据最新消息，皮尤研究中心当地时间14日发布的调查结果显示，超六成美国民众反对美国总统特朗普的 关税政策。调查还显示，特朗普整体支持率为38%，61%受访者反对关税政策，较就任初期下降9个百 分点。 高盛集团日前发布研报称，美国消费者将承担美国关税政策成本中越来越大的份额。对此，特朗普回应 称，高盛经济学家"应该换人"，集团首席执行官应该改行做"打碟师（DJ）"。 近日，由世界贸易组织和国际货币基金组织联合开发的关税跟踪工具显示，截至8月7日，美国对全球所 有产品的贸易加权平均关税税率升至20.11%，大幅高于年初的2.44%。 数据显示，美国对全球所有商品的简单平均关税税率从年初的2.08%升至7日的17.39%。全球受影响贸 易额从年初的2884.6亿美元飙升至目前的2.747万亿美元。 特朗普：建议高盛"换专家" 日前，美国高盛集团发布研究报告认为，美国消费者将承担美国关税政策成本中越来越大的份额。高盛 认为，截至6月美国消费者已承担22%的关税成本。随着越来越多企业转嫁关税成本，预计到今年10 月，美国消费者承担的比例将达到67%。 特朗普当地时间12日在社交媒体平台"真实社交"上发文批评高盛首席执行官 ...

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 该行表示，回撤风险的飙升看起来与今年年初标普500指数上涨期间所见的飙升相似。在美国总统特朗普于4月2日宣布其 一系列关税（此举曾引发历史性的抛售）之前，高盛的股权不对称性框架就已标记出回撤风险升高。 分析师们说，"股价回撤的概率已经升高，且最近有所增加。通常，高于30%的水平会给出股市下行风险的信号，而目前 正在接近这一水平。" 音频由扣子空间生成 高盛表示，股市的连涨势头可能很快会戛然而止。 在该行给客户的一份报告中，它表示其"股权不对称性框架"正在发出一个信号，即未来股市下跌的风险已经增加。这是 高盛根据市场环境和最新经济数据评估股市的指标之一。 分析师们表示，根据其模型，标普500指数现在未来三个月内面临超过10%的回撤几率，未来12个月内回撤的几率则超过 20%。 高盛表示，股票下跌可能性大幅上升，这一情况与4月股市下跌前出现的涨幅变化类似。 该行表示，其模型之所以闪现下跌风险升高的信号，有两个原因： 市场波动性很低。 VIX指数已从"解放日"的峰值下跌了71%。 经济正在放缓。该行表示，要在低波动性环境中让股市表现良好，经济的动能需要保持强劲。但考虑到关税 带 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - **U.S. Inflation Analysis**: Bank of America (BofA), JPMorgan Chase (JPM) - **Chinese Credit Market**: Goldman Sachs (GS) - **Lithium Supply in China**: Goldman Sachs (GS) - **Global Natural Gas Market**: JPMorgan Chase (JPM) - **Chinese Baijiu Market**: Goldman Sachs (GS) - **Chinese IP Retail and Toys**: Goldman Sachs (GS) - **Tencent Music Entertainment (TME)**: Goldman Sachs (GS) Core Insights and Arguments U.S. Inflation Analysis 1. **CPI Performance**: In July, the overall CPI in the U.S. increased more than expected due to a rebound in energy prices, while core CPI growth was slightly below market expectations, indicating a counterbalancing effect between components [1][2][5] 2. **Energy Price Impact**: The significant rise in energy prices, particularly gasoline, was a major factor driving the overall CPI above expectations, attributed to rising crude oil prices and reduced refinery maintenance [2][6] 3. **Core Inflation Trends**: Core CPI's decline was primarily due to falling used car prices, easing service inflation, and a slowdown in rent increases, aligning with the Federal Reserve's expectations for a gradual cooling of core inflation [3][6] 4. **Market Predictions**: Despite short-term energy price volatility, the sustained decline in core inflation supports the Fed's current policy stance, with a slight increase in market expectations for rate cuts later in the year [6][10] Chinese Credit Market 1. **Historic Loan Decline**: In July, China's new RMB loans turned negative for the first time in 20 years, reflecting weak credit demand compounded by seasonal factors [14][18] 2. **Loan Demand Disparity**: There was a significant drop in medium to long-term loans for enterprises, indicating insufficient investment willingness, while residential loans remained weak due to poor real estate sales [15][18] 3. **Seasonal and Regulatory Effects**: The decline in credit data was influenced by seasonal repayment peaks and stricter financial regulations, which limited loan issuance [16][18] 4. **Policy Implications**: The negative loan growth, although partly driven by short-term factors, indicates insufficient credit demand amid a sluggish economic recovery, prompting expectations for increased counter-cyclical policy measures [18] Lithium Supply in China 1. **Supply Chain Overview**: China plays a crucial role in the global lithium supply chain, being the largest importer of lithium concentrate and a significant producer of lithium carbonate and hydroxide [24] 2. **Future Supply Growth**: Domestic production expansions and strategic partnerships with overseas mining companies are expected to drive lithium supply growth in the coming years [25] 3. **Supply Uncertainties**: The lithium supply faces uncertainties related to extraction technology efficiency, cost control, and geopolitical factors