21世纪经济报道记者 孙永乐 上海报道 "2026年中国资产重估逻辑将继续演绎，内外资对权益市场的增配有望共振，国内居民权益类资产配置仍有广阔提升空间，A股 新高可期。"11月18日，东方财富证券研究所副所长、首席策略官陈果表示。 从产业周期视角看，陈果判断，成长及周期风格仍是2026年清晰可见的高胜率方向，分别对应AI产业浪潮、PPI同比回暖两条中 观线索。而消费板块未必悲观，需要等待"击球点"。 对应到3条中观胜率线索，陈果给出了值得关注的行业：①泛AI：半导体、海外算力、有色、电网设备、端侧AI等；②周期反 转：海风、储能、锂电设备、光伏、化工、油/煤等；③国际化：工程机械、创新药等。 AI是推动资本市场功能深化的核心力量 值得一提的是，在11月举办年度策略会的10余家券商中，东方财富证券是少有在主题中重点提及人工智能与AI浪潮的机构，并 邀请了多名行业大咖对相关话题进行深度解读。 陈果是在东方财富证券2026年度策略会上作出上述研判。本次会议以"智能浪潮•势起东方"为主题，东方财富证券研究所总量及 行业首席分析师团队悉数亮相，吸引了不少投资者关注。 2026年牛市继续已是一致预期 陈果指出，2025年 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 China Securities Industry Asset Management Summit highlighted the evolving landscape of the asset management industry, emphasizing the need for innovation and adaptation in response to market changes and new demands [2][3]. Group 1: Industry Trends - The asset management industry in China is experiencing a transformation with a more rational business structure and enhanced operational standards, leading to increased competitiveness [2]. - Three major trends are reshaping the securities asset management ecosystem: digital empowerment through AI and large model technologies, upgraded demand for innovative products like retirement and green investments, and a shift from traditional investment management to comprehensive solution providers [2][3]. Group 2: Challenges and Strategies - The asset management sector faces significant challenges, including asset scarcity, low interest rates, and high volatility, necessitating a transition from a single high-yield asset model to a multi-strategy approach [3]. - Firms must focus on brand cultivation and long-term development while enhancing active management capabilities and customer service to meet market demands effectively [3]. Group 3: Forum Highlights - The forum featured two roundtable discussions addressing opportunities and challenges in the post-public offering era and strategies for product layout in a low-interest-rate environment [4]. - The "2025 China Securities Industry Asset Management Jun Ding Award" was announced, recognizing outstanding contributions in the asset management field [4][6].

Group 1: Market Overview - On November 19, the main funds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets experienced a net outflow of 34.842 billion yuan, with the ChiNext board seeing a net outflow of 11.803 billion yuan [1] - Among the 10 primary industry sectors, the non-ferrous metals sector had the highest increase at 2.39%, while the comprehensive sector saw the largest decline at 3.08% [1] - Five sectors received net inflows from main funds, with the defense and military industry leading at 2.258 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Individual Stock Performance - The leading stock in terms of net inflow was the optical module company Xinyi Sheng, which saw a net inflow of 9.56 billion yuan [2][3] - The second highest net inflow was for the company Hailu Heavy Industry, amounting to 6.89 billion yuan [2][3] - Other notable stocks with significant net inflows included Ningde Times, Yaguang Technology, and C South Network, each exceeding 5 billion yuan [2][3] Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - The optical module industry is currently in a golden development period driven by AI computing power, with the focus shifting from demand to delivery capabilities [2] - The main challenges in the optical module production include capacity, yield, and certification, making delivery capability a key competitive factor [2] - The controlled nuclear fusion concept stock Hailu Heavy Industry saw a significant increase, indicating investor interest in emerging technologies [2] Group 4: Net Outflow Analysis - The media stock Liao Co. experienced the largest net outflow at 1.012 billion yuan, followed by Huasheng Tiancheng and BYD, each with outflows exceeding 500 million yuan [4][5] - A total of 130 stocks saw net outflows exceeding 1 billion yuan, with 15 stocks having outflows over 300 million yuan [5]

