Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - On December 15, 2025, the Treasury bond spot yields on the ultra - long end weakened significantly, with the 2 - 7Y maturity yields rising about 0.5 - 1.5bp, and the 10Y and 30Y yields rising about 1.55bp and 3.05bp to 1.86% and 2.28% respectively. Treasury bond futures weakened collectively, with the TS, T, TF, and TL main contracts falling 0.01%, 0.03%, 0.12%, and 0.99% respectively. The weighted average rate of DR007 oscillated around 1.44%. [4] - Domestically, in November, industrial added - value increased year - on - year, social retail sales slowed marginally, fixed - asset investment continued to shrink, and the unemployment rate remained stable. November's financial data showed structural differentiation. With the boost of direct financing, the increase in aggregate social financing exceeded expectations; credit continued to weaken, with household loans being the main drag, and the medium - and long - term investment demand of enterprises remained weak. Affected by the base effect, the growth rates of M1 and M2 declined, and the M1 - M2 gap widened again. In November, CPI continued to improve, rising 0.7% year - on - year; the marginal slowdown of the anti - involution effect led to a slight expansion of the year - on - year decline in PPI. [4] - In terms of news, the December Politburo meeting pointed out that next year's economic work should continue to implement a more active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, give play to the integrated effect of existing and incremental policies, and increase counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustment. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected in December, the third rate cut this year. The Fed said that the current unemployment rate has risen slightly, but inflation remains high, and the future interest - rate path will be decided based on economic data. [4] - Overall, the December Central Economic Work Conference and Politburo meeting set a positive tone. Next year's fiscal and monetary policies will continue the loose tone, and the expectation of loose money has increased. However, the uncertainty of the market about the implementation rhythm of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest - rate cuts has increased. In the short term, there is a lack of new information guidance, and the sentiment in the bond market remains weak, and it may continue the adjustment trend in the short term. [4] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures Market - **Futures Prices and Volumes**: The closing prices of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts were 107.870 (-0.12%), 105.785 (-0.03%), 102.454 (-0.01%), and 111.530 (-0.99%) respectively. The trading volumes of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts were 101,896 (up 4,380), 78,602 (up 3,843), 36,811 (up 3,534), and 160,418 (down 8,058) respectively. [2] - **Futures Spreads**: Multiple futures spreads changed, such as the TL2603 - 2606 spread decreased by 0.03 to -0.22, and the T03 - TL03 spread increased by 0.83 to -3.66. [2] - **Futures Positions**: The main contract positions of T, TF, TS, and TL all increased, with changes of 851, 2,976, 2,279, and 3,039 respectively. The net short positions of T and TL decreased by 2,271 and 704 respectively, while those of TF and TS increased by 235 and 503 respectively. [2] 2. CTD Bonds - The net prices of several CTD bonds changed, with most showing a downward trend, such as 250018.IB (6y) decreasing by 0.0792 to 100.2498, except for 230002.IB (2y) which increased by 0.0104 to 102.6436. [2] 3. Active Treasury Bonds - The yields of active Treasury bonds with different maturities increased, with 1y remaining unchanged at 1.3875%, 3y increasing by 0.50bp to 1.4150%, 5y increasing by 2.00bp to 1.6150%, 7y increasing by 2.75bp to 1.7275%, and 10y increasing by 2.75bp to 1.8425%. [2] 4. Short - term Interest Rates - The silver - pledged overnight rate decreased by 1.44bp to 1.2856%, the Shibor overnight rate decreased by 0.50bp to 1.2740%, the silver - pledged 7 - day rate increased by 5.00bp to 1.5100%, the Shibor 7 - day rate decreased by 1.90bp to 1.4320%, the silver - pledged 14 - day rate decreased by 3.00bp to 1.4900%, and the Shibor 14 - day rate increased by 0.20bp to 1.5110%. [2] 5. LPR Rates - The 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates remained unchanged at 3.00% and 3.5% respectively. [2] 6. Open - market Operations - The issuance scale of open - market operations was 130.9 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 122.3 billion yuan, and the interest rate was 1.4% for 7 days. Additionally, on December 15, the central bank carried out a 600 - billion - yuan 6 - month (182 - day) outright reverse - repurchase operation. [2][3] 7. Macroeconomic Data - In November, China's social消费品 retail总额 was 438.98 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.3%. From January to November, it was 4,560.67 billion yuan, a 4.0% increase. Fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) from January to November decreased by 2.6% year - on - year. The added - value of industrial enterprises above designated size in November increased by 4.8% year - on - year. The national urban survey unemployment rate in November was 5.1%, unchanged from the previous month. [2] - In November, the sales prices of commercial residential buildings in 70 large and medium - sized cities decreased month - on - month overall, and the year - on - year decline widened. [3]

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 最新 IF主力合约（2512） | 4545.6 | -29.2↓ IF次主力合约（2603） | 4501.0 | 环比 -30.4↓ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | IC主力合约（2512） | 7115.8 | -63.2↓ IC次主力合约（2603） | 6940.8 | -60.6↓ | | | IH主力合约（2512） | 2983.8 | -2.4↓ IH次主力合约（2603） | 2977.0 | -2.0↓ | | | IM主力合约（2512） | 7308.0 | -60.2↓ IM次主力合约（2603） | 7073.0 | -55.0↓ | | | IF-IH当月合约价差 | 1561.8 | -25.4↓ IC-IF当月合约价差 | 2570.2 | -29.8↓ | | 期货盘面 | IM-IC当月合约价差 | 192.2 | +4.4↑ IC-IH当月合约价差 | 4132.0 | -55.2↓ | | | IM-IF当月合约价差 | 2762.4 | -25.4↓ IM-I ...

研究员: 张昕 期货从业资格号F03109641 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0018457 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | 期货主力合约收盘价:生猪(日,元/吨) | 11305 | -20 主力合约持仓量:生猪(日,手) | 154627 | -1466 | | | 仓单数量:生猪(日,手) | 823 | 300 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:生猪(日,手) | -44014 | -1368 | | 现货价格 | 生猪价 河南 驻马店(日,元/吨) | 11 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - On December 15, the JM2605 contract of coking coal closed at 1061.0, up 3.16%. After continuous decline, coking coal had a technical rebound. The macro - situation emphasized the comprehensive improvement of "involution - style" competition. Fundamentally, Mongolian customs clearance vehicles remained at a high level at the end of the year, and the inventory at Ganqimaodu Port continued to accumulate. Technically, the daily K - line was below the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, with a short - term weak and volatile trend [2]. - On December 15, the J2601 contract of coke closed at 1503.5, up 0.30%, with a second - round price cut in the spot market. The macro - situation aimed to guide the standardized export of steel products. Fundamentally, iron - water production decreased, and coke inventory was moderately weak. In terms of profit, the average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was 44 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K - line was below the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, with a short - term weak and volatile trend [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - JM主力合约收盘价 rose to 1061.00 yuan/ton, up 44.50; J主力合约收盘价 rose to 1503.50 yuan/ton, up 28.50 [2]. - JM期货合约持仓量 decreased to 738631.00 hands, down 20458.00; J期货合约持仓量 decreased to 44452.00 hands, down 2146.00 [2]. - The net position of the top 20 coking coal contracts increased to - 38651.00 hands, up 13096.00; the net position of the top 20 coke contracts increased to 95.00 hands, up 459.00 [2]. - The JM5 - 1 month contract spread rose to 95.50 yuan/ton, up 24.50; the J5 - 1 month contract spread rose to 167.50 yuan/ton, up 14.50 [2]. - Coking coal warehouse receipts increased to 300.00, up 200.00; coke warehouse receipts remained at 2070.00 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Ganqimaodu Mongolian No.5 raw coal remained at 930.00 yuan/ton, and the price of Tangshan Grade - I metallurgical coke remained at 1775.00 yuan/ton [2]. - The price of Russian main coking coal forward spot remained at 161.50 US dollars/wet ton, and the price of Rizhao Port quasi - Grade - I metallurgical coke remained at 1570.00 yuan/ton [2]. - The price of Australian imported main coking coal at Jingtang Port decreased to 1410.00 yuan/ton, down 10.00; the price of Tianjin Port Grade - I metallurgical coke remained at 1670.00 yuan/ton [2]. - The J主力合约基差 decreased to 271.50 yuan/ton, down 28.50; the JM主力合约基差 decreased to 549.00 yuan/ton, down 44.50 [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The daily output of clean coal from 314 independent coal washing plants increased to 27.90 million tons, up 0.80; the weekly inventory of clean coal from 314 independent coal washing plants increased to 332.40 million tons, up 11.00 [2]. - The weekly capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants increased to 0.38%, up 0.02; the monthly raw coal output increased to 42679.00 million tons, up 2004.00 [2]. - The monthly import volume of coal and lignite increased to 4405.30 million tons, up 231.30; the daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines decreased to 189.80, down 0.60 [2]. - The weekly inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports increased to 481.60 million tons, up 11.00; the weekly inventory of coke at 18 ports increased to 248.60 million tons, up 2.80 [2]. - The weekly total inventory of coking coal of independent coking enterprises increased to 1037.30 million tons, up 28.10; the weekly inventory of coke of independent coking enterprises increased to 87.32 million tons, up 10.88 [2]. - The weekly coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills nationwide decreased to 794.65 million tons, down 3.62; the weekly coke inventory of 247 sample steel mills increased to 635.28 million tons, up 10.03 [2]. - The weekly available days of coking coal of independent coking enterprises decreased to 12.82 days, down 0.06; the weekly available days of coke of 247 sample steel mills increased to 11.66 days, up 0.37 [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of coking coal decreased to 1059.32 million tons, down 33.04; the monthly export volume of coke and semi - coke decreased to 0.00 million tons, down 73.00 [2]. - The monthly output of coking coal increased to 4231.51 million tons, up 255.59; the weekly capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises decreased to 73.16%, down 0.68 [2]. - The weekly profit per ton of coke of independent coking plants increased to 44.00 yuan/ton, up 14.00 [2]. - The monthly output of coke decreased to 4170.00 million tons, down 19.60 [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills nationwide decreased to 78.61%, down 1.53; the weekly blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills decreased to 85.90%, down 1.16 [2]. - The monthly crude steel output decreased to 6987.00 million tons, down 212.70 [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The National Development and Reform Work Conference emphasized measures to promote investment recovery, increase the scale of central budgetary investment, and comprehensively improve "involution - style" competition and develop new kinetic energy [2]. - The Ministry of Finance pointed out the need to maintain appropriate fiscal deficits, debt - scale, and expenditure, and make good use of government bond funds and issue ultra - long - term special treasury bonds [2]. - The housing - purchase interest - subsidy policy attracted attention, and some cities saw a more than 15% month - on - month increase in new - home transactions after the pilot [2].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the insurance sector, recommending specific companies such as China Pacific Insurance, China Ping An, China Life (H), and China Taiping, while also recommending New China Life Insurance [4][17]. Core Insights - The financial industry experienced a mixed performance, with the non-bank financial index rising by 0.81%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.89 percentage points. The insurance sector showed a notable increase of 2.36%, while the banking sector declined by 1.77% [2][11]. - The central economic work conference emphasized a proactive fiscal policy, which is expected to benefit the insurance sector by increasing infrastructure asset supply and improving credit risk perceptions [14][15]. - The report highlights the potential for valuation recovery in the brokerage sector, driven by regulatory changes that align public fund interests with long-term investor returns [18][19]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Performance and Sector Insights - The non-bank financial index rose by 0.81%, with the insurance sector outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.44 percentage points [2][11]. - The banking sector underperformed, with a decline of 1.77%, attributed to macroeconomic policy expectations [3][21]. 2. Insurance Sector Data Tracking - The insurance sector's premium income showed steady growth, with life insurance and property insurance premiums increasing by 9.6% and 4.0% year-on-year, respectively [17][26]. - The report notes that the 10-year government bond yield decreased to 1.84%, which is favorable for the insurance sector's investment strategies [31]. 3. Brokerage Sector Data Tracking - The brokerage sector's PB valuation stands at 1.37x, indicating potential for valuation recovery as earnings improve [19][42]. - Regulatory changes in public fund sales are expected to enhance the industry's focus on long-term investor interests [18][19]. 4. Banking Sector Data Tracking - The banking sector's PB valuation is at 0.54x, suggesting it remains undervalued [21][25]. - The central economic work conference's focus on domestic demand and flexible monetary policy is expected to support the banking sector's growth [22][23].

