Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector has experienced a significant decline, with multiple companies facing substantial stock price drops [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Tengyuan Cobalt Industry (301219) has seen a nearly 10% drop in its stock price [1] - Huayou Cobalt (603799) has experienced a decline of over 8% [1] - Several other companies, including Shengda Resources (000603), Xingye Silver Tin (000426), and Zijin Mining (601899), have also reported stock price decreases exceeding 5% [1]

Group 1 - The report highlights the resurgence of tariffs between China and the U.S., suggesting an increased allocation towards gold as a safe-haven asset [1][2] - Precious metals continue to show strength, with silver spot prices reflecting insufficient upward momentum, indicating potential risks of a pullback amid trade disputes [1][2] - The long-term trend of de-dollarization is expected to persist, coupled with inflows into ETFs due to short-term interest rate cuts, supporting a positive outlook for the precious metals sector [1][2] Group 2 - Copper prices are anticipated to rise due to supply disruptions, with recent production guidance cuts from Freeport and Teck Resources enhancing the likelihood of a reversal in the global electrolytic copper balance by 2026 [2] - The aluminum market is also waiting for a buying opportunity following recent price increases, with inventory levels showing expected increases without exceeding forecasts [2] - Cobalt prices have surged significantly, with expectations for continued price increases in 2026-2027 due to a projected supply-demand gap of 20,000 to 30,000 tons next year [3][4] Group 3 - Recent export controls on rare earth materials by Chinese authorities are expected to exacerbate supply-demand imbalances, potentially leading to a new upward trend in rare earth prices [4] - The report suggests monitoring specific companies such as Northern Rare Earth, Baotou Steel, and Huayou Cobalt, among others, for investment opportunities in the precious metals and rare earth sectors [5]

Core Insights - Tengyuan Cobalt Industry experienced a decline of 5.04% on October 14, with a stock price of 73.48 yuan per share and a trading volume of 562 million yuan, resulting in a total market capitalization of 21.656 billion yuan [1] Company Overview - Tengyuan Cobalt Industry Co., Ltd. is located in Ganzhou, Jiangxi Province, and was established on March 26, 2004, with its listing date on March 17, 2022 [1] - The company's main business includes the production and sales of hazardous chemicals, fertilizers, non-ferrous metal smelting, basic chemical raw materials manufacturing, recycling of used power batteries for electric vehicles, and manufacturing of new building materials [1] - The revenue composition of the company is as follows: cobalt products account for 47.56%, copper products for 44.39%, and other products for 8.05% [1] Fund Holdings - Silver Hua Fund has a significant holding in Tengyuan Cobalt Industry, with its Silver Hua Growth Mixed Fund (161838) increasing its stake by 24,000 shares in the second quarter, holding a total of 293,800 shares, which represents 5.87% of the fund's net value [2] - The fund has reported a floating loss of approximately 1.146 million yuan as of the current date [2] Fund Manager Performance - The fund managers of Silver Hua Growth Mixed Fund are Liu Hui and Wang Ligang, with Liu Hui having a tenure of 8 years and 216 days, achieving a best fund return of 142.12% during his tenure [3] - Wang Ligang has a tenure of 5 years and 290 days, with a best fund return of 38.14% during his management [3]

Core Insights - Tengyuan Cobalt (301219) reported that as of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders is 28,910 [1] Company Information - Tengyuan Cobalt is actively engaging with investors through interactive platforms [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Views - The report highlights the potential for price increases in copper due to supply disruptions and tariff impacts, suggesting that recent price pullbacks may present good buying opportunities [6] - The report emphasizes the strong performance of precious metals, particularly gold, amid renewed tariff concerns between China and the US, recommending an increased allocation to gold [5] - The report notes significant price increases in cobalt intermediate products, forecasting continued price growth in 2026-2027 due to supply-demand imbalances [7] - The report discusses the tightening supply of rare earths due to new export controls, which may lead to price increases in the domestic market [7] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the industry is at 7554.83, with a 52-week high of 7783.14 and a low of 4280.14 [2] Price Movements - Basic metals saw price increases: LME copper rose by 0.76%, aluminum by 2.20%, zinc by 0.95%, and lead by 1.44%. Precious metals also saw gains, with COMEX gold up by 3.80% and silver by 1.44% [21] Inventory Changes - Global visible inventory changes included an increase of 14,579 tons in copper, a decrease of 4,602 tons in aluminum, and an increase of 17,175 tons in lead [30]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [4] Core Insights - The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) government has issued conditions for obtaining and distributing cobalt export quotas, effective from October 16, 2025 [1][2] - The DRC is expected to contribute 76% of global cobalt production in 2024, with a projected reduction in export supply over the next two years [10][11] - The report highlights potential supply shortages in the cobalt market due to various companies facing operational challenges [8][10] Summary by Sections Export Quota Details - The basic export quotas for cobalt in 2025 are set at 3,625 tons for October, and 7,250 tons for both November and December [2] - Quotas are allocated based on historical export volumes from January 1, 2022, to December 31, 2024, with specific exclusions for certain companies [2][3] Company-Specific Quotas - Key companies and their basic export quotas for Q4 2025 include: - Luoyang Molybdenum: 6,650 tons - Glencore: 3,925 tons - Eurasian Resources: 2,125 tons - Gecamines: 1,475 tons [6][16] - The 2026 quotas for these companies are projected to be significantly higher, indicating a potential increase in production capacity [7] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report anticipates a supply gap of approximately 25,500 tons in 2027, driven by increasing global demand for cobalt, particularly in electric vehicles [12][13] - The DRC's export supply is expected to decrease significantly, with a projected reduction of 12,340 tons over the next two years [11][12] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as: - Luoyang Molybdenum, which will hold a significant share of the DRC's export quotas - Huayou Cobalt, with substantial production capacity in Indonesia - Other companies like Likin Resources and Greeenmei, which are expanding their nickel and cobalt production capabilities [15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the non-ferrous metals sector, highlighting the strengthening of gold's safe-haven attributes and further management of the rare earth industry [1]. Core Views - The report emphasizes the impact of trade tariff concerns on gold's safe-haven demand, while silver prices are accelerating due to spot market shortages and warehouse squeezes [7]. - The rare earth industry is seeing enhanced management policies, ensuring the strategic security of China's rare earth industry [7]. - The cobalt market is expected to experience upward price pressure due to the announced export quotas from the Democratic Republic of Congo [7]. Industry Overview - **Industrial Metals**: The report notes that trade tariff concerns are increasing gold's safe-haven demand, with silver prices rising due to market shortages. The SPDR Gold ETF saw a decrease in holdings by 2.3 tons to 1013.44 tons, while iShares Silver ETF increased by 35.28 tons to 15443.76 tons [7]. - **Rare Earths**: Recent announcements from the Ministry of Commerce regarding export controls on rare earth materials are expected to enhance the management of the industry, ensuring strategic security [7]. - **Cobalt**: The Democratic Republic of Congo's export quota policy is likely to support cobalt prices, with the average price of electrolytic cobalt rising by 4.8% to 349,500 CNY/ton [9]. Stock Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies in the precious metals sector such as Zhongjin Gold, Chifeng Jilong Gold, and Shandong Gold, as well as silver companies like Xingye Silver and Shengda Resources [2]. - For cobalt, companies such as Huayou Cobalt, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Tengyuan Cobalt are highlighted as potential beneficiaries of rising cobalt prices [10].

