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中国银河证券:钢铁行业盈利修复提速 龙头优势凸显
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-12-31 07:57
Group 1 - The steel industry has shown significant improvement in profitability, with effective cost control measures in place [1] - The demand side is adjusting due to real estate sector changes, while new infrastructure and renewable energy are supporting the demand for manufacturing steel [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued a plan for the steel industry, targeting an average annual value-added growth of around 4% from 2025 to 2026 [1] Group 2 - In the first three quarters of 2025, the steel sector achieved a net profit of 20.147 billion yuan, with a significant year-on-year turnaround [2] - The average sales gross margin for the industry increased to 12.35%, up 1.33 percentage points year-on-year, indicating improved profitability [1][2] - The third quarter of 2025 saw the steel sector achieve a net profit of 8.716 billion yuan, marking a 12.16% quarter-on-quarter increase and a significant year-on-year recovery [2] Group 3 - Leading steel companies have demonstrated stable revenue and a faster recovery in profitability, with Shougang Corporation reporting a net profit increase of 368.13% year-on-year [3] - The profitability improvement is broadening, with several companies in the sector achieving a turnaround in net profit [3] - Fangda Special Steel reported a sales gross margin of 10.44% and a net profit margin of 5.97%, highlighting the profitability advantages of high-end special steel products [3]
中国银河证券:国产EDA并购潮涌 AI+先进制程驱动“芯片之母”崛起
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-12-31 01:25
Core Viewpoint - The domestic EDA industry is currently experiencing a "policy-driven + technological breakthrough + high demand" triple resonance period, suggesting significant investment opportunities in core industry chain targets for the long term [1] Industry Positioning - EDA is a core technology for electronic system design automation, positioned at the upstream of the integrated circuit industry chain, influencing chip design efficiency, production costs, and performance, thereby impacting the global digital economy worth trillions of dollars [2] Market Dynamics - The global EDA market is highly concentrated, with three major players (Synopsys, Cadence, Siemens EDA) holding 74% market share. The global EDA market is projected to reach $18.3 billion by 2026 and exceed $30 billion by 2034. In China, the market size is expected to reach 22.2 billion yuan by 2026, with a growth rate of 20%, significantly higher than overseas [3] Growth Drivers - Three key factors are driving industry growth: 1. Domestic substitution is becoming essential due to U.S. export controls on EDA software, particularly for advanced process tools below 7nm, pushing domestic EDA companies to accelerate localization [4] 2. Technological and demand upgrades are emerging as design costs for advanced processes from 7nm to 3nm increase exponentially, with new demands arising from post-Moore era designs like Chiplet, 3D IC, and heterogeneous integration [4] 3. Industry consolidation is accelerating as the current Chinese EDA market is fragmented, with leading domestic EDA firms enhancing their product lines and overall strength through mergers and acquisitions [4]
中国银河证券:1月A股波动可能加大,风格倾向阶段性再平衡
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-12-31 01:11
Group 1 - The A-share market is entering a critical data validation period in January 2026, influenced by policy implementation, macro data, corporate performance, and liquidity changes, leading to increased volatility and a tendency for phase rebalancing [1] - Sectors that led in December, such as defense, 6G, and satellite internet, require performance or order validation to digest their gains, while themes with clear industrial trends like commercial aerospace and AI computing may still present active opportunities [1] - The strategic resource attributes of certain non-ferrous metal sectors, particularly strategic minor metals like antimony, tungsten, and rare earths, are being revalued by the market due to their essential role in technological breakthroughs and their strategic scarcity [1] Group 2 - Three key industry directions are highlighted: first, strategic resources and cyclical recovery sectors, focusing on upstream resource products with strategic scarcity, including industrial metals (copper), strategic minor metals, and energy metals (potash) [2] - Second, the focus is on technological self-reliance and new productivity sectors, emphasizing clear industrial trends and high visibility in performance for leading companies in areas such as AI computing, digital economy, semiconductor domestic substitution, and commercial aerospace [2] - Third, there is an emphasis on domestic demand recovery and structural improvement, with some domestic demand sectors having attractive valuations after prolonged adjustments [2]