that could impact imports [26] 4. **Price Dynamics**: The interplay of strong demand and supply growth uncertainties will directly influence lithium price trends [27][28] Global Natural Gas Market 1. **Transition Role of Natural Gas**: Natural gas is viewed as a transitional energy source in the context of global energy decarbonization, with resilient demand in power generation and industrial sectors [30] 2. **Policy-Driven Demand Changes**: Carbon reduction policies may increase the cost of natural gas usage in certain industries, affecting long-term consumption patterns [31] 3. **Regional Market Dynamics**: The U.S. focuses on export and infrastructure upgrades, while Europe may see a significant decline in natural gas demand due to energy security policies [32] 4. **Investment Implications**: Policy trends will shape global natural gas supply chain investments, potentially diverting capital expenditures towards renewable energy and hydrogen sectors [33] Chinese Baijiu Market 1. **Policy and Market Balance**: Recent macro and industry policies aim to balance growth stimulation and risk control, impacting the demand recovery pace in the baijiu industry [35] 2. **Wholesale Price Trends**: Major high-end baijiu brands continue to experience weak wholesale prices, reflecting initial recovery stages in channel confidence and end-demand [36] 3. **Channel Dynamics**: The recovery in terminal sales is uneven, with cautious restocking by distributors due to demand uncertainties [37] 4. **Investment Outlook**: Despite short-term pressures, the long-term outlook for high-end brands remains resilient, with a focus on inventory reduction and policy effects on demand improvement [39] Chinese IP Retail and Toys 1. **Labubu Series Price Adjustment**: The premium level of the Labubu series has recently declined due to increased supply and waning consumer novelty, though overall demand remains high [41] 2. **Stable Prices for Other IPs**: Other major IPs have maintained stable prices, indicating sustained consumer interest in diverse IP offerings [42] 3. **Expansion of IP Collaborations**: Miniso is actively expanding collaborations with various IPs, enhancing product freshness and driving sales growth [43] 4. **Market Dynamics**: Offline channels remain core to IP retail, with significant traffic increases during peak seasons, while online platforms provide price references [44] 5. **Long-term Growth Drivers**: The long-term growth of the IP retail and toy market will depend on operational capabilities, content iteration, and channel optimization [45] Tencent Music Entertainment (TME) 1. **Performance Exceeds Expectations**: TME's Q2 performance surpassed market expectations, driven by growth in online music subscriptions and improved advertising revenue [46] 2. **User Growth**: The number of paid online music users continues to rise, with an increase in ARPPU, reflecting ongoing optimization in content supply and user engagement [47] 3. **Diversification of Revenue**: TME is actively expanding revenue sources beyond core music services, benefiting from advertising and deep collaborations with artists [48] 4. **Profitability Improvement**: Enhanced operational efficiency and cost control have led to improved profit margins, particularly in content and bandwidth costs [49] 5. **Upgraded Annual Guidance**: Based on strong Q2 results and upcoming activities, TME has raised its annual performance guidance, with medium to long-term growth reliant on diversified revenue and global strategies [50]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs increased its holdings in Nvidia, Microsoft, Tesla, Broadcom, and Meta during the second quarter [1] - Nvidia is currently the largest holding for Goldman Sachs, accounting for 4.1% of disclosed holdings [1] - The total market value of Goldman Sachs' investments grew by 17% in the second quarter, reaching $618.4 billion [1] Group 2 - The weight of technology stocks in