| | | 贵金属期货日报 | | | 2025/12/16 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | 数据指标 | 环比 | 最新 | 环比 | | 期货市场 | 沪金主力合约收盘价（日，元/克） 971.420 | -11.7↓ 沪银主力合约收盘价（日，元/千克） | | 14666 | -127.00↓ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪金(日,手) 196,206.00 | -6832.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:沪银(日,手) | | 17,354.00 | +10148.00↑ | | | 主力合约成交量:沪金 293,904.00 | -145858.00↓ 主力合约成交量:沪银 | | 1,571,376.00 | -785850.00↓ | | | 仓单数量:沪金(日,千克) 91302 | 0↑ 仓单数量:沪银(日,千克) | | 890,715 | 32901↑ | | 现货市场 | 上金所黄金现货价 964.89 | -11.93↓ 华通一号白银现货价 | | 14,872.00 | 234.00↑ | | | 沪金主 ...

天然橡胶产业日报 2025-12-16 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 沪胶1-5价差(日,元/吨) | 15170 25 | -30 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 0 20号胶2-3价差(日,元/吨) | 12385 -5 | 25 -10 | | 期货市场 | | | | | | | | 沪胶与20号胶价差(日,元/吨) | 2785 | -55 沪胶主力合约 持仓量(日,手) | 132080 | 328 | | | 20号胶主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 59234 | -1720 沪胶前20名净持仓 | -31306 | -291 | | | 20号胶前20名净持仓 | -11913 | -363 沪胶交易所仓单(日,吨) | 84260 | 11300 | | | 20号胶交易所仓单(日,吨) | 59573 | 0 | | | | | 上海市场国营全乳胶(日,元/吨) | 14900 | -50 上海市场越南3L(日,元/吨 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - After entering December, the reserve demand has slowed down, but there is still short - term replenishment demand. The demand for urea from the compound fertilizer industry is relatively strong, and the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers is expected to rise steadily. The continuous demand from the high - operating compound fertilizer industry, appropriate replenishment of reserve demand, and the fulfillment of some export orders have led to a continuous decline in urea factory inventories last week. In the short term, the inventories may continue to decline slightly. The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1650 - 1720 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1630 yuan/ton, with a change of 1; the 1 - 5 spread is - 43 yuan/ton, with a change of - 6518. The main contract's open interest is 81993 lots, a decrease of 15767 lots, and the net position of the top 20 is - 14734. The exchange warehouse receipts are 11214, a decrease of 31 [2] 3.2现货市场 - In the spot market, the prices in Hebei, Shandong are unchanged at 1710 yuan/ton and 1700 yuan/ton respectively. The prices in Henan, Jiangsu, and Anhui decreased by 20 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, and 10 yuan/ton to 1670 yuan/ton, 1680 yuan/ton, and 1670 yuan/ton respectively. The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 70 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1. The FOB prices in the Baltic and Chinese main ports are 347.5 dollars/ton and 387.5 dollars/ton respectively, with no change [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - The port inventory is 12.3 million tons, an increase of 1.8 million tons; the enterprise inventory is 123.42 million tons, a decrease of 5.63 million tons. The urea enterprise operating rate is 81.85%, an increase of 0.02%. The daily urea output is 197900 tons, with no change. The urea export volume is 120 million tons, a decrease of 17. The monthly urea output is 6000330 tons, an increase of 129060 tons [2] 3.4下游情况 - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 40.62%, an increase of 0.09%. The melamine operating rate is 61.86%, an increase of 0.2%. The weekly profit of compound fertilizers in China is 137 yuan/ton, an increase of 81 yuan/ton. The weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea is - 13 yuan/ton, an increase of 16 yuan/ton. The monthly output of compound fertilizers is 438.25 million tons, an increase of 75.38 million tons. The weekly output of melamine is 32200 tons, an increase of 100 tons [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of December 10, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 123.42 million tons, a decrease of 5.63 million tons from last week, a 4.36% decrease. As of December 11, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 12.3 million tons, an increase of 1.8 million tons, a 17.14% increase. As of December 11, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 138.54 million tons, an increase of 0.03 million tons, a 0.02% increase [2] 3.6提示关注 - Pay attention to Longzhong's enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate on Thursday [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Report's Core View - The short - term total inventory of domestic methanol producers may accumulate due to a slight decline in inland enterprise inventory and abundant supply in the main production areas. The port