Group 1: Overview of Cobalt Tetroxide - Cobalt Tetroxide, with the chemical formula Co3O4, is a mixed valence compound containing both divalent and trivalent cobalt, with a theoretical cobalt content of 73.43% and oxygen content of 26.57% [1][2] - It is a crucial raw material for producing lithium cobalt oxide, which is the most commercially viable lithium-ion battery cathode material and has been widely used in high-end consumer electronics due to its high volumetric energy density and excellent packing density [1][2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - In 2024, China's apparent demand for Cobalt Tetroxide is projected to reach 91,000 tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 24% [1][13] - The production of Cobalt Tetroxide in China is expected to be 94,000 tons in 2024, with a growth rate exceeding 20% compared to the previous year [1][10] - The main production regions for Cobalt Tetroxide in China include Hunan, Zhejiang, Fujian, and Hebei, accounting for 82% of total production [1][12] Group 3: Supply and Demand - The supply of Cobalt Tetroxide is expected to increase significantly in 2024, driven by stable demand from major manufacturers and a recovery in the consumer electronics market [1][10] - The first quarter of 2024 saw increased orders for Cobalt Tetroxide due to low inventory levels and pre-holiday stocking, leading to a notable rise in production [1][10] - The demand for Cobalt Tetroxide is closely linked to the performance of lithium cobalt oxide manufacturers, with a notable increase in demand observed in the third quarter of 2024 [1][10] Group 4: Trade and Export - In 2024, China's Cobalt Tetroxide exports are expected to reach 3,509.5 tons, marking a year-on-year increase of 15.1%, while the export value is projected to be $6,385.4 million, down 17.9% [1][16] - South Korea is the largest destination for China's Cobalt Tetroxide exports, accounting for 61.4% of total exports, followed by Spain and Belgium [1][17] Group 5: Industry Structure - The domestic market for Cobalt Tetroxide is characterized by high concentration, with major players including Zhongwei Co., Huayou Cobalt, and Greeenme, which together hold over 50% of the market share [1][20] - Zhongwei Co. is recognized as the largest supplier of Cobalt Tetroxide globally [1][20] Group 6: Cobalt Tetroxide Applications - Cobalt Tetroxide is primarily used to produce lithium cobalt oxide, which is a key component in lithium-ion batteries, and its quality significantly impacts the performance and cost of the final product [1][28] - The production of lithium-ion batteries in China is expected to continue its growth trend, with total production reaching 1,170 GWh in 2024, a 24% increase year-on-year [1][30]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4][106]. Core Views - The report highlights that copper prices are experiencing fluctuations due to the interplay of the 232 investigation and interest rate cut expectations, with recent price changes showing a mixed trend [5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of low inventory levels in supporting copper prices, while also noting the potential impact of the 232 copper import investigation and upcoming interest rate decisions by the Federal Reserve [5]. - The report suggests monitoring companies such as Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Jincheng Mining, and Western Mining for investment opportunities [5]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The report provides insights into macroeconomic indicators, including U.S. employment data, which may influence market conditions [9]. - The non-ferrous metals sector's performance is analyzed, with the sector underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [11]. 2. Industrial Metals 2.1 Copper - Recent price movements show LME copper up by 0.25%, while SHFE copper is down by 0.24% [25]. - Inventory levels for copper have increased, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [25]. 2.2 Aluminum - LME aluminum prices increased by 0.41%, with inventory levels also rising [35]. - The report notes a decrease in aluminum smelting profits, attributed to rising costs [35]. 2.3 Lead and Zinc - Lead prices have seen a slight increase, while zinc prices have decreased [48]. - Inventory levels for both metals are discussed, highlighting market supply conditions [48]. 2.4 Tin and Nickel - Tin prices have decreased slightly, while nickel prices have shown an upward trend [62]. - The report discusses profitability metrics for nickel producers in both domestic and international markets [62]. 3. Energy Metals 3.1 Lithium - Lithium prices have shown a slight rebound, with specific price changes noted for lithium carbonate and lithium spodumene [74]. - The report indicates that supply-side adjustments are anticipated, which may affect future pricing [74]. 3.2 Cobalt - Cobalt prices have increased domestically due to export bans from the Democratic Republic of Congo, which may create supply constraints [86]. - The report highlights the profitability of domestic cobalt refining operations [86].

