February 8, 2026 03:47 PM GMT Software | North America Software Gut Check – AI IS Software Peak uncertainty has severely impacted Software multiples, as investor worry about potential AI impacts. GenAI fundamentally expands the capabilities of enterprise software – presenting opportunities along with risks, with the pullback giving attractive entry points in well positioned incumbents. Key Takeaways Setting the Stage – The AI Opportunity in Software. Generative AI represents the continuing expansion of what ...

Melius Research 周一将微软评级从"买入"下调至"持有"，理由是担心资本支出以及微软旗下的 Copilot 品牌产品——这是其向办公室职员销售 AI 软件工具 的主要载体。在此之前，Stifel 在上周末也进行了类似的下调，分析师对微软 Azure 云计算业务的增长速度发出了警告。 Melius 分析师 Ben Reitzes 在报告中写道："由于受到 Anthropic 的 Cowork 等产品的冲击，微软强大的 365 套件可能会面临挑战，甚至可能需要免费赠送 Copilot 以保持竞争力——这将损害其利润最丰厚的'生产力'部门的增长和利润率。这一现实将消耗 Azure 的内部产能，从而限制该业务超预期的表现。" 此次评级下调正值投资者对整个软件行业长期前景愈发紧张之际，来自 Anthropic 等公司的 AI 工具被视为一种主要的颠覆力量，并可能成为增长的永久性 阻力。自 1 月底以来，高盛的一篮子软件股已下跌超过 14%。 周一，微软股价一度上涨 2.4%，但较 10 月份的高点仍下跌了 24% 以上。 智通财经APP注意到，由于华尔街对软件股面临人工智能潜在颠覆的担忧日益加剧，微软(M ...

智通财经APP注意到，由于华尔街对软件股面临人工智能潜在颠覆的担忧日益加剧，微软(MSFT.US) 的股票在不到一周的时间内遭到了第二次评级下调。 微软评级被再次下调 Melius Research 周一将微软评级从"买入"下调至"持有"，理由是担心资本支出以及微软旗下的 Copilot 品牌产品——这是其向办公室职员销售 AI 软件工具 的主要载体。在此之前，Stifel 在上周末也进行了类似的下调，分析师对微软 Azure 云计算业务的增长速度发出了警告。 Melius 分析师 Ben Reitzes 在报告中写道："由于受到 Anthropic 的 Cowork 等产品的冲击，微软强大的 365 套件可能会面临挑战，甚至可能需要免费赠送 Copilot 以保持竞争力——这将损害其利润最丰厚的'生产力'部门的增长和利润率。这一现实将消耗 Azure 的内部产能，从而限制该业务超预期的表现。" 此次评级下调正值投资者对整个软件行业长期前景愈发紧张之际，来自 Anthropic 等公司的 AI 工具被视为一种主要的颠覆力量，并可能成为增长的永久性 阻力。自 1 月底以来，高盛的一篮子软件股已下跌超过 14%。 ...