Core Insights - The conference held by Dongfang Caifu Securities focused on the theme "Intelligent Wave • Rise of the East," gathering top experts to discuss the impact of AI on global economic changes and new opportunities in the Chinese capital market [1][3]. Group 1: Economic and Strategic Insights - The general manager of Dongfang Caifu Securities emphasized that the 14th Five-Year Plan highlights the importance of industrial intelligence, green development, and the acceleration of new productive forces, marking a shift from traditional growth logic to innovation and efficiency [3]. - Professor Wu Xiaoqiu discussed the opportunities and challenges for China's economy and capital markets in the AI era, stating that AI's widespread application will determine China's new position in the global economy and that seizing AI development opportunities is crucial for future economic growth [5]. - By 2030, it is projected that China's per capita GDP will exceed $20,000, with a recovery in consumption rates and a securities rate surpassing 200%, positioning China as a leader in AI penetration globally [6]. Group 2: Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - The chief strategist of Dongfang Caifu Securities presented a report indicating that the logic of asset revaluation in China will continue into 2026, with both domestic and foreign investments expected to increase in the equity market, suggesting significant potential for domestic residents to enhance their equity asset allocation [8]. - The chief macro analyst forecasted that domestic macro policies will continue to support economic stability, with active fiscal policies and a loose monetary stance, contributing to gradual economic improvement [10]. - The chief scientist and AI director highlighted that AI will reshape industry ecosystems, creating a dynamic feedback loop that enhances user understanding and engagement, leading to a shift from standardized services to deeply customized long-term support in wealth management [12]. Group 3: Conference Structure and Participation - The conference spanned two days and included 11 sub-forums covering various sectors such as macroeconomics, technology, and consumer goods, with a focus on presenting investment strategies for 2026 [12]. - The event attracted over a thousand attendees on-site, with online viewership exceeding ten thousand across major streaming platforms [13].

Core Viewpoint - The coal industry is expected to enter a long-term upward cycle due to a solidified price floor and limited growth in new coal production capacity, despite a decrease in coal production and imports in 2025 [1][2][4]. Group 1: Coal Supply - In the first nine months of 2025, domestic coal production increased by 2% year-on-year, but there was a significant decline in production following the release of the National Energy Administration's document No. 108 in July, with production in July, August, and September showing year-on-year decreases of -3.8%, -3.2%, and -1.8% respectively [1]. - In Q3 2025, coal production in Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, and Xinjiang was 32.9 million tons, 30.9 million tons, 20.3 million tons, and 12.3 million tons respectively, with a quarter-on-quarter change of -1.6%, -0.3%, +0.1%, and -12.3% [1]. Group 2: Coal Imports - In the first nine months of 2025, coal imports totaled 34.6 million tons, a decrease of 11.1% year-on-year. Specifically, imports of Indonesian coal were 14.3 million tons, down by 2.525 million tons or 15% year-on-year [2]. - Imports of Mongolian coal reached 6.192 million tons, an increase of 130,000 tons or 2.1% year-on-year, but the proportion of imported coking coal decreased from 71.6% to 67.4% [2]. Group 3: Coal Demand - Short-term demand for coal is structurally weak due to a slowdown in electricity consumption growth and competition from renewable energy sources, with total thermal power generation in the first nine months of 2025 at 4,696.9 billion kWh, down 1.2% year-on-year [3]. - The steel sector shows resilience, with cumulative profits of key steel enterprises reaching 96 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.9 times [3]. - Chemical coal demand remains high but is slowing, with