Core Insights - The company reported a total transaction volume of RMB 736.7 billion (USD 103.5 billion) for Q3 2025, showing a year-on-year stability [1] - The total transaction volume for existing homes was RMB 505.6 billion (USD 71.0 billion), reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.8%, while new home transactions decreased by 13.7% to RMB 196.3 billion (USD 27.6 billion) [1] - Net income reached RMB 23.1 billion (USD 3.2 billion), a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, but net profit fell by 36.1% to RMB 747 million (USD 105 million) [1] - The company has been focusing on enhancing operational efficiency and customer experience through organizational upgrades and technological innovations [2] Financial Performance - Adjusted net profit for Q3 2025 was RMB 1.286 billion (USD 181 million), down 27.8% year-on-year [1] - Operating expenses decreased by 1.8% year-on-year and 6.7% quarter-on-quarter to RMB 4.3 billion [2] - The company achieved a record high in profit contribution from home decoration and rental services, with these segments becoming profitable at the city level [2] Operational Metrics - As of September 30, 2025, the number of stores increased by 27.3% year-on-year to 61,393, with active stores rising by 25.9% to 59,012 [1] - The number of agents reached 545,500, a 14.5% increase year-on-year, while active agents grew by 11.4% to 471,500 [1] - The average monthly active users on mobile platforms increased to 49.3 million, compared to 46.2 million in the same period last year [1] Shareholder Returns - The company repurchased shares worth USD 281 million in Q3 2025, marking the highest quarterly buyback in nearly two years [3] - Total repurchase expenditure for the year reached approximately USD 675 million, a 15.7% increase compared to the same period last year [3] - Cumulatively, the company has repurchased shares worth about USD 2.3 billion since the buyback program began in September 2022, representing approximately 11.5% of the total shares before the program [3]

Financial Performance - Total transaction value for Q3 2025 was RMB 736.7 billion ($103.5 billion), remaining flat year-over-year[6]. - Net income for Q3 2025 was RMB 23.1 billion ($3.2 billion), an increase of 2.1% year-over-year[12]. - Adjusted net profit for Q3 2025 was RMB 128.6 million ($18.1 million), a decrease of 27.8% year-over-year[8]. - Operating profit for Q3 2025 was RMB 608 million (USD 85 million), down from RMB 727 million in Q3 2024[19]. - Net profit for Q3 2025 was RMB 747 million (USD 105 million), compared to RMB 1,168 million in Q3 2024[22]. - Adjusted net profit decreased by 27.8% to RMB 1,286 million (USD 181 million) in Q3 2025, down from RMB 1,782 million in Q3 2024[22]. - In Q3 2025, the net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders of Beike Holdings was RMB 749 million (USD 105 million), a decrease of 36% from RMB 1,171 million in Q3 2024[23]. - The adjusted net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders for Q3 2025 was RMB 1,288 million (USD 181 million), down 28% from RMB 1,785 million in the same period of 2024[23]. - Basic and diluted earnings per American Depositary Share (ADS) for Q3 2025 were RMB 0.68 (USD 0.10) and RMB 0.65 (USD 0.09), respectively, compared to RMB 1.04 and RMB 1.00 in Q3 2024[24]. - The adjusted earnings per ADS for Q3 2025 were RMB 1.17 (USD 0.16) and RMB 1.12 (USD 0.16), down from RMB 1.58 and RMB 1.53 in Q3 2024[24]. Business Operations - Active stores as of September 30, 2025, numbered 61,393, a 27.3% increase year-over-year[8]. - Active agents as of September 30, 2025, totaled 545,511, reflecting a 14.5% increase year-over-year[8]. - Monthly active users averaged 49.3 million in Q3 2025, up from 46.2 million in