Core Viewpoint - The A-share market continues to rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 1.5%, reaching a nearly 10-year high, marking a 13-day consecutive gain [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Battery 50 ETF (159796) rose over 1%, with a trading volume of nearly 400 million yuan, achieving two consecutive days of gains [1]. - The top ten component stocks of the Battery 50 ETF show mixed performance, with significant gains from companies like XianDai Intelligent (+2.84%) and GreenMei (+2.49%), while others like Ningde Times (-0.93%) experienced declines [5]. Group 2: Lithium Carbonate Market Dynamics - Lithium carbonate futures surged by 7% yesterday and hit the daily limit today, driven by a shift in supply-demand dynamics towards a tighter balance [4]. - According to Huatai Securities, the oversupply of lithium carbonate is expected to improve significantly by the first half of 2025, with a projected cumulative oversupply of 50,200 tons in 2024, narrowing to 7,955 tons by Q2 2025, and turning into a shortage in Q3 and Q4 with gaps of 15,200 tons and 20,000 tons respectively [7]. Group 3: Demand Growth in Energy Storage - The demand for energy storage is expected to grow significantly, driven by high growth in power batteries and energy storage applications, particularly in AI data centers and renewable energy storage [8]. - Dongwu Securities forecasts a two-year sustained growth cycle for energy storage, with domestic bidding for energy storage expected to reach 190 GWh in 2025, a 138% increase, and cumulative installations projected to exceed 163 GWh, a 47% year-on-year increase [9]. Group 4: Global Energy Storage Trends - In the U.S., the demand for energy storage is expected to rise due to the rapid growth of AI data centers, with projected installations of approximately 53 GWh in 2025 and 80 GWh in 2026, reflecting a 51% year-on-year increase [10]. - European markets are also experiencing growth, with expected installations of 20 GWh in 2025 and 42 GWh in 2026, driven by supportive capacity pricing policies [10]. Group 5: Battery Industry Outlook - The lithium battery materials sector is witnessing positive changes, with energy storage demand exceeding expectations, leading to a recovery in industry sentiment [11]. - The electrolyte supply chain is expected to see an upward trend, supported by energy storage demand and rising lithium carbonate costs, with a projected tight balance in 2026 [11]. Group 6: Investment Strategy in Battery Sector - The Battery 50 ETF (159796) is highlighted for its significant exposure to energy storage (27%) and solid-state battery technology (42%), making it a favorable investment choice amid the expected demand surge [13][15]. - The ETF's management fee is notably low at 0.15% per year, enhancing its attractiveness for investors looking to capitalize on the battery sector's growth [15].

Industry Information - CATL plans to apply sodium batteries on a large scale in fields such as battery swapping, passenger cars, commercial vehicles, and energy storage by 2026, indicating a new trend of "sodium-lithium dual star shining" [9] - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that profits in the equipment manufacturing industry increased by 7.7% year-on-year from January to November 2025, significantly contributing to overall industrial profit growth [9] - Gansu's 14th Five-Year Plan emphasizes the cultivation of new consumption types, including digital, green, and intelligent consumption, to stimulate economic growth [10] - NIO's battery swapping network has expanded significantly, with over 1,000 new battery swapping stations established within a year [12] - The Chinese automotive market is seeing a surge in electric vehicle sales, with a market share of 79.2% for pure electric models in Israel, led by the Chery Jetour 7 [16][17] Policy Information - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has initiated a carbon footprint declaration for automotive power batteries, aiming to establish a management system by the end of 2026 [26] - The 2026 "old-for-new" vehicle subsidy policy will adjust to a percentage of the vehicle price, with a maximum subsidy of 20,000 yuan for new energy vehicles [26][27] - The State Council's guidelines promote high-quality development of the power grid, supporting the construction of charging infrastructure and optimizing the connection process for charging facilities [39] - The implementation of the "Beautiful China Pilot Zone" action plan aims to establish a multi-modal green transportation system and enhance the charging infrastructure for electric vehicles [23] - The Guangdong Shenzhen District has issued management measures