专访中国银河证券首席经济学家章俊:新“新三样”领衔,构筑中国产业发展新基座
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao· 2025-12-30 23:13
Core Insights - The new "new three samples" (robots, artificial intelligence, and innovative drugs) represent a shift in China's economic focus from factor expansion to innovation-driven growth, emphasizing the importance of technological path definition and standard-setting rights [1][2][10] - The transition reflects a systemic reassessment of growth paradigms and competitive logic, moving away from traditional resource input models towards a focus on technological breakthroughs and original innovation [2][3] Group 1: New "New Three Samples" - Robots, AI, and innovative drugs are not merely a change in industrial preference but are seen as foundational technologies for future industries, providing a sustainable technological base for broader industrial evolution [10][11] - The core constraints for these new samples are not capital and labor but rather algorithm capabilities, computing power, foundational models, and clinical data accumulation [2][3] Group 2: Robotics Industry - China has the most comprehensive and responsive robot industry chain globally, with significant advantages in scale production and product iteration speed [4][5] - The country is at a critical juncture, poised to transition from "running alongside" to "leading" in the robotics sector, contingent on overcoming foundational technology and high-end segment challenges [5] Group 3: Artificial Intelligence - China leads globally in AI application but faces limitations in foundational technologies; vast data resources provide a unique advantage but are not a panacea for all technical shortcomings [6] - To advance from a partial lead to a comprehensive one, China must enhance investments in high-end chips, computing systems, and foundational algorithms while improving data marketization and international standard-setting participation [6] Group 4: Innovative Drugs - The rapid increase in outbound transactions indicates that Chinese pharmaceutical companies are gaining recognition in global markets, yet the proportion of original drugs remains low, highlighting the need for breakthroughs in original innovation and global development capabilities [7][8] - The industry's evolution is marked by a shift from generic and modified drugs to first-in-class and best-in-class assets, with improvements in target selection and early clinical validation capabilities [7][8] Group 5: Strategic Implications - The development direction of the new "new three samples" signifies a significant upgrade in the concept of industrial security, integrating technology, biological, and data security into a unified framework [3] - The strategic importance of these technologies extends beyond immediate industrial growth, shaping long-term competitive capabilities and national security [3][10]
ST思科瑞跌5.49% 2022上市募13.88亿中国银河保荐
Zhong Guo Jing Ji Wang· 2025-12-30 09:51
思科瑞9月20日发布关于实施其他风险警示暨停牌的公告。因思科瑞于2025年9月19日收到中国证 监会四川监管局下发的《行政处罚事先告知书》(川证监处罚字【2025】6号)。依据《事先告知书》 载明的内容,根据《上海证券交易所科创板股票上市规则(2025年4月修订)》相关规定,公司股票将 被实施其他风险警示。 A股股票简称由"思科瑞"变更为"ST思科瑞";扩位简称由"思科瑞微电子"变更为"ST思科瑞微电子"; 实施风险警示的起始日:2025年9月23日。 (责任编辑:徐自立) 思科瑞于2022年7月8日在上交所科创板上市,公开发行的股票数量为2500.00万股,发行价格为 55.53元/股,保荐人(主承销商)为中国银河证券股份有限公司,保荐代表人为陈召军、姚召五。 思科瑞首次公开发行股票募集资金总额为138,825.00万元,募集资金净额为125,250.66万元。思 科瑞最终募集资金净额较原计划多63,394.25万元。思科瑞于2022年7月5日披露的招股说明书显示,该 公司拟募集资金61,856.41万元,分别用于成都检测试验基地建设项目、环境试验中心建设项目、无锡 检测试验基地建设项目、研发中心建设项目、 ...
中国银河证券:首予越疆推荐评级 协作机器人出货量全球领先
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-12-30 06:33
中国银河(601881)证券发布研报称,基于协作机器人行业渗透率提升、越疆(02432)六轴类&商服端快 速拓展、具身智能加速布局的成长性,该行预测公司25-27年将实现营收5.03亿元/6.98亿元/9.10亿元, 增速34.6%/38.7%/30.3%。当前股价对应25-27年PS为25.2/18.1/13.9x,首次覆盖给予推荐评级。 中国银河证券主要观点如下: "机械臂+人形+多足"全形态具身机器人平台企业,技术全栈自研 越疆成立于2015年,是首个构建起协作机器人0.25-30kg负载全覆盖产品矩阵的企业,已推出人形双足/ 轮式和多足机器狗等具身智能产品。公司具备全栈自研能力,技术覆盖硬件平台、软件平台、核心算 法、智能操作全链条,并在安全、AI与机器学习、自主移动作业等领域持续突破,主导了7项国家重大 专项并参与制定多项国家机器人标准,累计取得专利数量位列行业第一。 全球协作机器人25-28年销量CAGR预计超30%,"卷技术"渐成趋势 协作机器人较传统工业机器人具备灵活部署、可适应多品种小批量生产需求等优势。但基于市场起步较 晚,当前其在工业机器人总销量渗透率尚低(24年10.7%),伴随柔性生 ...