the same period last year[8]. - The company operates a leading online and offline integrated real estate transaction and service platform, with over 23 years of operational experience since the establishment of its brand, Lianjia[34]. - The company aims to reshape service operation models to provide more efficient real estate transaction and living services[34]. Revenue and Income Sources - The total transaction value for existing homes increased by 5.8% year-over-year to RMB 505.6 billion ($71.0 billion) in Q3 2025[6]. - The net income from existing home business decreased by 3.6% to RMB 60 billion (USD 8 billion) in Q3 2025, compared to RMB 62 billion in Q3 2024[13]. - The total transaction value of existing home business increased by 5.8% to RMB 505.6 billion (USD 71 billion) in Q3 2025, up from RMB 477.8 billion in Q3 2024[13]. - The net income from new home business decreased by 14.1% to RMB 66 billion (USD 9 billion) in Q3 2025, compared to RMB 77 billion in Q3 2024[13]. - The total transaction value of new home business decreased by 13.7% to RMB 196.3 billion (USD 27.6 billion) in Q3 2025, down from RMB 227.6 billion in Q3 2024[13]. - The net income from rental services increased by 45.3% to RMB 57 billion (USD 8 billion) in Q3 2025, compared to RMB 39 billion in Q3 2024[15]. Expenses and Costs - Operating expenses for Q3 2025 were RMB 4.3 billion, a decrease of 1.8% year-over-year and 6.7% quarter-over-quarter[11]. - The total operating costs increased by 3.8% to RMB 181 billion (USD 25 billion) in Q3 2025, up from RMB 174 billion in Q3 2024[14]. - Gross profit decreased by 3.9% to RMB 49 billion (USD 7 billion) in Q3 2025, compared to RMB 51 billion in Q3 2024[17]. Shareholder and Investment Activities - The company repurchased shares worth $281 million in Q3 2025, the highest quarterly repurchase amount in nearly two years[11]. - The company has a share repurchase plan allowing for the purchase of up to USD 5 billion of Class A ordinary shares and/or ADSs by August 31, 2028, with approximately 145.1 million ADSs repurchased for a total consideration of about USD 2,300.5 million since the plan's initiation[26]. Cash and Assets - As of September 30, 2025, the company's cash, cash equivalents, restricted cash, and short-term investments totaled RMB 55.7 billion (USD 7.8 billion)[25]. - Cash and cash equivalents stood at RMB 11,442,965,000 as of December 31, 2024, compared to RMB 9,221,654,000 as of September 30, 2025, marking an increase of around 24.0%[39]. - The total equity attributable to shareholders was RMB 71,323,816,000 as of December 31, 2024, up from RMB 67,841,548,000 as of September 30, 2025, showing a growth of approximately 2.1%[42]. Forward-Looking Statements and Risks - Forward-looking statements in the announcement are identified by terms such as "will," "expect," and "believe," indicating potential risks and uncertainties[35]. - The company does not undertake any obligation to update forward-looking statements unless required by applicable law[35]. Non-GAAP Financial Measures - The company utilizes non-GAAP financial measures, including adjusted operating profit and adjusted net profit, to assess its operational performance and trends[31]. - The company emphasizes that non-GAAP financial metrics should not be considered in isolation and encourages investors to review these metrics alongside GAAP indicators[32]. - Adjusted operating profit is defined as operating profit excluding stock-based compensation, intangible asset amortization from acquisitions, and impairment of goodwill and other long-term assets[32]. - The adjusted net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders is calculated by excluding specific items such as stock-based compensation and impairment losses[33].