inventory decreased significantly last week, and the future situation of foreign vessel unloading should be continuously monitored. The MTO industry's operating rate is expected to decline. The MA2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2070 - 2170 in the short term [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2129 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 55 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 price difference is - 50 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 896,627 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 526,136 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 146,999 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 8,435, with a week - on - week decrease of 188 [2] Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2095 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia is 1960 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous period. The price difference between the East and the Northwest is 135 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 5 yuan/ton. The basis of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract is - 34 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 55 yuan/ton. The CFR price at the main Chinese ports is 245 US dollars/ton, and in Southeast Asia is 317 US dollars/ton, both unchanged. The FOB price in Rotterdam is 254 euros/ton, unchanged. The price difference between the main Chinese ports and Southeast Asia is - 72 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 4.04 US dollars/million British thermal units, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.06 US dollars [2] Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports is 83.06 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 10.82 tons; the inventory at South China ports is 40.38 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.68 tons. The methanol import profit is 7.52 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 27.08 yuan/ton. The monthly import volume is 161.26 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 18.57 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 352,800 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 8,700 tons. The methanol enterprise operating rate is 89.81%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.72 percentage points [2] Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde operating rate is 41.49%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.42 percentage points; the dimethyl ether operating rate is 8.98%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.1 percentage points; the acetic acid operating rate is 73.89%, with a week - on - week increase of 4.27 percentage points; the MTBE operating rate is 69.75%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.22 percentage points; the olefin operating rate is 89.95%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.87 percentage points. The methanol - to - olefin on - paper profit is - 931 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 13 yuan/ton [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 17.91%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.63 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 18.04%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.06 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 0.55%, with a week - on - week decrease of 17.39 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 17.94%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.57 percentage points [2] Industry News - As of December 10, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample producers was 35.28 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.87 tons or 2.40%. The pending orders of sample enterprises were 20.75 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.22 tons or 13.45%. The total inventory at Chinese methanol ports was 123.44 tons, a decrease of 11.5 tons from the previous period. As of December 11, the overall domestic methanol output increased, and the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants was 90.20%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.68% [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The new sugar - making season is approaching its peak in the domestic market, with continuous increase in supply, weakening spot prices, and lack of bullish drivers. It is expected that the sugar price will fluctuate at a low level in the future [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for sugar is 5133 yuan/ton, down 74 yuan; the main contract's open interest is 481,426 lots, up 