan per gram, an increase of 6.12 yuan [1] 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - The holding of SPDR gold ETF is 1071.13 tons, an increase of 2.86 tons. The holding of SLV silver ETF is 16390.56 tons, a decrease of 56.41 tons. The non - commercial net position of gold in CFTC is 233978.00 contracts, an increase of 10092.00 contracts. The non - commercial net position of silver in CFTC is 36352.00 contracts, a decrease of 8357.00 contracts. The total supply of gold in the quarter is 1313.07 tons, an increase of 86.24 tons. The total supply of silver in the year is 32056.00 tons, an increase of 482.00 tons. The total demand for gold in the quarter is 1257.90 tons, an increase of 174.15 tons. The total demand for silver in the year is 35716.00 tons, a decrease of 491.00 tons [1] 3.4 Macro Data - The US dollar index is 98.03, an increase of 0.12. The real yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond is 1.91, unchanged. The VIX volatility index is 13.60, an increase of 0.13. The CBOE gold volatility index is 25.78, an increase of 1.97. The ratio of the S&P 500 to the gold price is 0.00, unchanged. The gold - silver ratio is 0.00, unchanged [1] 3.5 Industry News - US President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky held a meeting on the proposed Russia - Ukraine "peace plan". Trump said that both Zelensky and Russian President Putin hope to reach a peace agreement, and Putin is "serious" about promoting peace. A "very strong" security agreement will be reached between the US and Ukraine, and there is no deadline for relevant negotiations. According to the CME "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January next year is 18.8%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 81.2%. By March next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point interest rate cut is 46.9%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 44.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point interest rate cut is 8.5% [1] 3.6 Market Performance and Reasons - The intraday fluctuations in the precious metals market significantly increased today. In the early trading session, the Shanghai silver main contract once hit the daily limit, but then due to the pressure of long - position profit - taking, the prices of gold and silver quickly fell in the afternoon, and the intraday gains were completely erased. Previously, due to the continuous tightness of physical inventories, the short - squeeze sentiment in the silver market continued, the long - position atmosphere was strong, and some short - positions were forced to exit, further pushing up the silver price. However, the accumulated profit - taking positions also increased the risk of correction, and today's intraday adjustment can be regarded as the concentrated release of this risk [1] 3.7 Macro - Level Situation - The GDP growth rate in the third quarter of the US reached a two - year high, and the core PCE price index met expectations, indicating that inflation pressure has eased. Weak employment data, stable inflation, and the market's expectation that the Fed will maintain loose liquidity and may even expand its balance sheet jointly strengthen the macro - logic of a looser monetary policy. In this environment, the US dollar index is expected to remain under pressure in the short term [1] 3.8 Key Focus Points - On December 30, 2025, at 22:00, pay attention to the year - on - year change of the US FHFA housing price index. On January 1, 2026, at 21:45, pay attention to the US Markit manufacturing PMI [1]

爬升，三元电池贡献小幅需求增量。国内镍库存小幅下降，市场逢回调采买增加，现货升水高位；海外LM 研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格证F03118799 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0022803 E库存延续增长。技术面，成交放量持仓高位，多空分歧增大。观点参考：预计短线沪镍宽幅调整，关注M A5支撑，上方13关口阻力。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | | | 沪镍产业日报 2025-12-29 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪镍(日,元/吨) | 125710 | -10 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The spot price remains low, and the breeding end is still in a loss state, with poor replenishment enthusiasm, which is favorable for the forward price. However, the New Year's Day stocking has started, and the demand has rebounded slightly due to the low temperature in the north. The slaughter and food processing have slightly replenished their inventories, boosting the spot price to rise from the low level. The current in - production inventory of laying hens is still at a high level, and the elimination of old hens has slowed down slightly. The high production capacity still restricts the performance of the near - month market price. Overall, the market is in a game between weak reality and strong expectations. The near - month contract may be in a wide - range shock state in the short term, and the far - month contract is expected to perform better than the near - month contract under the expectation