for new energy vehicle charging and swapping facilities, mandating a minimum installation ratio for charging facilities in new buildings [32][33]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the sodium-ion battery industry [9] Core Insights - The sodium-ion battery technology has regained attention due to fluctuations in lithium prices and strategic moves by leading manufacturers, transitioning from a "technology reserve" to "scale commercialization" [5][17] - The sodium-ion battery benefits from low cost, abundant resources, and compatibility with industrialization factors, making it a promising new technology route [6][39] - The industry consensus has shifted from viewing sodium-ion batteries as substitutes for lithium-ion batteries to recognizing them as important complements [8] Summary by Sections Cost Drivers - Current cost estimates for sodium-ion battery materials are as follows: copper-iron-manganese system at 296.6 CNY/kWh, nickel-iron-manganese system at 398.1 CNY/kWh, and sodium iron phosphate system at 379.3 CNY/kWh, which are near the cost balance point of lithium iron phosphate [6][40] - The economic viability of sodium-ion batteries is enhanced by not using high-cost metals like lithium carbonate and copper, with estimated economic balance points depending on copper prices [41] Scene Expansion - Sodium-ion batteries are entering a phase of deep industrialization, expanding from niche applications to widespread market penetration, particularly in low-temperature and high-power scenarios [7][45] - They are positioned as cost-effective alternatives in applications where energy density is less critical, such as battery swapping and low-speed electric vehicles [7][45] - The technology is expected to play a significant role in the electric two-wheeler market and energy storage systems due to its cost advantages and resource endowment [7][45] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the material segments of the sodium-ion battery supply chain, such as sodium-ion cathodes and aluminum foils, which are expected to see incremental expansion [8]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has set a target price of 180 RMB for Suyuan Electric (002028) and 650 HKD for CATL (300750.HK), with a target price of 520 RMB for CATL A-shares (300750.SZ), all rated as "Overweight" [1] Group 1: Suyuan Electric - Suyuan Electric and CATL have signed a three-year memorandum of understanding for energy storage cooperation, targeting a collaboration of 50 GWh [1] - This partnership indicates Suyuan Electric's intention to expand its energy storage system business, potentially generating approximately 20 billion RMB in annual revenue if capacity is fully realized [1] - Although Suyuan Electric's current energy storage business is relatively small, its market share is continuously increasing [1] Group 2: Market Relationships - The company's relationships with grid operators and renewable energy operators facilitate cross-selling of power equipment and energy storage solutions [1] - Suyuan Electric's foundation in super-capacitors will aid in the development of differentiated energy storage products [1] Group 3: CATL - For CATL, while the scale of this contract is not particularly significant compared to its overall business volume, the collaboration with Suyuan Electric is expected to further solidify CATL's position in the energy storage market [1]

花旗表示，在供应受限及长期需求前景下，目前对铝和铜价格持续看涨，又指目前中国各行业"反内 卷"政策执行进展不一，导致钢铁及水泥价格与利润率低于预期，对材料板块偏好依次为铝、铜、电 池、黄金、电池材料、煤炭、水泥及钢铁。 花旗发表研究报告指，金属及电池产业链股份去年表现强劲，根据目前评估，相信电池价格上升周期将 在今年持续，虽然中国电动车行业需求较弱，但市场对储能系统需求的预期已显著上调，部分潜在利好 因素至少已阶段性反映在相关股份的股价表现当中。 该行认为，在产业链各环节及锂板块经历上涨后，宁德时代仍提供最佳的风险回报，预计农历新年后行 业需求重启时，看法将更趋正面，但目前对锂价短期升势仍抱审慎看法。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Fujian Province is enhancing the resilience and safety of its industrial chain through quality improvement, focusing on key technologies and supply systems, and promoting high-quality development in the lithium battery and footwear industries [1] Group 1: Lithium Battery Industry Development - Fujian has become a strategic hub for the lithium battery industry, leading in China's lithium battery exports with a projected export value of 118.47 billion yuan by November 2025 [4] - CATL (Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited) has maintained the world's largest power battery shipment for eight consecutive years, with energy storage battery shipments leading globally for three years [4] - The province's lithium battery industry is expected to reach a production value of 250.8 billion yuan by 2024, establishing Ningde as the largest polymer lithium-ion battery production base globally [5] Group 2: Quality Improvement