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12.12」 宏观市场周报 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 作者：廖宏斌 期货投资咨询证号：Z0020723 联系电话：4008-8787-66 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、本周小结及下周 配置建议 2、重要新闻及事件 3、本周国内外经济 数据 4、下周重要经济指 标及经济大事 「本周小结及下周配置建议」 | 股票 | | 债券 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪深 300 -0.08% | 10 年国债到期收益率-0.06%/本周变动-0.11BP | | | | 沪深 300 股指期货 -0.09% | 主力 10 年期国债期货 +0.09% | | | | 本周点评：A股主要指数本周普遍上涨，除上证指数外 | 本周点评：12月中央经济工作会议定调积极，明年财政、 | | | | 均有不同幅度上涨。四期指表现分化，中小盘股强于大 | 货币政策将延续宽松基调，宽货币预期增强。但受公募 | | | | 盘蓝筹股。周四召开的中央经济工作会议延续了周一政 | 基金赎回新规、银行年末兑现浮盈需求等因素扰动，当 | | | | 治局会议的积极定 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Macro environment is weak, and import volume is surging, causing the coking coal futures price to run weakly. The short - term market sentiment of coking coal is weakening, facing pressure from supply - demand and delivery. The decline trend of crude steel output will continue, and the downstream restocking willingness is insufficient. The coking coal futures 2605 contract should focus on the 1000 support, and the coke futures 2601 contract price should focus on the 1450 - 1500 support [8]. Summary by Sections 1. Week - to - Week Summary 1.1 Market Review - The daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines is 189.8 tons, a decrease of 0.6 tons compared to the previous week. - The daily output of clean coal from 314 independent coal washing plants is 27.9 tons, an increase of 0.8 tons compared to the previous week. - The total inventory of coking coal (independent coking plants + 6 major ports + steel mills) is 1949.79 tons, an increase of 36.89 tons compared to the previous week and a year - on - year decrease of 4.19%. - The warehouse receipt of Tangshan Mongolian 5 clean coal is reported at 1350, with the discounted futures price at 1130. - The average profit per ton of coke from 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 44 yuan/ton. - The profitability rate of steel mills is 35.93%, a decrease of 0.43 percentage points compared to last week and a decrease of 12.12 percentage points compared to last year. - The daily average pig iron output is 229.2 tons, a decrease of 3.10 tons compared to last week and a decrease of 3.27 tons compared to last year [7]. 1.2 Market Outlook - Macro: The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee mentioned in the meeting on December 8 that it is necessary to ensure the supply of important livelihood commodities at the end of the year and the beginning of the new year. The core policy directions for major coal - producing areas in the 14th Five - Year Plan are stable production and supply, capacity continuation, and enhanced clean and efficient utilization of coal. - Overseas: The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points during the December 9 - 10 meeting, lowering the federal funds rate target range to 3.50%–3.75%. Most global investment banks predict that the Fed will cut interest rates by a total of 50 basis points in two cuts in 2026, mainly in the first half of the year. - Supply - demand: On the import side, the number of customs - cleared vehicles from Mongolia remains high at the end of the year, and the inventory at the Ganqimaodu Port has reached 310 tons. In the industrial aspect, the capacity utilization rate of mines has declined for 3 consecutive weeks, and the clean coal inventory of upstream and mid - stream mines and coal washing plants has increased for 6 consecutive weeks, with a neutral inventory level [8]. 2. Futures and Spot Market 2.1 Futures Market - As of December 12, the open interest of coking coal futures contracts is 75.9 million lots, a decrease of 9.4 million lots compared to the previous period. - As of December 12, the spread between coking coal contracts 5 - 1 is 71.0, a decrease of 13 points compared to the previous period. - As of December 12, the number of registered coking coal warehouse receipts is 100 lots, an increase of 100 lots compared to the previous period. - As of December 12, the ratio of coke to coking coal in January futures contracts is 1.56, an increase of 0.06 compared to the previous period [14][18]. 