Goldman Sachs' investment portfolio increased more than any other sector [1] - Sealsq and Karooooo are newly added technology stock holdings for Goldman Sachs [1] - The weight of the healthcare sector in Goldman Sachs' investment portfolio saw the largest decline [1] Group 3 - Nuvectis Pharma and Vincerx Pharma were removed from Goldman Sachs' healthcare stock holdings [1]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs increased its holdings in Nvidia, Microsoft, Tesla, Broadcom, and Meta during the second quarter, with significant positions in Nvidia, Microsoft, SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust, Apple, and Meta [1][3] - Nvidia is currently the largest holding for Goldman Sachs, accounting for 4.1% of disclosed holdings [5] - Emera is noted as the largest new stock purchase for the quarter [6] Group 2 - The total market value of Goldman Sachs' investments grew by 17% from the previous quarter, reaching $618.4 billion [4] - The weight of technology stocks in Goldman Sachs' portfolio increased more than any other sector, with Sealsq and Karooooo being new additions to the tech holdings [4] - The healthcare sector saw the largest decrease in weight within Goldman Sachs' holdings, with Nuvectis Pharma and Vincerx Pharma being removed from the portfolio [4]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs is facilitating a capital raise for Millennium Management, aiming to sell 10% to 15% of the company at a valuation of approximately $14 billion, with a fundraising target of up to $2 billion [1] Group 1: Fundraising Details - Millennium Management, led by Izzy Englander, is seeking to sell equity with a minimum subscription threshold of $1 million and a maximum of $20 million [1] - The total fundraising could reach $2 billion, with about half of the funds coming from Goldman Sachs' Petershill division and the remainder from existing large institutional clients such as sovereign wealth funds [1] Group 2: Investor Outreach - Goldman Sachs has begun extensive outreach to potential investors, including high-net-worth individuals and employees from Millennium Management's main competitors [1] - The collaboration with Petershill indicates Millennium Management's strategy to broaden its potential buyer base from institutions to wealthy individuals [1]

在华尔街与高盛持相似观点的同行并非少数。CNBC网站14日报道称，尽管投资者对周二相对温和的消 费者价格指数报告表示欢迎，但经济学家预计通胀的最大影响尚未显现。摩根大通经济学家费罗利表 示："关税可能会使美国GDP增速下降1%，并使通胀上升1%—1.5%，且部分影响已经显现。鉴于今年 关税涨幅远超美国战后以来的任何时期，其对消费者价格的传导程度仍存在很大不确定性。"瑞银高级 经济学家罗斯也说："我们预计，随着企业将更高成本转嫁给消费者，通胀将继续呈逐步上升趋 势。"（倪浩） 高盛经济学家大卫·梅里克周三在接受美国消费者新闻与商业频道（CNBC）采访时表示，不管特朗普是 否有异议，高盛对研究结论充满信心，"我们坚持这份研究结果，"梅里克说，"如果最近的关税与2月份 最早加征的关税呈现相同模式，那么到秋季时，我们估计消费者将承担大约三分之二的成本。" 此前特朗普坚称关税正带来数万亿美元收入，辩称支付大部分账单的是外国企业和政府而非美国家庭。 周二他指责高盛在市场影响和关税效应方面始终判断错误。 【环球时报综合报道】据美国《财富》杂志13日报道，面对美国总统特朗普的公开声讨，华尔街投行高 盛经济学家当地时间周三在回 ...

格隆汇8月15日｜据13F文件披露：索罗斯二季度清仓阿斯利康和摩根大通，增持英伟达、Snowflake、 KKR，减持谷歌A、高盛等。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs' report indicates that American consumers will bear an increasing share of the costs associated with U.S. tariff policies, with a significant rise expected in the coming months [1] Group 1: Consumer Impact - As of June, American consumers have already absorbed 22% of the tariff costs [1] - It is projected that by October, this percentage will increase to 67% as more companies pass on the tariff costs to consumers [1] Group 2: Corporate Response - In response to Goldman Sachs' findings, President Trump suggested that the economists at Goldman Sachs should be replaced, and he humorously proposed that the CEO should consider a career as a DJ [1]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs increased its holdings in Nvidia, Microsoft, Tesla, Broadcom, and Meta during the second quarter [1] - The firm has significant positions in Nvidia, Microsoft, SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust, Apple, and Meta [1] - Goldman Sachs also initiated a new investment in Emera Inc. [1]