Core Viewpoint - Stephen Curry's recent footwear choices during games have become a focal point for fans and brands alike, especially following his split with Under Armour, indicating potential future partnerships and commercial strategies [1][6]. Brand Engagement - Curry debuted as a free agent on November 16, wearing Nike's Kobe 6 "Mambacita" during warm-ups, and subsequently showcased various brands including Reebok, Nike, and Li-Ning in games, reflecting a strategic exploration of potential partnerships [3][4]. - His choice of the Nike Kobe series serves as a tribute to Kobe Bryant and a subtle message to Nike, given their past contentious negotiations in 2013 that led him to sign with Under Armour instead [3][4]. Brand Interaction - Wearing Reebok's "Shaqnosis" and Li-Ning's Wade sneakers indicates active engagement with these brands, with Reebok confirming discussions with Curry's team shortly after his appearance in their shoes [4]. - The repeated selection of Li-Ning products suggests a broader consideration beyond the North American market, hinting at Curry's interest in global brand partnerships that can enhance his influence [4]. Market Dynamics - Curry's current situation differs from past athletes like Kobe and Wade, as he is nearing the end of his career, making the search for a new brand partner more complex, focusing on long-term brand viability rather than just immediate performance [6][8]. - Analysts have noted that Curry's brand, estimated to generate between $75 million to $100 million annually, has significantly declined from its peak, raising questions about his market appeal and the effectiveness of his signature line [7][8]. Future Considerations - Brands interested in partnering with Curry must consider not only his remaining playing years but also his potential post-retirement influence, as seen in successful cases like Kobe and Wade, who maintained strong brand identities after their careers [8][9]. - The ongoing footwear rotation by Curry is not merely a showcase but a strategic dialogue with potential brands, emphasizing the need for a partnership that can sustain and grow the Curry Brand beyond his playing days [9].

Core Viewpoint - On Holding is adopting a full-price strategy for the holiday season, opting out of Black Friday discounts to reinforce its premium brand positioning [1][2]. Company Performance - On Holding reported Q3 net sales of 794.4 million Swiss francs ($994.3 million) and a net income of 118.9 million francs, significantly up from 30.5 million francs in the same quarter last year [4]. - The company raised its full-year sales guidance from 2.91 billion francs to 2.98 billion francs, indicating strong performance and optimism [4]. Competitive Landscape - Competitors like Adidas and Nike are engaging in early Black Friday promotions, contrasting with On's strategy [2]. - Nike anticipates a decrease in fiscal Q2 revenue and a drop in gross margins, with Q1 net income down 31% year over year [5]. - HOKA, owned by Deckers, is also promoting discounted holiday gifts, reflecting a different approach compared to On [3]. Market Trends - Deckers' brands, HOKA and UGG, saw sales increases of 11.1% and 10.1% year over year, while other brands under Deckers experienced a 26.5% decrease [7]. - Tariffs are influencing sales guidance adjustments for Nike and Deckers, as rising prices are affecting consumer purchasing behavior [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the textile and apparel industry, highlighting investment opportunities in new consumption and global manufacturing [4]. Core Insights - The textile and apparel sector has shown resilience, with the SW textile and apparel index outperforming the SW All A index by 0.3 percentage points during the week of November 17 to November 21, 2025 [5]. - The report emphasizes the potential for growth in the outdoor sports segment, driven by rising demand and favorable market conditions, particularly for brands like Nike and Adidas as they recover from previous challenges [11]. - The report identifies key investment opportunities in various segments, including high-performance outdoor apparel, discount retail, personal care, and sleep economy products [16]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The SW textile and apparel index decreased by 4.8%, while the SW apparel and home textile index fell by 4.1%, both outperforming the SW All A index [5]. - Retail sales for clothing, shoes, and textiles reached 1,205.3 billion yuan from January to October, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.5% [4]. Export and Pricing Trends - In October, China's textile and apparel exports amounted to 22.26 billion USD, a year-on-year decline of 12.6%, with specific declines in textile and apparel categories [40]. - The report notes a slight decrease in cotton prices, with the national cotton price B index at 14,737 yuan per ton, down 0.1% [41]. Key Investment Opportunities - The report highlights the ongoing price increase in Australian wool, with the index at 983 cents per kilogram, showing a year-on-year increase of 32.3% [10]. - The outdoor sports segment is expected to accelerate growth, particularly for brands like Amer Sports, which reported a 30% increase in revenue for Q3 2025 [13]. - The report suggests focusing on companies like Bosideng in the winter apparel sector and identifies potential recovery opportunities in the women's clothing segment [14]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in domestic demand in 2026, driven by younger consumer trends and new consumption patterns [16]. - It emphasizes the importance of global tariff negotiations and their impact on the manufacturing sector's competitiveness [17].

Core Points - The Supreme Court hearing on November 5, 2025, posed significant challenges to Trump's tariff policies, with conservative justices questioning the legality of his actions [1][3] - The outcome of the hearing could lead to substantial financial implications for the U.S., potentially resulting in a refund of $750 billion to $1 trillion in tariffs [4][6] - The tariffs have adversely affected U.S. businesses, with companies reporting significant financial losses due to increased costs [6][8] Group 1: Legal and Political Implications - Chief Justice Roberts emphasized that the power to levy taxes belongs to Congress, not the President, highlighting the constitutional principle regarding taxation [3] - Justices appointed by Trump, including Gorsuch and Barrett, raised critical questions about the extent of presidential power in declaring emergencies to impose tariffs [3] - The hearing has shifted market expectations regarding the likelihood of Trump's tariff policies being upheld, dropping from 40% to 27% [3] Group 2: Economic Impact on Businesses - Companies like Learning Resources and Terry Precision Cycling reported significant financial losses due to tariffs, with the latter expecting a loss of $1.2 million by 2026 [4][6] - The tariffs have led to increased costs for major corporations, including Nike, which warned of a potential $1.5 billion loss due to tariffs [6][8] - The Senate passed a resolution to terminate Trump's global tariff policy, signaling a shift towards anti-tariff sentiment [6] Group 3: Global Trade Dynamics - The tariffs have prompted retaliatory measures from other countries, including Canada and Mexico, which have imposed their own tariffs on U.S. goods [8] - The WTO expressed concerns about the potential for a trade war to have catastrophic effects on the global economy, reminiscent of the 1930s [8] - Companies are adjusting their strategies to mitigate the impact of tariffs, with some committing to increased investments in the U.S. to secure tariff exemptions [8]