2.2 Spot Market - As of December 11, 2025, the ex - factory price of Mongolian coking coal (5, Ganqimaodu Port) is reported at 1180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. - As of December 12, the basis of coking coal is 315.0 yuan/ton, an increase of 56.5 points compared to the previous period [26]. 3. Industry Chain Situation 3.1 Production - This week, the capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines is 85.3%, a decrease of 0.3% compared to the previous period. The daily average output of raw coal is 189.8 tons, a decrease of 0.6 tons compared to the previous period; the raw coal inventory is 472.4 tons, an increase of 0.8 tons compared to the previous period; the daily average output of clean coal is 75.0 tons, a decrease of 0.4 tons compared to the previous period; the clean coal inventory is 255.3 tons, an increase of 8.3 tons compared to the previous period. - This week, the capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants is 38.2%, an increase of 1.7% compared to the previous period; the daily output of clean coal is 27.9 tons, an increase of 0.8 tons compared to the previous period; the clean coal inventory is 332.4 tons, an increase of 11.0 tons compared to the previous period. - This week, the capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 71.92%, a decrease of 0.72% compared to the previous period; the daily output of coke is 50.33 tons, a decrease of 0.5 tons compared to the previous period. - The daily average pig iron output is 229.2 tons, a decrease of 3.10 tons compared to last week and a decrease of 3.27 tons compared to last year [29][34]. 3.2 Inventory - As of December 12, 2025, the total coking coal inventory (independent coking plants + 6 major ports + steel mills) is 1949.79 tons, an increase of 36.89 tons compared to the previous period and a year - on - year decrease of 4.19%. - This week, the inventory of imported coking coal in 16 ports nationwide is 481.60 tons, an increase of 11.00 tons compared to the previous period. - This week, the coking coal inventory of 230 independent coking enterprises is 883.33 tons, an increase of 25.9 tons compared to the previous period; the available days of coking coal are 13.2 days, an increase of 0.52 days compared to the previous period. - This week, the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills is 794.65 tons, a decrease of 3.62 tons compared to the previous period; the available days of coking coal are 12.82 days, a decrease of 0.06 days compared to the previous period; the pulverized coal injection inventory is 422.86 tons, an increase of 4.15 tons compared to the previous period; the available days of pulverized coal injection are 12.55 days, an increase of 0.24 days compared to the previous period [38][42][46]. 3.3 Profitability - The average profit per ton of coke from 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 44 yuan/ton. The average profit of Shanxi quasi - first - grade coke is 61 yuan/ton, Shandong quasi - first - grade coke is 100 yuan/ton, Inner Mongolia second - grade coke is 5 yuan/ton, and Hebei quasi - first - grade coke is 89 yuan/ton [50]. 3.4 Policy and Output - The National Development and Reform Commission aims to continuously enhance the coal production and supply capacity and strengthen the coal's role as a guarantee. In 2025, from January to October, the cumulative output of raw coal in China is 397319.4 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. In October 2025, China's raw coal output is 40675.0 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%. - In September 2025, China's coking coal output is 3975.92 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.55% [52][54]. 3.5 Import - From January to October 2025, the cumulative import volume of coking coal is 9416.06 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.78%. In October 2025, the total import volume of coking coal is 1059.32 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.02% and a year - on - year increase of 6.39%. The import reduction mainly comes from Mongolia due to the increase of 7 days of legal holidays in October, resulting in a decline in the overall number of customs - cleared vehicles [59].