Core Insights - KE Holdings Inc. ("Beike") reported its third-quarter financial results for 2025, highlighting operational efficiency improvements and technological innovations in housing transactions and services [1][3][4]. Business and Financial Highlights - The company launched a pilot program in Shanghai focusing on a 'buyer-seller agent specialization' mechanism to enhance marketing and selling capabilities [3]. - AI integration into home rental services has empowered workflows and improved customer experiences, contributing over RMB100 million in profit for the quarter [3]. - Gross transaction value (GTV) for existing home transactions was RMB505.6 billion (US$71.0 billion), a 5.8% increase year-over-year, while GTV for new home transactions decreased by 13.7% to RMB196.3 billion (US$27.6 billion) [7][10]. - Net revenues increased by 2.1% year-over-year to RMB23.1 billion (US$3.2 billion), driven by growth in home rental services [8]. - The company achieved city-level profitability in both home renovation and furnishing, and home rental services, with combined contribution profit reaching a record high [4]. Share Repurchase Program - In Q3 2025, the company allocated US$281 million for share repurchases, marking the highest single-quarter spending in two years [5]. - As of the end of Q3 2025, approximately US$675 million worth of shares had been repurchased this year, a 15.7% increase year-over-year [5]. Financial Results - Net income for Q3 2025 was RMB747 million (US$105 million), a decrease of 36.1% year-over-year, while adjusted net income fell by 27.8% to RMB1,286 million (US$181 million) [18][19]. - The number of stores increased by 27.3% year-over-year to 61,393, and the number of agents rose by 14.5% to 545,511 [7]. - Operating expenses decreased by 1.8% year-over-year to RMB4.3 billion (US$0.6 billion) [4][13]. Cash and Investments - As of September 30, 2025, the company had cash reserves totaling RMB55.7 billion (US$7.8 billion) [22].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on cloud vendors and companies with exceeding expectations in the current market environment [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights a divergence in market performance, with consumer companies facing pressure while AI technology companies continue to show mixed results. Concerns about AI valuation bubbles persist, but leading tech companies like Microsoft, Google, and Meta maintain strong cash flows, suggesting a stable outlook for cloud vendors [3]. - The gaming demand remains robust, although there is a short-term lack of new game releases. Attention is drawn to the progress of key game tests and launches, which could drive revenue growth for related companies [3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring quarterly reports from major Chinese companies like Tencent, JD, Baidu, and Alibaba, as well as the ongoing value in sectors like PDD and the gaming industry [3]. Summary by Sections 1.1 Consumer & Internet - **Education**: The education index fell by 3.59%, with notable performance differences among companies. The implementation of a spring and autumn break system in Sichuan is expected to impact the sector positively [11][18]. - **Luxury & Gaming**: The luxury goods and gaming sectors are closely tied to macroeconomic conditions. Recent Q3 earnings from major gaming companies exceeded expectations, benefiting from a longer holiday schedule in 2026 [19][24]. - **Coffee & Tea**: The coffee sector remains vibrant, while the tea sector faces challenges due to reduced delivery platform subsidies and seasonal competition [3][27]. - **E-commerce**: The e-commerce sector is under pressure, with a lackluster performance during the Double Eleven shopping festival [3][35]. 1.2 Platform & Technology - **Streaming Platforms**: The streaming sector is driven by domestic demand, with platforms like Spotify reporting better-than-expected earnings [3][42]. - **Virtual Assets & Internet Brokers**: The cryptocurrency market is experiencing volatility, with a significant drop in global market value. However, there are potential buying opportunities following recent corrections [3][43]. - **Automotive Services**: The automotive aftermarket is projected to decline, with a year-over-year decrease of 4% expected by October 2025 [3][61]. 1.3 Media - The media sector is experiencing mixed performance, with streaming services facing challenges but also opportunities for growth through strategic partnerships and content offerings [3][41].