华见早安之声 请各位听众升级为见闻最新版APP，以便成功收听以下音频。 市场概述 微软AI支出引爆忧虑，股价暴跌10%，拖累美股大盘。贵金属巨震。 纳指跌0.72%。微软一度暴跌12%、收跌10%，创2020年以来最大日跌幅，市值蒸发是美股史上第二大。Meta大涨超10%。特斯拉跌超3%。周四美股盘后公 布业绩后，苹果一度涨超2%、闪迪大涨12%。 10年期美债收益率小幅下跌0.6个基点至4.233%。 币圈重挫。比特币大跌6%、至两个月低点。以太坊跌超7%、跌破2800美元。 金价早盘曾大涨3.3%、逼近5600美元历史高位后跳水，一度较日高暴跌近9%，随后跌幅收窄。白银创下121美元的历史新高后，一度重挫超12%。铜价一度 大涨超11%，随后涨势回落、日内纽铜仍涨超6%。美伊局势支撑原油三连涨、日内涨3%，美油站上65美元。 亚洲时段，沪指震荡收涨，白酒爆发、贵州茅台涨逾8%，地产大涨，恒科指跌1%，芯片调整，沪金银铜飙升。 要闻 中国 习近平会见英国首相斯塔默。中英双方在英国首相斯塔默访华期间达成一系列积极成果。 外交部回应：中国已批准进口首批英伟达H200人工智能芯片？黄仁勋：此次访华行程"非常成功" ...

Group 1 - Alibaba is considering increasing its investment in AI infrastructure and cloud computing from 380 billion to 480 billion over the next three years, as indicated by a source [1] - Alibaba Cloud holds the largest market share in the AI cloud sector, benefiting from strong model capabilities, extensive computing power layout, and a wide range of high-stickiness customers, which enhances its pricing autonomy [1] - Recent price increases by overseas cloud providers are attributed to supply-demand imbalances, with AI-driven demand surging and exceeding current computing supply capabilities, prompting upstream cloud providers to increase hardware procurement and network infrastructure investments [1] Group 2 - In the domestic market, the competitive advantage of leading cloud providers like Alibaba Cloud is becoming more pronounced due to the technological drive of large AI models, leading to increased industry concentration and an optimized competitive landscape [1] - The rapid expansion of demand, coupled with tight chip resource supply and evolving pricing trends in the international cloud market, is expected to drive a revaluation of the domestic cloud service market, balancing costs and resource allocation [1] - A subsidiary of Hangzhou Steel Group has signed a data center agreement with Alibaba Cloud, indicating collaboration in the cloud computing space [1]

丨 2026年1月30日星期五丨 NO.3 特斯拉将停产Model S/X，全力投入Optimus研发 当地时间1月28日，特斯拉首席执行官马斯克在财报会议上表示，公司将在下个季度停产Model S和 Model X车型。"现在是时候让Model S和Model X项目光荣退役了，因为我们正真正迈向以自动驾驶为 核心的未来。"马斯克表示。马斯克还透露，特斯拉正将加州弗里蒙特工厂的Model S和Model X生产线 替换为Optimus生产线，其长期目标是实现年产百万台机器人的产能。 点评：马斯克此项宣布，意味着特斯拉的战略重心正从"电动汽车制造商"转向"自动驾驶与机器人公 司"。不过，在核心汽车业务面临激烈竞争时，将资源大规模倾斜至远期且不确定的机器人项目也会带 来财务与执行风险。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 1月29日，阿里平头哥官网上线高端AI芯片"真武810E"产品信息，该芯片实现软硬件全自研，已在阿里 云实现多个万卡集群部署，服务了国家电网、中国科学院、小鹏汽车、新浪微博等400多家客户。这是 由通义实验室、阿里云和平头哥组成的阿里巴巴AI黄金三角"通云哥"首次浮出水面。 点评：当前，AI竞争的制高 ...

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of "Rider-Friendly Communities" across various cities in China is improving working conditions for delivery riders, addressing issues such as access, parking, navigation, charging, and dining [1][2]. Group 1: Community Development - The first "Rider-Friendly Community" was launched in Tian Tong Yuan, Beijing, in January 2024, and has rapidly expanded to multiple cities nationwide [1]. - Riders are experiencing improved living conditions, such as affordable housing options, with some riders paying only 700 yuan per month for accommodation in central Beijing [1]. - The community initiative is a collaborative effort involving local governments, property management, delivery platforms, and riders, fostering a more harmonious coexistence [1][7]. Group 2: Infrastructure Improvements - Enhancements in community infrastructure include the installation of directional signs, friendly maps, and illuminated doorplates to assist riders in navigating residential areas [2]. - Charging stations have been established to alleviate riders' concerns about battery life, allowing for quick battery swaps [2]. - The community has defined "six types of friendliness" to guide the development of Rider-Friendly Communities: information, co-governance, service, interpersonal, spatial, and facility friendliness [2]. Group 3: Addressing Access Issues - The initiative began by addressing the "access difficulty" faced by riders, who often felt discriminated against when trying to enter residential areas [4][5]. - Solutions were developed through collaborative discussions among riders, property owners, and community representatives, leading to agreements on access during peak and non-peak hours [6]. - Technology is being utilized to streamline identity verification for riders, enhancing their access to residential areas while alleviating property owners' concerns [6]. Group 4: Community Engagement - The initiative promotes community engagement, with riders participating in local events and volunteer activities, fostering a sense of belonging [7]. - The relationship between residents and riders is improving, with increased interactions leading to greater understanding and acceptance [7]. - Delivery platforms are also contributing to community safety and governance by encouraging riders to report safety hazards and participate in community service [7]. Group 5: Future Prospects - As of November 2025, over 40,000 Rider-Friendly Communities have been established in more than 200 cities by Meituan, with similar efforts by other platforms like Taobao [8]. - The concept of "Friendly Cities" is being expanded beyond communities to include business districts, parks, and office buildings, indicating a broader vision for urban development [8].