近年来，大多数大型科技公司开始通过分红和回购股票的方式将现金返还给股东。 例如，谷歌和 Meta Platforms 都这么做，但今年可能会很难做到这一点，因为旨在扩充用于人工智能的计算能力的 资本支出几乎完全耗尽了其运营产生的现金流。 ：两者已经开始缩减股票回购。 然而，取消分红可能会比较棘手，因为两家公司都是在 2024 年才开始发放 近年来，大多数大型科技公司开始通过分红和回购股票的方式将现金返还给股东。 例如，谷歌和 Meta Platforms 都这么做，但今年可能会很难做到这一点，因为旨在扩充用于人工智能的计算能力的 资本支出几乎完全耗尽了其运营产生的现金流。 ：两者已经开始缩减股票回购。 然而，取消分红可能会比较棘手，因为两家公司都是在 2024 年才开始发放股息，这使得它们的股票对投资者更具 吸引力。 亚马逊在 11 月发行了 150 亿美元债券，增强了其现金状况，截至 12 月 31 日其持有现金为 1230 亿美元，这 给了它相当大的缓冲。 ：不会遇到同样的问题，因为它自 2022 年以来就没有回购股票，也从未支付过股息。 不过，据 TheInformation报道源头信息联 系 微 信W ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the financial reports of major tech companies, highlighting a shift from AI enthusiasm to concerns over capital expenditures and cash flow issues [4][5] - Despite impressive revenue figures, stock prices for Amazon, Microsoft, and Google fell significantly after their earnings reports, indicating market skepticism [4] Capital Expenditure Analysis - Amazon's projected capital expenditure for 2026 is $200 billion, exceeding analyst expectations of $144.7 billion and up 60% from its 2025 estimate of $125 billion [8] - Microsoft reported a quarterly capital expenditure of $37.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of approximately 66% [9] - Alphabet's capital expenditure for Q4 2025 is estimated at $27.9 billion, with plans for 2026 expenditures between $175 billion and $185 billion, roughly double that of 2025 [9] - Overall, the five major tech companies are expected to have a combined capital expenditure of $600 billion to $700 billion in 2026 [11] Free Cash Flow Concerns - Amazon's operating cash flow over the past 12 months was $139.5 billion, a 20% increase, but its free cash flow plummeted 71% to $11.2 billion [12] - Microsoft reported an operating cash flow of approximately $35.76 billion for the quarter, with free cash flow significantly below market expectations [13] - The trend indicates that while operating cash flows are strong, massive capital expenditures are severely compressing free cash flows across these companies [14] Depreciation and Future Earnings Impact - Tech companies are extending the depreciation periods of their assets to improve short-term profits, which may lead to increased depreciation costs impacting future earnings [15][16] - Microsoft and Alphabet have extended the useful life of their servers and network equipment, which could result in concentrated depreciation costs affecting profitability in the next 3-5 years [15][16] Market Sentiment and AI Investment Risks - The article describes the current AI arms race as a gamble, with significant upfront investments made by tech companies without immediate profitability [18] - Analysts express concerns that OpenAI's funding model may lead to financial strain, as it relies heavily on external capital for its operations [20][21] - The complexity of cloud service contracts and the reliance on future growth projections create potential risks for tech companies and their clients [21][24] Customer Impact and Business Strategy - Microsoft has adjusted its pricing strategies, reducing long-term discounts and increasing bundling of AI services, which may affect customer choices and costs [26] - Companies must consider the total lifecycle costs of AI applications, including cloud resources and integration expenses, as they navigate the evolving landscape [26][27]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the competition in the AI market, particularly focusing on the contrasting strategies of Alibaba and Google, highlighting Alibaba's unique approach with its Qianwen App and its implications for the AI landscape [1][4]. Group 1: AI Market Competition - The AI market is increasingly viewed as a contest of marketing expenditures, particularly illustrated by the recent "red envelope war" during the Spring Festival, where companies compete for user engagement through financial incentives [1]. - Alibaba's Qianwen App launched a significant promotional campaign, achieving over 10 million orders within 9 hours, indicating a successful marketing strategy that diverges from traditional competition [1][13]. - The article posits that the success of Alibaba's Qianwen App is a result of long-term strategic investments made years prior, rather than just a short-term marketing victory [1][9]. Group 2: Strategic Comparisons - Google has adopted a full-stack self-research strategy, investing heavily in various aspects of AI, including hardware and software, while Microsoft has taken a dual approach, relying on partnerships and third-party resources [2][3]. - As of Q4 2025, Microsoft's market value has decreased by over 30%, contrasting with Google's market value, which has approached $4 trillion, highlighting the effectiveness of Google's strategy [2]. - Alibaba is positioned as the closest competitor to Google in the full-stack AI space, with significant investments planned for AI infrastructure and capabilities [4][5]. Group 3: Future Projections - Alibaba plans to invest 380 billion yuan in AI capital expenditures over the next three years, with an additional 100 billion yuan recently announced, indicating a strong commitment to AI development [5]. - The company aims to redefine the AI landscape by creating a new operating system based on large models, which will facilitate the development of numerous applications through natural language [4]. - The competitive landscape is expected to shift from performance and customer acquisition to a broader ecosystem competition, encompassing computing power, cloud services, and user engagement [9][14].