an average weekly coal consumption of 6.9 million tons in the first nine months of 2025, up 12.7% year-on-year [3]. - The building materials sector continues to be affected by real estate, with coal consumption of 18.6 million tons in the first nine months of 2025, down 4.6% year-on-year, but the decline is less severe than the 9.1% drop in the same period of 2024 [3]. Group 4: Industry Policy and Outlook - The "anti-involution" policy in the coal industry aims to control production release through capacity utilization rates, balancing supply and demand to support coal prices, with ongoing supply constraints expected [4]. - The central government's focus on regulating disorderly competition and promoting capacity governance is seen as crucial for the industry's recovery [4]. Group 5: Investment Recommendations - Companies to watch include China Shenhua (601088.SH), Shaanxi Coal (601225.SH), and China Coal Energy (601898.SH) for their long-term benefits from a solidified coal price floor [5]. - In the context of rising coal prices, companies like Yanzhou Coal (600188.SH), Jinkong Coal (601001.SH), and Shanxi Coal International (600546.SH) are recommended for their valuation recovery potential [5]. - Coking coal companies such as Lu'an Environmental Energy (601699.SH) and Pingmei Shenma (601666.SH) are expected to benefit from the steel industry's "anti-involution" [6].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Dongfang Caifu Securities indicates that the supply-demand mismatch in 2024 will lead to deteriorating industry operations, but as companies gradually lower growth targets to adapt to demand in 2025, this will alleviate supply-demand conflicts and enhance investment value in the sector. The expectation is for positive growth in financial statements by the second or third quarter of next year [1]. Group 1: Industry Overview - In Q1-Q3 2025, under weak demand, industry revenue showed slight growth while profits were under pressure, with the food and beverage sector experiencing a revenue decline of -4.9% and a net profit drop of -14.6% in Q3 2025 [1]. - Traditional consumption is hindered by slow recovery in consumption scenarios, with the liquor sector, particularly baijiu, facing accelerated clearance and weak performance in beer demand [1]. - Sectors like snacks and beverages that have opportunities for new product launches and channel expansion continue to show positive momentum, with products like konjac experiencing rapid growth since 2024 [1]. Group 2: Category Analysis and Outlook - **Baijiu**: The industry is accelerating clearance with clearer turning points. In Q3 2025, overall revenue and net profit declined by -18.4% and -22.2% respectively, but demand is expected to improve, stabilizing prices and leading to better financial performance by Q2 2026 [2]. - **Low-Alcohol Beverages and Beer**: Beer revenue and net profit grew by +2.0% and +11.8% respectively in Q3 2025, with cost advantages continuing. Demand recovery is anticipated in 2026, influenced by changes in retail channels [3]. - **Dairy Products**: The raw milk sector is gradually bottoming out, with demand expected to stabilize and prices recover. The low-temperature fresh milk segment is projected to grow, replacing some ambient milk [4]. - **Snacks**: Categories like konjac and oats are expected to maintain high growth, with a shift towards emerging channels and significant growth in instant retail [4]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - **Baijiu**: Focus on companies that are clearing inventory early and have strong brand momentum, such as Gujing Gongjiu and Luzhou Laojiao, as well as those with strong product matrices and channel capabilities like Moutai and Wuliangye [5]. - **Low-Alcohol Beverages**: Highlighting head companies like Kweichow Moutai and Qingdao Beer, which are expected to benefit from demand recovery [5]. - **Dairy and Snacks**: Emphasizing the potential for recovery in the raw milk sector and recommending companies like Yili and Mengniu, as well as snack companies that can leverage product and channel adjustments [6].