碳酸锂市场周报 瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12.12」 需求韧性库存去化，锂价或将有所支撑 研究员:陈思嘉 期货从业资格号 F03118799 期货投资咨询 从业证书号 Z0022803 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 行情回顾：碳酸锂主力周线震荡偏强，涨跌幅为+6.03%，振幅11.39%。截止本周主力合约收盘报价97720元/吨。 后市展望：宏观方面，中央经济工作会议在北京举行，定调明年经济工作，强调要继续实施更加积极的财政政策，保 持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量，重视解决地方财政困难。要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，灵活高效运 用降准降息等多种政策工具。基本面原料端，由于碳酸锂盘面走强，拉动矿价上行，海外矿山挺价持续，冶炼厂亦有 一定采购需求，故矿价支撑较稳固。供给端，由于锂价较优，冶炼厂利润情况向好，生产积极性较高，加之新增产线 的逐渐投产，锂盐厂生产保持稳定增长。需求端，下游电芯厂订单排产仍处高位，虽传统消费旺季已过，但动力以及 储能行业的供需两旺，令碳酸锂需求保持较强韧性，产业链持续去库存， ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of the main contract of Zhengzhou jujube futures declined, with a weekly drop of about 4.24%. As the new jujube harvest progresses, the production in each producing area is becoming clearer. The overall jujube supply is relatively loose, and downstream consumption lacks highlights. With about two months until the Spring Festival, attention should be paid to the consumption situation during the peak season [9][13] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Key Points Summary - Future trading tips include monitoring spot prices and the consumer end - The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou jujube futures declined this week, with a weekly drop of about 4.24% - As of December 11, 2025, the physical inventory of 36 sample points of jujubes this week was 15,790 tons, an increase of 1,880 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 13.52% and a year - on - year increase of 22.01% - In the 2025 production season, the acquisition structure of gray jujubes is decentralized. The overall jujube supply is relatively loose, and downstream consumption lacks highlights [9] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures price trends**: The price of the Zhengzhou jujube 2605 contract declined this week, with a weekly drop of about 4.24% [13] - **Top 20 positions**: As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in jujube futures was - 10,354 lots [14] - **Warehouse receipts**: As of this week, the number of Zhengzhou jujube warehouse receipts was 883 [19] - **Futures spreads**: As of this week, the spread between the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange jujube futures 2605 contract and the 2609 contract was - 320 yuan/ton [22] - **Basis**: As of this week, the basis between the spot price of Hebei gray jujubes and the main contract of jujube futures was 855 yuan/ton [25] - **Purchase prices in main producing areas**: As of December 12, 2025, the purchase price of jujube bulk goods in Aksu was 5.15 yuan/kg, in Alar was 5.65 yuan/kg, and in Kashgar was 6.5 yuan/kg [28] - **First - grade jujube spot prices**: As of December 12, 2025, the wholesale price of first - grade gray jujubes in Cangzhou, Hebei was 4.4 yuan/jin, and in Henan was 4.45 yuan/jin [32] - **Special - grade jujube spot prices**: As of December 12, 2025, the spot price of special - grade gray jujubes in Cangzhou, Hebei was 9.78 yuan/kg, and the wholesale price in Henan was 9.9 yuan/kg [36] 3.3 Industry Situation - **Supply side - Inventory situation**: As of December 11, 2025, the physical inventory of 36 sample points of jujubes this week was 15,790 tons, an increase of 1,880 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 13.52% and a year - on - year increase of 22.01% - **Supply side - Possible decline in production**: The jujube production in the 2025/26 production season is expected to decline - **Demand side - Monthly jujube export volume**: In October 2025, China's jujube export volume was 2,205,220 kg, with an export value of 35,238,139 yuan and an export average price of 15,979.42 yuan/ton. The export volume decreased by 3.44% month - on - month and 33.29% year - on - year. From January to October 2025, the cumulative export was 25,753,622 kg, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 0.18% - **Demand side - Inactive trading of BOCE Xinjiang Jujube Good Brand**: This week, the order volume