Group 1 - The non-ferrous metal sector continues to weaken, with significant declines in stock prices [1] - Precision Instrument Co., Ltd. (002295) hit the daily limit down [1] - Northern Copper Industry (000737) fell over 7% [1] Group 2 - Guangsheng Nonferrous Metals (600259) and Feinan Resources (301500) both dropped over 5% [1] - Tengyuan Cobalt Industry (301219) and Tibet Mining (000762) also experienced declines [1]

Group 1 - The non-ferrous metal sector experienced a decline at the beginning of trading, with significant drops in stock prices [1] - Jingyi Co., Ltd. (002295) fell over 7%, indicating a notable downturn in its market performance [1] - Other companies such as Northern Copper Industry (000737) and Feinan Resources (301500) also saw declines exceeding 5% [1] Group 2 - Tengyuan Cobalt Industry (301219), Huayu Mining (601020), and Huaxi Nonferrous Metals (600301) all faced downward pressure in their stock prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - The extension of the cobalt export ban by the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is expected to impact cobalt prices positively, as it aims to address the oversupply in the market and may lead to a supply shortage, thus increasing prices [1][2][4]. Cobalt Market Dynamics - Cobalt is a critical metal for energy transition, widely used in battery manufacturing and alloys, with DRC being the main global supplier [2]. - Prior to the export ban, cobalt prices had dropped significantly, with a reported price of $11.26 per pound in 2024, down 25.48% year-on-year [2]. - Following the initial export ban in February, cobalt prices peaked at 250,000 yuan/ton but later fell to 230,000 yuan/ton due to high historical inventory levels and unclear future policies [2]. Price Movements - After the announcement of the extended export ban, cobalt prices showed a notable increase, with "Longjiang 1 cobalt" rising by 22,000 yuan/ton, reaching a price range of 244,000 to 268,000 yuan/ton [3]. Impact on Companies - Companies primarily dealing with cobalt, such as Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co., Ltd., Nanjing Hanrui Cobalt Co., Ltd., and Ganzhou Tengyuan Cobalt Industry New Materials Co., Ltd., saw their stock prices rise significantly following the ban announcement [4]. - The DRC's export ban is expected to exacerbate raw material shortages in major consuming countries like China, with potential supply reductions exceeding 100,000 metal tons [4][5]. Company Responses - Companies like Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. reported a significant increase in cobalt production and sales for 2024, with production up 105.61% to 114,200 tons and sales up 266.23% to 108,900 tons [6]. - Luoyang Molybdenum operates two major mines in DRC, benefiting directly from the price rebound due to the export ban [7]. - Tengyuan Cobalt Industry indicated that they have sufficient safety stock to mitigate the impact of the export ban on their operations, and they maintain good relationships with suppliers to ensure raw material availability [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Tengyuan Cobalt Industry has sufficient safety stock to mitigate the impact of the extended cobalt export ban in the Democratic Republic of Congo, ensuring normal production operations in the short term [1] - The company indicated that it can purchase a certain amount of cobalt raw materials through traders, suggesting that the pressure on raw materials is not particularly significant [1] - Secondary resources are an important part of the company's strategic development, and it has established good and close channel cooperation to secure a certain share as a supplement [1] Group 2 - The company will closely monitor the developments of the situation and prepare accordingly [1]

Core Viewpoint - Cobalt prices are experiencing significant volatility, with a recent drop of 6,000 yuan to 250,000 yuan per ton, influenced by extended export bans from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and high inventory pressures [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The DRC, which accounts for 76% of global cobalt production, has extended its export ban, leading to short-term supply constraints and price fluctuations in the cobalt market [3][4]. - The global cobalt market is expected to shift from a surplus of 50,000 tons in 2025 to a shortage of 78,000 tons due to the DRC's export restrictions [4]. - Cobalt is primarily a byproduct of copper mining, and the DRC's policies may prompt a reevaluation of its business environment, potentially increasing Indonesia's market share [3][4]. Group 2: Production and Supply Chain - According to USGS data, global cobalt production is projected to reach 290,000 tons in 2024, with the DRC producing 220,000 tons, a 25% increase year-on-year [4]. - Chinese imports of cobalt intermediate products from the DRC have slightly decreased, but supply risks are anticipated to rise in the latter half of the year due to the DRC's export limitations [6]. - The current price of cobalt has reached the cost line for domestic cobalt salt manufacturers, and a drop below 240,000 yuan per ton could trigger production cuts among high-cost mining companies [6][7]. Group 3: Industry Performance - The profitability within the cobalt supply chain is showing divergence, with upstream producers holding back on sales while downstream sectors remain cautious [5][7]. - Battery manufacturers are increasingly reluctant to absorb rising costs, leading to stable prices in the lithium cobalt oxide market despite stronger cost support [7]. - Companies like Huaneng Cobalt and Tianyuan Cobalt have reported fluctuating profits, with Huaneng Cobalt's net profit in Q1 2025 increasing by 194% year-on-year, while Tianyuan Cobalt's profit has shown a decline in previous years [7][8].