Product Innovation - Nike's latest jacket features an inflatable system designed for Olympians [1] Company Strategy - Nike CEO Elliott Hill is trying to reinvigorate the company [1]

Core Insights - Shake Shack's stock has declined over 40% since its peak in July, primarily due to slower-than-expected growth reported in Q2 2025, with same-store sales growth dropping to 1.8% from 4% year-over-year [1][8] - The company has shown signs of recovery in Q3 2025, with same-store sales growth accelerating to 4.9% and revenue reaching $367.4 million, a 16% increase year-over-year [8] - Analysts suggest that the current dip in Shake Shack's stock presents a buying opportunity, with a forward EV/EBITDA multiple of 23x deemed justifiable given the company's growth prospects [9] Company Overview - Shake Shack originated as a hot dog cart in Madison Square Park in 2004 and has since expanded to over 630 locations globally, with 405 in the US and 225 in international markets [3] - The menu includes a variety of burgers, chicken sandwiches, hot dogs, and milkshakes, catering to diverse customer preferences [2] Financial Performance - Q2 2025 results showed strong revenue but disappointing same-store sales growth, leading to a significant stock price drop [1] - In contrast, Q3 2025 results indicated a recovery, with revenue exceeding forecasts and a non-GAAP EPS of 36 cents, beating expectations by 5 cents [8] Analyst Sentiment - Loop Capital analyst Alton Stump highlights Shake Shack's strong near-term growth prospects, suggesting that recent concerns over slowing comparable sales growth are overblown [9] - The stock currently has a Hold consensus rating, with 7 Buys, 11 Holds, and 2 Sells, and an average target price indicating a potential 32% gain over the next year [9]

Product Innovation - Nike's latest jacket features an inflatable system designed for Olympians [1] Leadership & Strategy - Nike CEO Elliott Hill is working to reinvigorate the company [2]

Core Insights - The competitive landscape between NIKE Inc. and Steven Madden Ltd. highlights their distinct market positions, with NIKE as a leader in performance sports and Steven Madden focusing on fashion-forward casual footwear [1][2] NIKE Inc. (NKE) - NIKE's investment case is supported by its significant scale and leadership in the global athleticwear market, with Q1 fiscal 2026 revenue reaching $11.72 billion, indicating the effectiveness of its "Win Now" strategy [3][4] - The brand experienced a more than 20% surge in running sales, and North America saw an 11% increase in wholesale, maintaining its status as a leading sportswear brand among younger consumers [4][5] - NIKE's strategic initiatives include a new Sport Offense structure aimed at enhancing product innovation and cultural relevance, alongside efforts to reset classic franchises and focus on key growth categories [5][6] - Despite challenges such as digital softness and tariff pressures leading to a gross margin decline to 42.2%, NIKE's management remains confident in returning to double-digit margins over time [6] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NIKE's fiscal 2026 sales suggests a modest year-over-year growth of 0.8%, with EPS expected to decline by 24.1% [12] Steven Madden Ltd. (SHOO) - Steven Madden presents a differentiated investment case with strong brand equity and diversified category exposure, achieving a 6.9% revenue growth in Q3 and expanding gross margin to 43.4% [8][11] - The company benefits from a multi-brand portfolio and a robust presence with 397 stores and seven e-commerce sites, appealing to Gen Z and millennial consumers [7][10] - Product innovation and disciplined pricing strategies are driving demand, particularly in high-demand categories like boots and casual footwear [9][11] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Steven Madden's 2025 sales indicates a year-over-year growth of 10.3%, with EPS expected to decline by 40.1% [14] - Steven Madden's stock has increased by 37% over the past three months, reflecting improving analyst sentiment and expectations for continued growth [8][16] Valuation and Performance Comparison - NIKE shares have declined by 17.8% in the past three months, while Steven Madden's stock has seen significant growth [16] - NIKE is trading at a forward P/E multiple of 30.29X, slightly below its five-year median, indicating a potential opportunity for long-term investors [18][19] - In contrast, Steven Madden's forward P/E multiple is at 18.32X, above its historical median, suggesting elevated market expectations for continued recovery and growth [18][20] - The analysis indicates that NIKE is viewed as a stable leader, while Steven Madden is perceived as a growth story with higher expectations [21] Conclusion - NIKE remains a global icon with unmatched scale, but the near-term outlook favors Steven Madden due to stronger price performance and improving analyst expectations [25][26] - Steven Madden's relative affordability and operational improvements strengthen its investment case, making it a compelling opportunity for growth-focused investors [26][27]

Core Viewpoint - Nike's stock has entered a "death cross" technical formation, indicating challenging times for the sneaker manufacturer [1] Group 1 - The "death cross" is a pessimistic technical indicator that suggests a potential decline in stock performance [1]

Core Insights - The engineering group has raised its full-year guidance for the second time this year, indicating strong performance in the first half of the year [1] Group 1 - Shares of the engineering group experienced a significant increase following the announcement of the raised guidance [1]