Core Viewpoint - Southbound funds reduced their holdings in Alibaba-W (09988.HK) by 2.4157 million shares on January 29, indicating a fluctuation in investor sentiment towards the company [1] Group 1: Southbound Fund Activity - In the last five trading days, southbound funds increased their holdings on two occasions, with a total net increase of 2.5658 million shares [1] - Over the past 20 trading days, there were 14 days of net increases, totaling 26.8275 million shares [1] - Currently, southbound funds hold 2.227 billion shares of Alibaba-W, representing 11.65% of the company's total issued ordinary shares [1] Group 2: Company Overview - Alibaba Group Holding Limited provides technological infrastructure and marketing platforms, operating through seven business segments [1] - The China Commerce segment includes retail businesses such as Taobao, Tmall, and Hema, as well as wholesale operations [1] - The International Commerce segment encompasses international retail and wholesale businesses like Lazada and AliExpress [1] - The Local Consumer Services segment includes location-based services such as Ele.me, Gaode, and Fliggy [1] - The Cainiao segment offers domestic and international logistics services and supply chain management solutions [1] - The Cloud segment provides public and hybrid cloud services to domestic and international enterprises, including Alibaba Cloud and DingTalk [1] - The Digital Media and Entertainment segment includes Youku, Quark, Alibaba Pictures, and other content and distribution platforms, as well as online gaming [1] - The Innovation Initiatives and Others segment comprises DAMO Academy, Tmall Genie, and other businesses [1]

Core Insights - Alibaba has officially launched its high-end AI chip "Zhenwu 810E," marking a significant milestone in its transition from an e-commerce company to a high-tech enterprise driven by both e-commerce and AI [1][9] - The company has established a robust AI ecosystem, referred to as the "AI Golden Triangle," which integrates its self-developed chips, cloud computing capabilities, and top-tier open-source models [1][6] Group 1: AI Chip Development - The "Zhenwu" PPU features a self-developed parallel computing architecture and inter-chip communication technology, with a memory of 96G HBM2e and an inter-chip bandwidth of 700GB/s, suitable for AI training, inference, and autonomous driving [3] - The performance of the "Zhenwu" PPU surpasses that of mainstream domestic GPUs, and it has been deployed in over 400 clients, including major organizations like State Grid and Xpeng Motors [5] Group 2: AI Ecosystem and Market Position - Alibaba Cloud, established in 2009, has become one of the top four AI clouds globally, serving over 5 million customers and holding the largest market share in the Asia-Pacific region [6] - The company has launched over 400 open-source models, with the "Qianwen" model family exceeding 200,000 derivatives and over 1 billion downloads, making it the most popular large model in China [6] Group 3: Strategic Investments and Future Outlook - Alibaba is investing 380 billion yuan in AI infrastructure over three years, with plans for further investments to enhance its AI capabilities [9] - The company's cloud revenue reached 39.824 billion yuan in Q2 of the 2026 fiscal year, reflecting a 34% year-on-year growth, indicating potential for further acceleration in revenue and valuation [9]

Group 1 - The Tmall New Year Festival offers significant discounts on home appliances, with official reductions starting at 8.8% and additional coupons available, allowing prices to drop to as low as 50% after combining various promotions [1] - Major home appliance brands such as Philips, Joyoung, Gree, Midea, Hisense, Siemens, and others are participating in the Tmall event, providing fast delivery services [1] - The "4-hour delivery" service is now available in ten major cities, including Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Beijing, enhancing consumer convenience and satisfaction [4] Group 2 - The integration of Tmall brands into Taobao Flash Sale reflects a growing trend in instant retail, with approximately 3,500 Tmall brands connecting their offline stores to the service [5] - The collaboration has resulted in a significant increase in consumer orders, with daily orders for instant retail on Tmall seeing a 198% month-over-month growth compared to September [5] - The fast delivery service has led to a notable increase in sales for participating brands, with some products experiencing over a 30% rise in sales due to improved logistics and delivery efficiency [4]