of declining production capacity. One can try to go long on the far - month contract with a light position [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the active egg futures contract is 2941 yuan/500 kilograms, a decrease of 16 yuan; the net long position of the top 20 futures holdings is - 40491 hands, an increase of 4500 hands; the egg futures monthly spread (5 - 9) is - 498 yuan/500 kilograms, an increase of 7 yuan; the futures holding volume of the active contract is 141967 hands, a decrease of 11686 hands; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 0 hands, unchanged [2] Spot Market - The spot price of eggs is 3.1 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.13 yuan; the basis (spot - futures) is 157 yuan/500 kilograms, an increase of 142 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The national laying hen inventory index is 112.03 (with 2015 = 100), a decrease of 2.21; the national eliminated laying hen index is 101.18 (with 2015 = 100), a decrease of 13.26; the average price of laying hen chicks in the main production areas is 2.8 yuan/feather, unchanged; the national new chick index is 93.62 (with 2015 = 100), an increase of 26.53; the average price of laying hen compound feed is 2.8 yuan/kg, unchanged; the breeding profit of laying hens is - 0.47 yuan/head, a decrease of 0.11 yuan; the average price of eliminated chickens in the main production areas is 7.74 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.16 yuan; the age of eliminated chickens is 500 days, a decrease of 10 days [2] Industry Situation - The average wholesale price of pork is 17.67 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.24 yuan; the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 5.68 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.12 yuan; the average wholesale price of white - striped chickens is 17.54 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.54 yuan; the weekly inventory in the circulation link is 1.21 days, an increase of 0.09 days; the weekly inventory in the production link is 1.09 days, an increase of 0.09 days; the monthly export volume of fresh eggs is 13394.53 tons, an increase of 178.74 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly consumption of eggs in the sales area is 7147 tons, an increase of 124 tons [2] Industry News - The average price of eggs in Shandong, the main production area, is 5.98 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.18 yuan compared with yesterday; the average price of eggs in Hebei is 5.60 yuan/kg, unchanged from yesterday; the average price of eggs in Guangdong is 6.73 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.20 yuan compared with yesterday; the average price of eggs in Beijing is 6.00 yuan/kg, unchanged from yesterday. The continuous losses at the breeding end have led to a decline in replenishment enthusiasm and an increase in the elimination of old hens. The laying hen inventory has slightly declined, and the market atmosphere has improved slightly [2]

不锈钢产业日报 2025-12-29 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | 12910 | -45 02-03月合约价差:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | -75 | 0 -7950 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:不锈钢(日,手) | -15276 | -121 主力合约持仓量:不锈钢(日,手) | 84501 | | | | 仓单数量:不锈钢(日,吨) | 47462 | -426 | | | | 现货市场 | 304/2B卷:切边:无锡(日,元/吨) | 13550 | 0 市场价:废不锈钢304:无锡(日,元/吨) | 9100 | 0 | | | 基差:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | 290 | 60 | | | | 上游情况 | 电解镍产量(月,吨) | 29430 | 1120 镍铁产量合计(月,万金属吨) | 2.21 | -0.08 | | | 进口数量:精炼镍及合金(月,吨) | 12840.49 | 2900.8 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Core View of the Report - It is expected that Shanghai tin will undergo short - term high - level adjustment and break below the MA10 support [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai tin is 334,590 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3,960 yuan; the closing price of the February - March contract of Shanghai tin is down 720 yuan with a 590 - yuan decrease in the ring - comparison [3] - The price of LME 3 - month tin is 42,490 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 345 US dollars; the position of the main contract of Shanghai tin is 50,161 lots, a decrease of 2,115 lots [3] - The net position of the top 20 futures of Shanghai tin is 62 lots, an increase of 2,415 lots; the total inventory of LME tin is 4,895 tons, an increase of 220 tons [3] - The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange for tin is 8,477 tons (weekly), and the warehouse receipt of Shanghai Futures Exchange for tin is 7,905 tons (daily), a decrease of 64 tons [3] - The cancelled warehouse receipt of LME tin is 190 tons, an increase of 75 tons [3] 现货市场 - The spot price of SMM 1 tin is 343,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 8,750 yuan; the spot price of 1 tin in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market