Group 1 - The ChiNext Index opened lower but gained strength throughout the day, with the ChiNext 50 ETF (159682) rising nearly 1.5% at one point and achieving a trading volume exceeding 170 million yuan [1] - The ETF has seen a net inflow of over 120 million yuan over the past three days, indicating strong investor interest [1] - Key stocks within the ETF include Ningde Times, Dongfang Wealth, and Zhongji Xuchuang, among others, highlighting a diverse sector allocation including manufacturing and technology services [1] Group 2 - Zhongtai Securities indicates that the technology growth sector remains a mid-term focus due to declining interest rates and supportive policies for "technological innovation" and "new productivity" [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the significant investment by Anthropic, which plans to spend $30 billion to expand its Claude AI model on Microsoft's Azure cloud platform, supported by NVIDIA's computing power [1] - The ChiNext 50 Index (399673) has shown a strong increase of 1.43%, with notable gains from constituent stocks such as Zhongji Xuchuang (300308) up 5.54%, Nanda Optoelectronics (300346) up 4.00%, and Xinyi Technology (300502) up 3.38% [1] - Guoyuan Securities notes that domestic model companies have shifted from relying on massive computing resources for model performance enhancement to algorithmic innovations like model sparsification, indicating a transition in the industry [1] Group 2 - As of October 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the ChiNext 50 Index (399673) include CATL (300750), Zhongji Xuchuang (300308), and Dongfang Fortune (300059), collectively accounting for 70.15% of the index [2] - The ChiNext 50 ETF (159681) closely tracks the ChiNext 50 Index, which consists of the 50 stocks with the highest average daily trading volume in the ChiNext market, reflecting the overall performance of well-known, large-cap, and liquid companies [1][2]

Core Insights - The core viewpoint of the news is the transformation and strategic direction of Dongfang Caifu Securities under the leadership of Meng Jie, focusing on deep research and adapting to industry changes driven by public fund fee reforms and market dynamics. Group 1: Strategic Transformation - Meng Jie emphasizes the shift from individual success to team success in management, aiming to create an environment where collective talent can shine [2] - The "2.0 launch" strategy has been implemented to adapt to the new normal centered on "investor returns," moving away from the previous focus on scale [2] - The research institute aims to enhance its deep research capabilities, focusing on long-term assessments and cross-industry validations [2] Group 2: Market Outlook - The A-share market is expected to maintain a slow bull trend, supported by policies, capital inflows, and technological advancements [4] - Positive fiscal and monetary policies are driving corporate profit improvements and consumer recovery, while institutional funds are increasingly entering the market [4] - The global AI industry wave, particularly China's breakthroughs in technology, is providing strong momentum for the tech sector [4] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The "15th Five-Year Plan" suggests three main investment directions: emerging industries, disruptive upgrades of traditional industries, and dual-driven growth from technology and domestic demand [6] - Emerging fields like quantum technology and commercial aerospace are expected to reach critical points for commercialization in the next five to ten years [6] - Traditional industries are undergoing significant transformations towards high-end, intelligent, and green developments, creating multi-trillion market opportunities [6] Group 4: Consumer Trends - Traditional core assets, particularly in consumption, are showing increasing value after long adjustments, with a focus on enhancing consumer spending [7] - The recovery of traditional consumption is expected to be gradual and structurally driven, influenced by disposable income and wealth improvements [7] - New consumption sectors, such as trendy products and beauty, are demonstrating stronger growth resilience due to emotional and experiential value [7] Group 5: Industry Revaluation - The construction and building materials sectors are shifting from investment-driven cycles to growth logic centered on technology, sustainability, and globalization [7][8] - Key conditions for revaluation include the conversion of technological barriers into revenue, substantial improvements in profitability through smart and green transformations, and successful overseas expansion [8]

2024年8月，孟杰履新东方财富证券研究所所长。彼时，A股市场尚处"9·24"行情启动前的沉寂期，同时 公募基金费率改革刚刚落地，卖方研究业务面临着佣金压降的严峻挑战。从顶尖分析师转型研究所管理 者，这一年多以来有着怎样的成长与收获，未来又有什么目标和策略？在专访中，孟杰与证券时报记者 一一分享。 致力打造新一代研究机构 "这一年的转型让我深刻体会到，管理者的核心任务不再是成为最亮的星，而是去打造一片能让群星闪 耀的天空。这是一条从专业走向管理、从个人成功走向团队成功的修行之路。"孟杰如是说。 2024年8月，孟杰加入东方财富证券研究所后，迅速推动东财研究"2.0启航"战略落地。在他看来，公募 费率改革正推动行业进入以"投资者回报"为核心的新常态，彻底颠覆了过去"重规模、轻回报"的业务逻 辑。改革部署通过了建立健全基金公司收入报酬与投资者回报绑定、强化长周期考核等机制，驱动着证 券研究的商业模式从"卖方研究"向"买方投顾"转型。 孟杰认为，在此过程中，深度研究的价值进一步凸显，市场对卖方研究的需求正从提供观点转向提供深 度策略支持，这为聚焦深度研究的研究所带来了发展机遇。 面对行业变革，东方财富证券研究所确立 ...