Mechanisms - A coordination mechanism led by local governments has been established to enhance the quality of the lithium battery supply chain, integrating policies across provincial, municipal, and county levels [5] - The industry has adopted a "core aggregation, all-region linkage" spatial layout, expanding from Ningde to coastal and mountainous areas, promoting a tiered development model [5] Group 3: Innovation and R&D - CATL has been designated as the chain leader, driving collaborative upgrades across the supply chain, with over 80 billion yuan invested in R&D [6] - The company has achieved significant improvements, including a 42% reduction in production costs and a 50% increase in production speed, while enhancing product quality [6] Group 4: Regulatory and Standardization Efforts - Fujian has established a provincial standardization technical committee for power batteries, contributing to the formulation of 18 national standards and 26 industry standards [8] - The province has also set up a national-level intellectual property protection center focused on the new energy sector, significantly reducing the patent authorization cycle [8] Group 5: Brand and Market Expansion - The "Electric Fujian" brand strategy has been implemented, with CATL receiving a nomination for the China Quality Award, enhancing the industry's reputation [8] - Fujian is collaborating with other provinces to create a cross-regional quality improvement project for the lithium battery industry, aiming to build a comprehensive industrial "golden belt" [9] Group 6: Regional Collaboration and Economic Growth - The "mountain-sea cooperation" model in Fujian promotes efficient resource and capacity flow, with significant growth in related industries, such as a 35% annual increase in output value from the graphite material base [9] - Fujian is positioning itself as a global innovation hub for the new energy industry, focusing on quality, safety, and collaboration [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global lithium resource supply is growing rapidly, and it is expected to reach 2.09 million tons of LCE in 2026, a year - on - year increase of about 24.4%. The supply - demand relationship in the lithium carbonate market is evolving from "oversupply" to "tight balance" and even "structural shortage." [1][3] - The demand for energy storage is expected to grow explosively, with the global energy - storage shipment and installation volume expected to increase by 51% and 60% year - on - year to 930GWh and 480GWh respectively in 2026. The demand for new energy vehicles will grow steadily, with the global sales volume expected to reach 24.45 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 12%. [2] - The cost influence in the trading logic of lithium carbonate has significantly decreased, and the price is more sensitive to upward drivers. The average price of lithium carbonate in 2026 is expected to rise further. [3] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 2025 Market Review - **Market Price Review**: In 2025, the price of lithium carbonate showed a "V - shaped" rebound, with a continuous decline in the first half of the year and a strong rebound in the second half. The core driver shifted from "oversupply" to "supply - demand mismatch" caused by unexpected energy - storage demand and supply disturbances. [6] - **Fundamental Logic Review**: The "supply - demand mismatch" caused by supply disturbances and the explosion of energy - storage demand led the market to shift from oversupply to balance reversal. The influence of cost logic on prices decreased significantly. [8][13] 3.2 Supply Maintaining Rapid Growth (+24%) - **Lithium Resource Supply Continuously Increasing, Project Release Accelerating Due to Profit Recovery**: The global lithium resource planned production capacity has been accelerating for several years. Although there were disturbances in 2025, the global supply is expected to increase by 24% to 1.61 million tons of LCE. In 2026, it is expected to reach 2.09 million tons of LCE, a year - on - year increase of about 24.4%. [19][21] - **Significant Disturbances from Domestic Mines and Anti - involution Policies, Continuous High - growth in Lithium Carbonate Production**: In 2025, China's lithium ore reserves increased significantly. The domestic lithium carbonate smelting production capacity is expected to increase by 38.86% to 1.347 million tons of LCE in 2026. [24] 3.3 Lithium - battery Industry Chain Amplifying Demand Growth Rate - **Significant Growth in Cathode Material Production, Lithium Iron Phosphate Dominating**: In 2025, the production of cathode materials and electrolytes increased significantly. Lithium iron phosphate