is 344,180 yuan/ton, an increase of 10,000 yuan [3] - The basis of the main contract of Shanghai tin is - 3,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 670 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is 130 US dollars/ton, an increase of 65 US dollars [3] 上游情况 - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 1.16 million tons (monthly), an increase of 0.29 million tons [3] - The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 331,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 8,750 yuan; the processing fee of 40% tin concentrate by Antaike is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - The average price of 60% tin concentrate is 335,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 8,750 yuan; the processing fee of 60% tin concentrate by Antaike is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 产业情况 - The monthly output of refined tin is 1.4 million tons, a decrease of 0.16 million tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin is 983.25 tons, a decrease of 518.38 tons [3] 下游情况 - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 219,870 yuan/ton, an increase of 5,520 yuan [3] - The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 139.01 million tons (monthly), an increase of 14.47 million tons; the monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 22.26 million tons, an increase of 2.5 million tons [3] 行业消息 - The Ministry of Finance will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026, expand fiscal expenditure, and support the replacement of consumer goods with old ones [3] - In November, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in China decreased by 13.1% year - on - year, with a slight increase in the first 11 months, and the profit growth rate of high - tech manufacturing accelerated. The decline in industrial production and profit margins is the main reason for the narrowing of the profit growth rate [3] 观点总结 - On the macro - level, the Ministry of Finance will continue the proactive fiscal policy in 2026 [3] - On the fundamental level, the domestic supply of imported tin ore is still tight, and the processing fee of tin ore remains low. Although Myanmar's resumption of production and the end of the rainy season provide some supply increments, the overall import volume of tin ore is still low. The raw materials of tin ore are in short supply, and the production of refined tin is expected to be restricted. Indonesia's export volume increased in November, but the domestic import of tin is in a loss state, and the import volume is expected to remain low. The market's willingness to purchase tin has improved, the inventory accumulation has slowed down, and the LME inventory has increased significantly [3] - On the technical level, the trading volume has increased, showing an upper - shadow negative line, with increased divergence between bulls and bears, and facing key resistance at the upper edge of the upward channel [3]

Core Viewpoint - Palladium futures experienced a sharp decline, hitting the limit down at 494.10 yuan, a drop of 10.00% [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Guosen Futures predicts that platinum and palladium may continue to operate in a volatile but strong manner in the future, supported by ongoing geopolitical tensions and market sentiment [2] - Ruida Futures warns of potential technical pullback pressure on platinum and palladium prices in the short term, noting a divergence in their price movements [2] - The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, along with other regional risk events, provides a continuous risk premium and uncertainty support for the entire precious metals sector, including platinum group metals [2] Group 2: Price Dynamics - Platinum prices are expected to find short-term support around 650 yuan per gram and resistance near 750 yuan per gram, while palladium support is noted at 500 yuan per gram and resistance at 600 yuan per gram [2] - Recent strong performance in platinum prices is driven by tight physical inventory and cross-regional arbitrage trading, while palladium has shown weakness due to concentrated demand in automotive catalysts and the rise of electric vehicles [2] - The disparity in domestic and international prices has stimulated arbitrage motives, pushing up spot prices and amplifying futures price volatility [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The long-term outlook for platinum remains positive due to expectations of structural supply-demand deficits and expanding demand in the hydrogen economy, while palladium's market is shifting from a supply shortage to an oversupply situation [2] - Despite the weakening demand expectations for palladium, the prevailing sentiment driven by interest rate cuts may provide some support for its prices, making it a cost-effective choice at current low levels [2] - The recent parabolic rise in platinum and palladium prices may increase the risk of a high-level pullback, necessitating caution against technical correction pressures in the short term [2]