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [4]. Core Views - The report emphasizes that policy measures are being driven by fundamental economic pressures, suggesting that the current policy intensity may exceed that of 2008 and 2014, and is still in progress [4]. - Real estate serves as an early-cycle indicator, making it a key economic barometer for investment [4]. - The competitive landscape in the industry is improving, with leading state-owned enterprises and select mixed-ownership and private companies performing well in land acquisition and sales [4]. - The report continues to favor investments in first-tier and select second- and third-tier cities, which have shown better performance during sales rebounds [4]. - Supply-side policies, including land storage and management of idle land, are crucial areas to monitor, with first- and second-tier cities expected to benefit more [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Current Resident Price Expectations - According to the central bank's survey, the proportion of urban depositors who are pessimistic about housing prices has returned to levels seen in Q3 2024, with optimism below 10% [11]. - In Q3 2025, 9.1% of residents expect prices to rise, while 55.6% expect them to remain stable, and 23.5% anticipate a decline [11]. - The report notes that the "924" policy was introduced during a period of market pessimism, leading to a marginal improvement in confidence, but this has waned over time due to a lack of new policies [11]. 2. Market Review - The Shenwan Real Estate Index decreased by 0.2% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 1.05 percentage points, ranking 24th among 31 Shenwan primary industries [2]. - New home sales in 30 cities totaled 134.6 million square meters, down 41.6% month-on-month and 47.2% year-on-year [2]. - Second-hand home sales in 14 sample cities totaled 190.2 million square meters, down 8.3% month-on-month and 28.0% year-on-year [34]. 3. Credit Bond Issuance - This week, 12 credit bonds from real estate companies were issued, totaling 10.25 billion yuan, an increase of 5.2 billion yuan from the previous week [3]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on real estate-related stocks due to the ongoing policy-driven recovery and the potential for improved performance in quality real estate companies [4]. - Recommended stocks include major players in both H-shares and A-shares, as well as local state-owned enterprises and property management firms [4].

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market indices experienced significant declines this week, marking the worst week since early April, with the Nasdaq down 3.04%, the Dow Jones down 1.21%, and the S&P 500 down 1.63% [4] - The technology sector's pullback heavily impacted the Nasdaq, with the Wande American Technology Seven Giants Index falling 0.56% and Tesla dropping 3.71% [5][6] Government Shutdown Impact - The U.S. government shutdown has entered its 39th day, causing a vacuum of official data releases and escalating tensions between Democrats and Republicans, which has further impacted market sentiment [15][19] - The ongoing shutdown is projected to result in significant economic losses, with estimates suggesting a loss of $11 billion after six weeks and $14 billion after eight weeks [18] Federal Reserve Interest Rate Debate - Internal debates within the Federal Reserve regarding a potential interest rate cut in December have intensified, with a 66.5% probability of a 25 basis point cut and a 33.5% chance of maintaining current rates [22] - Fed officials express differing views on the necessity of a rate cut, with some advocating for a more aggressive approach to address economic pressures [21][22] Gold and Commodity Markets - Gold prices have shown volatility, currently trading around $4000 per ounce, with a slight weekly decline of 0.06% [11] - The oil market has also experienced fluctuations, with West Texas Intermediate crude oil closing at $59.84 per barrel, down 1.87% for the week, despite OPEC+ efforts to curb production [13]

Market Performance - The three major US stock indices experienced a cumulative decline this week, marking the worst week since early April, with the Nasdaq down 3.04%, the Dow down 1.21%, and the S&P 500 down 1.63% [3][2] - Technology stocks dragged down the Nasdaq, with the US Technology Seven Index falling 0.56% and Tesla dropping 3.71% [3][4] Gold Market - Gold prices showed volatility, rebounding to $4000 per ounce on November 7, with a cumulative decline of 0.06% for the week [7][6] - The gold market remains under pressure due to the strong US dollar and the ongoing government shutdown [6][7] Government Shutdown Impact - The US government shutdown has entered its 39th day, with negotiations between Democrats and Republicans stalled, leading to significant economic impacts [10][12] - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that if the shutdown lasts six weeks, economic losses could reach $11 billion, and $14 billion if it lasts eight weeks [12] Federal Reserve Interest Rate Debate - Internal debates within the Federal Reserve regarding a potential interest rate cut in December have intensified, with a 66.5% probability of a 25 basis point cut and a 33.5% chance of maintaining current rates [17][16] - Fed officials express differing views on the necessity of a rate cut, with some advocating for a more aggressive approach due to rising credit market pressures [16][13]