Key Takeaways Cloud computing remains a dominant investment theme, particularly so during the AI era. For those seeking exposure, Zacks Thematic Screens can lend a hand. Zacks Thematic Screens lets you dive into 30 dynamic investment themes shaping the future. Whether you're interested in cutting-edge technology, renewable energy, or healthcare innovations, our themes help you invest in ideas that matter to you..Let’s take a closer look at the ‘Cloud Computing’ theme and analyze a stock within, namely Micro ...

2026年2月9日，截至收盘，沪指涨1.41%，报收4123.09点；深成指涨2.17%，报收14208.44点；创业板 指涨2.98%，报收3332.77点。科创半导体ETF（588170）涨2.25%，半导体设备ETF华夏（562590）涨 2.24%。 隔夜外盘：截至收盘，道琼斯工业平均指数涨0.04%；纳斯达克综合指数涨0.90%；标准普尔500种股票 指数涨0.47%。费城半导体指数涨1.42%，恩智浦半导体涨2.05%，美光科技跌2.84%，ARM涨0.74%， 应用材料涨2.50%，微芯科技跌2.10%。 东海证券指出，2026年，美国四大CSP资本支出合计预计超过6700亿美元，同比大幅增长超60%，AI基 础设施建设仍处于大规模投入阶段。随着AI持续向终端渗透、AIAgent技术不断演进等趋势的推动，未 来对算力的需求预计将呈现爆发式增长。 相关ETF：公开信息显示， 科创半导体ETF（588170）及其联接基金（A类：024417；C类：024418） 跟踪上证科创板半导体材料设备主题指数，囊括科创板中 半导体设备（60%）和半导体材料（25%）细 分领域的硬科技公司。 半导体设备和材料行 ...

2026年，科技公司的财报发布日总是伴随着投资者两种反应： 先为AI相关业务的持续增长松 一口气，再为资本支出（CAPEX）的巨大规模倒吸一口凉气。 近日，云巨头微软、谷歌、亚马逊相继发出最新季度财报。AI带来的需求是真实且汹涌的，最 直接的落点在云业务上，微软Azure的增长加速至39%、谷歌云狂奔48%、AWS创下十三个季 度以来最快的24%增速。 本季财报最毋庸置疑的亮点，是三家公司的云业务均交出了超出市场预期的答卷。 谷歌云正在摆脱"AI时代追赶者"的标签，成为一家能同时实现高速增长和高利润率的云服务 商。 记者丨 董静怡 实习生朱丙淇 编辑丨巫燕玲 但资本市场更关注的是它们为未来投下的巨额赌注。 微软 单季资本支出已达创纪录的375亿美元，同比增长66%； 谷歌 公布2026年资本支出计划为1750亿至1850亿美元，几乎是2025年的两倍； 亚马逊 宣布将在2026年投入高达2000亿美元，在几个科技巨头里排在首位。 当资本开支被同步大幅抬高，利润率与自由现金流的短期成色将更频繁地影响股价弹性。财报 发布后，微软股价盘后一度下跌超8%，谷歌跌幅超7%，亚马逊下跌超过11%。 过去一年， 这三家公司 ...

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones up 0.04%, the Nasdaq up 0.9%, and the S&P 500 up 0.47% [1] - Major technology stocks saw significant gains, with Oracle rising over 9%, Microsoft and Broadcom up over 3%, and Nvidia and Meta up over 2% [1] Sector Performance - Cryptocurrency mining companies, precious metals, and non-ferrous metals led the gains, with Vista Gold up over 14%, Hut 8 up over 7%, and Pan American Silver up over 6% [1] - Other notable performers included Alcoa and Royal Gold, both rising over 5%, and Southern Copper up over 4% [1] - Retail and insurance brokerage sectors faced declines, with Macy's and Kohl's both down over 5%, and the American Reinsurance Group down over 2% [1] Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose 0.12%, with notable gains in Chinese concept stocks such as Kingsoft Cloud, Pony.ai, and JinkoSolar, which rose up to 3.79% [1] - Other gainers included Zai Lab up 2.44%, Huazhu up 1.66%, while companies like Yum China, XPeng, Ctrip, Bilibili, NIO, Li Auto, and New Oriental experienced declines, with New Oriental down 4.24% [1]