Core Insights - Alibaba Group Holding's second-quarter fiscal 2026 results reveal significant challenges, prompting a reassessment of investment positions as the company faces severe margin compression despite modest revenue growth [2][10] Financial Performance - The company reported revenues of RMB 247.8 billion for the September quarter, reflecting a 5% year-over-year growth, with a 15% increase on a like-for-like basis when excluding divested businesses [3] - Non-GAAP earnings were reported at 61 cents per ADS, falling short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 7.58%, with non-GAAP diluted earnings in domestic currency at RMB 4.36, down 71% year over year [3] Competitive Landscape - Margin deterioration is attributed to hyper-competition, with sales and marketing expenses more than doubling to RMB 66 billion as the company strives to maintain market share against rivals like JD.com and Pinduoduo [4] - The food delivery sector has intensified competition, particularly with JD.com's entry into the delivery space, leading to subsidized pricing battles that threaten margin recovery [8][12] Strategic Investments - A concerning 78% decline in adjusted EBITDA is largely due to cash-burning investments in the Quick Commerce business, despite management reporting improved unit economics [6] - Approximately RMB 120 billion has been allocated towards AI and cloud infrastructure over the past four quarters, indicating aggressive spending without clear return timelines [6][11] Cloud Segment Performance - The Cloud Intelligence Group saw a revenue increase of 34% year over year to RMB 39.8 billion, but this growth is insufficient to offset the core e-commerce margin deterioration [9] - Supply chain constraints are acknowledged as limiting the pace of AI infrastructure deployment, indicating execution challenges even in this growth segment [9] Valuation Concerns - Alibaba's forward 12-month price-to-sales ratio stands at 2.61 times, a premium compared to the broader Zacks Internet-Commerce industry average of 2.25 times, suggesting limited valuation support amid deteriorating fundamentals [13] - The stock's 1% return over the past three months contrasts sharply with global technology peers, reflecting investor awareness of the company's challenges [16] Competitive Positioning - Compared to global technology leaders like Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet, Alibaba's competitive position appears precarious, struggling to match operational excellence and profitability [17]

1月29日，挪威央行投资管理（Norges Bank Investment Management）正式发布 2025 年年度投资报告。 数据显示，全球最大主权财富基金之一的挪威政府全球养老基金（Government Pension Fund Global，GPFG）在2025年实现15.1%的整体回报率，基金规模 于2025年12月31日达到21.268万亿挪威克朗（约合15.47万亿人民币）。 从基金规模变动细节来看，2025年基金会计收益达2.362万亿克朗（约1.72万亿人民币），但受挪威克朗对多国主要货币升值影响，汇率因素导致基金价值 缩水。同时，扣除管理费用后的资金净流入为319亿克朗，多重因素共同作用下，基金全年规模净增1.526万亿克朗。 从资产类别表现来看，权益类投资成为基金收益的核心驱动力。2025年，基金股票投资回报率高达19.3%，显著跑赢其他资产类别。其中，科技、金融及 基础材料板块表现尤为突出，贡献了权益投资的主要收益。挪威央行投资管理首席执行官尼古拉・丹根（Nicolai Tangen）在声明中强调："2025年基金交 出了极具说服力的成绩单，科技、金融与基础材料领域的优质股票持续 ...

Core Insights - The investment environment in 2025 was challenging, with foreign equity markets achieving their best returns in over a decade, while the International Growth Composite Portfolio finished the year essentially flat due to a market preference for cyclically sensitive businesses [8][11]. Portfolio Performance - The International Growth Composite Portfolio's performance was -2.21% for the quarter and 0.68% year-to-date, compared to the MSCI ACWI (ex-USA) which returned 5.05% for the quarter and 32.39% year-to-date [5]. - Top contributors to the Portfolio's performance included Tokyo Electron, ASML, and Shopify, while the largest detractors were Monday.com, MercadoLibre, and SAP [13][17]. Company-Specific Insights - **Tokyo Electron**: A leading player in semiconductor manufacturing equipment, expected to grow revenues at a high single-digit rate and increase operating margins from 25% in 2024 to 35% in the medium term, driving mid-teens earnings growth [14]. - **ASML**: Benefiting from investor optimism around AI, as its equipment is essential for advanced chips, which are critical for AI applications [16]. - **Monday.com**: Despite strong results, the stock sold off due to concerns over near-term growth slowdown, but revenue growth is expected to sustain over 20% as it expands its market reach [18]. - **MercadoLibre**: The largest e-commerce platform in Latin America, experiencing a decline in stock price due to a slight decrease in operating margin while investing in growth initiatives [19]. - **SAP**: Despite cloud revenue growth exceeding expectations, the stock faced pressure due to market conditions, but is viewed as resilient with a strong market position and high recurring revenues [20]. Portfolio Activity - New position established in **Nintendo**, which is expected to see significant growth following the release of the Switch 2, with anticipated earnings growth of 30% annually over the next few years [23]. - Positions in **Teleperformance** and **Siemens Healthineers** were eliminated due to ongoing business challenges, reallocating funds to invest in Nintendo and Tencent [25][26]. Market Outlook - The outlook for the Portfolio remains positive, with expectations of benefiting from structural trends such as technology shifts and growth in emerging markets like India [27].