Group 1 - The Chinese government has announced export control measures on five categories of materials, including rare earths and lithium batteries, effective from November 8 [3] - The U.S. stock market ended mixed, with the Nasdaq down 0.21% and the S&P 500 up 0.13%, marking a cumulative decline of 3.04% and 1.63% for the week respectively [5] - The European stock indices closed lower, with Germany's DAX down 0.78% and France's CAC40 down 0.18% [6] Group 2 - The State Council of China issued an implementation opinion to accelerate the cultivation of application scenarios for new technologies and products, focusing on five key areas [7] - The People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves by 30,000 ounces in October, marking the 12th consecutive month of gold accumulation [7] - The Ministry of Finance outlined six key areas for fiscal policy execution, including boosting consumption and supporting employment [11] Group 3 - The Dutch government expects ASML China to soon resume chip supplies, following constructive talks with China [19] - Tesla's CEO Elon Musk indicated that the Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology is expected to receive full approval in China by early 2026 [19] - The State Administration for Market Regulation guided eight e-commerce platforms to sign a self-regulation agreement on food safety management [20] Group 4 - Huadian Energy announced plans to invest 12.043 billion yuan in a wind power project, aligning with national industrial policies [27] - The company Shanshui Technology reported a change in its actual controller following a divorce settlement, with the new controller being Wu Xinyan [24] - Eighty-one Steel received a notice from the China Securities Regulatory Commission regarding an investigation into information disclosure violations [25]

Core Viewpoint - The adjustment of commission rates by Beike's platform in Guangzhou has sparked discussions, with the commission for sellers increasing from 1% to 1.5%, while the buyer's commission remains unchanged. This change is perceived as part of a broader trend in the real estate brokerage market, where commission structures are becoming more flexible and competitive [1][5]. Group 1: Commission Structure Changes - Beike's internal sources indicate that the commission rates for second-hand housing transactions in Guangzhou have always suggested a 1.5% rate for both buyers and sellers, rather than being a recent change [1]. - The average commission rate for second-hand housing in major cities is around 2.2%, significantly lower than the 3% reference price, indicating a competitive market [2]. - In Guangzhou, commission rates typically range from 1.5% to 3%, with smaller agencies sometimes charging as low as 0.69% [4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Negotiation - The commission burden is shared among buyers and sellers in various proportions: 21% of transactions have buyers covering all costs, 50% have buyers covering the majority, and 29% are split evenly [3]. - The flexibility in commission rates allows for negotiations based on factors like property price and market conditions, leading to a non-standardized fee structure [4]. - The market is characterized by a high degree of competition, with some agents offering significantly lower fees to attract clients, such as the "Wu Qian Ge" group in Shanghai, which charges a flat service fee of 5,000 yuan [7][8]. Group 3: Regulatory and Competitive Landscape - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has encouraged a market-driven approach to brokerage fees, promoting shared costs between buyers and sellers [6]. - Recent trends show a rise in extreme competitive tactics among smaller agencies, including fixed low fees and full refunds on commissions, reflecting a price war in the industry [8]. - The overall pressure on second-hand housing prices remains significant, with a downward trend influenced by high listing volumes and weak market expectations [9].

Core Viewpoint - Beike-W (02423) shares have declined nearly 3%, currently trading at 41.02 HKD with a transaction volume of 214 million HKD, ahead of the board meeting scheduled for November 10 to review unaudited financial results for the three months ending September 30, 2025 [1] Financial Performance - JPMorgan has released a report indicating that the company's third-quarter performance is expected to be in line with expectations, but there are risks of downward adjustments for the fourth quarter and next year's financial forecasts [1] - The company is expected to achieve a shareholder return of 7% this year due to ongoing cost improvements and active share buybacks [1] Analyst Ratings - JPMorgan maintains an "Overweight" rating for Beike-W, despite lowering the earnings forecast for next year by 21% and adjusting the target price for H-shares from 57 HKD to 47 HKD [1]