Group 1 - The core point of the announcement is that "Ruida Convertible Bonds" will be forcibly redeemed if not converted by the market close on January 16, 2026, and will subsequently be delisted from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [2] - Holders of "Ruida Convertible Bonds" are advised to lift any pledges or freezes on their bonds before the trading suspension date to avoid being forced to redeem due to inability to convert [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - This week, rapeseed oil futures rebounded from a low level, and the closing price of the 05 contract was 9,046 yuan/ton, up 302 yuan/ton from the previous week. Rapeseed meal futures fluctuated and closed higher, with the 05 contract closing at 2,391 yuan/ton, up 68 yuan/ton from the previous week [8][10]. - The supply - demand situation of Canadian rapeseed has improved significantly, and the end - of - season inventory in the 2025/26 period has increased, which continues to restrain its market price. The high - frequency data shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil has declined in the first 25 days, and the export data has improved, but there are doubts about the implementation progress of Indonesia's B50 plan. In the domestic market, oil mills are still shut down, and rapeseed oil is in a destocking mode, which supports its price. The possible tightening of soybean customs clearance policies has boosted the domestic oil market. However, with the arrival of Australian rapeseed and the expected improvement in China - Canada trade relations, the long - term supply pressure has increased [8]. - During the US soybean export season, the supply is abundant, and Brazil has a high expectation of a soybean bumper harvest. The US faces competition from cheaper Brazilian soybeans in the global market. China is moving forward steadily towards its goal of purchasing 1.2 billion tons of US soybeans. In the domestic market, the import of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal in the near term is still restricted. The supply is tight due to the shutdown of oil mills, and there are concerns about the possible tightening of soybean customs clearance policies. However, with the arrival of Australian rapeseed and the expected improvement in China - Canada trade relations, the long - term supply pressure has increased. At the same time, the substitution advantage of soybean meal is good, which weakens the demand expectation for rapeseed meal. The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Summary Rapeseed oil - **Market review**: This week, rapeseed oil futures rebounded from a low level, and the closing price of the 05 contract was 9,046 yuan/ton, up 302 yuan/ton from the previous week [8]. - **Market outlook**: The supply - demand situation of Canadian rapeseed has improved, and the end - of - season inventory has increased. The high - frequency data of Malaysian palm oil shows a decline in production and an improvement in exports, but there are doubts about Indonesia's B50 plan. Domestically, oil mills are shut down, and rapeseed oil is destocking, which supports the price. The possible tightening of soybean customs clearance policies has boosted the domestic oil market. However, the arrival of Australian rapeseed and the expected improvement in China - Canada trade relations increase long - term supply pressure [8]. Rapeseed meal - **Market review**: This week, rapeseed meal futures fluctuated and closed higher, with the 05 contract closing at 2,391 yuan/ton, up 68 yuan/ton from the previous week [10]. - **Market outlook**: During the US soybean export season, there is abundant supply, and Brazil has a high expectation of a soybean bumper harvest. The US faces competition from Brazilian soybeans. China is approaching its goal of purchasing US soybeans. Domestically, the import of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal in the near term is restricted, and oil mills are shut down, resulting in tight supply. There are concerns about the possible tightening of soybean customs clearance policies. However, the arrival of Australian rapeseed and the expected improvement in China - Canada trade relations increase long - term supply pressure. The substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation for rapeseed meal, and the market is in a situation of weak supply and demand [10]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets Futures price trends - This week, rapeseed oil futures fluctuated and closed higher, with a total open interest of 192,235 lots, down 15,944 lots from last week. Rapeseed meal futures also fluctuated and closed higher, with a total open interest of 650,686 lots, up 52,198 lots from last week [15]. Top - 20 net open interest