51,928 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 611, unchanged; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 79,005 lots, down 10,879 lots; the effective warehouse receipt forecast is 1490, unchanged [2] Spot Market - The estimated import - processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4127 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 4149 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan. The estimated price of imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5231 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 5260 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan. The spot price of sugar in Yunnan Kunming is 5260 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; in Guangxi Nanning is 5340 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; in Guangxi Liuzhou is 5400 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sown area is 1480 thousand hectares, up 60 thousand hectares; the sown area of sugar - cane in Guangxi is 840.33 thousand hectares, up 5.24 thousand hectares. The cumulative sugar production in the country is 1116.21 million tons, up 4.48 million tons; the cumulative sales of sugar in Guangxi is 237.4 million tons, down 593.35 million tons. The total sugar exports from Brazil is 330.2 million tons, down 90.3 million tons [2] Industry Situation - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1170 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 1148 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan. The price difference outside the quota (50% tariff) for Brazilian sugar is 66 yuan/ton, up 47 yuan; for Thai sugar is 37 yuan/ton, up 47 yuan. The monthly sugar import volume is 75 million tons, up 20 million tons; the cumulative import volume is 390 million tons, up 74 million tons [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar is 88.3 million tons, up 34.39 million tons; the monthly output of soft drinks is 1096.2 million tons, down 495.5 million tons [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 8.56%, up 0.6%; that of at - the - money put options is 8.6%, up 0.61%. The 20 - day historical volatility is 5.53%, unchanged; the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.3%, unchanged [2] Industry News - Brazil exported 1.6008 billion tons of sugar in the first two weeks of December, with a daily average of 160 thousand tons, a 19% increase compared to the daily average of December last year. The total export volume in December last year was 2.8337 billion tons. The most actively traded March raw sugar futures on ICE fell 0.15 cents or 1.0% to settle at 14.95 cents per pound due to the prospect of increased supply [2] Tip for Attention - As of now, 66 sugar mills in Guangxi have started production in the 25/26 sugar - making season, 5 less than the same period last year, with a daily sugar - cane crushing capacity of 537.5 thousand tons, 29 thousand tons less than last year. 29 sugar mills in Yunnan have started production, 10 more than last year, and more than half of the sugar mills have started production [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints Corn - The US corn is in the peak export season with high short - term supply pressure. The global and US corn supply - demand is relatively loose, suppressing international corn prices. However, the USDA's downward adjustment of the 2025/26 US corn ending inventory forecast supports US corn prices [2]. - In the domestic Northeast region, the increased acquisition by reserve depots in December supports the market bottom. But high prices limit the purchasing enthusiasm of grain - using enterprises, and the release of grain sources due to the concerns of growers and traders leads to a price correction. In the North China and Huanghuai regions, the price fluctuates slightly due to the changes in the selling enthusiasm of growers and the influence of policy auction news [2]. - The corn futures price has fallen from the high level recently after the previous over - expected rise. It has high short - term volatility, and it is advisable to wait and see [2]. Corn Starch - With the increase in the supply of new - season corn, the industry operating rate has continuously recovered, increasing the supply - side pressure. However, the downstream demand is good, and the inventory of corn starch enterprises has decreased. The starch futures price has fallen synchronously with corn, and it is advisable to wait and see in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Corn starch futures closing price (active contract): 2220 yuan/ton; corn futures closing price (active contract): 2502 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton [2]. - Corn monthly spread (1 - 5): - 18 yuan/ton; corn starch monthly spread (1 - 3): 8 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton [2]. - Corn futures open interest (active contract): 444922 lots, down 46263 lots; corn starch futures open interest (active contract): 137793 lots, down 8866 lots [2]. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: - 103390 lots for corn, - 33318 lots for corn starch, up 1952 lots [2]. - Registered warehouse receipts: 56230 lots for yellow corn, 2500 lots for corn starch [2]. - CS - C spread of the main contract: 329 yuan/ton [2]. Outer - market - CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract): 439.5 cents/bushel; CBOT corn total open interest (weekly): 1616139 contracts, up 13001 contracts [2]. - CBOT corn non - commercial net long positions: 120900 contracts [2]. Spot Market - Average spot price of corn: 2353.92 yuan/ton, down 1.96 yuan/ton; factory quotation of corn starch in Changchun: 2590 yuan/ton [2]. - FOB price of corn in Jinzhou Port: 2290 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton; factory quotation of corn starch in Weifang: 2800 yuan/ton [2]. - CIF price of imported corn: 2122.58 yuan/ton, down 18.49 yuan/ton; factory quotation of corn starch in Shijiazhuang: 2730 yuan/ton [2]. - International freight of imported corn: 50 US dollars/ton, down 2 US dollars/ton; basis of the main corn starch contract: 77 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - Forecasted sown area of corn in the US: 425.53 million hectares; forecasted yield: 36.44 million tons, up 0.55 million tons [2]. - Forecasted sown area of corn in Brazil: 131 million hectares; forecasted yield: 22.6 million tons [2]. - Forecasted sown area of corn in Argentina: 53 million hectares; forecasted yield: 7.5 million tons [2]. - Forecasted sown area of corn in China: 295 million hectares; forecasted yield: 44.3 million tons [2]. - Forecasted yield of corn in Ukraine: 32 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - Corn inventory in southern ports: 31.5 million tons, down 20.2 million tons; deep - processing corn inventory: 294 million tons, up 18.6 million tons [2]. - Corn inventory in northern ports: 152 million tons, down 11 million tons; weekly inventory of starch enterprises: 104.9 million tons, down 0.5 million tons [2]. - Monthly import volume of corn: 36 million tons; monthly export volume of corn starch: 19170 tons, up 6390 tons [2]. - Monthly output of feed: 2957 million tons, down 171.7 million tons; processing profit of corn starch in Shandong: 6 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton [2]. Downstream Situation - Inventory days of sample feed corn: 29.53 days, up 0.86 days; processing profit of corn starch in Hebei: 82 yuan/ton [2]. - Deep - processing corn consumption: 141.67 million tons, down 0.09 million tons; processing profit of corn starch in Jilin: - 54 yuan/ton [2]. - Operating rate of alcohol enterprises: 68.22%, down 2.06 percentage points; operating rate of starch enterprises: 62.84%, up 1.18 percentage points [2]. Option Market - 20 - day historical volatility of corn: 11.92%, up 0.27 percentage points; 60 - day historical volatility of corn: 9.48%, up 0.09 percentage points [2]. - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn: 8.59%, down 7.1 percentage points; implied volatility of at - the - money put options for corn: 8.58%, down 7.11 percentage points [2]. Industry News - As of December 11, the sowing of the first - season corn in the central and southern regions of Brazil in the 2025/26 season has ended, and the focus is on weather and crop growth [2]. - In the week ending December 11, 2025, the US corn export inspection volume was 1,582,995 tons, compared with the revised 1,740,898 tons last week and 1,153,344 tons in the same period last year [2].

以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成投资建议。 从资金流向上来看，当日多元金融板块主力资金净流入2.14亿元，游资资金净流入1.14亿元，散户资金 净流出3.28亿元。多元金融板块个股资金流向见下表： 证券之星消息，12月16日多元金融板块较上一交易日上涨0.09%，瑞达期货领涨。当日上证指数报收于 3824.81，下跌1.11%。深证成指报收于12914.67，下跌1.51%。多元金融板块个股涨跌见下表： ...

行业方面，华联期货指出，今年的RKAB审批额度为冶炼厂提供了充足的原料保障，印尼MHP产能释放 压制价格，但印尼国内矿业政策改变扰动仍在；10月国内镍进口保持高位，10月印尼镍铁供应维持高 位；10月电解镍产量维持高位，11月份小幅回落。 需求方面，中财期货分析称，不锈钢疲软转为负反馈，三元材料12月排产小幅增加，四季度新能源汽车 补贴退坡冲量临近尾声，不锈钢维持刚需采购心态。 12月16日，国内期市有色金属板块跌多涨少。其中，沪镍期货盘面表现偏弱，截至发稿主力合约震荡下 跌2.62%，报111990.00元/吨。 宏观面，据瑞达期货（002961）介绍，美联储理事米兰再次呼吁加快降息，断言"潜在"通胀接近目标， 称任期或延长。美联储"三把手"：上周降息后，货币政策已为明年做好准备。今年票委柯林斯：上周支 持降息是艰难决定。 对于后市走势，中辉期货表示，海外印尼减产影响逐步减弱，国内外镍库存仍处于偏高水平，下游不锈 钢消费转入淡季，终端需求支撑不足，镍价短期延续偏弱走势。 ...