accounted for more than 80% of the market share, mainly due to the high growth of new energy vehicles and the explosive growth of energy - storage demand. [50] - **Strong Growth in the Lithium - battery Industry, China Dominating Globally**: In the first three quarters of 2025, the global power - battery installation volume increased by 35.5% year - on - year. Chinese battery companies occupied a dominant position globally. China is the world's largest producer and consumer of lithium batteries, with healthy supply - demand relationships and strong export performance. [58][66][67] 3.4 Energy - storage Demand Prospects for Explosive Growth (+51%) - **High - speed Growth in Energy - storage Battery Shipment in 2025**: In 2025, the global energy - storage battery shipment is expected to increase by 65% year - on - year to 610GWh. In 2026, the energy - storage cell shipment is expected to increase by 51% year - on - year to 930GW. [85] - **Energy - storage Entering a Definite High - growth Period**: Driven by policies and market mechanisms, the Chinese energy - storage market is in a high - growth period. Overseas energy - storage orders are also increasing significantly. It is expected that the global energy - storage installation volume will reach 480GWh in 2026, a year - on - year increase of 60%. [92][97][100] 3.5 New Energy Vehicle Demand Growing Steadily (+18%) - **New Energy Vehicle High - growth Reaching an Inflection Point**: In 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China increased significantly. Globally, the sales volume of new energy vehicles is expected to reach 21.65 million, a year - on - year increase of 22%. In 2026, the global sales volume is expected to reach 24.45 million, a year - on - year increase of 12%. [106][109][116] - **High Terminal Demand for Lithium Carbonate**: In 2025, the single - vehicle power consumption of new energy vehicles in China increased significantly, and the demand for lithium carbonate increased by 31.74% year - on - year. In 2026, there will still be a 17.56% year - on - year increase. The current industrial chain inventory is healthy, and the replenishment of the industrial chain will amplify the demand. [120][121] 3.6 Balance and Price Outlook - **Balance**: In 2026, the global lithium resource supply is expected to have a surplus of nearly 80,000 tons, with a surplus rate of 3.9%, and the surplus volume is expected to narrow compared to 2025. In China, there is expected to be a shortage of 55,000 tons of lithium carbonate. [131][133] - **Price**: The cost influence on the lithium carbonate price has decreased significantly. The price is more sensitive to upward drivers and is likely to surge during supply disturbances, industrial chain replenishment, and supply - demand seasonal mismatches. The average price of lithium carbonate in 2026 is expected to rise further. [134]

证券研究报告|行业深度报告 电力设备与新能源 行业评级 强于大市（维持） 2026年1月6日 电池变革重要赛点，材料设备全新颠覆 ——固态电池深度研究报告 证券分析师： 邓伟 执业证书编号：S0210522050005 游宝来 执业证书编号：S0210523030002 研究助理： 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 李宜琛 华福证券 华福证券 投资要点 2 华福证券 华福证券 Ø 发展固态电池已成为行业共识、全球竞争赛点：理论上能实现高比能、高安全性的固态电池体系，是全球公认的颠覆性 技术。减少液态电解质含量，提升固态电解质占比，逐步实现固态化，是行业发展共识。由此带来的对材料体系、装备 体系的颠覆，迫使全球企业、研究团队展开新一轮的创新竞争，避免在新技术方向上的掉队风险。2027年实现小批量生 产、工艺定型，基本上是国内外企业一致预期的重要时间节点。 Ø 材料端：固态电池颠覆材料环节，重视增量、升级、瓶颈环节。全固态电池颠覆现有体系，核心增量环节是硫化物/氧化 物/卤化物/聚合物固态电解质，其中降本、量产瓶颈在于硫化锂（成本高、工艺放大难）。此外，能量密度的提升依赖 高镍/富锂锰基正极、锂金属/硅碳负极的性能突 ...

主力资金早间净流入非银金融、有色金属、电子、基础化工等板块，净流出通信、美容护理等板块。 具体到个股来看，东方财富、山子高科、利欧股份获净流入24.19亿元、18.96亿元、17.46亿元。 净流出方面，中际旭创、宁德时代、航天发展遭抛售19.01亿元、11.94亿元、8.46亿元。 (本文来自第一财经) ...

Core Viewpoint - The collaboration between Siyuan Electric and CATL aims to enhance Siyuan's energy storage system business, targeting a cooperation volume of 50 GWh, which could generate approximately 20 billion yuan in annual revenue if fully realized [1] Group 1: Siyuan Electric - Siyuan Electric has signed a three-year memorandum of understanding for energy storage cooperation with CATL [1] - The company is looking to expand its energy storage system business, with its current market share steadily increasing [1] - Siyuan Electric's relationships with grid and renewable energy operators facilitate cross-selling of power equipment and energy storage solutions [1] Group 2: CATL - For CATL, the scale of this contract is not particularly significant compared to its overall business volume [1] - The partnership with Siyuan Electric is expected to further solidify CATL's position in the energy storage market [1] Group 3: Financial Projections - Morgan Stanley has set a target price of 180 yuan for Siyuan Electric and 650 HKD for CATL's H-shares, as well as 520 yuan for its A-shares, all with a "buy" rating [1]