of BOCE Xinjiang Jujube Good Brand had a small amount of transactions [40][44][48][53] 3.4 Options Market and Futures - Stock Linkage - **Options market**: Information about the implied volatility of at - the - money options of jujubes this week was presented in a chart, but no specific data was given - **Stock market - Hao Xiang Ni**: A chart of the price - earnings ratio of Hao Xiang Ni (002582) was presented, but no specific analysis was provided [54][56]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Macro: The Politburo meeting on December 8 emphasized ensuring the supply of important livelihood commodities, and coal policies focus on stable production, supply, and clean utilization [7]. - Overseas: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points on December 9 - 10, and most investment banks predict a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut in 2026, mainly in the first half [7]. - Supply - demand: Market transactions are mainly for terminal rigid - demand restocking, with neutral inventory. Profits in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia are in the red, and the December HeSteel 75B ferrosilicon tender price dropped by 80 yuan/ton [7]. - Technical: The weekly K - line of ferrosilicon's main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, indicating a bearish trend [7]. - Strategy: Supply is expected to decline in December due to losses and no new capacity. Demand will continue to fall as the country maintains the policy of reducing crude steel output. The ferrosilicon 2603 contract is expected to oscillate between 5400 - 5700 [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Macro: The Politburo meeting focused on livelihood and coal policies, and the Fed cut interest rates [7]. - Supply - demand: Market transactions are for rigid - demand restocking, with neutral inventory. Inner Mongolia's spot profit is - 440 yuan/ton, and Ningxia's is - 565 yuan/ton. The December HeSteel 75B ferrosilicon tender price dropped by 80 yuan/ton [7]. - Technical: The weekly K - line of the main contract is bearish [7]. - Strategy: Supply will decline in December, demand will continue to fall, and the 2603 contract is expected to oscillate between 5400 - 5700 [7] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures Market: As of December 12, the ferrosilicon futures contract open interest was 439,900 lots, a decrease of 21,400 lots. The 5 - 1 contract spread was 42, an increase of 8. The warehouse receipt quantity was 13,082, a decrease of 506. The Ningxia ferrosilicon price was 5200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton [13][19] - Spot Market: As of December 12, the ferrosilicon basis was - 350, a decrease of 26 points [25] 3.3 Industry Chain - Supply - demand: The national 136 - enterprise sample's capacity utilization rate was 32.44%, a decrease of 1.36%. The daily output was 15,180 tons, a decrease of 2.32%. The five - major steel grades' ferrosilicon weekly demand was 18,048 tons, a decrease of 3.83%. The national ferrosilicon weekly supply was 106,300 tons [29] - Inventory: The national 60 - enterprise sample's inventory was 77,840 tons, an increase of 7.16%. Inner Mongolia's inventory increased by 6000 tons, while Ningxia's decreased by 200 tons [34] - Upstream: As of December 8, the Ningxia electricity price increased by 2.53%, and the Inner Mongolia electricity price remained unchanged. As of December 11, the domestic market price of semi - coke remained unchanged [38] - Profit: As of December 12, the Inner Mongolia ferrosilicon production cost was 5564 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.20%, and the profit was - 444 yuan/ton, a decrease of 62.04%. Ningxia's production cost was 5665 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the profit was - 565 yuan/ton, unchanged [42] - Downstream: The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 31,000 tons week - on - week and 32,700 tons year - on - year. From January to October, China's ferrosilicon exports decreased by 8.85% year - on - year [49]