从资金流向上来看，当日多元金融板块主力资金净流出1.24亿元，游资资金净流出1644.43万元，散户资 金净流入1.4亿元。多元金融板块个股资金流向见下表： 以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成投资建议。 证券之星消息，12月15日多元金融板块较上一交易日下跌0.23%，瑞达期货领跌。当日上证指数报收于 3867.92，下跌0.55%。深证成指报收于13112.09，下跌1.1%。多元金融板块个股涨跌见下表： ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In December, the reserve demand for urea has slowed down, but there is still short - term restocking demand. The demand for urea from the compound fertilizer industry is relatively strong, and the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers is expected to increase steadily. Urea is being shipped to ports in batches, and some enterprises are finishing their shipments. The rigid demand from industrial compound fertilizers, appropriate restocking of reserve demand, and the fulfillment of some enterprises' export orders have pushed the urea factory inventory to continue to decline last week. In the short term, with high开工率 of industrial compound fertilizers and continuous demand, and the existence of some reserve gaps, the urea factory inventory may still show a slight downward trend. The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1670 - 1720 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1629 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 4 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread is - 52 yuan/ton, with a change of - 2547 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. The main contract's open interest is 97760 lots, a decrease of 20998 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 8216. The exchange warehouse receipts are 11245 sheets, a decrease of 51 sheets [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, the prices in Hebei, Henan, and Anhui remain unchanged at 1710 yuan/ton, 1690 yuan/ton, and 1680 yuan/ton respectively; the price in Shandong is 1700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the price in Jiangsu is 1690 yuan/ton, unchanged. The main contract basis is 71 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14 yuan/ton. The FOB price in the Baltic Sea is 347.5 dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 dollars/ton; the FOB price at the main Chinese port is 387.5 dollars/ton, a decrease of 4 dollars/ton [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - The port inventory is 12.3 million tons, an increase of 1.8 million tons compared to the previous week; the enterprise inventory is 123.42 million tons, a decrease of 5.63 million tons. The urea enterprise operating rate is 81.85%, an increase of 0.02%; the daily urea output is 197900 tons, unchanged. The urea export volume is 120 million tons, a decrease of 17 million tons; the monthly output is 6000330 tons, an increase of 129060 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 40.62%, an increase of 0.09%; the melamine operating rate is 61.86%, an increase of 0.2%. The weekly profit of compound fertilizers in China is 137 yuan/ton, an increase of 81 yuan/ton; the weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea is - 13 yuan/ton, an increase of 16 yuan/ton. The monthly output of compound fertilizers is 438.25 million tons, an increase of 75.38 million tons; the weekly output of melamine is 32200 tons, an increase of 100 tons [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of December 10, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 123.42 million tons, a decrease of 5.63 million tons compared to the previous week, a decrease of 4.36% [2]. - As of December 11, the sample inventory at Chinese urea ports is 12.3 million tons, an increase of 1.8 million tons compared to the previous week, an increase of 17.14%. Exports are being shipped to ports, and the shipping rhythm has slightly accelerated [2]. - As of December 11, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises is 138.54 million tons, an increase of 0.03 million tons compared to the previous period, an increase of 0.02%. Some previously - overhauled devices have resumed production, driving a slight increase in domestic urea output. It is expected that 2 enterprises' devices will stop production this week, and 1 stopped - production enterprise's device may resume production [2]. 3.6 Viewpoint Summary - The enterprise capacity utilization rate is 81.85%, an increase of 0.02%. There are short - term fluctuations in production. The demand from industrial compound fertilizers is strong, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to increase steadily. Urea is being shipped to ports, and some enterprises are finishing their shipments. The rigid demand from industrial compound fertilizers, appropriate restocking of reserve demand, and the fulfillment of some enterprises' export orders have pushed the urea factory inventory to continue to decline last week. In the short term, the urea factory inventory may still show a slight downward trend. The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1670 - 1720 in the short term [2]. 3.7 Suggested Attention - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate data from Longzhong on Thursday [2]