中国银河证券:首予越疆(02432)推荐评级 协作机器人出货量全球领先
智通财经网· 2025-12-30 06:28
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the collaborative robot industry is expected to see significant growth, with the company projected to achieve revenues of 503 million, 698 million, and 910 million yuan from 2025 to 2027, reflecting growth rates of 34.6%, 38.7%, and 30.3% respectively [1] - The company, established in 2015, is the first to create a comprehensive product matrix for collaborative robots with payloads ranging from 0.25 to 30 kg, and has developed humanoid, wheeled, and multi-legged robots [2] - The global collaborative robot market is expected to grow at a CAGR of over 30% from 2025 to 2028, with the penetration rate in industrial robots projected to increase from 10.7% in 2024 to 21.3% by 2028 [3] Group 2 - The company leads in global collaborative robot shipments, ranking first in China and second worldwide, with a significant increase in the revenue share of six-axis products, which rose by 8.2 percentage points to 61.2% [4] - The company is actively entering the embodied intelligence sector, continuously iterating on core hardware and achieving substantial commercial progress with orders from major clients [5]
中国银河证券:宠食出口均价创新低 重点强调生猪养殖行业攻守兼备布局机会
智通财经网· 2025-12-30 01:25
Core Viewpoint - The report from China Galaxy Securities emphasizes the dual opportunities in the pig farming industry, highlighting the importance of breeding sows and farming efficiency, with expectations of a price decline in 2026 but potential rebounds in between [1] Group 1: Pig Farming Industry - In December 2025, the pig price was 11.81 yuan/kg, down 27.4% from the end of 2024 [3] - The breeding profit for self-bred and purchased piglets was -130 yuan/head and -163 yuan/head respectively, indicating ongoing industry losses that may accelerate capacity reduction [3] - As of the end of October, the number of breeding sows was 39.9 million, a decrease of 1.1% month-on-month [3] - The annual average pig price is expected to decline year-on-year, with variations based on the performance of leading pig companies in cost optimization [3] - The report suggests focusing on leading companies with strong cost control, healthy financials, and reasonable valuations [3] Group 2: Agricultural Index Performance - In December, the agricultural index underperformed the CSI 300, with a decline of 0.95% compared to a 2.56% increase in the CSI 300 [2] - Among sub-industry indices, animal health showed a relative increase of 5.35%, while aquaculture and farming sectors declined by 2.01% and 3.81% respectively [2] Group 3: Pet Food Industry - In November, China's pet food export value was 838 million yuan, down 3.81% year-on-year, with export volume at 33,400 tons, up 11.23% [4] - The average export price was 25.08 yuan/kg, marking a year-on-year decrease of 13.51% [4] - Cumulatively from January to November, the export value was 9.196 billion yuan, down 4.18%, with a total export volume of 323,600 tons, up 6.96% [4] - The average export price for the same period was 28.42 yuan/kg, down 10.41% year-on-year [4]
中国银河证券:政策技术业绩多轮驱动 关注卫星、通信及太空算力三大主线
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-12-29 01:35
这些进展为2026年可能出现的产业化拐点——即可复用火箭成熟落地、卫星组网全面加速、ToB/ToC应 用实现突破——奠定了坚实的技术基础与产业抓手。商业航天产业链上游主要包括火箭与卫星的核心零 部件及原材料,技术壁垒高,国产替代趋势明显;产业链中游包括运载火箭和卫星的研制、总装、测试 及发射服务;产业链下游是商业航天价值实现的最终环节,市场空间最为广阔,包括卫星运营、地面终 端和各类行业应用。在商业航天板块中,卫星通信是构建全域覆盖"太空信息网"的基础设施,是连接天 与地、实现全球无缝通信的管道。而太空算力则是在此基础上,赋予卫星在轨实时处理、分析和决策能 力的"智能大脑",它能将卫星从数据传输通道升级为智能节点,让商业航天提供更高时效性、更高价值 的服务。 投资建议 中国银河证券主要观点如下: 政策加码产业升维,国家战略与地方行动共推商业航天迈入壮大期 上海市人民政府印发了《关于支持长三角G60科创走廊策源地建设的若干措施》的通知,明确要加速航 空航天产业发展:围绕卫星制造与商业运营等产业链关键环节,引育上下游重点项目,给予最高5000万 元的经费支持;支持卫星互联网星座建设,对取得卫星通信基础电信业务经营 ...
中国银河证券:A股或迎接跨年“小躁动”行情
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-12-28 10:18
中国银河证券表示,A股市场在临近年末关口震荡上行,呈现出"小躁动"行情,截至周五,上证指数录 得八连阳。同时,行情呈现出流动性驱动特征,市场量能明显放大,周五全A成交额突破2万亿元。短 期来看,市场结构特征有望延续,量能或是行情的关键信号。热点板块个股分歧有所加大,重点关注核 心标的。美元指数趋弱与年末结汇需求推动下,人民币汇率在周内升破7.0关口。人民币资产吸引力提 升,积极因素正在进一步积累。展望后市,关注政策预期与产业趋势的催化机会,春季躁动行情值得期 待。2026年来看,A股市场有望呈现出向上动能。 ...