changes - This week, the top - 20 net open interest of rapeseed oil futures was - 27,854, and last week it was - 27,499, with little change in net short positions. The top - 20 net open interest of rapeseed meal futures was - 32,331, and last week it was - 74,459, with a significant reduction in net short positions [21]. Futures warehouse receipts - The registered warehouse receipts of rapeseed oil were 3,456 lots, and those of rapeseed meal were 0 lots [25]. Spot prices and basis trends - The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was reported at 9,690 yuan/ton, significantly rebounding from last week. The basis between the active contract futures price of rapeseed oil and the spot price in Jiangsu was + 644 yuan/ton. The rapeseed meal price in Nantong, Jiangsu was reported at 2,460 yuan/ton, slightly rebounding from last week. The basis between the spot price in Jiangsu and the active contract futures price of rapeseed meal was + 69 yuan/ton [34][40]. Futures inter - month spread changes - The 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed oil was + 32 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period in recent years. The 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed meal was - 54 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in the same period in recent years [46]. Futures - to - spot ratio changes - The ratio of the 05 contract of rapeseed oil to rapeseed meal was 3.783, and the average spot price ratio was 3.94 [49]. Rapeseed oil - soybean oil and rapeseed oil - palm oil spread changes - The spread of the 05 contract of rapeseed oil - soybean oil was 1,210 yuan/ton, and the spread narrowed and fluctuated and widened this week. The spread of the 05 contract of rapeseed oil - palm oil was 478 yuan/ton, and the spread narrowed and fluctuated this week [58]. Soybean meal - rapeseed meal spread changes - The spread of the 05 contract of soybean meal - rapeseed meal was 399 yuan/ton. As of Thursday, the spot spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal was reported at 670 yuan/ton [64]. 3. Industry Chain Situation Rapeseed - **Supply**: As of the end of the 51st week of 2025, the total inventory of imported rapeseed in China was 60,000 tons, the same as last week, compared with 819,000 tons in the same period last year, with a five - week average of 50,000 tons. As of December 5, the estimated arrival volumes of rapeseed in December 2025, January 2026, and February 2026 were 150,000 tons, 450,000 tons, and 420,000 tons respectively. As of December 25, the spot crushing profit of imported rapeseed was + 1,254 yuan/ton. As of the 51st week of 2025, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 0 tons, the same as last week, with an operating rate of 0%. In November 2025, the total import volume of rapeseed was 200 tons, a decrease of 70,590 tons compared with 70,790 tons in the same period last year, a year - on - year decrease of 99.72%, and the import volume in the previous month was 0 tons [68][72][76][80]. Rapeseed oil - **Supply**: As of the end of the 51st week of 2025, the inventory of imported and crushed rapeseed oil in China was 358,000 tons, a decrease of 26,000 tons compared with 384,000 tons last week, a month - on - month decrease of 6.74%. In November 2025, the total import volume of rapeseed oil was 170,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons compared with 200,000 tons in the same period last year, a decrease of 15%, and an increase of 30,000 tons compared with 140,000 tons in the previous month [84]. - **Demand**: As of October 31, 2025, the monthly output of edible vegetable oil was reported at 427,600 tons. As of the end of November, the monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry were reported at 605.7 billion yuan. As of the end of the 51st week of 2025, the contract volume of imported and crushed rapeseed oil in China was 53,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons compared with 54,000 tons last week, a month - on - month decrease of 2.17% [88][92]. Rapeseed meal - **Supply**: As of the end of the 51st week of 2025, the inventory of imported and crushed rapeseed meal in China was 0 tons, the same as last week. In November 2025, the total import volume of rapeseed meal was 214,700 tons, an increase of 122,600 tons compared with 92,200 tons in the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 132.96%, and a month - on - month decrease of 5,900 tons compared with 220,600 tons in the previous month [96][100]. - **Demand**: As of November 30, 2025, the monthly output of feed was reported at 2.9779 million tons [104]. 4. Option Market Analysis - As of December 26, this week, rapeseed meal fluctuated and closed higher. The implied volatility of the corresponding option was 18.08%, a rebound of 1.59% from 16.49% last week, at a medium level of the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset [108].