Core Viewpoint - The gold and non-ferrous metal sectors experienced a significant decline at the beginning of trading on October 10, with multiple companies in these sectors reporting substantial drops in their stock prices [1]. Group 1: Gold Sector - Xiaocheng Technology saw a decline of over 7%, trading at 28.13 [2] - Western Gold fell by over 6%, with a current price of 30.65 [2] - Other notable declines include Chifeng Gold down by 5.30% at 30.40, Shandong Gold down by 4.09% at 41.49, and Hunan Gold down by 3.81% at 22.73 [2][3]. Group 2: Non-Ferrous Metal Sector - Companies such as Huayou Cobalt, Tengyuan Cobalt, and Hanrui Cobalt all experienced declines, indicating a broader downturn in the non-ferrous metal market [1]. - Specific declines include Huayou Cobalt down by 5.68% at 66.30, Tengyuan Cobalt down by 5.37% at 76.78, and Tianqi Lithium down by 2.79% at 49.90 [3].

Group 1 - The gold and non-ferrous metal sectors experienced a significant decline on October 10, with many companies in these sectors reporting losses [1] - Notable declines in the gold sector included Xiaocheng Technology down 7.13% to 28.13, Western Gold down 6.81% to 30.65, and Chifeng Gold down 5.30% to 30.40 [2] - In the non-ferrous metal sector, companies such as Huayou Cobalt, Tengyuan Cobalt, and Tianqi Lithium also saw collective declines [3] Group 2 - The overall market sentiment for gold and related companies appears negative, as multiple firms reported losses exceeding 4% [2][3] - The decline in stock prices indicates potential challenges within the gold and non-ferrous metal industries, reflecting broader market trends [1][2]

Core Viewpoint - Tengyuan Cobalt Industry experienced a significant increase in stock price and trading volume, indicating strong market interest and activity in the company's shares [1][2]. Financing Summary - On October 9, Tengyuan Cobalt Industry had a financing buy-in amount of 218 million yuan, with a net financing buy of 47.11 million yuan after accounting for repayments [1]. - The total financing balance reached 556 million yuan, representing 2.33% of the circulating market value, which is above the 90th percentile of the past year, indicating a high level of financing activity [1]. - In terms of securities lending, the company had a repayment of 10,200 shares and a sell amount of 900 shares, with a total lending balance of 97.37 million yuan, which is below the 30th percentile of the past year, indicating low lending activity [1]. Company Overview - Tengyuan Cobalt Industry, established on March 26, 2004, and listed on March 17, 2022, is located in Jiangxi Province and specializes in various sectors including hazardous chemicals, fertilizers, non-ferrous metal smelting, and recycling of used batteries [2]. - The company's revenue composition is primarily from cobalt products (47.56%) and copper products (44.39%), with other products accounting for 8.05% [2]. - As of September 19, the number of shareholders decreased by 3.18% to 24,500, while the average circulating shares per person increased by 74.97% to 11,801 shares [2]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Tengyuan Cobalt Industry reported a revenue of 3.532 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.30%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 469 million yuan, up by 9.94% year-on-year [2]. Dividend Information - Since its A-share listing, Tengyuan Cobalt Industry has distributed a total of 1.649 billion yuan in dividends, with 1.147 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Institutional Holdings - As of June 30, 2025, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited has exited the list of the top ten circulating shareholders of Tengyuan Cobalt Industry [3].