Group 1 - The extension of the cobalt export ban in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has led to significant price volatility, with cobalt prices experiencing a sharp drop of 6,000 yuan to 250,000 yuan per ton on June 24 [1][2] - The DRC's export ban, initially imposed for four months on February 24, has now been extended to seven months, causing a consensus in the industry that this will only result in temporary supply constraints [1][2] - The DRC accounts for 76% of global cobalt production, with a projected output of 220,000 tons in 2024, reflecting a 25% year-on-year increase [2][3] Group 2 - The market is currently experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with high inventory levels leading to price corrections, as cobalt prices fell to 230,000 yuan per ton due to domestic producers offloading stock [2][4] - The extension of the export ban is expected to create upward pressure on cobalt prices, potentially leading to a supply shortage in the cobalt industry, with predictions of a shift from a surplus of 50,000 tons to a shortage of 78,000 tons by 2025 [3][4] - The upstream sector is showing reluctance to sell, while the downstream sector remains cautious, with cobalt hydroxide imports from the DRC only slightly declining by 6.8% [4][5] Group 3 - The lithium cobalt oxide market is currently stable, with companies adopting a "just-in-time" purchasing strategy due to insufficient demand, despite rising costs [6] - The shift towards lithium iron phosphate batteries is accelerating, with projections indicating that they will account for 72% of installed capacity by 2024, which may limit cobalt demand growth [6] - Companies like Huanray Cobalt and Huayou Cobalt have shown mixed financial performance, with Huanray Cobalt's net profit declining significantly in recent years, while Huayou Cobalt reported a substantial increase in net profit in early 2025 [6]

Core Viewpoint - The temporary ban on cobalt exports from the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has been extended for an additional three months, now lasting a total of seven months, in response to an oversupply in the global cobalt market [1][7]. Industry Impact - The extension of the cobalt export ban has led to a rise in the energy metals sector, with companies like Tengyuan Cobalt (301219.SZ) seeing a stock price increase of 15.42%, and other firms such as Hanrui Cobalt (300618.SZ) and Huayou Cobalt (603799.SH) also experiencing significant gains [1]. - Cobalt prices have increased, with the average price of electrolytic cobalt reported at 244,000 yuan/ton, up by 8,500 yuan from the previous working day [1]. Company Responses - Major Chinese cobalt producers, including Luoyang Molybdenum and Huayou Cobalt, have indicated that their operations in the DRC are not significantly impacted by the export ban extension. Luoyang Molybdenum reported a cobalt production of 114,200 tons last year, a 106% increase year-on-year, while Huayou Cobalt noted that its cobalt capacity is primarily based in Indonesia, minimizing the impact of the DRC ban [2][4]. - Analysts suggest that domestic cobalt refining companies may face pressure due to increased uncertainty in cobalt raw material supply, although they currently have sufficient inventory to continue production [2][3]. Market Dynamics - The DRC is the largest cobalt producer globally, accounting for 76% of the world's cobalt production last year [5]. - Prior to the ban, cobalt prices had already dropped nearly 70% from their peak in Q1 2022, indicating a significant oversupply in the market [6]. - The ban's extension is expected to affect 128,000 tons of cobalt exports from the DRC this year, potentially shifting the global cobalt market from oversupply to a shortage by 2025, which could drive prices up [8]. Future Outlook - Industry experts have mixed views on whether the DRC's export ban will effectively alter the global cobalt supply-demand balance. Some predict short-term price increases driven by market sentiment, while others caution that without sufficient demand, the oversupply may persist [8][9]. - The DRC's strategy may include measures to enhance its pricing power in the cobalt market, although the implications of such strategies on the overall market dynamics remain uncertain [9].

一、行情回顾 二、当日热点 1.区块链 区块链概念今日再度大涨，安妮股份、浙江东日、恒宝股份等再度涨停。四方精创一度涨停，再创历史新高。 证券时报6月23日发布头版头条文章《顺应稳定币浪潮 主动作为助推人民币国际化》，文章提到，稳定币浪潮正向全球袭来，对于正在积极提升人民币国际 化地位的中国，主动监管稳定币并顺势而为加速人民币国际化或许是更优解。 此外，在中国人民银行和香港金融管理局的共同推动下，跨境支付通22日正式上线，标志内地与香港快速支付系统实现互联互通，今后两地居民可实时办理 跨境汇款。当天，全国首笔跨境支付通汇款业务落地深圳。 当地时间6月20日，"稳定币第一股"Circle延续疯狂涨势，再度飙升逾20%至240.28美元，自IPO以来累计涨幅超650%。在美国参议院通过GENIUS法案后， 连续第二个交易日大涨。 市场全天低开高走，三大指数集体上涨。稳定币概念股再度大涨，恒宝股份、海联金汇等多股涨停。航运板块全天强势，宁波海运、兴通股份等封板。油气 股再度爆发，山东墨龙、准油股份等涨停。银行股继续走强，工商银行、建设银行等多股创新高。个股涨多跌少，沪深京三市超4400股飘红，今日成交1.15 万亿 ...